Pure Horserace: Thompson Waltzes In

Actor (and former Senator) Fred Thompson ought to be a natural presidential candidate. After all, successful politicians and actors share a mastery of timing, an intangible instinct of doing just the right thing at just the right moment. Perhaps we're building up to some dramatic point, but after months of hemming, hawing and "testing the waters," Thompson's eventual entry into the race may be greeted with as many shrugs as leaps of joy by Republican primary voters.

Great excitement and buzz greeted Thompson back on June 1, when he established his initial committee to explore a presidential bid. At the time, it was hinted by some close to the effort that Thompson may formally enter the race sometime in early July. When that date slipped, it was whispered that August was the month which would usher in the campaign. Now, we're tentatively expecting an unveiling in early September.

It certainly appears likely that Thompson is nearing the end of his exploration phase. He's begun giving high-profile interviews to the likes of Washington journalism dean David Broder, and today makes his first trek to the oh-so-important early state of Iowa.

But even this belated coming-out party is showing signs of a less electrifying and transformational entry than was anticipated nearly three months ago. According to a preview of his trip by the Des Moines Register, Thompson's trip will be short (a single day) and with minimal public exposure — he'll host several closed events with GOP officials and activists, do radio and newspaper interviews and tour the state fair.

Since Thompson began his dance last spring, the rest of the GOP field has been hard at work, both in the early primary states and around the nation, gobbling up money, support and participating in televised debates. Meanwhile, Thompson has appeared to struggle in getting his operation off the ground. His June fund-raising total came in at just over $3.4 million (less than the $5 million goal) and he has already changed his de facto campaign manager twice.

To be sure, Thompson and those around him have had to do a lot of work in a very short period of time in order to prepare a formidable presidential campaign. Whether that has been done at the expense of missing his moment won't be known for a couple months at the earliest. Timing, after all, is much more art than science. — Vaughn Ververs


Playing Into Obama's Hand: Defining your opponent might be on the first page of a handbook on how to win an election. For awhile, in the race for the Democratic nomination, Hillary Clinton seemed to have a good handle on doing just that to her biggest threat, Barack Obama. The idea that Obama didn't have the experience to be president gained more and more play in the press, especially after he said during a recent debate that he'd be willing to meet with world leaders hostile to the United States.

Yet that line now seems to be losing some of its steam, even after Obama said he would take action to root out terrorists in Pakistan without backing from President Pervez Musharraf. And now the new narrative in the Democratic race revolves around the role of lobbyists and special interests in government, particularly in a future Democratic administration.

Some credit for this shift should go to Obama, who didn't back down from his statements about foreign policy and even received compliments on his stance on Pakistan from the Republican front-runner, Rudy Giuliani. But what really allowed the conversation to move from international affairs to ethics was a defense of lobbyists made by Clinton at the YearlyKos bloggers convention earlier this month. Since then, Obama — with an assist from John Edwards — has successfully kept the spotlight on the issue.

Today, in an interview with The Associated Press, Obama says that Clinton "doesn't recognize the problem" caused by lobbyists and fundraising in Washington. His words come on the heels of pledges made by Obama to allow the public to review bills before he signs them and to disclose all meetings with lobbyists in his administration.

Edwards has gotten in on the action, too, hoping to do damage to both Clinton and Obama, who lead him in most national and state polls outside of Iowa. In a fundraising appeal sent to supporters today, Edwards says he's never accepted money from "Washington lobbyists." While noting that Obama, like him, isn't accepting money from political action committees or federal lobbyists, he also urges Obama to join him in signing a letter to Democratic campaign committees asking them to refuse donations from lobbyists.

The issue surely appeals to Democratic primary voters who are seeking as stark a contrast as possible with the Bush administration, which they feel has conducted a large part of its business behind closed doors and allowed lobbyists to dictate much of its policies. But it can also be effective among independents and disenchanted Republicans — all of whom, it's worth noting, can vote in New Hampshire's open Democratic primary. Obama and Edwards are both suggesting that if Clinton were president, lobbyists would continue to wield disproportionate influence. But Obama, more than any other hopeful, is running as the "change candidate" in this election, which means a focus on this issue benefits him the most.

In effect, this takes what Clinton says is her greatest strength, experience, and turns it against her by attempting to portray her as a business-as-usual politician. And instead of promoting herself, it makes Clinton defend herself. She may do that effectively, but her time would be better spent controlling the conversation, rather than responding to it. — David Miller


Meddlesome Michigan: The latest chapter in the ongoing saga known as the 2008 primary calendar comes out of Michigan, where, according to Marc Ambinder's blog, a bipartisan deal has been struck to move the state's primary to Jan. 15. The state had already been expected to vote Feb. 5, but apparently wants to stand out from the crowd of states already holding contests on that date.

We will not get into the various dominoes that would start to fall should Michigan opt to vote in the middle of January — with the dust still unsettled from the South Carolina GOP's move (see below), there's simply too much flux right now to make any predictions. But we can safely say that spending January in Michigan is no one's idea of a good time. As if having to go to New Hampshire wasn't bad enough. — David Miller


Staying Put: Last week the South Carolina Republican Party — to ensure it held the first-in-the-South Republican primary — announced plans to move its primary to Jan. 19 in response to Florida moving its primary to Jan. 29. Yet the state's Democratic Party, which is still planning on holding its primary the same day as Florida, says it won't budge. Why? To find out, CBSNews.com's David Miller interviewed Joe Werner, executive director of the South Carolina Democratic Party. He believes Florida won't dilute South Carolina's impact on the process because of the significant differences between the two states. To learn why Werner is so confident, read this installment of Political Players — the last before September.


Editor's note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.
By Vaughn Ververs and David Miller

[jimbo554]

Thompson makes Attila the Hun look progressive.

[frb01]

Certainly there is a Republican somewhere, probably in his or her 40''s or 50''s who has some type of political experience, who is eager to run for President. There are some viable candidates in the field, but this is still a nomination up for grabs. Has to be a Republican out there to challenge Rudy. Hopefully it would be a woman.

[sgtrds]

I can''t wait for him to be giving a speech, then stopping and saying "Line? Script girl, what''s my next line?"

[frb01]

Hillary Clinton has served what, maybe seven years as a Senator. I would like to welcome you to WNY where I live and we have no sign of the economic revival she promised in Upstate NY. As a matter of fact it took her a couple days to get to Buffalo after the freak fall snow storm last year. She may be experienced in being a first lady but what difference does 1 year or 30 years mean in the Senate. Want experience, look at Bill Richardson and his.

I am so tired of the media saying how much experience she has, she doesn''t have much. I am also waiting for her husband to step out of line, because a serial womanizer doesn''t of a sudden stop, and see how the media handles that.

I am sick of the smug attitude of the media, this is not Hillary''s election to lose, she is not annointed as the nominee and we have a whole bunch of other voices we need to hear from.

I would like to see future campaigns start on 1/1 of the election year, have the primaries scheduled in May and June, the conventions in July or August to even the playing field and save money. Just like pro sports put a cap on spending, and let everyone spend to the cap. We lost Evan Byah, Mark Warner, George Pataki, Gov Vilsack from Iowa and a bunch of others early, I am not saying there were good or not, just that we lost the opportunity.