U.S. Observers Note Progress In Iraq Surge

(CBS/AP)  With one day left in the month, American casualties in July are the lowest since the troop surge began in February, reports CBS News national security correspondent David Martin, and civilian casualties are down by a third.

U.S. officials attribute that to the dismantling of networks which make roadside bombs and to American soldiers protecting the local population.

It would only take a few spectacular attacks to reverse those trends, but even critics of the war strategy are encouraged.

"The moment we got to Baghdad, everything felt very different from previous trips to Iraq," says former CIA analyst Ken Pollack.

Earlier this year, Pollack published an article about Iraq titled "Things Fall Apart." Now he sees "a sudden change in American fortunes."

"This is the first time I have gone to Iraq and actually felt that the United States knew what it was doing and was actually creating some degree of progress," Pollack says.

Retired Marine Gen. Jim Jones, who is conducting a congressionally ordered study of the Iraqi security forces, also came back from Iraq saying privately it was better than he expected.

By any measure, Iraq is still a deadly mess; no one is claiming to see light at the end of the tunnel.

"We have not won this war," Pollack says. "And we didn't see something that looked like victory over in Iraq. All we saw was progress."

It's just enough progress so that a critic like Michael O'Hanlon, who used to think the surge was too little too late, now believes it should be continued.

"For me, gut instinct, just piecing all of the information together subjectively, I thought we should give it a few more months into 2008," O'Hanlon says.

That is exactly what the American commander Gen. David Petraeus wants — continue the surge into next spring and then start a gradual withdrawal back to the pre-surge troop level of 130,000 by the end of 2008.

In other developments:

CBS News correspondent Allen Pizzey reports on one U.S. commander who braves the life-threatening hazards in Baghdad to give Iraqis running water.

A Fort Campbell, Ky., soldier accused of acting as a lookout while his colleagues attacked and killed a 14-year-old Iraqi girl and her family pleaded guilty to some lesser offenses Monday as his court-martial began on rape and murder charges. Pfc. Jesse Spielman pleaded to conspiracy to obstruct justice, arson, wrongfully touching a corpse and drinking. He still faces trial on the more serious charges in the March 2006 attack on Abeer Qassim al-Janabi and her family.

The latest audit report to Congress on Iraq reconstruction says corruption in the country, including fraud, theft and skimming amounts to a "second insurgency" is hindering the rebuilding effort. Stuart Bowen, who wrote the quarterly report, tells The Associated Press that except for security, corruption is the biggest challenge for the Iraqi government to overcome. Failure to maintain projects, once transferred to the Baghdad government, also figures in the report.

Republicans increasingly are backing a new approach in the Iraq war that could become the party's mantra come September. It would mean narrowly limiting missions for U.S. troops but letting President Bush decide when troops should come home. So far, the idea has not attracted the attention of Democratic leaders.

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[shingles1]

pakaal, it's a beautiful scam. War supporters can point and say "See, even critics of the War and (gulp) EVEN liberals see progress!"

Even Pollack and O'Hanlon have supported and been cheerleaders for the war all along.

You think the media would notice the fact that Pollack wrote a book back in 2001 or 2002 titled "The Case for Attacking Iraq". But duh.

According to this bizarre logic, you might as well consider the Bush Administration to be critics of the war, since at various times they've admitted that things haven't always gone as planned.

But the media's really liberal and defeatist and out to get the President and insert cliche here and blah blah blah.

[cbs_oliver]

If US casualties are running about 100 killed per month and soldiers and these deaths are typically caused by about 50 events per month (about two soldiers killed per "event") then the expected variation in monthly casualties would typically be about plus or minus 14 or so and a variation as high as plus or minus 28 would not be significant.

The news folks need to do more homework - or talk to other people who have. Or else maybe the military people need to be more forthright and straight.

[pakaal]

It's amazing how easily mainstream media gets suckered into believing guys like Pollack and O'Hanlon without even checking. Who said they were critics? Why, they themselves, who else? But seriously, O'Hanlon has been a supporter of the war from the beginning. In 2003 he came back from Iraq saying "most indicators" for winning the war "were now favorable". In October of that year, he said to congress "The overall effort in Iraq is succeeding." Wow, harsh criticism of the Bush Administration! I recommend reading just how these guys have been war enablers from the start to today....

http://lefarkins.blogspot.com/2007/07/ohanlon-primary.html

[j-whitman]

ArmySGT1,,,, Disposing of Iraq's government & army opened the flood gates for Civil War, Saddam kept it contained

[randalds]

Posted by ArmySGT1 at 04:50 PM : Jul 31, 2007

No it does not fit the same definition of civil war as the American or Spanish civil wars because those were wars between political ideologies, but this is still a civil war except it's between religious ideologies. Yes this war has been going on for centuries, however it was the raw ignorance of the Bush administration in invading Iraq that tore the scab off from this old wound and infected it with the presence of "infidel soldiers" on their holy land. We didn't start this fire, but we sure as hell poured gallons and gallons of fuel on to it.

[armysgt1]

The conflict has been going on since the death of Muhammad in the 600's. Following his death the Sunni and Shi'a began to fight, they have never stopped. Now we just stepped in the middle of a religious fight.

Some might call it a civil war and by definition it is a civil war, but too many people believe we started this civil war. We did not; we just got in the middle. The middle is a very dangerous place, but with the correct Information Operations campaign we might be able to stop the fighting.

If you had been in one of Saddam's (sunni) torture chamber's and seen what he did to the Shi'a and Kurds you would have known the war was going on, but not on CNN.

[randalds]

The reason we're always finding ourselves in new wars is because young warrior want-to-be's never listen to the wisdom of old warriors. Every new war is sold as "different" or "the right one" or some such bullsh*it. Yet this war has the same stench of stupidity and death Vietnam had about it. This war is not "different". It's just as ignorant and wasteful as Vietnam and just like Vietnam every person who died there, soldier and civilian, died for nothing. In vain. Their lives wasted on a lost cause.

[randalds]

It is a shame you felt that way, but we didn%u2019t %u201Cimpose a democracy on a hyper-religious nation.%u201D I was there the day that a greater percentage of Iraqis voted than Americans voted in our presidential election. That should tell you something about imposing democracy.

There is no civil war. There are a few that believe we will leave and they are wrong. If you walked into just one Iraqi family%u2019s home and sat down and ate with them you would know we did the right thing.


Posted by ArmySGT1 at 04:35 PM : Jul 31, 2007

They voted because the election was promoted to them as a step toward getting us the hell out. they were told (lied to as it turned out) that if they voted in a president and parliament that the US troops would then be able to leave. They ignorantly believed what they were told because they did not yet realize what a bald faced liar Bush is.

And if you don't think there's a civil war going on there right now then you really should not have drank the koolaid you were being served in the mess hall.

[j-whitman]

ArmySGT1,,,, Now you say there isn't a civil war & Iraqi's welcome us with roses & want us to stay ???? --- Come on now, that's a streatch & you know it,,, I think you are just trying to defusse the issues..... But you can do that, it's your opionion.

[armysgt1]

RandalDS,

It is a shame you felt that way, but we didn%u2019t %u201Cimpose a democracy on a hyper-religious nation.%u201D I was there the day that a greater percentage of Iraqis voted than Americans voted in our presidential election. That should tell you something about imposing democracy.

There is no civil war. There are a few that believe we will leave and they are wrong. If you walked into just one Iraqi family%u2019s home and sat down and ate with them you would know we did the right thing.