Obama's Strategy: Emulate Reagan

Conservative Icon's 1980 Bid Is A Blueprint For An Insurgent Campaign

(Politico)  By The Politico's David Paul Kuhn

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Awash in money and publicity but behind in the polls, Barack Obama, advisers say, is planning a classic insurgent's campaign to wrest the Democratic nomination from Hillary Rodham Clinton — one that relies on a surge of momentum from early-state victories and faces a make-or-break test in the South Carolina primary.

Obama is touting a new and unconventional brand of grass-roots politics, but his strategy borrows from precedents set by a previous generation of Democrats such as Jimmy Carter and Gary Hart. His advisers also invoke as inspiration a surprising Republican: Ronald Reagan.

"Now, it is blasphemy for Democrats," Obama pollster Cornell Belcher said of Reagan, "but that hope and optimism that was Ronald Reagan" allowed him to "transcend" ideological divisions within his own party and the general electorate.

The upbeat message, Obama advisers say, won't prevent the candidate from stepping up both veiled and explicit contrasts with Clinton, who he hopes to portray as an old-hat conventional politician whose varied positions on the Iraq war reflect calculation rather than leadership.

Obama's need to transcend conventional politics is evident by looking at the practical hurdles to his nomination. He boasts best-selling books and magazine cover spreads and — most relevant to his 2008 ambitions — is winning the fundraising race in both total dollars and with a record number of contributors.

But bundles of cash and good buzz have not eroded what most national polls show as a durable double-digit lead for Clinton, built largely around her nearly two-to-one advantage with Democratic women.

This has Obama relying on a carom-shot candidacy, in which, come January, he will need to exploit Clinton's weakness in the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses, then have nearly all the bounces go his way in other early contests if he hopes to compete credibly once the race goes national with voting in half the states on Feb. 5.

Obama strategists say for now they are not running a national campaign but are depending on what senior adviser David Axelrod calls "a sequential series" of victories.

This is why Obama is already on the air with television ads in Iowa and New Hampshire and so far is out-spending Clinton in every early state.

The trend includes more than twice as much spending in Iowa ($1.6 million to Clinton's $839,000) and nearly three times as much in South Carolina ($350,000 to $120,000) in the first half of this year.

The South Carolina Democratic primary electorate is usually more than half African-American, and Obama advisers predict these voters will back one of their own to give him an essential victory a week before Super Tuesday.

History suggests the hazards of this momentum-based approach. Nearly every Democratic nominating contest for the past 40 years has featured some variation on the same script: reform candidates trying to use grass-roots energy and media momentum to beat rivals with more traditional profiles and, usually, more support from the party establishment.

Occasionally it works, as when George McGovern won the Democratic nomination on an anti-war message in 1972 or when Jimmy Carter bounced off an Iowa victory to become unstoppable in 1976.

Usually it doesn't work, as reflected in the experiences of candidates such as Eugene McCarthy, Jerry Brown, Bill Bradley or, most recently, Howard Dean, who in 2003 was riding a wave that looked much like the one Obama is trying to surf now, before wiping out once voting actually began.

A close parallel to the strategy Obama is trying to execute (with a different conclusion) is the one that took Gary Hart to the brink of a major upset of Walter Mondale in 1984.

Hart stunned the party establishment when his future-oriented "new ideas" message led to a big victory in the New Hampshire primary. Mondale soon rallied by saying Hart's supposed new ideas reminded him of a fast-food hamburger commercial: "Where's the beef?"

Obama's hope is to answer that question most fervently by emphasizing that he opposed the war in Iraq from the outset.

Hart, who in addition to his own insurgent campaign also managed McGovern's in 1972, sees new vitality in the old strategic model, questioning Clinton as he once did Mondale.

"There still is an enormous number of people in the party who are unhappy with [Clinton] for what they perceive to be her vacillation on the war and her reluctance to confess error," he said in an interview. "People who care about these things remember when, remember how, remember who took leadership.

"She's one of the best-known women in the world," Hart added. "She's been in the White House for eight years. She's a senator from one of the largest states. And 60-plus percent of the Democratic Party wants somebody else."

It will be a challenge for Obama to become that "anybody but Clinton" candidate, an urge that is another common reaction to Democratic front-runners.

Obama advisers, speaking privately, acknowledge that the race likely will hinge on whether the debate is on Obama's terms (Who presents the fresher and more compelling face for the future?) or on Clinton's (Who can give voters the most reassurance about ability to do the job?).

"If the debate is about changing politics and moving the country in a different direction and bringing people together, we like our odds in that debate," said a senior official in the campaign, who insisted on not being identified in order to discuss strategy candidly. "If the debate is primarily about who is going to be a strong, tough leader, that debate, quite frankly, is probably going to benefit Hillary Clinton."

Obama's goal is to draw contrasts with Clinton without drawing blood. "There is a difference between contrasting and attacking," Belcher said. Obama is relying on his oratory to portray himself as the aspirational candidate — "we're more interested in looking forward, not in looking backward," Obama says on the stump, inferring that Clinton is the anachronistic choice. In response, Clinton invokes the 1990s prosperity under Bill Clinton to argue that "yesterday's news was pretty good."

Beneath this larger contest over message and public image, however, lie a number of tactical considerations.

Numerous polls show Clinton running third in Iowa, behind Edwards in first place and Obama in second. Obama's goal is to win that state or, in combination with Edwards, demonstrate that there is a powerful anti-Clinton constituency.

A weak showing for Clinton in Iowa would make New Hampshire a must-win for her. She has a lead there, including in a poll this month by CNN/WMUR. She won 36 percent to Obama's 27 percent and Edwards' 11 percent. The country's first viable female candidate wins 41 percent of women and splits men with Obama at 30 percent each.

If he is able to win or come close in Iowa, New Hampshire or Nevada, that would send Obama on to South Carolina. Rick Wade, an Obama adviser there, said an Obama victory in the state is "critical" to his chances.

Belcher flatly predicts: "We are going to outright win South Carolina."

Democrats debated in the Palmetto State Monday night. A July CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll finds Clinton leading with 39 percent and Obama at 25 percent. Other polling in June showed Obama leading.

Obama's greatest challenge in winning South Carolina is wooing black women, who are swaying between him and Clinton. "When you talk about the broken politics of Washington, the people who are most affected by it are single women, working moms," Axelrod said.

Obama's wife, Michelle, has already visited South Carolina several times. The campaign sees her as a key means to reach black women. By late summer or early autumn, Wade said the Obama campaign will be advertising in South Carolina, as well.

But Obama's campaign staff is aware that if they do not appear to contest the earlier electoral challenges, from Nevada to New Hampshire, they may lack the momentum to win South Carolina.

Dean fell prey to the same pitfall. His campaign never recovered after imploding in Iowa. After the first 2004 caucuses, John F. Kerry rode a wave of perceived electability from Iowa to the convention, not unlike many Democrats before him.

"The liberal wing of the Democratic Party falls in love with quasi-messianic figures who come along regularly with an exciting, aspirational vision for where the country must go, often coupled with an unpopular war, at least an unpopular war among progressives, and for a significant time they are ascendant within that liberal wing of the Democratic Party," said Steve Grossman, the chairman of Dean's 2004 presidential campaign who is now a fundraiser for Clinton.

Yet, Grossman emphasized, "when the broader cross section of the Democratic Party takes a somewhat more dispassionate look at the field and says who is ready to be president of the United States and bring the kind of vision and leadership to the job, those quasi-messianic figures tend to fall short. And the more established candidate tends to win, because people are looking for something rock solid and predictable when it comes to presidential voting."

[forthepeopl1]

someone needs to ask them this...............

this is the only way!!!!!!!!! to stop this adminastration. period..the only way bush has no way of vetoing. so why haven't they done this?

both party are dragging this on to far. its time to end this for god sake

so call on congress to do this NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Article 1 of the US Constitution gives the Congress, not the President, the right to declare war. And the War Powers Act specifies that the President may not continue a war without Congressional authorization. Saddam is dead. There never were any WMDs or ties to Al Qaeda. The basis for the 2002 war authorization is gone.
If Congress passes a resolution de-authorizing the war, the President has no legal authority to continue. De-authorization cannot be vetoed, and it would legally require Bush to begin bringing the troops home.
The time for waiting is over. People are dying every day. We cannot wait until this fall to start bringing our troops home. If Congress doesn't act before they leave for the summer, the only thing that will change between now and the end of the year is the body count.
Congress has a public mandate and the Constitutional authority to end this war.

LETS GO AMERICA WE OWE THIS TO OUR TROOPS DIEING FOR NOTHING BUT THE PRESIDENTS AND MR VP'S PLEASURE, AND PROFITS.....

[name_verify]

DNC News Update

Democrats display impotence with rants on news sites.

Barak the Magic Negro has identity crisis and tries to be like Reagan for a day.

[infidel_us]

"Obama's Strategy: Emulate Reagan"

Uh oh......I see major turmoil brewing in libville. Hitlery will get the nomination and Osama will get the VP nod.

There's no reason to besmurch a great president like Reagan by having dems emulate his campaign strategery.

[randalds]

Let's just hope that if he's elected he doesn't govern like Reagan. He was the 2nd worst president in modern times behind the Chimp in charge right now (who leaves even the worst presidents in the duct when it comes to pure incompetence and ignorance). Regan traded arms for hostages with Iran, then sold the weapons to fund an illegal CIA war in El Salvador, sold weapons (including poisonous gas ingredients and biological weapons) to Iraq while selling Iran weapons too and even gave Saddam CIA satellite information on where to best disperse the gas for maximum kills. He's "Aw shucks" cowboy act aside he was nearly as much of a murderer as the Chimp is. Of course he had help from the same as*sholes, Rumsfeld and Cheney, so it's not too surprising.

[prinzowhales]

As if he needs to imitate Reagan to gain the support of the usual fashionable gullible chumps.

Bush plans to leave the mess he's made in the lap of his successor. This means that whoever is elected will expend his political capital paying for the crimes of George Bush. Obama has already made it clear--in the last CBS Obama article--that he plans to have the US take out the guess-timated 20,000 "activist extremists" that he claims are the problem in Iraq. That is an open-ended pledge to continue the occupation.

[donnie900]

Reagan was a terrible president. For the same reasons Bush is: The people he has working for him.

Republican administrations tend to always attract an unsightly type of people. Generally of the militant kind.

[Syndicate]

He is no Reagan. Regan beleived in freedom and was willing to FIGHT for it like Bush.

[drummer94]

Obama, words to ponder: "Open mouth-insert foot."

[donnie900]

Sha.. fight for what? They won't tell ya.

[donnie900]

I think Obama's just afraid of Hillary. She's outclassing him. Especially with the "wearing your religion on your sleeve" comment. That hit a lot of people exactly the right way.

But Hillary's confusion about Iraq is what Republicans have the best chance of winning on. Obama on the other hand, doesn't have that problem. He was against it from the very beginning.

[lars008-2009]

please support our troops

demonic-rats won't fight the fascist nazi terrorislamic war...

Incredible! George S Patton's New Speech-Iraq & modern world
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyUX6wV1lBQ

[name_verify]

There is a rumor this negro could be magic. Is this true?

[mike71067]

This is about the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Obama emulating Reagan?? Reagan was a well-respected conservative leader, and Obama the liberal is quickly becoming the laughing stock of the Democrat party. The more we learn about him, the less we like him. Even Hillary and the rest of the Dumbocrats are laughing at him after that last debate. What a dork!

[Syndicate]

lars008: Is this video posted anywhere else? The network I'm on blocks you tube. Too much bandwith. Any Idea where it can be downloaded? Any body?

[lars008-2009]

There is a rumor this negro could be magic. Is this true?
Posted by screen_name_ at 01:31 PM : Jul 25, 2007

nah... that was magic johnson... now he is hiv johnson...

[donnie900]

Mountain magic?

[lars008-2009]

please support our troops

demonic-rats won't fight the fascist nazi terrorislamic war...

Incredible! George S Patton's New Speech-Iraq & modern world

http://www.vidspedia.com/incredible-george-s-pattons-new-speech-iraq-modern-world.html

[donnie900]

You shouldn't have to support professionals.

[ckcool192001]

On the other hand you have Bush, who for some reason most republicans in congress supports...who knows why, but he has gotten this country in a war with no clear stratgey to win, or to withdrawl. Iraq is making no moves to strenghen their government since they know that as long as the US is there they don't need to worry about anything, they can yell, "Hey, just let the US take care of it, why do we need to worry about it" and they will continue to do this until we show Iraq that they will have to stand on their own, and soon. The problem with Bush is that he is afraid to, or refuses to admit that he was wrong about Iraq. We need a leader in this country that is not afraid to admit when he/she is wrong and willing to do what it takes to bring an end to this war, and take up the issue of immigration reform, tax reform the issues that taxpayer money should be going to rather than using taxpayer money to be a crutch to a disabled country, that could stand on its on two feet if it just tried.

[ckcool192001]

As I see the presidential race in 2008 the republicans have virtually no chance of winning in congress or the white house. Now consider this, the two front running democrates, Obama and Clinton make for an interesting run. Considering that there are still many many racist out there that wouldn't vote for Ohama, then you have the sexist people out there that wouldn't vote for Clinton. Now considering that the vast majority of the US hopefully will look past race and *** and vote for the person who will do the best job.

The thing about all presidential elections is that the canidaites always bring up what they have did in the past the scandals the votes etc, which can be good indicators or how they will run the country and what they stand for. Unfortunatly there are some people out there that look at Ohama and see his background in the middle east and with all the talk these days about terrorist everyone thinks he will terrorize the country worse than bush. The thing that everyone is overlooking is that no one man can run this country. Congress writes the laws and the president approves them...So Obama even if his goals would be to destroy this country from the inside out it would be difficult considering that congress is there to check his power and the supreme court is there to strike down laws that are unconstitutional

[mudrose-2009]

He is no Reagan. Regan beleived in freedom and was willing to FIGHT for it like Bush.
Posted by cbscrash07

No and he's no John Kennedy either. What's his name said that of what's his name. But who would wanna be what's his name anyway? Be yourself. This way if the people hate you, it's because they HATE you, not some other guy you're trying to be like. I'm no Visa. Ya here me Donnie?

[donnie900]

That country was a lot better off with Saddam Hussein.

[name_verify]

Why would they say he is a magic negro if it isn't true?

[lars008-2009]

please support our troops

demonic-rats won't fight the fascist nazi terrorislamic war...

Incredible! George S Patton's New Speech-Iraq & modern world
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyUX6wV1lBQ
http://www.vidspedia.com/incredible-george-s-pattons-new-speech-iraq-modern-world.html
http://www.viralvideochart.com/youtube/incredible_george_s_pattons_new_speechiraq_amp_modern_world?id=xyUX6wV1lBQ
http://noisyroom.net/blog/?p=20868
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4096841987847252972

[donnie900]

"Ya here me Donnie?"

I think I understand what yer saying, but I don't agree with you. Not that I'd know anything about this stuff, at all. Not that anybody tells me.

Tell ya what: I think about it sommore if you mail me a jetski.

[name_verify]

If this negro is really magic he can change into Ronald Reagan or Oprah Winprey or anybody.

[perception5]

As a Reagan Republican I view Obama quest to be like him a "disgrace".

Reagan was famous for always saying:

"Well........ I didn't leave the Democrat Party the Democrat Party "left" me.

The key word being "Left".

If Americans liked Ronald Reagan they are going to love Mitt Romney. Mitt is the closet person to Ronald Reagan ...........by far.

[donnie900]

"Why would they say he is a magic negro if it isn't true?"

The only reason I can think that he might be "magical" (and btw, thats a misguided term), is that they love him in Africa. Where the real genocide is. And I imagine he could do a lot of good for the honest reasons republicans were dishonest about.

[bogusbones]

Bloomberg/Schwarzenegger 2008

[name_verify]

Barak the magic negro...
Lives in DC...
The man from the L.A. paper says he's black...
But not authentically...

[donnie900]

Yup.. "Magic" is an unholy term. If you had any religious sensitivities at all, you'd know not to use it.

Magic is for fiction. In the real world there is no magic. There is only wickedness and evil and suffering.

[nolalou]

mike71067,

Reagan may have been 'well respected' by conservatives, but he sucked as President! Doesn't anybody remember Iran/Contra? What about 'trickle down' economics that bankrupted the country with huge debts? (but not as bas as GW is doing!)

I don't even give him credit for 'winning the cold war', The USSR self-imploded, due to their own ineptitude and corruption of their government, it wouldn't have mattered if Micky Mouse was the US president at the time.

[a-ji]

Obama, emulates Reagan? Not even close! Keep on dreaming Mr. Obama, its free.

[name_verify]

But what if he really is a magic negro? Like Magic Johnson? And why hasn't Barak talked basketball yet if he really is an authentic negro?

[donnie900]

Are you afraid he's like yer magic peckkkker?

[donnie900]

I thought Schwartznegger couldn't get elected because he wasn't a citizen or something.

[name_verify]

Is "Schwartznegger" German for "Magic Negro"?

[mudrose-2009]

Well........ I didn't leave the Democrat Party the Democrat Party "left" me.

But could it mean that "La Montana Magica" is leaving the Party too. Could that be? Mann oh Mann, wouldn't that be interesting. Could he tilt his head to the side like Ronnie when he makes his quips? Will he, will he? Hard to say what black magic can do.

[name_verify]

This Donnie poster sounds like a hater, a real racist, who refuses to acknowledge that a negro just might be magic.

[tnt1954]

ronald raygun was a very 'bad' president.
that's why i voted for him and supported
carter. i went on strike against the
l.a.p.d. in late 1980 and lost my job
for it in early 1981. he went and busted
all the unions destroyed communism and
blew up chernobyl. but that was the 'evil'
empire that was servile to the rest of the world.
communism is just a capitalist plot to get
cheap labor.

[donnie900]

Even when you guys are in charge'a the rules ya lose..

[kennergirl]

If I had to chose between Clinton and Obama I think I would vote for Obama. I did not like the Clintons when he was in office and my how fast we forget all the things that came up during his presidency. I guess it's true that people have selective memory about things...Clinton wasn't a "great" president as many claim he was. In fact, throughout the whole history of the US we may have only had a handful of truly "great" presidents the rest were mediocre at best and some were just plain terrible. I know this election we will most likely have a Democratic President which I have no problem with but God I hope we get someone who could actually do something good for our country and not just to get re-elected (which seems to be the most important to most elected officials).

[mudrose-2009]

This Donnie poster sounds like a hater, a real racist, who refuses to acknowledge that a negro just might be magic.
Posted by screen_name_ at

Honest men are always accused of being racists, haters. Individualistic thinkers are creative, boisterous sometimes but always have a point of view that is askew from the maddening crowd. Don't belittle what you can't see. Magic can be black and white. Where's the shade of gray. I'm begging you where is it?

[name_verify]

Take your hate crimes elsewhere, Donnie, you can't deny Barak is a magic negro.

[donnie900]

You think I'm honest? Wow. Thanks mudrose. :)

[name_verify]

Barak the magic negro...
Lives in DC...
The man from the L.A. paper says he's black...
But not authentically...

1-800-HELP-NEGROS Call donate support the magic negro campaign

[donnie900]

"Take your hate crimes elsewhere, Donnie, you can't deny Barak is a magic negro."

I actually like Barak Obama. I don't think he's right about there being racism in this country, but I can understand why he thinks there is, given the incompetency of Katrina. And beyond that, he's a very seemingly distinguished fellow. Who'd probably make an excellent President of the United States.

[russ1985]

I don't think he's emulating Reagan as much as pulling from Reagan's playbook. Thinking back to 1980, Reagan wasn't the perceived front runner early on. I believe Bob Dole was. Reagan showed that he had a different way of doing things and that resonated with the public which was soured on Carter. We have a similar situation here where people are looking for a different direction and the current President is a dud. Clinton is the safe establishment choice like Dole in 1980. I'm not sure Obama has the juice to pull it off but don't dismiss it out of hand.

[realpatriot1]

kennergirl,

Greta post! I agree with you 100% and it was a joy to read something intelligent amidst the other reatrded comments here.

[name_verify]

If you deny a negro can be magic, then you are a racist. HATE CRIME!