Poll: 63% Say Clinton "Likely" To Win

CBS/NYT Poll: Majorities Of Both Men And Women Think New York Democrat Will Be Next President

(CBS)  A new CBS News/New York Times poll out Thursday shows 63 percent of voters believe it's likely that Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton will be elected the first woman president in U.S. history if she wins her party's nomination.

While opinions about the New York senator are strongly divided by gender, majorities of both men (59 percent) and women (65 percent) surveyed think it's very or somewhat likely Clinton will win the presidency.

Even most Republicans (53 percent) think Clinton will win — as do 77 percent of Democrats.


LIKELY CLINTON WILL WIN IN NOVEMBER 2008? (Among registered voters)

All
Very/somewhat likely
63%
Not very/not at all likely
35%

Women
Very/somewhat likely
65%
Not very/not at all likely
32%

Men
Very/somewhat likely
59%
Not very/not at all likely
40%

The poll shows Clinton continuing to hold a solid lead over the rest of the Democratic field. Among likely Democratic primary voters, she has a 43-24 percent edge over her closest rival, Sen. Barack Obama. Former Sen. John Edwards is third at 16 percent.

On the Republican side, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani remains the front-runner at 33 percent, but still-undeclared candidate Fred Thompson, the actor and former senator, is gaining ground, up to 25 percent. Sen. John McCain has slipped to 15 percent, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 8 percent.

More voters (75 percent) say Clinton is a strong leader, than say this about Giuliani (71 percent) and Obama (68 percent). Obama has a slight lead over Clinton when voters were asked whether a candidate shares their moral values, while Giuliani trails.

Clinton falls behind, however, on the question of believability. More voters think she's likely to say what people want to hear than say that about either Obama or Giuliani.

IF THESE WERE THE CANDIDATES, WHO WOULD YOU WANT AS THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE? (Among Democratic Primary Voters)

Clinton
43%
Obama
24%
Edwards
16%

IF THESE WERE THE CANDIDATES, WHO WOULD YOU WANT AS THE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE? (Among Republican Primary Voters)

Giuliani
33%
Thompson
25%
McCain
15%
Romney
8%

On specific issues, a majority of voters thinks Clinton would make good decisions on health care (74 percent) and foreign policy (68 percent), while 58 percent think she'd be effective as commander in chief. But many (52 percent) are "uneasy" about her ability to handle an international crisis.

Forty-one percent of voters think Clinton's vote authorizing the Iraq war was a mistake, while 53 percent think it was not. But even those who see it as a mistake don't feel overwhelmingly that she needs to apologize.

There is a significant gender gap on nearly every question asked about Clinton, with women having a more positive opinion of her than men.

The poll suggests that Sen. Clinton's husband, former President Bill Clinton, will not have a major impact on the election. Half of voters think her marriage to him will not influence her support one way or the other; while voters who think the marriage will have an impact are evenly split between those who think it will help her and those who think it will hurt her.

The poll also asked about President Bush and the U.S. Congress, and both receive the same low overall job approval ratings: 29 percent. Majorities say they're disappointed with both the Democrats and the Republicans in Congress.

Pessimism about the overall direction of the country remains high, too, with more than seven in 10 Americans saying the U.S. is on the wrong track.

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,554 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone July 9-17, 2007. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. An oversample of women was also conducted for this poll, for a total of 1,068 interviews among this group, by selecting them with higher probability than men in households with both men and women. The weights of men and women in mixed-gender households were adjusted to compensate for their different probabilities of selection. The final weighted distribution of men and women in the sample is in proportion to the composition of the adult population in the U.S. Census.

[drivelphobe]

erasmus6:

I surmise that you are one lonely, friendless indivdual. Your posts drift aimlessly from the topic so you can engage various people by luring them into discussions of personal attacks and time occupying trivia. As I stated earlier, "poor erasmus6". Your only outlet and contact with the living is on these posts. I can't engage you anymore and neither should anyone else. You are a waste of time.

[erasmus6]

down-ndirty

I have noticed a few of your posts where you call people "stupid and foolish" and tell them you are laughing at them, not with them. You seem to like criticizing people and their posts as well.

[erasmus6]

down-ndirty

"Try not to "think" about those things that you are not totally familiar with."

Actually I am familiar with quite a lot. Not only have I been reading all the comments on this website for months, I also have relatives that live in the U.S. I also have family from Ireland.

"...and the "rights" we have here don't apply to you."

And what rights would that be? The right to "bear arms"? That is the only rights you do have. You have absolutely no say in anything else that goes on in your country.

"Do you have some problem that you have to demean everyone you disagree with?"

Do you people have a problem that you have to demean and be so viscious towards Hillary Clinton? You can disagree with her "VIEWS" but most of you are down right NASTY.

And if I recall, I was communicating with "drivel" not you. You intruded into our conversation. And when you say that I was demeaning, what do you call this: "She is a buffoon, and an ugly one at that." posted by drivelphobe

He attacked her personally. If that isn't demeaning I don't know what is. In fact everything he said about her was demeaning.

[down-ndirty]

I really don't think... Posted by erasmus6 at 05:26 PM : Jul 22, 2007
___________________________

Try not to "think" about those things that you are not totally familiar with. It makes you look foolish.

[down-ndirty]

Oh and the part about you wanting to live in Ireland? I really don't think they would want an American living there. Americans aren't well liked over on that side of the water.
Posted by erasmus6 at 05:26 PM : Jul 22, 2007
________________________

Now you're really stretching it. I've been there twice and have relatives there.

Do you have some kind of problem that you have to demean everyone you disagree with?

[erasmus6]

drivelphobe

You really should shut up because you are sounding more and more ridiculous.

Hillary wishes she was a man because she is running for president? You need to get a grip on reality, I think.

[drivelphobe]

erasmus6:

I have to close for now. I can only take so much Hillary talk. She doesn't have a prayer, but she loves the limelight. She really wishes she were a man, as perhaps some others do. The polls are wrong, but it's fun to chat about it anyway.

[erasmus6]

Even if Hillary did win, I am quite sure that between the corrupt people in your country and your corrupt voting system, it will be made to look like she didn't. That is probably what happened in the Bush/Gore election too.

[drivelphobe]

poor erasmus6:

It's clear after a review of your postings that you are an imbecile, jealous of Americans, and capable simply of hurling nasty, unfounded accusations at all who disagree with your infantile points of view. I sense also a deep-rooted case of *** envy, along with gender identity dilemma. Perhaps this explains your intense infatuation with Hillary.

Stay in Canada, but keep your ridiculous comments coming to amuse us. You are pitiful but we accept you because of our tremendous compassion. Your statement that everyone hates the United States doesn't explain your zealous commitment to engage us over issues of our country.

[erasmus6]

Oh and the part about you wanting to live in Ireland? I really don't think they would want an American living there. Americans aren't well liked over on that side of the water.

[erasmus6]

down-ndirty

And the reason we have SOME people coming to your country for fame and fortune is they can get more attention there because you seem to have an over abundance of people that OBSESS over celebrity, also your media is out of control with reporting on the celebrity. They seem to need the attention and the ridiculous money they are paid for virtually having no ambition to get a real job. But there are some that do stay here and do quite well. And then there are some that go to your country get famous and then return home.

[erasmus6]

down-ndirty

"But I am sure you have them: they are just not visible to the rest of the world."

Yes,we do have problems but just not to the extreme like your country. And the reason they aren't so visible is because we don't feel the need to air our dirty laundry to the rest of the world. Also your country is so self obsorbed that it wouldn't see anything even if it was visible.

"...best place on earth to live..."

Oh please! You keep convincing yourself that if that is what you need to do. How could it be the best place on earth to live when you have a pitiful health care system where people are dying from lack health care. You have poorly managed and filthy hospitals. You are being scammed and charged an arm and a leg for your medications. The list is never-ending. You might have people coming to your country because they have heard it is a better life and for some it probably is. But there are a lot of people coming there that are finding out that it isn't all it is cracked up to be and can't leave because they have no more money to get out.

[down-ndirty]

Another thing that men do quite well is: LIVE IN DENIAL. Posted by erasmus6 at 02:54 PM : Jul 22, 2007
__________________

What a stupid statement! Do you have anything to back it up? Or are you just shooting from the 'lip.'

Actually, I WISH I could live in denial. I wish I could deny that: Bush is a loser, that his favorite childhood bood was written AFTER he graduated from Yale (which pretty much set the stage for all the events that followed during the past 6 years), that he started a war that we probably won't win in my lifetime (if ever), that Cheney really is a dicck, etc.

I wish I could deny my ex-wife ever existed. Speaking of my ex-wife: She lives in denial pretty well, too. Having married a philanderer and having been presented with sufficient evidence that being married to the "perfect woman" hasn't changed him, like Hillary, she just GAFs it off. She figures it's better to be married to a loser than not married at all. LOL!! Better he than me.

[down-ndirty]

If you people weren't so self obsorbed and started paying attention to how other countries function, you would realize how s-c-r-e-w-e-d up yours was. Take me for instance, just from reading the comments on this website over the past few months I have come to realize how incredibly lucky I am to live in Canada! Posted by erasmus6 at 02:56 AM : Jul 22, 2007
_______________________________

Fortunately most of us aren't self-absorbed, only the rich and powerful, and as shown in Nov '06, we do pay attention. We may be a little screwwed up compared to how we could be but this is by far the b-e-s-t place on earth to live and the b-e-s-t system of government under which to live. If I couldn't live here my next choice would be Ireland (not Canada).

Believe me, WE are glad you live in Canada. Pleae stay there (and keep your frigid opinions of us there as well).

If the Canadian system is so great why do Canadian singers and actors come to the U.S. to make their money?

[down-ndirty]

Anyways, you people need to start concentrating on what the person has to offer instead of obsessing over trivial b-u-l-lsh-i-t.
Posted by erasmus6 at 02:56 AM : Jul 22, 2007
_______________________

Just goes to show how much you REALLY know about us and our country. Having a "dynasty" isn't trivial *********.

Maybe you should study a little U.S. history before you spew your stupid statements. Better yet, quit criticising our country altogether. As a "foreigner" your opinions of us are "irrelevant" and the "rights" we have here don't apply to you.

[down-ndirty]

Bill Clinton was president in 1993, the first time the World Trade Center was attacked. Maybe if he would have done something about it back then he could've prevented 9/11. Posted by GunOwnerDan at 09:05 AM : Jul 22, 2007
____________________

Actually Clinton did something about it. His admin convicted ten militant Islamist conspirators. Far more than John Ashcroft ever convicted.

[down-ndirty]

"Would a family dynasty like that be acceptable in Canada?" Why would it matter?
Posted by erasmus6 at 02:56 AM : Jul 22, 2007
__________________________

Why would it matter in Canada. With 1/10 the population of the U.S., 1/100th the influence in the world, and the Queen as the monarch, you're going to have only a fraction of the problems we have. But I'm sure you have them; they are just not visible to the rest of the world. And certainly not important in the overall scheme of things.

[down-ndirty]

If Hillary becomes president I can guarantee that you will be more liked and respected that you are now!
Posted by erasmus6 at 01:20 PM : Jul 20, 2007
___________________

I can equally quarantee that if anyone who doesn't fancy him/herself as a "war president" becomes president we will be more liked and respected.

Let's face it, better days will come after Jan 2009.

[erasmus6]

Another thing that men do quite well is: LIVE IN DENIAL.

[erasmus6]

GUNOWNERDAN

I don't think that there is anything that could have been done to prevent 9/11. People hate the U.S. because they have a tendency to contaminate the rest of the world with their ways and views. As long as they hate you, there is NOTHING that will stop them.

"Nothing would encourage muslim terrorists to hate America more than a woman president, especially Hitlery Clinton."

Don't count on it. She could actually be the one to turn things around. So far your country has been run by men.Men have a different mentality than women.With men it is all about their EGOS. That is why everyone carries a gun in your country. And I am not saying that war isn't called for sometimes.Like I believe that going into Iraq to stop Saddam from killing and torturing his people was the right thing to do.(And no I do not believe it was about the oil.)

Anyways, I believe that a woman is going to care more about the PEOPLE. She is going to care more about healthcare and the state of your hospitals etc.

Surely you can't get any worse than you have it now. NOW you are the laughing stock of the world.