Poll: 63% Say Clinton "Likely" To Win
French President Francois Hollande waits for the arrival of Benin and African Union President Thomas Boni Yayi, at the Elysee Palace in Paris, Tuesday May 29, 2012. Francois Hollande says Syria's ambassador is being expelled amid continuing violence by Syrian government forces against civilians and opposition members. (AP Photo Jacques Brinon) / Jacques Brinon
A new CBS News/New York Times poll out Thursday shows 63 percent of voters believe it's likely that Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton will be elected the first woman president in U.S. history if she wins her party's nomination.
While opinions about the New York senator are strongly divided by gender, majorities of both men (59 percent) and women (65 percent) surveyed think it's very or somewhat likely Clinton will win the presidency.
Even most Republicans (53 percent) think Clinton will win — as do 77 percent of Democrats.
LIKELY CLINTON WILL WIN IN NOVEMBER 2008? (Among registered voters)
All
Very/somewhat likely
63%
Not very/not at all likely
35%
Women
Very/somewhat likely
65%
Not very/not at all likely
32%
Men
Very/somewhat likely
59%
Not very/not at all likely
40%
The poll shows Clinton continuing to hold a solid lead over the rest of the Democratic field. Among likely Democratic primary voters, she has a 43-24 percent edge over her closest rival, Sen. Barack Obama. Former Sen. John Edwards is third at 16 percent.
On the Republican side, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani remains the front-runner at 33 percent, but still-undeclared candidate Fred Thompson, the actor and former senator, is gaining ground, up to 25 percent. Sen. John McCain has slipped to 15 percent, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 8 percent.
More voters (75 percent) say Clinton is a strong leader, than say this about Giuliani (71 percent) and Obama (68 percent). Obama has a slight lead over Clinton when voters were asked whether a candidate shares their moral values, while Giuliani trails.
Clinton falls behind, however, on the question of believability. More voters think she's likely to say what people want to hear than say that about either Obama or Giuliani.
IF THESE WERE THE CANDIDATES, WHO WOULD YOU WANT AS THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE? (Among Democratic Primary Voters)
Clinton
43%
Obama
24%
Edwards
16%
IF THESE WERE THE CANDIDATES, WHO WOULD YOU WANT AS THE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE? (Among Republican Primary Voters)
Giuliani
33%
Thompson
25%
McCain
15%
Romney
8%
On specific issues, a majority of voters thinks Clinton would make good decisions on health care (74 percent) and foreign policy (68 percent), while 58 percent think she'd be effective as commander in chief. But many (52 percent) are "uneasy" about her ability to handle an international crisis.
Forty-one percent of voters think Clinton's vote authorizing the Iraq war was a mistake, while 53 percent think it was not. But even those who see it as a mistake don't feel overwhelmingly that she needs to apologize.
There is a significant gender gap on nearly every question asked about Clinton, with women having a more positive opinion of her than men.
The poll suggests that Sen. Clinton's husband, former President Bill Clinton, will not have a major impact on the election. Half of voters think her marriage to him will not influence her support one way or the other; while voters who think the marriage will have an impact are evenly split between those who think it will help her and those who think it will hurt her.
The poll also asked about President Bush and the U.S. Congress, and both receive the same low overall job approval ratings: 29 percent. Majorities say they're disappointed with both the Democrats and the Republicans in Congress.
Pessimism about the overall direction of the country remains high, too, with more than seven in 10 Americans saying the U.S. is on the wrong track.
This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,554 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone July 9-17, 2007. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. An oversample of women was also conducted for this poll, for a total of 1,068 interviews among this group, by selecting them with higher probability than men in households with both men and women. The weights of men and women in mixed-gender households were adjusted to compensate for their different probabilities of selection. The final weighted distribution of men and women in the sample is in proportion to the composition of the adult population in the U.S. Census.
Copyright 2009 CBS. All rights reserved. While opinions about the New York senator are strongly divided by gender, majorities of both men (59 percent) and women (65 percent) surveyed think it's very or somewhat likely Clinton will win the presidency.
Even most Republicans (53 percent) think Clinton will win — as do 77 percent of Democrats.
LIKELY CLINTON WILL WIN IN NOVEMBER 2008? (Among registered voters)
All
Very/somewhat likely
63%Not very/not at all likely
35% Women
Very/somewhat likely
65%Not very/not at all likely
32% Men
Very/somewhat likely
59%Not very/not at all likely
40% The poll shows Clinton continuing to hold a solid lead over the rest of the Democratic field. Among likely Democratic primary voters, she has a 43-24 percent edge over her closest rival, Sen. Barack Obama. Former Sen. John Edwards is third at 16 percent.
On the Republican side, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani remains the front-runner at 33 percent, but still-undeclared candidate Fred Thompson, the actor and former senator, is gaining ground, up to 25 percent. Sen. John McCain has slipped to 15 percent, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 8 percent.
More voters (75 percent) say Clinton is a strong leader, than say this about Giuliani (71 percent) and Obama (68 percent). Obama has a slight lead over Clinton when voters were asked whether a candidate shares their moral values, while Giuliani trails.
Clinton falls behind, however, on the question of believability. More voters think she's likely to say what people want to hear than say that about either Obama or Giuliani.
IF THESE WERE THE CANDIDATES, WHO WOULD YOU WANT AS THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE? (Among Democratic Primary Voters)
Clinton
43%Obama
24% Edwards
16%IF THESE WERE THE CANDIDATES, WHO WOULD YOU WANT AS THE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE? (Among Republican Primary Voters)
Giuliani
33%Thompson
25% McCain
15% Romney
8%On specific issues, a majority of voters thinks Clinton would make good decisions on health care (74 percent) and foreign policy (68 percent), while 58 percent think she'd be effective as commander in chief. But many (52 percent) are "uneasy" about her ability to handle an international crisis.
Forty-one percent of voters think Clinton's vote authorizing the Iraq war was a mistake, while 53 percent think it was not. But even those who see it as a mistake don't feel overwhelmingly that she needs to apologize.
There is a significant gender gap on nearly every question asked about Clinton, with women having a more positive opinion of her than men.
The poll suggests that Sen. Clinton's husband, former President Bill Clinton, will not have a major impact on the election. Half of voters think her marriage to him will not influence her support one way or the other; while voters who think the marriage will have an impact are evenly split between those who think it will help her and those who think it will hurt her.
The poll also asked about President Bush and the U.S. Congress, and both receive the same low overall job approval ratings: 29 percent. Majorities say they're disappointed with both the Democrats and the Republicans in Congress.
Pessimism about the overall direction of the country remains high, too, with more than seven in 10 Americans saying the U.S. is on the wrong track.
This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,554 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone July 9-17, 2007. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. An oversample of women was also conducted for this poll, for a total of 1,068 interviews among this group, by selecting them with higher probability than men in households with both men and women. The weights of men and women in mixed-gender households were adjusted to compensate for their different probabilities of selection. The final weighted distribution of men and women in the sample is in proportion to the composition of the adult population in the U.S. Census.
I have noticed a few of your posts where you call people "stupid and foolish" and tell them you are laughing at them, not with them. You seem to like criticizing people and their posts as well.
"Try not to "think" about those things that you are not totally familiar with."
Actually I am familiar with quite a lot. Not only have I been reading all the comments on this website for months, I also have relatives that live in the U.S. I also have family from Ireland.
"...and the "rights" we have here don't apply to you."
And what rights would that be? The right to "bear arms"? That is the only rights you do have. You have absolutely no say in anything else that goes on in your country.
"Do you have some problem that you have to demean everyone you disagree with?"
Do you people have a problem that you have to demean and be so viscious towards Hillary Clinton? You can disagree with her "VIEWS" but most of you are down right NASTY.
And if I recall, I was communicating with "drivel" not you. You intruded into our conversation. And when you say that I was demeaning, what do you call this: "She is a buffoon, and an ugly one at that." posted by drivelphobe
He attacked her personally. If that isn't demeaning I don't know what is. In fact everything he said about her was demeaning.
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Try not to "think" about those things that you are not totally familiar with. It makes you look foolish.
Posted by erasmus6 at 05:26 PM : Jul 22, 2007
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Now you're really stretching it. I've been there twice and have relatives there.
Do you have some kind of problem that you have to demean everyone you disagree with?
You really should shut up because you are sounding more and more ridiculous.
Hillary wishes she was a man because she is running for president? You need to get a grip on reality, I think.
And the reason we have SOME people coming to your country for fame and fortune is they can get more attention there because you seem to have an over abundance of people that OBSESS over celebrity, also your media is out of control with reporting on the celebrity. They seem to need the attention and the ridiculous money they are paid for virtually having no ambition to get a real job. But there are some that do stay here and do quite well. And then there are some that go to your country get famous and then return home.
"But I am sure you have them: they are just not visible to the rest of the world."
Yes,we do have problems but just not to the extreme like your country. And the reason they aren't so visible is because we don't feel the need to air our dirty laundry to the rest of the world. Also your country is so self obsorbed that it wouldn't see anything even if it was visible.
"...best place on earth to live..."
Oh please! You keep convincing yourself that if that is what you need to do. How could it be the best place on earth to live when you have a pitiful health care system where people are dying from lack health care. You have poorly managed and filthy hospitals. You are being scammed and charged an arm and a leg for your medications. The list is never-ending. You might have people coming to your country because they have heard it is a better life and for some it probably is. But there are a lot of people coming there that are finding out that it isn't all it is cracked up to be and can't leave because they have no more money to get out.
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What a stupid statement! Do you have anything to back it up? Or are you just shooting from the 'lip.'
Actually, I WISH I could live in denial. I wish I could deny that: Bush is a loser, that his favorite childhood bood was written AFTER he graduated from Yale (which pretty much set the stage for all the events that followed during the past 6 years), that he started a war that we probably won't win in my lifetime (if ever), that Cheney really is a dicck, etc.
I wish I could deny my ex-wife ever existed. Speaking of my ex-wife: She lives in denial pretty well, too. Having married a philanderer and having been presented with sufficient evidence that being married to the "perfect woman" hasn't changed him, like Hillary, she just GAFs it off. She figures it's better to be married to a loser than not married at all. LOL!! Better he than me.