Bernanke: Economic Growth Will Be Slower
Fed Chairman Tells Congress Economy Likely To Expand At Moderate Rate
WASHINGTON, July 18, 2007
(AP) Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Wednesday that the economy has emerged from its anemic spell, but overall growth for the year will be lower than expected. Inflation remains the chief concern, he said.
Delivering a midyear Fed economic report to Capitol Hill, Bernanke struck a somewhat cautious tone. He suggested that the economy appears likely to expand "at a moderate pace" over the second half.
Still, the Fed chief told the House Financial Services Committee that growth this year will be a bit slower than the Fed projected in February. The inflation forecast, however, wasn't changed: It calls for prices other than food and energy to edge lower.
Against this backdrop, the Fed is likely to leave interest rates where they are through the rest of this year.
For just over a year, the Federal Reserve has held a key interest rate at 5.25 percent, providing a period of stability to borrowers. Before that, the Fed had boosted rates for two years to fend off inflation.
Bernanke took pains Wednesday to hedge the Fed's bets and outline risks to the economy.
One risk is that energy and commodity prices could continue to rise sharply, boosting the prices of lots of other goods and services and thus spreading inflation through the economy.
The Fed "has consistently stated that upside risks to inflation are its predominant" concern, Bernanke said.
Gasoline prices, which peaked in May, receded somewhat in June and are now up past $3 a gallon.
Another risk is that the housing slump could turn out worse than expected, sapping consumer spending and possibly causing overall economic growth to be weaker.
The housing market will remain sluggish for some time, partly because of some now tighter lending standards and the recent rise in mortgage rates, Bernanke said.
Even if the demand for housing were to stabilize somewhat, the pace of new home building will probably fall as builders work down excess stocks of unsold homes, he said.
"Thus declines in residential construction will likely continue to weigh on economic growth over coming quarters, although the magnitude of the drag on growth should diminish over time," Bernanke said.
Bernanke also outlined efforts by regulators to deal with problems in the market for risky mortgages. Those are mortgages made to people with spotty credit histories.
Foreclosures and delinquencies for these "subprime" mortgages have spiked. Some big subprime lenders have been forced out of business.
Borrowers and lenders have been clobbered by rising interest rates and weak home values. Congress has blasted the Fed and other regulators for not doing enough to crack down on lax lending standards, which had contributed to the problems.
"Rising delinquencies and foreclosures are creating personal, economic and social distress for many homeowners and communities — problems that likely will get worse before they get better," Bernanke said.
To better protect consumers, the Fed is looking at ways to improve mortgage disclosure and ways to curb unfair or deceptive lending practices. It also is encouraging lenders to work with troubled homeowners.
© MMVII The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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