What Happens If U.S. Leaves Iraq?

The Skinny: Military Experts Disagree With Bush Prediction That Al Qaeda Will Seize Control

(CBS)  The Skinny is Joel Roberts' take on the top news of the day and the best of the Internet.

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What would happen if U.S. combat forces left Iraq? President Bush argues that al Qaeda and Iran would take over and that terrorists would then use the country as a launching pad for attacks on the United States.

But the Washington Post reports most military experts disagree with that scenario.

According to recent "war games" exercises conducted for the U.S. military, the most likely outcome of a U.S. withdrawal is that the central government would fall apart and Iraq would effectively split into three separate nations.

But what is "perhaps most striking about the military's simulations" for Iraq after a U.S. pullout is that they do not focus on "the establishment of an al-Qaeda sanctuary in Iraq."

Civil war and increased violence are widely anticipated, however, with some military officers contending that whether Iraq splits apart or outside actors take over, "ever greater carnage is inevitable."

The Post cautions, though, that all the scenarios should be taken with a grain of salt given the accuracy of past U.S. predictions about Iraq.


Bush's Mideast Peace Push

President Bush's call for a regional conference on the future of a Palestinian state tops the front pages of The New York Times and Washington Post Tuesday morning.

The Times said Mr. Bush's announcement was an attempt to "shore up" the government of President Mahmoud Abbas and was a signal that he will use his remaining months in office "to make a major push for peace between Israelis and Palestinians."

The Times called the planned summit – the first of its kind during Mr. Bush's presidency – a "pivotal shift" for the administration and a sign of how it is "desperately seeking some kind of foreign policy victory in the volatile Middle East that would draw attention away from the war in Iraq."

The Post said the idea for the meeting only came together in recent days, "and administration officials were scrambling to figure out details yesterday" – like where and when the conference would be held, and who would attend. It's clear, however, that it would be restricted to groups that "recognize Israel's right to exist," thereby excluding Iran and Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that currently controls the Gaza Strip.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal, in the top item in its page-one news box, suggests the meeting's chances of success are limited. The Journal questions whether Abbas, "now politically and militarily weakened and confined to the West Bank," is up to the challenge. Further, the Journal said, "U.S. embrace isn’t good for a Palestinian leader's career."


Maybe You Should Just Stay Home

The month of June may have been the worst month ever for flight delays, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Canceled flights more than doubled from a year ago, according to preliminary FAA data, leaving hundreds of thousands of travelers waiting for hours, and sometimes days.

Why? The Journal attributes it to a perfect storm of, well, stormy weather, airline cutbacks and labor strife.

Add it all together and it was a travel nightmare for air passengers, with more than 30 percent of all U.S. flights for the 40 largest airlines arriving late, with an average delay of 62 minutes.


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[mcvet]

The INCOMPETENT BOOB a few call a President REALLY screw up folks. When you allow your enemy to regroup and rebuild, you have a Major Problem and WE have a major problem. Not only did he let them go in Afganistan, he made an agreement with a Dictator not to pursue them AND he creates a War that has increased their ability to get new people and could end up being a safe haven for them. We need new leadership and we need it now. Anyone who, at this point, thinks Bush and the Republican Party is competent enough to deal with this is dreaming!! Sieg Heil Bush!!

[harp1963]

Young American men and women would stop dying, a evil dictator like Saddam would emerge, genocide his own people, and restore order. Radical Islam would thrive do to Bush and Cheney taking out Saddam, the former leader of the "hated by Islamics" Baath Party. Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfield would be credited with creating the breeding ground for radical Islamics who hate America, but would desperately blame the Democrats, who have only had the majority in the Congress and Senate for six months out of the last 6 years, for the whole mess.

Oh, and American oil companies would mount ruthless covert divide and conquer missions through the CIA to take control of Iraqi oil fields anyway.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/01/09/60minutes/main592330.shtml

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/07073/769125-51.stm

[vincan-2009]

What a surprise that the bushies would be busy with fear mongering and lies to keep the feeble minds very afraid - be very afraid. Why would anyone believe anything out of the pitiful administraton of failure and corporate interests. Trying to throw a meeting together at this late date shows how much they are no up to the job.

[oakishpines]

supervan taught her troops courtesy and efficiency, but supervan had a side jo b ... at any rate, once supervans students turned to say: hey, you: supervan worried little ... she had taught her stuedents well and there is nothing like an arrest by the best ... some small child what had caught her turned to present her with a gold star and a congressional medal of honor for the spanking: an action far above and beyond the call of duty

[donnie900]

What do you mean "what happens when we leave"? If you leave someplace, you're not supposed to know what happens. Or care.

[oakishpines]

hitlers don't just stop killing jews and begin instead to feed jews that they may feed the world,

the congress will not stop filling prisons with poor minorities and start feeding them that thay may feed the world,

the congress will not stop filling wars with mideasts and start feeding them that they may feed the world,

the congress will not stop stfufing closets with immigrants stacked 20 high and start feeding them that they may feed the world,

the congress will not stop daring drugged ten year olds and start feeding them that they may feed the world,

the congress will not stop spanking naked four year olds and start feeding them that they may feedbthe world

and so on and so forth

[roach9703]

It would be EXTREMELY irresponsible to pull out U.S. Troops quickly. The result would be a humanitarian disaster like the Armenian massacre of the World War I.
We screwed up here, no doubt. But,we do not want to compound the felony. The U.S. has to work with Europe and the states in the region to work out solutions for the Shia, the Kurds and the Sunnis.
This will involve much territorial reorganization and military coordination with the nations of Europe, and the Middle East. We don't really have any other choice.

[donnie900]

Thats a buncha crappp! Get out, and mind your own business. Its very simple.

Thats the whole point! You don't manage the world. The world manages itself.

[gracchus1]

Iraq IS A MESS! It could not get any worse if we leave!

[cdfoxtrot]

Tough one. Maybe, just maybe, things would get worse (if that's possible) and then get better, in the event of American withdrawal. Is Vietnam not the best modern example of disastrous military intervention by the US? What happened there? It quickly stablized as soon as the Americans pulled out, stable government gradually took steps toward a market-based economy. Today, Vietnam is friendly towards the US and is relatively prosperous. They didn't go launching terror attacks on the US - despite the terrible atrocities committed by the Americans over there, including the use of Agent Orange. Why is it so unthinkable that an American withdrawal from Iraq would have no such benefits?

[gracchus1]

cdfoxtrot,

Your observation is correct, however, I think we all know that the U.S. will not be leaving Iraq for years, if not decades. The oil there is too profitably lucrative for oil companies to ignore. That is why Bush is pushing the Iraqi Parliament to hurriedly pass a law allowing private companies to control Iraqi oil. And Iran is next on the list. It is all about the oil and money. Both trails tragically lead to the same endpoint: destroyed countries.

[lars008-2009]

END FASCIST NAZI TERRORISLAM APARTHEID NOW!!!
DHIMMI: A BRIEF OVERVIEW
DEFINITION: The status of People of the Book (Jews and Christians) under Islamic rule.
7th-21st century. The notion of Dhimmitude, originating in the 7th century, still applies today to non-Muslims under Islamic rule%u2014whether Jews or Christians, whether in Saudi Arabia or in Sudan. Dhimmitude began in 628 CE when Mohammed and his forces conquered the Jewish oasis at Khaybar. They massacred many of the Jews and forced the rest to accept a pact ("Dhimma") which rendered them inferior to their Muslim conquerors. Over the centuries, the ideology of Dhimmitude expanded into a formal system of religious apartheid.

Institutionalized apartheid. In Shari%u2019a law, there are official discriminations against the Dhimmi, such as the poll-tax or jizya.
No legal rights. Jews may not testify in court against a Muslim and have no legal right to dispute or challenge anything done to them by Muslims. There is no such thing as a Muslim raping a Jewish woman; there is no such thing as a Muslim murdering a Jew (at most, it can be manslaughter). In contrast, a Jew who strikes a Muslim is killed.

Humiliation and vulnerability. Jews and Christians had to walk around with badges or veils identifying them as Jews or Christians. The yellow star that Jews had wear in Nazi Germany did not originate in Europe. It was borrowed from the Muslim world where it was part of the apartheid system of Dhimmitude.

[lars008-2009]

END FASCIST NAZI TERRORISLAM APARTHEID NOW!!!
DHIMMI: A BRIEF OVERVIEW

Conditional protection. The protection of the Dhimmi is withdrawn if the Dhimmi rebels against Islamic law, gives allegiance to non-Muslim power (such as Israel), refuses to pay the poll-tax, entices a Muslim from his faith, or harms a Muslim or his property. If the protection is lifted, jihad resumes. For example, Islamists in Egypt who pillage and kill the Copts do so because they no longer pay their poll-tax and therefore are no longer protected.
http://www.dhimmi.com/dhimmi_overview.htm
http://www.dhimmi.com/
http://www.dhimmi.com/victimsgallery.htm
SIGN THE PETITIONS!!!

help end fascist nazi terrorislam apartheid
http://new.petitiononline.com/CDHR2005/petition.html
http://new.petitiononline.com/CDHREU/petition.html
http://www.dhimmi.com/petition.htm
http://www.petitiononline.com/dhimmi/petition.html
http://www.dhimmi.com/action_campus.htm
http://www.dhimmi.com/action_community.htm

[lars008-2009]

UN MAKES NON MUSLIMS SLAVES
And Dhimmitude For All
Another arena requiring testimony is dhimmitude in Western institutions. This is %u201Cepitomized,%u201D writes Mark Durie, %u201Cin the slavish attitude adopted by Mary Robinson, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights,%u201D in a 2002 statement to the Organization of the Islamic Conference Symposium on Human Rights in Islam in Geneva. Like a dhimmi, she affirmed the greatness and moral superiority of Islam, implying inferiority of non-Muslim infidels, and denied any possible voice of protest against Islamic abuses of human rights.
Not surprisingly, Islamism is growing at the UN, too. On August 5, 1990, explains David Littman, the 19 members of the Islamic Conference of Foreign Ministers adopted the Cairo Declaration on Human Rights in Islam (CDHRI). This document very specifically subjugates all human rights to those accorded by Islam. [1] The CDHRI totally contradicts the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR). Yet the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights in December 1997 published it, establishing its authority as a quotable UN source. For example, the 26-member Sub-Commission on Human Rights referred to it in the preamble of a resolution adopted on August 21, 1998. [2] That Islamic human rights is gaining ascendancy and credence at the UN should be of concern to all Human Rights activists and organizations.
http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=17637

[hungry1968]

"What would happen if U.S. combat forces left Iraq?"


There's only one true scenario that's going to play out - it's going to turn into the biggest killing ground this country has seen in years. Whether the place explodes into civil war, or al Qaeda moves in and takes over, or the Shiite's and Sunni's go into all out mode, it's going to be nothing but mayhem.

All at the feet of George Bush and his republican enablers.

[ramos937]

A good question but a better one would be what would happen to the USA if we withdraw?

The administration says our FY deficit should be around $300B. Each month, we spend $12B in Iraq - this means about $144B annually. The deficit would be cut by nearly 1/2.

And/Or
We could make a very good start at Universal Health insurance for our uninsured citizens.

And/or
We could fix social security and medicare.

And/or
We could give our military enlisted/lower ranking officers a good living wage.

And/or
We could fix our roads

And/or
We could make our government run more efficiently.

And/or
We could begin to repair international relations. If we had another 9/11 in 2007, many countries would say we had it coming. Not like 9/12/2001, when every country in the world (except the PLO where we now are giving millions), including Cuba wanted to help us.

The list is endless.

But, what do we do instead. We spend $144B (plus) on a country where the citizens feel it is ok to kill American soldiers, demonstrate againist us and burn the American flag, steal aid dollars from us, do not alert our guys where the IEDs are, etc.
Is that sane?

Folks - there is a real war on terror and we have to fight it. But, we have been fighting it in the wrong way. We have to find a much better way and I do not mean turn the other cheek.

[ramos937]

You know, you can run all the war games you want; run all the computer scenarios you want; consult all of the military/diplomatic people you want and so forth. But, I truly feel that no one actually knows what will actually happen if we withdrew on an orderly systematic way.

For proof consider Vietnam. Many learned folks felt that the domino theory would take place. Today, Vietnam is one of our most valued trading partners. Our Presidents have traded visits. Even John McCain has visited Vietnam and talked to the people who imprisoned him.

[mufuart]

We should just pull back into Kuwait and see what happens; we'll still be close enough if we need to run some punishing air raids or have to go in on a more targeted scale. And, if necessary, we could always go back in. But at least by pulling back into Kuwait we can see what would happen next. Personally I think that the Palestinians already showed us what will happen next in Iraq. The militias in Iraq will fight it out among each other until one or more of them is on top, just like Hamas and Fatah in Gaza and the West Bank. And then we can decide what to do about it, if anything.

[truthspeake2]

Then, we'd have $$$ to fix some of America's problems...but in doing so, the Bushbots wouldn't have as much corruption to engage in because its so much harder to steal from Healthcare, Infrastructure, and Education programs.

[lars008-2009]

the war is legal

the resumption of hostilities was only a matter of time since iraq broke the ceasefire agreement.....

blame saddam for iraq%u2026%u2026. Even clintoon and the dems wanted the resumption of hostilities back in 1998

US Vice-President Al Gore has told Iraqi opposition politicians that the United States remains committed to the overthrow of President Saddam Hussein. BBC 6/2000
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1854092/posts

"We know that he has stored secret supplies of biological and chemical weapons throughout his country." - Al Gore, Sept. 23, 2002

"Iraq's search for weapons of mass destruction has proven impossible to deter and we should assume that it will continue for as long as Saddam is in power." - Al Gore, Sept. 23, 2002

Moreover, no international law can prevent the United States from taking actions to protect its vital interests, when it is manifestly clear that there is a choice to be made between law and survival. I believe, however, that such a choice is not presented in the case of Iraq. Indeed, should we decide to proceed, that action can be justified within the framework of international law rather than outside it. In fact, though a new UN resolution may be helpful in building international consensus, the existing resolutions from 1991 are sufficient from a legal standpoint. - Al Gore, Sept. 23, 2002
http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2004/gore/gore092302sp.html

[bennyblack1]

In spite of what everyone else says here, even in the government, what will happen in Iraq will happen with or without the US over there. It has been set into motion, and there is nothing that can be done to stop it. That is why we should be bringing our troops home to protect THIS country.

The only one who can change this pattern of events is God, and he won't. Islam will continue to grow and envelop the entire Middle East. They will continue in there violence until they have conquered everything. Then, there will be a great drought, and the Tigris and Euphrates rivers will dry up. The Islamic armies will then travel up these river beds, and attack Israel from the north, both on the ground and in the air, with intent to conquer Jerusalem, and make it the Islamic capital of the world. It will not work, because God will fight for the Jews, and those who occupy Israel, and the Islamic nation will be struck with confusion, killing themselves. There are already stories of Israeli soldiers discovering the bodies of their enemies, and no one had attacked them. They shot each other. When the Lord gets in the battle, there is no way to win. He KNOWS your motivations, thoughts, intentions, plans, directions, when, and where you will be. He will meet you there, and defeat you.

This battle is NOT the battle for the United States to fight. It is God's, and God's alone. Let go and let God. It'll save a whole lot of lives, and a whole lot of trouble.

[bennyblack1]

That is why I believe God is saying to President Bush, "Get out or get run over!" God is not his enemy, but if he continues to send troops over there, God will not alter his battle plan just because President Bush is stupid.

[lars008-2009]

Posted by bennyblack1 at 09:10 AM : Jul 18, 2007

That is why I believe God is saying to fascist nazi terrorislam, "Get out or get run over!" God is not his enemy, but if they continue to send jihades over there, God will not alter his battle plan just because fascist nazi terrorislam is stupid.

Our Prophet commanded us to fight the kaafirs when we are able and to attack them in their homelands and to give them three choices before we enter their lands: either they become Muslim and be like us, sharing our rights and duties; or they pay the jizyah (poll tax) and feel themselves subdued; or they fight, in which case their wealth, women, children and homes become permissible as booty for the Muslims.
http://islamqa.com/index.php?r
ef=13759&ln=eng&txt=before%20islam%20arabia%20pagan

[chris12karen]

In his 2006 State of the Union Address, President Bush argued that "America cannot find security by abandoning commitments and retreating to isolation within our borders." He claimed that if we retreat from Iraq, then our enemies "would simply move the battlefield to our own shores." His strategy is to engage our enemies in Iraq, pinning them there so that we can act freely in our homeland.

Sadly, while this strategy has been of limited benefit to the Western world, this same strategy has worked well for our enemies. They have engaged us in Iraq, pinning us down so that they can act freely in their own homeland.

While instantly dumping the mission in Iraq would be precipitous and foolish, the time has nearly come for a gradual draw-down in Iraq. We are overdue for a "rebuilding year" in the military. We are overdue for a fresh approach to festering problems in Pakistan, the Horn of Africa, and the Southeast Asia. And we are overdue for a fresh influx of troops from our allies, deployed in pursuit of shared aims.

[bennyblack1]

You may be following the orders of your prophet, but God is the one who is allowing it. And I don't mean Allah. Allah is not God. Allah is a meteorite idol buried in some mosque in Mecca. I am talking about the great "I AM" of the Jews. The great YWH of old, whom you know, will fight for the Jews. And you hate him, in spite of the fact that he blessed your ancestor, Ishmael, with a 12 nation state (Saudi Arabia), which now controls the oil of the world.

[bennyblack1]

Remember, it is not God's people that you are at war with. It is very God himself. And you cannot fight Spirit. Why not just give up now? You will have your day, but in a moment, after a few short years of glory, God will finish his plan, and destroy you. Don't kill the messenger. The messenger has no weapons, and is defenseless. You're fight is with God and God alone. Killing millions of innocent people isn't going to change his plans. Read the Bible, and see your plans exposed. Wouldn't you rather just stop being an angry and destructive child, and give your heart to Jesus? YOu're going to end up bowing to him anyway, why not do it of a free will?