(CBS) The Skinny is Joel Roberts' take on the top news of the day and the best of the Internet.

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What would happen if U.S. combat forces left Iraq? President Bush argues that al Qaeda and Iran would take over and that terrorists would then use the country as a launching pad for attacks on the United States.

But the Washington Post reports most military experts disagree with that scenario.

According to recent "war games" exercises conducted for the U.S. military, the most likely outcome of a U.S. withdrawal is that the central government would fall apart and Iraq would effectively split into three separate nations.

But what is "perhaps most striking about the military's simulations" for Iraq after a U.S. pullout is that they do not focus on "the establishment of an al-Qaeda sanctuary in Iraq."

Civil war and increased violence are widely anticipated, however, with some military officers contending that whether Iraq splits apart or outside actors take over, "ever greater carnage is inevitable."

The Post cautions, though, that all the scenarios should be taken with a grain of salt given the accuracy of past U.S. predictions about Iraq.


Bush's Mideast Peace Push

President Bush's call for a regional conference on the future of a Palestinian state tops the front pages of The New York Times and Washington Post Tuesday morning.

The Times said Mr. Bush's announcement was an attempt to "shore up" the government of President Mahmoud Abbas and was a signal that he will use his remaining months in office "to make a major push for peace between Israelis and Palestinians."

The Times called the planned summit – the first of its kind during Mr. Bush's presidency – a "pivotal shift" for the administration and a sign of how it is "desperately seeking some kind of foreign policy victory in the volatile Middle East that would draw attention away from the war in Iraq."

The Post said the idea for the meeting only came together in recent days, "and administration officials were scrambling to figure out details yesterday" – like where and when the conference would be held, and who would attend. It's clear, however, that it would be restricted to groups that "recognize Israel's right to exist," thereby excluding Iran and Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that currently controls the Gaza Strip.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal, in the top item in its page-one news box, suggests the meeting's chances of success are limited. The Journal questions whether Abbas, "now politically and militarily weakened and confined to the West Bank," is up to the challenge. Further, the Journal said, "U.S. embrace isn’t good for a Palestinian leader's career."


Maybe You Should Just Stay Home

The month of June may have been the worst month ever for flight delays, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Canceled flights more than doubled from a year ago, according to preliminary FAA data, leaving hundreds of thousands of travelers waiting for hours, and sometimes days.

Why? The Journal attributes it to a perfect storm of, well, stormy weather, airline cutbacks and labor strife.

Add it all together and it was a travel nightmare for air passengers, with more than 30 percent of all U.S. flights for the 40 largest airlines arriving late, with an average delay of 62 minutes.


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