Fred Thompson's Waiting Game

Republicans Remain Intrigued By The Former Senator, But Lack Of A Full Campaign Could Be Hurting Him

(CBS)  By CBSNews.com's David Miller

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Two weeks ago, Republican Rep. Zach Wamp and about two dozen of his colleagues were all set to formally announce their support for Fred Thompson's bid for the Republican presidential nomination. Then, at the last minute, a message sent from Thompson's inner circle reached Wamp: Hold off.

Since then, Wamp has been doing just that while being the most vocal advocate for Thompson, a fellow Tennessean, on Capitol Hill. Despite that, Wamp says he doesn't know when Thompson, an actor and former senator, will end the "testing the waters" phase that started June 1. At the time, media buzz suggested an official announcement around July 4.

But July Fourth came … and went. In fact, Thompson has been relatively quiet since he announced he would start raising money and exploring a bid. He played coy on a "Tonight Show" appearance. His press coverage has been less than glowing, especially after a Los Angeles Times report that Thompson once lobbied the first Bush administration, asking them to loosen restrictions on abortion counseling — a big problem for a candidate billed as the one social conservatives have been waiting for.

However, Wamp says he's not worried that Thompson's lengthy exploratory phase has stalled his presidential hopes. "There's one school of thought that as long as you're gaining, you're still in good shape," he said. "There are people receding as he's rising, so why rock that vote?"

While Wamp doesn't claim to know when Thompson will finally take the veil off his candidacy, he does drop his fair share of hints. Those congressmen who, along with him, were asked to delay an endorsement will be welcomed with Thompson at a July 28 fundraiser in Washington. Wamp says he knows that Thompson's team is planning a two-month-long push after he makes his campaign official.

"I see right now the plans being put into place for the 60 days after the announcement," he said. "It's been like drinking out of a fire hose. You see people being added to this team every week. He's doing everything a presidential candidate would do without being in the race."

That fact has proved irritating to some Democrats and Republicans, who have claimed Thompson is acting far too much like a bonafide candidate to still fall under the laws governing a "testing the waters" committee. Federal Election Commission rules say a candidate must disclose contribution amounts and donors once they take steps — be it advertising, raising large amounts of money, or openly discussing a candidacy — that show they are not merely exploring a run.

Thompson has been teetering dangerously close to doing all of those things, but was able to avoid having to file a fundraising report for the second quarter of 2007; however, it's unlikely he'll be able to keep that up through the end of the current quarter. But beyond that, there is the question of whether Thompson will benefit from the prolonged buzz of being a non-candidate or is waiting so long that he'll be unable to prevent someone already in the race — particularly Mitt Romney — from establishing themselves as the dominant conservative in the field.

"If I were him, I would carry this on as long as I can," said Mike Collins, a Republican strategist unaffiliated with any presidential candidate. "I think he's already shifting the agenda. The toughest thing in politics is to get people to give a damn. Fred Thompson has successfully gotten people to sit down and pay attention."

But if Thompson has people's attention, how much longer can he hold it? Other Republican candidates, particularly Romney, have been making strong appeals to the same conservative voters Thompson is said to attract. And Romney has done reasonably well for himself, rising to the top of polls in New Hampshire and Iowa.

"There is a cost of lost opportunity — while he's not actively engaged in the race, his active opponents, particularly Mitt Romney, are going full speed ahead with their strategy," said Tony Fabrizio, a longtime Republican pollster. "By delaying it, they are in fact setting themselves to be hoisted upon their own petard in terms of expectations."