July 16, 2007
Pure Horserace: A Midyear Review
Fundraising Reports At The Year's Midpoint Offer A Glimpse Of What's To Come
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Play CBS Video Video McCain At Rock Bottom? His campaign is virtually broke and in trouble, giving a lift to other candidates in the Republican party. But McCain hasn't thrown in the towel yet. Joie Chen reports.
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Video Democratic Candidate Cartel? CBS News RAW: A press pool microphone caught Clinton and Edwards allegedly discussing an effort to limit the number of candidates in future debates.
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Video Dems Vie For Black Vote Democratic presidential candidates debated at the NAACP national convention. Sen. Hillary Clinton is popular, but Sen. Barack Obama still has something to prove, Jennifer Miller reports.
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(AP/CBS)
Who’s in the best position going into this crucial phase? To answer that question, we need to look back at what the candidates have done with the first six months of the year. Now that all the hopefuls' fundraising reports for the second quarter of the year are available, we can get a pretty good idea of where the races in both parties stand.
It’s a cliché, but it's true: This battle will be won on the ground. Both Obama and Clinton have the resources to fully fund their side, and then some, but Clinton has a clear edge in campaign experience. Can Obama out-message her? That might be the biggest question facing his campaign.
The question of who leads the Republican contest may not be answered until the end of September, when Thompson will have presumably entered the race and releases his first fundraising reports. But right now, Giuliani should probably be less worried than Romney. Anyone backing the former New York mayor is likely more concerned with national security, terrorism and fiscal policy than they are with social issues, which are Thompson's main selling point.
So, for the next three months, the Romney-Thompson fight is the GOP's most interesting storyline. Neither has been considered a conservative standard-bearer, even though they both are trying to fashion themselves as one now. Both have had their credibility on social issues brought into question — though the case against Romney is much stronger. But the former Massachusetts governor has built an impressive organization that Thompson, not known as a tireless campaigner, will have to work hard to match.
A dismal quarter leaves McCain the position of having to build up his campaign almost from scratch, with little money to do so, while Thompson is just starting to make crucial hires. If McCain is going to make a comeback, it looks like it will have to be based on the force of his own personality — not on building a top-notch campaign staff.
Now It's On: "Obama girl" is back. The same people who gave us the YouTube hit, "I Got A Crush … On Obama" returns – with a twist. ”Obama Girl vs. Giuliani Girl” gives us a glimpse at what political debate in the YouTube world looks like these days.
It’s a sing-off/dance-off debate between three "Obama" girls and three "Giuliani" girls who make their points with such witty asides as, "Giuliani girl, just stop you fussin', at least Obama didn't marry his cousin." Well, you just have to watch it. Aside from the great publicity the group behind these videos is getting, it's also putting the presidential campaign in front of a potentially untapped audience. We'll leave it up to you to decide whether that's good for the political process. — Vaughn Ververs
Another Day, More Departures: As expected, McCain's campaign is losing more staffers —communications director Brian Jones and two of his deputies said they will be leaving the campaign at the end of the week. The departure of the trio, which had ties to ousted campaign manager Terry Nelson, was not unexpected but will spawn one more day of stories about McCain's teetering campaign.
McCain has vowed to continue and will focus his efforts in the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Campaigning in New Hampshire in recent days, McCain said he will get back to what he does best, speak to voters directly in town hall meetings and reconnecting with voters who helped him win the state in 2000. With little money in the bank and prospects for raising more uncertain, it's about the only strategy he can implement. — Vaughn Ververs
Clean Water Of A Different Kind: Romney is fond of his metaphors. On the campaign trail, he speaks of the "three legs" that keep the American "stool" stable — a strong military, a strong economy and strong families. Last week, in an article written for Townhall.com, Romney discussed the "four walls of the American home" — which was a little harder to delineate than the “three legs” analogy.
Today, Romney is taking one of his "four walls" themes to the airwaves in the form of a new 60-second ad that will begin running in Iowa and New Hampshire. The ad plays off something written by conservative columnist Peggy Noonan, who pointed to the cultural "ocean" that produces children capable of such horrifying acts such as the Columbine shootings. In the ad, Romney says, "I'd like to see us clean up the water in which our kids are swimming. I'd like to keep pornography from coming up on their computers. I'd like to keep drugs off the streets. I'd like to see less violence and sex on TV and in video games and in movies."
Romney's focus on social conservative themes has helped him emerge as the leader in Iowa and New Hampshire and today's ad continues the effort to consolidate support among a key block of primary participants, especially with Thompson's expected entry looming. But here's hoping the creative writing takes a break before we here the words, "life is like a box of chocolates. …" — Vaughn Ververs
Still On Top In New Hampshire: A new poll from the Concord Monitor finds Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney continuing to lead their respective primary contests in the first-in-the-nation primary. Clinton has an eight-point lead over Barack Obama, leading him 33 percent to 25 percent, while Romney is ahead of Giuliani 27 percent to 20 percent. McCain, who won the state in 2000, finds himself in a dead-heat with not-yet-announced candidate Thompson for third place on the GOP side.
But neither of the front-runners appears to be best-positioned for a general election in the state, as Giuliani and Obama do better in head-to-head match-ups with the opposite party candidates, according to the Monitor. Of course, the usual caveat for polls at the point in the process applies — it's early and the picture could easily look dramatically different by January, particularly after the Iowa caucuses. — Vaughn Ververs
Nader's Raiders To Ride Again? Don't look now but perennial presidential candidate Ralph Nader may be warming up for yet one more run at the White House. The three-time general election candidate spoke at the Green Party's national convention over the weekend and reiterated that he is considering running in 2008. Nader was the Green Party nominee in 1996 and 2000 and ran as an Independent in 2004.
"No other country comes close to providing voters with such a small number of choices and making third-party candidates hurdle an almost insuperable number of obstacles just to get on the ballot," Nader told the AP. Democrats in particular are unlikely to greet Nader's pleas for more choices with cheers. Many in the party blame Nader's presence on the 2000 ballot, especially the nearly 100,000 votes he received in the contested state of Florida, for keeping Al Gore from the White House. — Vaughn Ververs
Editor's note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.
By David Miller and Vaughn Ververs
© MMVII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
The secrets of tennis legend 
First you got Child molester Mark Foley on a committee that was supposedly set up to protect children.
Then you've got Reverend Haggard the minister who solicited male prostitutes and crystal methyl by night, and tells his clergy and advises Bush on how to lead a "Christian" lifestyle by day.
Then you've got Jeff Gannon, male prostitute, White House press room plant who's visited the White House on over 160 occasions (at night) for god know's what.
Then you've got Sean Hannity, a ***-monger, who isn't afraid to have his picture taken at the Bunny Ranch, a ********** in Nevada.
Then you've Newt Gingrich, the family values guy that divorced his wife while she was dying of cancer in the hospital. The same guy who was also cheating on this third or fourth wife while trying to impeach Clinton for lying about a BJ.
Then you've got Rush Limbaugh, a viagra (GROSS!!!), Oxycontin drug addict preaching "Conservative family values" to Bush's army of morons
Posted by waynabq
Don't leave out Senator "Family Values" Vitter who cheated in his hooker with another hooker.
First you got Child molester Mark Foley on a committee that was supposedly set up to protect children.
Then you've got Reverend Haggard the minister who solicited male prostitutes and crystal methyl by night, and tells his clergy and advises Bush on how to lead a "Christian" lifestyle by day.
Then you've got Jeff Gannon, male prostitute, White House press room plant who's visited the White House on over 160 occasions (at night) for god know's what.
Then you've got Sean Hannity, a ***-monger, who isn't afraid to have his picture taken at the Bunny Ranch, a ********** in Nevada.
Then you've Newt Gingrich, the family values guy that divorced his wife while she was dying of cancer in the hospital. The same guy who was also cheating on this third or fourth wife while trying to impeach Clinton for lying about a BJ.
Then you've got Rush Limbaugh, a viagra (GROSS!!!), Oxycontin drug addict preaching "Conservative family values" to Bush's army of morons