Signs Point To Rough '08 For GOP

Facts On The Ground Show Little Cause For Republican Optimism

(National Review Online)  This column was written by Mona Charen.

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Is the Republican Party standing on the edge of a cliff? It’s possible. Let's consider the bad news.

1) Fundraising. Republicans are still portrayed as the little Monopoly-man capitalists by the media, but the truth is that Democrats are now (alas) the party of the rich. As Peter Schweizer reported on National Review Online last year,

In 2004, Democrats made up 15 of the 25 individuals who gave more than $2 million to 527 groups. Of the Senate and House candidates who received "bundled" contributions that year, 9 out of the top 10 in the Senate and 8 out of 10 in the House were Democrats.

. . . In 2002, those who gave $1 million or more gave $36 million to the Democrats and only $3 million to Republicans, a 12:1 ratio.

Fundraising for 2008 has so far vastly favored the Democrats. Over the past three months, the top three Democratic candidates have raised $68.5 million compared with $48.7 million for the top three Republicans.

There may be many reasons for this Democratic advantage, including a certain reticence among those who wish to support former senator Fred Thompson (and we don't yet know how much he has raised). But Democratic House and Senate candidates, too, are outstripping their rivals.

2) Party Identification. Five years ago, the country was equally divided between the two parties, with 43 percent calling themselves Democrats and the same number identifying as Republicans. Today, according to the Pew Research Center, 50 percent identify themselves as Democrats compared with only 35 percent who say they prefer the GOP. Among young people, the trend is even more dramatic: 18- to 24-year-olds are more secular, more culturally liberal and better disposed toward the Democratic party than their elders. They are also voting in larger numbers than they once did. Additionally, party identification tends to remain stable throughout life. A voter is more likely to stay married to his party than to his spouse.

3) Hispanic voters. Hispanic voters are about 12 percent of the electorate. In 2004, President Bush received 44 percent of the Hispanic vote. In 2006, only 29 percent of Hispanics told exit pollsters that they supported Republicans. Following the immigration battles of the past year, Republicans may have cause to look back upon that 29 percent with nostalgia. Justifiably or not (and often it isn't justified), Republicans are now associated with anti-immigrant feelings.

4) The War. Losing wars — or not winning them decisively — is political poison. The Iraq War started to go south with voters when we failed to find caches of WMDs. Support eroded further when Iraq lurched drunkenly into internecine violence and disorder to the soundtrack of liberal Democrats at home blaming the president for (in Ted Kennedy's words) "lies, lies, lies." It slipped even more when the president displayed unimaginative stubbornness about tactics.

Surely fair-minded people can agree that the president was not to blame for the intelligence failure. Nor is he wrong now that failure in Iraq would be a disaster for American security. But the situation calls (and has for some time called for) a more articulate explanation than the president has proved capable of providing. We are in a position of seeking to create order in Iraq, while al Qaeda seeks to create disorder. It is orders of magnitude easier to create chaos than it is to create order. That doesn't mean it is impossible. But it will require patience and above all, will.

The president has the will all right, but he so often makes the mistake of assuming that his will is all that counts. He repeatedly assures the world "so long as I'm the president we will not withdraw." But he will not be the president much longer. It is far more important to bring the country along than just to stick to your guns. At his July 12 press conference, asked about congressional support, he said, "The job of the Congress is to provide funding." He might as well have added, "So shut up." That is failed leadership, and the Republican party may well pay a heavy price for it.

There are countervailing indicators. The economy is strong. The deficit is way down. There may be a certain weariness among voters with the Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton pattern. Democrats continue to present an image of soft-headedness on defense and security issues (viz. John Edwards' assertion that the war on terror is just a slogan). On the other hand, consider this fact from the Pew Research study: In 2002, 62 percent agreed with the statement "The best way to ensure peace is through military strength." Today, only 49 percent do.

Worried? I am.

[sjc_1]

Ya think.?..duhhh!

Signs point to a bad century for the GOP. After dufus and company have unleashed their incompetence, ignorance and evil the last 6 years, they will be lucky to get ANY elected office.

[brianbwb-2009]

And, since the gold and silver that used to be the backing for the US currency was been sold off to pay for Vietnam, (the gold standard was abolished in august of 1972)it can be credibly argued that all the US currency in circulation is just worthless paper, only having value because OPEC agreed to take payment for oil in it. In real terms, the federal reserve is just a printing press.

[brianbwb-2009]

"Dollar wise is the bottom line.' By that logic, we also have the highest Federal Revenue that we have ever had, and most Americans are much better off than they were 8 years ago, since their salaries are higher than they were then."

Even the inflation adjusted figures show the earnings of the average workers has been in decline for the past twenty years, this generation earns roughly $5,000 less than their parents did, wages did not keep pace with inflation, and this is using the "adjusted" figures.

The average you quote of being better off than 8 years ago is a result of the "Bill Gates effect"
that is, if Bill walks into a bar, on average, everyone becomes a multimillionaire. The reality is, bottom line, they are not multimillionaires, no matter how it is spun, most Americans are worse off rather by adjusted, or real terms.

A few got much richer through Bush's largesse to corporations, and their own corruption, but the skewing for averages is not accurately representative of the real US economy. The deficit is still the largest in history, and if our country lasts long enough, our grandchildren will suffer the consequences...

[opfor311]

brianbwb,

'Dollar wise is the bottom line.' By that logic, we also have the highest Federal Revenue that we have ever had, and most Americans are much better off than they were 8 years ago, since their salaries are higher than they were then.

It's not that simple. In economics, one must adjust for inflation to be able to compare apples to apples. And if one does adjust for inflation, our current deficit, while high, is no where near the highest.

Mark Twain said 'There are three types of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics.'

[brianbwb-2009]

will D1ck Cheney meet up with them later to split the loot? That kind of thinking is out there whether *** Cheney likes it or not! Hmmm.
Posted by tbweb

Wouldn't it be delicious if, after leaving the WH, Cheney goes to Halliburton for his cut, and they say "you aren't the VP anymore, you got no juice, and we're not in America, so pisofff, SSSSUCKA!

[brianbwb-2009]

to tbweb,
I must add a request not to make the assumption that I might be anti conservative, there are certain principles I believe are just plain common sense, don't spend more than you have, government has no right to legislate behavior, etc, that are part of the true conservative mindset.

However, I see the current cohort of "conservatives" as the opposite of what they say, when it comes to corporate welfare, military spending corruption, and intrusions into your private life, their "liberalism" makes even Ted Kennedy and Jerry Brown seem conservative by comparison.

[brianbwb-2009]

tbweb,

It wasn't so subtle, I distinctly remember Gingrich and his neocon sycophants apoplectically declaring that the "moral majority" absolutely condemned "evil" deficit spending, in no uncertain terms, the repetition of his drivel, coupled with the labeling any Democrat candidates for office as "tax and spend liberals" created a deafening silence when Bush Sr. took office, then proceeded to create the largest deficits known at that time.

Then, the same mouths declared that story changed to "deficits can be good for America, they spur growth, and the economy can "grow out of them".

When Clinton announced a zero deficit, they were lightning quick to note how social security was being used to fudge the numbers, and technically there was still an "evil" deficit, courtesy of the "tax and spend" Democrats.

Of course now with Bush Jr.'s largest deficits in history, the line is some variant of, "Yes, dollar wise we do have the largest defecit. Inflation weighted and as a factor of the GDP, this defecit is far from the largest." Posted by guysdigdirt.
(note the spelling of "defecit", perhaps Freudian...)

[tbweb]

Yes, dollar wise we do have the largest defecit. Posted by guysdigdirt,

Dollar wise is the bottom line. Adjusting for this, or adjusting for that, is twisting, son...
Posted by brianbwb at 01:29 AM : Jul 14, 2007,,,

There was a time when Presidents associated the Federal Governments financial books and health with how well America was doing. But now, in a very subtle switch, the Federal Government can have record deficits and live on credit, paid for with high interest rates as long as the Stock Market and private corporations and companies are doing well. But as Haliburton with close ties to D1ck Cheney has just demonstrated, you can give a corporation like Haliburton all the no bid contracts and special treatment you want, they can still just up and leave the U.S. and move to Dubai , which avoids paying taxes and future prosecution! Did Haliburton even leave a thank you very much card? Haliburton is Cheney's boys and they took U.S. billions and ran, will D1ck Cheney meet up with them later to split the loot? That kind of thinking is out there whether *** Cheney likes it or not! Hmmm.

[brianbwb-2009]

Yes, dollar wise we do have the largest defecit. Posted by guysdigdirt,

Dollar wise is the bottom line. Adjusting for this, or adjusting for that, is twisting, son...

[jn122736]

Don%u2019t get too over confident that the 2008 elections are all sewed up.

Many voters who cast their 2004 votes in precincts with electric voting machines with no paper backup may have thought they were NOT voting for Bush but they will never know for sure.
The problem now is that too many people have allowed themselves to be lured into a false sense of security because of the democratic wins in 2006, hence no demand for legislation mandating all votes have verifiable paper backups.

Controlling/changing votes in favor of ONE particular candidate, in a close presidential election, can be accomplished utilizing machines in only a few key state precincts and is far less complicated than doing so in congressional election where candidates are running for 645 separate seats.

[johnshaft4]

Perhaps, Tom DeLay, Mark Foley and "Pastor Ted's" Jesus will *** riding in on his 'family values' white stallion and save the GOP. Maybe even help untangle UnChristian Iraq...

[condumism]

"Surely fair-minded people can agree that the president was not to blame for the intelligence failure."

The National Review is a joke. Fair-minded people know that the intellignce on Iraq was clearly manipulated by the Fascist's in the White House. It is well documented that the Fascist Pigs were ready to attack Iraq even before they won the White House. What a crock of *** this National Review is in the eyes of all fair minded people.

[opfor311]

Good job, Mona....you've got the Jacobins all riled up and full of hubris. Now you just have to keep it up.

[random_radar]

Vote Republican and you get Fascism. Vote Democrat and you get Socialism. Either way, America just continues the march to Totalitarianism. It won't be long now--I hear the goosestepping in the distance.

[tejasdemo]

Republicans (voters etc) created this mess. Now, they can choke on it. Nobody's gives *** what they think.

Everybody knows Fox News is just a blatant right wing front propaganda machine.

The wheels have come off. If it hadnt of been for blatant(illegal) redistricting in the last few years, this last congressional election would have been a clean sweep of Democrats.

The country has had enough ! The politicians can play all the games they want but the general public has had it with all the BS !

[ioweign]

More twisting to get your way in a doshonest fashion. Yes, dollar wise we do have the largest defecit. Inflation weighted and as a factor of the GDP, this defecit is far from the largest. Do not try and spin your terror to fit your needs, you just look like a scab-picker trying to scare someone to think like you do.
Posted by guysdigdirt at 05:39 PM : Jul 13, 2007

guysdigdirt - Keep diggin' - It's your hole!

[guysdigdirt]

the US has the biggest deficit in history, from near zero during Clinton's run. Granted, Clinton fudged the numbers by including social security funds that were supposed to be untouchable, but even factoring in the difference, Bush is bankrupting the country, giving billions to his friends while cutting taxes for the rich, and social assistance programs for the poor.
Posted by brianbwb
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More twisting to get your way in a doshonest fashion. Yes, dollar wise we do have the largest defecit. Inflation weighted and as a factor of the GDP, this defecit is far from the largest. Do not try and spin your terror to fit your needs, you just look like a scab-picker trying to scare someone to think like you do.

[gkc99]

"Surely fair-minded people can agree that the president was not to blame for the intelligence failure."--Mouthpiece Mona.

*********! There was no failure. The "intelligence" was fixed around the desired result, as the head of British intelligence put it.

Bushit wanted this war, bent all the rules to get it, and now it is his.

But don't worry, you're going to see the Republiscums squirming like worms on a fishhook over the next 1.5 years.

And the worthless Democraps don't showing any signs of acquiring a backbone anytime soon, with the notable exception of Dennis Kucinich, who has never been afraid of speaking "truth to power" as the cliche goes.

[bluestardad]

elected representatives must reflect the will of the people!

[gunownerdan]

Why is it so easy to hate democrats and republicans?
They ask to be hated.