Is Obama The iPhone Of '08?

The New Republic: Mere Chance Can Determine The Success Of A Product Or Presidential Candidate

(The New Republic)  This column was written by Cass R. Sunstein.

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Some of the most illuminating and entertaining work in social science has recently explored what are known as "informational cascades," whose dynamics help to explain a wide range of phenomena, from surprise bestsellers to political correctness to the iPhone frenzy to student radicalism in the 1960s to emerging attitudes toward climate change to the successes and failures of political candidates.

Here's a stylized example of a political cascade: Barbara does not know which political candidate to support, but after hearing that her friend Allen supports Barack Obama, she tends to favor Obama. Charles is also undecided, but once he learns that his friends Barbara and Allen support Obama, he ends up supporting Obama too. Deborah doesn't follow politics especially closely, and she tends to like Edwards, but she joins the Obama enthusiasts after learning of the shared support of Allen, Barbara, and Charles. (How could all three be wrong?) From there, it's easy to see how her friends Ed, Frances, George, and Henrietta might fall into line too.

Of course everyone knows about bandwagons. But the recent studies have offered some real surprises. Why does one singer become a superstar, whereas an apparently indistinguishable singer is now waiting tables? Why do some books or movies become blockbusters while equally good ones flop? Observers tend to treat successes and failures as the logical outcomes of well (or poorly) laid plans, or attribute them to large, intrinsic differences among people and products. But cascades, which are unpredictable and not very logical are created by small variations and even coincidences, and these often make all the difference. A few early supporters, or a single favorable review or report, can start a "yes" cascade — just as a few early negatives, or a bad first week, can produce a devastating "no" cascade.

In a recent study of music downloads, Matthew Salganik and his collaborators found that quality was only a modest factor in determining a song's popularity, and that success could not possibly be predicted in advance. Some songs became extremely popular, and others pretty unpopular, simply because of the perceived decisions of other listeners. The authors show that small differences in initial downloads can make a mediocre song a hit, and ensure that a terrific song is treated as a mediocrity. As the authors noted, "The best songs rarely did poorly, and the worst rarely did well, but any other result was possible."

Furthermore, cascades are surprisingly fragile, because those who join them lack much information. Social support for a product, a person, or an idea can seem solid and unbreakable — but a small "shock," in the form of apparent trends or disclosure of damaging information, can unsettle things with amazing speed. Studies by political scientist Susanne Lohmann, for example, show that the fall of communism in then-East Germany was greatly spurred by an informational cascade, produced by growing turnouts during protest movements in Leipzig.

In the electoral domain, cascade effects have been crucial, making or breaking contenders in short periods. Howard Dean's cascade-fueled 2004 presidential campaign was reversed by a bad cascade, partly induced by a sound-bite — his scream following the Iowa caucuses. George Allen's presidential ambitions (and his Senate reelection campaign) died shortly after the media got hold of the macaca story and helped to create a "no" cascade. This cycle, John McCain has also been the victim of a negative cascade. Just as job applicants find themselves with no offers just because they've been rejected before, once people saw that others were not giving McCain much money, it became even harder for him to raise funds. His campaign is likely to collapse for that reason. By contrast, Barack Obama is clearly the beneficiary of a "yes" cascade. As in the case of the music downloads, his popularity has begat more popularity, and his proven ability to fund-raise has made it easier to attract other donors.

Of course, McCain's troubles and Obama's successes are not solely the products of cascade effects. To date, McCain has been a surprisingly weak candidate, hobbled by his positions on the Iraq war and immigration, while Obama has been an exceedingly strong one. But it is impossible to understand the fundraising problems of McCain, and the stunning successes of Obama, without reference to cascade effects.

An appreciation of those effects also helps to show why the national polls are much less important than many experts think. Because the early primaries will create informational cascades, it does not greatly matter if (for example) Rudy Guiliani is ahead by five points, or ten points, or fifteen points — except insofar as such differences help to create early cascade effects.

As the campaigns continue, it will be especially interesting to see when cascade effects, whether negative or positive, start to accelerate. By their very nature, such accelerations cannot be predicted in advance, but once they are underway, they are unmistakable. At a certain stage, what seemed highly speculative or merely possible becomes all but certain, as both donors and voters settle on one or another candidate in massive numbers.

After they flock, many observers will insist that the outcome was an inevitable product of the successful candidates' biography, virtues, and ideas, or that their success had some deep connection with the culture or the zeitgeist. But as with popular vacation spots and blockbuster hits, the impression of inevitability will be an illusion. In all probability, the eventual nominees will have won less because of the zeitgeist than because of their ability to manage, and to spark, favorable cascades.

[xzavierbrown]

you mean Obama is a over hyped fad?

[briannorwood]

Won't you be amazed when Barak Obama wins the Democratic nomination. And even more surprised when he defeats whichever GOP flip-flopper the ultimately try to run against him!

[bill1fj]

So far all I've seen Obama do is talk.
He should step up and take some action.
Push Congress to act on securing our borders, fining anyone that hires illegal aliens, making education more affordable and available, and helping with the health care of the elderly and disabled.
And then theres the mess in the middle east.
Action speaks louder than all this talk.
Or is Obama going to be just another "professional politician"?

[sjc_1]

As much as I like Obama and some of the things he has said, get real. We need a winner in 2008 and he is NOT it.

[brianbwb-2009]

The iPhone is an overhyped P.O.iS, you can't even change the battery without sending it to Apple for an extra 110 bucks, including the loaner, it is locked to an inferior service ATT Edge, and any improvements won't be worth spending money on, in short, the latest testament to corporate greed.

Let's all hope that Mr. Obama represents better value for money, even if he remains a Senator.

[john5051]

It%u2019s pretty funny to read comments made about a man who is simply saying what many Americans have wanted to say for years. What he is saying is simply the truth, what he is saying touches people; we do need a new direction for this country, we do need to care about one another and we do need to stop a war that is being wagged for the wrong reason. And before you folks jump on me for being un-patriotic, I am a former United States Marine and I would stand next to any marine today, even at my age. I believe if you are going to wage war, put enough people on the ground to win; shock and awe, what a joke; like all the people we were ever going to fight were in Bagdad, the people we are fighting were waving at us as we drove by. But that%u2019s not why I am writing this, Senator Obama is obviously not putting all his cards on the table, it%u2019s to early for that, I believe he is allowing people to know him, his character and his passions. Because in the long run; that is what will put him in the white house. And before you guys jump on me for being a sniveling liberal, I voted for Bush, because at the time, I thought he was a moral man, but he is just another hard headed Texan that can%u2019t get passed his own ego.

[tbweb]

Illinois is a very tough political state, you don't just waltz up to the Illinois public and become their Senator! So Obama is for real, the questions I raised early on about his candidacy all came true, the rookie mistakes and I don't mean rookie in a derogatory way, I just mean when you're new to high level politics, the pros take advantage of your every mistake and are keen to pounce on your mistakes much quicker than at the local levels as Barack has painstakingly already found out. My view? With all due respect to Obama, its not your turn and no rookies with their finger on the nuclear button!

[jlelijah]

Your article is pure ***, all the way around.

[gunshack1]

Remember the line from Charlie in "On The Waterfront", "It's not your night kid" Obama need a few more years in the senate.

[edjohn66]

I keep hearing it: "Obama is inexperienced. Obama can't win."

I wonder if people really mean "Obama is black. Obama can't win."

He is the right man for the job. He can win.

Who else do you people want? Hillary? You might as well vote Republican. She voted for the war, for tax cuts for the rich, and for the Patriot Act.

[xzavierbrown]

Posted by edjohn66 at 03:01 PM : Jul 12, 2007
+ report abuse

***
I bet that they onyl reason why you would vote for Obama is because he is "what do you call it again"..oh..because he is black. because if you are going to base your vote on anything aside for him being black and it is hip..you dont have anything to go on with.

why is obama the 'right man for the job'?

[deborahcox05]

I really like this guy - but he needs more experience.

After Hillary finishes her 8 years in the White House, I'll vote for him.

[xzavierbrown]

what is obama's revolutionary vision of the future???BLAME THE WHITE MAN FOR EVERYTHING??

hell al sharpton used and abused that already. he prety much has a patent on the *** thing.

[jacksteen1]

Why does the title of this article trivialize this man - however inexperienced he may be - and try to make him into some sort of buzzword ?

Was John Kennedy the Play-Dough of 1960 ?

What utter sophomoric ********* writing this is !

[random_radar]

"I really like this guy - but he needs more experience.
After Hillary finishes her 8 years in the White House, I'll vote for him.
Posted by DeborahCox05 at 09:50 PM : Jul 12, 2007"

That is exactly what Obama is hoping for. He would be the most surprised man in American to win this time around. He is laying the groundwork to win a future election. So far, he is doing a phenomenal job of campaigning, so I would pick him to be the first black president...in 2016.