A Formula For Victory In Iraq

The Weekly Standard: The Bush Administration's New Strategy Will Likely Succeed

(Weekly Standard)  Tal Afar was a stronghold of the Sunni Arab insurgency and al Qaeda on the road from Syria into the heart of Iraq. As in Falluja, the enemy had prepared sophisticated defensive positions and terrorized the local population into providing support. McMaster had a number of advantages over the Marines in Falluja, however. He had a larger number of trained and reasonably reliable Iraqi soldiers, the first fruits of a new effort to build an Iraqi army capable of conducting counterinsurgency efforts. He was also able to establish outposts in and around the city, develop a sophisticated intelligence picture, and shape the situation to his advantage before beginning the major clearing operation. The result was a marked success. The 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment isolated the city with a berm to control access and then cleared it house-to-house in conjunction with the Iraqi army. Some insurgent cells fought back determinedly, but the Coalition forces cleared the city without destroying it, and gained the support of the population in the process.

Tal Afar had been cleared twice before September 2005, and both times had immediately fallen back into the hands of the insurgents. Although U.S. forces in the area were again reduced sharply after this operation, the situation did not deteriorate rapidly or completely. Promised reconstruction aid from the Iraqi central government arrived in Nineveh only a few months ago, and tensions rose in the city in 2006, in part because the Iraqi government replaced several key provincial leaders with Shia extremists. Nevertheless, Tal Afar has not been retaken by the insurgents, and a spectacular suicide truck bomb in March 2007 did not trigger a renewal of sectarian strife. A few days of tit-for-tat sectarian killings followed, but the local government and Iraqi police and army units with very little Coalition support managed to bring the situation under control and stop the killing.

Nineveh Province today is held by 18,000 Iraqi army soldiers, 20,000 Iraqi police, and a small number of Americans. Al Qaeda and Sunni insurgent cells operate in the province, particularly in Mosul, but have not been able to take it over or establish uncontested safe havens. Operations in 2005, although inadequately followed up and sustained, created a lasting change in a critical province of northern Iraq.

Ramadi, 2006

Early in 2006, the U.S. military command withdrew the additional forces introduced to support the elections, and thereafter resisted all suggestions of a more active posture or a larger American presence. In 2006 the focus was on training the Iraqi military and transitioning responsibility for security to the Iraqis. It was hoped that the results of the 2005 elections would lead to the political progress that was seen as the key to reducing violence, and Generals John Abizaid and George Casey believed that an active American presence was an irritant that caused more trouble than it cured. They also feared that American forces conducting counterinsurgency operations would allow the Iraqi forces to lie back and become dependent on the Coalition. The overall U.S. posture in the first half of 2006, therefore, remained largely defensive and reactive, and the military command aimed to reduce the number of American forces in Iraq as rapidly as possible.

In the meantime, the situation was deteriorating dramatically. Al Qaeda terrorists destroyed the Golden Dome of the al-Askariya Mosque in Samarra (a Shiite shrine in the predominantly Sunni Arab province of Salahuddin), and a wave of sectarian violence swept Iraq. Within days more than 30 mosques had been bombed, and death squads began executing civilians across the country in large numbers in tit-for-tat sectarian murders.

The failure to follow up either on the successes in Falluja in 2004 or on the beginnings of clearing operations in the Upper Euphrates in 2005 allowed Anbar Province to sink deeper into the control of Sunni insurgents and al Qaeda terrorists. As late as August 2006, the Marine intelligence officer for the province declared that it was irretrievably lost to the enemy.

Nevertheless, the Marines and Army units in Anbar began a series of quiet efforts to regain control that ultimately led to spectacular and unexpected success. They began to engage local leaders in talks, particularly after al Qaeda committed a series of assassinations and other atrocities against tribal leaders and local civilians as part of an effort to enforce their extreme and distorted vision of Islamic law. U.S. forces under the command of Colonel Sean MacFarland also began a quiet effort to apply the clearing principles honed through operations in Falluja, Sadr City, and Tal Afar to Ramadi. There were never enough forces to undertake such operations rapidly or decisively, and success never appeared likely, at least to outside observers, who focused excessively on the force ratios.

But the effort was successful beyond all expectations. The tribal leaders in Anbar came together to negotiate an accord that ultimately produced the Anbar Awakening, an association of Anbar tribes dedicated to fighting al Qaeda. Recruiting for the Iraqi Security Forces in Anbar increased from virtually zero through 2006 to more than 14,000 by mid-2007. As the 2007 surge forces augmented U.S. troops in Anbar and began to change the political dynamic in Iraq, efforts to clear Ramadi and bring overall violence in the province under control also peaked. As New York Times reporter John Burns noted after a recent visit to Ramadi, Anbar's capital has "gone from being the most dangerous place in Iraq, with the help of the tribal sheikhs, to being one of the least dangerous places." And the Anbar Awakening movement has spread to Sunni tribes in neighboring areas. Parallel organizations have developed in Babil, Salahuddin, and Diyala provinces, and even in Baghdad. As the new strategy of 2007 took hold, U.S. forces found that they could even negotiate and work with some of their most determined former foes in the Sunni Arab insurgency — groups like the Baathist 1920s Brigades that once focused on killing Americans and now are increasingly working with Americans to kill al Qaeda fighters. Coalition operations in Anbar, which looked hopeless for years, have accomplished extraordinary successes that are deepening and spreading.

Baghdad, 2006

The worsening sectarian violence after the al-Askariya Mosque bombing led General Casey to conduct two operations aimed at restoring stability in Baghdad. Dubbed Operations Together Forward I and II, they involved surges of fewer than 10,000 additional U.S. troops and a relatively small number of Iraqis into the capital to conduct clearing operations. Inadequate planning and preparation for the movement of the Iraqi battalions into Baghdad led to the refusal of many of those units to show up. The plans, moreover, relied on Iraqi forces to hold cleared neighborhoods on their own, while U.S. forces moved on to other troubled areas.

These operations failed. Six months of intense sectarian conflict had led many members of the mostly Shiite Iraqi police into death squads. They were not and could not be effective bulwarks on their own against sectarian violence of which they were a part. The fact that most Iraqi army formations did not show up reduced the force ratios necessary to clear neighborhoods and deprived the Iraqi command, which was poorly organized, of resources vital to holding areas that U.S. forces cleared. The very small increase in American combat power (two additional brigades in Baghdad, but no overall increase in the American force levels in the theater) was inadequate to gain control of the situation. Sectarian killings dropped during the first two weeks of the second, and larger, operation, but then rapidly rose above pre-operation levels and continued to rise for the rest of the year. By November, Operation Together Forward II had mostly ground to a halt, having made no lasting improvement in the situation.

Lessons of the Past

A number of clear lessons drawn from these operations have informed the current strategy. First, political progress by itself will not reduce the violence. From May 2003 through mid-2006, the Bush administration and the military command focused on political progress as the key. The transfer of sovereignty in mid-2004, the election of a Transitional National Assembly in January 2005, the approval of a new constitution by referendum in October 2005, and the election of a fresh National Assembly in December 2005 were all expected to subdue violence by creating an inclusive and balanced government.

[sjc_1]

The original plan for the surge was to secure Baghdad and now they are out in the hinter lands busting down doors, claiming to get the bomb making factories. Which is it? Is this a search and destroy mission or a secure the city surge?

Iraq is an area the size of Texas and you are trying to secure it using 140,000 troops that would just about fill two football stadiums on a Sunday. There is NO way you are going to secure the country and NO way you are even going to come close to getting all the bad guys!

[bluestardad]

IRAQI CONGRESS GOES INTO A MONTH RECESS DURIN AUGUST! THIS IS JULY FOR YOU KOOL AID DRINKING BUSHITS!

HERE IS A GENERALS ASSESMENT FOR YOU DUEL PASSPORT HOLDING PIMPS!

I would love to see the AIPAC powered dead-brains at the Weekly Standard address this analysis:

"Gen. William Odom discusses the %u201Cworst strategic disaster in American history,%u201D the war in Iraq: the view of most generals that the war is wrong, the failure of the politicians to see the consequences of their actions, the centrality of the neoconservatives and the Israel lobby in pushing for the Iraq invasion, the %u201Csurge,%u201D

www.antiwar.com/blog/2007/05

/10/gen-william-odom
Posted by FeelFree1 at 04:50 PM : May 11, 2007


GENERALS DID NOT COME UP WITH THE SURGE PLAN THE AEI DID! ITS A PRO-ISRAELI THINK TANK IN WASHINGTON!

Contact Information Reuel Marc Gerecht

American Enterprise Institute
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20036
Assistant: 202-862-5926
Fax: [phone]
E-mail: [e-mail]


Why not send this chickenhawk an email? Tell him how impressed we all are by his "analysis".

This is a guy who worships Kristol, Perle, Wolfowitz, et al. the neocons who contributed to this Bushit War.

Israeli supporters Masquerading as Americans!

CONTACT YOUR ELECTED OFFICIAL and CONFRONT them http://www.visi.com/juan/congress/ REALY DO SOMETHING TO SUPPORT THE TROOPS!

[harp1963]

NEVER NEVER EVER VOTE REPUBLICAN AGAIN!!!!!!

[SIDNEYWILLIAMSMD]

If this works, and lets keep our fingers crossed, it will be due to a new military genius General Petraeus, who will be on parr with McArthur or Ike. Then the democrats and republicans can start tearing him up out of fear he will gain the imagination and loyalty of the American people.

[down-ndirty]

Well, if this is successful then it will be a 180 degree turn-around and a friggin' miracle for Bush. So far, in his entire life, he has not succeeded at anything worthwhile.

Everything he has touched has been a complete disaster and there's no reason to believe that this won't be just another one. Plus, considering that he shirked his military duties, there's no reason to believe that he is a "military tactician." LOL!!!

[wogerwabbit]

You neocons are so pitiful you don't even know what you're saying anymore. Bush is a loser... you guys are all losers... so, get over it. Six years of in your face liberal bashing has come back to haunt you. You backed a *** and won't ever admit it... more testimony to your stupidity. Losers... I puke on you!

[gkc99]

The Marines were not allowed to follow up on their success in Falluja, however. No effort was made to clear and hold Ramadi or the Upper Euphrates Valley for more than a year."

So Kagan's already starting the neocon loser whine about how the military was supposedly "not allowed" to win, ala Vietnam.

So who stopped them? Surely not a supine Republiscum Congress. Surely not the President or his handler, the sociopathic Darth "Chickenshit" Cheney. Surely not a packed Supreme Court. Surely not the marginalized Dems. Surely not the "cut and run liberals" who have been totally ignored by the power structure.

So who stopped them, Kagans? Tell us, we want to know.

[dogsoul]

"Sad. Very, very sad. And for the record, we have already failed in Iraq. Its over. Stick a fork in it, its done."

...the only thing missing from that statement was Allah Akbar!

[xzavierbrown]

The DNC and the liberals' formula is easy...

appease and surrender..then hope that allah's will would spare thier liberal lifestyle..I wonder how they deal with homosexuals in middle east..make sure they wear thier "i am about to get stonned to death" outfit when that time comes

[xzavierbrown]

Posted by marcodele at 04:22 PM : Jul 10, 2007
+ report abuse

******

for the record, for the left-winged liberals..any effort is a failure because it fails to satisfy the demands of your masters.

Rush Limbaugh??Fox news??

have you seen the motley crue of liberal sources of garbage?? hell even Al Franken, a c-rated comedian, is preaching politics now..comedy central has a new cartoon motivating the liberal base with CARTOONS..yes CARTOONS!! how else can you get enough attention span from these liberals without the use of cartoons and hand puppets.

btw...since when did you start believing in God?

[marcodele]

My God how much Rush Limbaugh and Fox News does one little neocon brain have to absorb to be able to make this statement:

"the American left has formed an alliance with Al Queda"

Sad. Very, very sad. And for the record, we have already failed in Iraq. Its over. Stick a fork in it, its done.

[dogsoul]

It's true, the American left has formed an alliance with Al Queda to defeat their common foes, George Bush & the Republican party. Like Al Queda & other Islamic radical groups, the American left desperately wants the mission in Iraq to fail albeit for slightly different reasons. For Al Queda, it would represent a demoralizing defeat for America, the prevention of a potentially viral dose of democracy in the heart of the middle east, and an opportunity to establish a radical Islamic gov't in its place. For the American left, it would represent a demoralizing defeat for Bush & the Republican party, boosting their chances for greater political power. Like most such alliances, the cooperative efforts of the 'enemy of my enemy' are short lived. If the Al Queda & American Left coalition succeeds. Radical Islam will have emboldened its cause & broadened it's influence throughout the middle east while restructuring, reviving, & creating better & more bases of operation from which to launch more attacks against western targets. And the American Left will have gained the Presidency & perhaps a majority in the House & Senate while touting the 'Blame Bush' mantra as attacks against America & her allies come to fruition in spite of their efforts at withdrawl, appeasement, diplomacy & isolationism. In this scenerio, the long range advantage clearly favors Al Queda & other radical Islamic groups over the American Left... and well over the American Middle & Right.

[tejasdemo]

Yes, and they overwhelmingly support the President. They continue by saying that surrendering in Iraq would besmirch the sacrifice of their loved ones. Harry 'I surrender" Reid and Nancy 'Dog Face' Pelosi are our greatest enemies.
Posted by mbcsmith at 11:01 AM : Jul 10, 2007

Complete lie ! Show me this poll.

[delfmast]

www.editorialstaff.net Franklin D. Lomax The misguided US decision to disarm Iraqi families is still, now, preventing the common Iraqi from killing a few of the various murder squads that Saudi, Iranian, Syrian, Jordanian et al despots and their citizens are financing, with our petro dollars. We disarmed the law-abiding family people, and served them up, as raw red meat, just as we do, in England, Canada, Australia, and Washington DC, to the criminals, including the organized criminal gangs/militias free to rape and ruin their neighbors in no go zones. Freed Iraqis must be allowed to choose, to "Live free, or die", just like New Hampshire's citizens. Free, and safe cell phone and internet coverage, and rearming the people will eliminate the insurgency, and allow the Iraqi people to turn in IED setters, bomb factories, and militia raids, without being killed, instantly, by their own government's rogue elements. Cash rewards are useless to the dead. Make it safe to talk to Pax American Coalition forces, and we can buy the heads of every insurgent in Iraq, and every Iranian IED supplier as well. Pay secret, and safe rewards, arranged on safe, and easy internet capable, video capable cell phones, and we can buy our way out of this mess in six months. Their blood is on our hands, until they are enabled to choose freedom, and are safe to turn in the bad guys.

[sjc_1]

The Weakly Slander has got to be kidding, there is NO such thing as victory in Iraq. Imagine what you think the word victory means. Ticker tape parades after WWII, or maybe the boys coming home to their families.

Please people, the word victory is a trigger to get people to perk up and say "one for the gipper" and let's all do our part for the boys over there. You are being manipulated YET again. Do not fall for this. There is NO such thing as victory in Iraq.

Iraq was and is an illegal and immoral war based on lies. You can no more have a "victory" on this mess anymore than you could turn a sow's ear into a silk purse. It was corrupt from day 1 and always will be. There is no victory and never will be for such in immoral shame such as this.

[andor3]

"Victory" doesn't have any meaning in a civil war, which is the situation in Iraq. You might create some temporary suppression of violence in a tiny area by massive security presence, but it isn't sustainable security or peace.

And we don't know if we are on the side of "the good guys" unless you are foolish enough to believe whatever side we support is the good guys.

The real failure is the narcissistic leaders who label everything as black or white, victory or surrender. The real world is shades of gray and a conflict can end with no victor or defeated.

When you are going down a path that leads nowhere, the best choice is to stop and turn around.

[tucano2]

What was that being smoked while this blog was being written?

[kevboom]

"You win hearts and minds. Unfortunatley the left in this country has formed an alliance with Al queda. They both continualy root for the death of american soldiers and the failure of the United states."

Get over yourself. Your president is a traitor who started an illegal war for the benefit of his military contractor buddies, unseated a dictator in fragile control of a third world country with warring factions, creating chaos and civil war that will last for decades, resulting in the deaths of thousands of U.S. soldiers, tens of thousands of innocent civilians, and unending damage to the U.S. economy and world perspective on Americans, no doubt leading to future terrorist actions. No one on the left is rooting for al qaeda or the demise of the United States. Quite the opposite you dolt. We're rooting for the impeachment of a lying, corrupt thief, so the real patriots can start repairing the massive damage done by an idiot from Texas. You really think this war is about winning people's "hearts and minds"? Please. A fourth grader could reason through that propaganda better than you. http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/06/12/iraq.contractors/index.html

[antoniof123]

I just don't understand how these neo cons can continue to breath the air they are too stupid to know how.

[Syndicate]

Anyone hear about the Iraqis who have had enough of Al queda? The ones who saw some terrorist planting a road side IED and violently detained them. The ones who tell us were the ammo is stored. The ones who point out bad guys. The Iraqis are sick of being blown up and have realized they have to fight for a better future. Thats how you win in Iraq. You win hearts and minds. Unfortunatley the left in this country has formed an alliance with Al queda. They both continualy root for the death of american soldiers and the failure of the United states. I will never forgive the Left for this outrage.