July 9, 2007
A Formula For Victory In Iraq
The Weekly Standard: The Bush Administration's New Strategy Will Likely Succeed
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Will Bush Bend On Iraq?
Only On The Web: With a new report due on progress in Iraq, and several key Republicans calling for a change in war strategy, a showdown may be brewing on Capitol Hill. Bill Plante reports.
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Battle For Iraq
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The new strategy for Iraq has entered its second phase. Now that all of the additional combat forces have arrived in theater, Generals David Petraeus and Ray Odierno have begun Operation Phantom Thunder, a vast and complex effort to disrupt al Qaeda and Shiite militia bases all around Baghdad in advance of the major clear-and-hold operations that will follow. The deployment of forces and preparations for this operation have gone better than expected, and Phantom Thunder is so far proceeding very well. All aspects of the current strategy have been built upon the lessons of previous successful and unsuccessful Coalition efforts to establish security in Iraq, and there is every reason to be optimistic about its outcome.
The first phase of the new strategy unfolded over five months — between the president's announcement of the "surge" on January 10 and the arrival of the last of the five additional Army brigades and Marine elements in early June (though critical enablers for those combat forces have only just arrived). As the new units entered Iraq, commanders began pushing forces already in the theater forward from their operating bases into outposts in key neighborhoods of Baghdad and elsewhere. The purpose of these movements was to establish positions within those key neighborhoods and to develop intelligence about the enemy and relationships of trust with the local communities.
Also during this first phase, additional Iraqi security forces were deployed to Baghdad in accordance with a plan developed jointly by the U.S. and Iraqi military commands. All of the requested units were provided. The Iraqi military has just completed its second rotation of units into Baghdad; as before, all of the designated units arrived, and they were generally closer to being fully manned than in the first rotation.
The new U.S. troops have increased the available combat power in Iraq by about 40 percent, from 15 brigades to the equivalent of 21 brigades. Generals Petraeus and Odierno allocated only two of the additional Army brigades to the capital. The other three Army brigades and the equivalent of a Marine regiment they deployed in the surrounding areas, known as the "Baghdad belt." There, under the guise of Operation Phantom Thunder, they are now working to disrupt the car-bomb and suicide-bomb networks that have been supporting al Qaeda's counter-surge since January.
But this second phase is designed primarily to support the clearing and holding operations in Baghdad itself, which will continue for many months. It is those operations that are meant to bring lasting security to Iraq's capital and thus create the space for political progress.
The United States has not undertaken a multiphased operation on such a large scale since the invasion, so it is unsurprising that many commentators are confused about how to report and evaluate what is going on. Indeed, the current effort differs profoundly from anything U.S. forces have tried before in Iraq. As Coalition forces begin the attempt to establish sustainable security in Baghdad and its environs, it is worth reviewing past major combat operations in Iraq, since their clear lessons have informed planning for the current, much larger campaign.
Falluja, 2004
The U.S. Marines fought two big battles in Falluja, the easternmost major city in Anbar province not far from Baghdad, in the spring and fall of 2004. The enemy was a dense network of al Qaeda fighters and Sunni Arab insurgents who had prepared defensive positions throughout the city and had considerable support from the local population. The initial assault was ordered on short notice after the kidnapping and execution of several American contractors, whose bodies were prominently displayed from a bridge.
The Marines were not given adequate time to prepare for the attack. They could not establish forward outposts in the city, develop adequate intelligence about the enemy, or gain the trust of the population. The American command did not fully prepare the Iraqi government for the intensity of the battle or the controversy it was bound to generate. As a result, the Marines' initial assaults resulted in heavy casualties and collateral damage. The Iraqi government was shaken, and the Marines were ordered to abandon the effort and rely instead on local forces to restore order in the city. Lacking troops, training, and support, the local allies were quickly either turned or slaughtered, and al Qaeda and the insurgents strengthened their hold on Falluja and Anbar generally.
The second Marine attack, in the fall, was much more successful. The local units were reinforced and given time to develop a much clearer intelligence picture, as well as to obtain local allies, although those were still few and unreliable. The much better-planned attack cleared the city, although with considerable collateral damage resulting largely from the sophistication of the defenses the enemy had been able to establish during the pause between the two attacks.
The Marines were not allowed to follow up on their success in Falluja, however. No effort was made to clear and hold Ramadi or the Upper Euphrates Valley for more than a year. In the meantime, the area between Falluja and Baghdad, including the Abu Ghraib neighborhood on the western outskirts of the capital, was left largely devoid of American forces and remained a major Sunni Arab insurgent and al Qaeda base. Nevertheless, Falluja was fairly stable for many months after the Marine attack, only slowly sinking back into chaos and enemy control.
Najak and Sadr City, 2004
The summer of 2004 also saw the only major combat between Coalition forces and Moktada al-Sadr's Mahdi army, or Jaysh al-Mahdi. This took place in the Shia holy cities of Najaf and Karbala and the Baghdad neighborhood of Sadr City. The Sadrist uprising followed close on the heels of the first Battle of Falluja, and it seemed briefly that the Coalition might be defeated simultaneously by Sunni insurgents and Shia militias across Iraq. But U.S. forces rapidly regained control of the situation in Sadr City, where Major General Chiarelli's 1st Cavalry Division restored order. Fighting in Najaf was greatly complicated by the fact that the Sadrists took up positions in and near the Imam Ali Mosque, one of Shia Islam's most sacred sites. Skillful Coalition military operations dislodged the Sadrists from those positions without significant damage to the shrine, and killed many Sadrist fighters in the process.
The battles of Sadr City and Najaf continue to influence the situation in Iraq today. Sadr appears to have learned from these battles that his militia cannot stand up to American forces in pitched battles. He has avoided situations that might lead to such fights, preferring hit-and-run attacks, the use of IEDs (and now EFPs, explosively formed projectiles), and death-squad attacks on Sunni Arabs after the bombing of the Samarra Mosque in February 2006. The successes in Najaf and Sadr City were fleeting in another respect, however. U.S. forces left both areas quickly, and the Sadrist militias retook control of them within months. The Sadrists remain largely in control of Najaf and were long uncontested in Sadr City, although recent events have greatly complicated their situation there.
Tal Afar And The Upper Euphrates, 2005
After the uprisings of 2004, the United States focused its efforts on moving the political process forward in Iraq and on training the Iraqi army and National Police. It was widely expected in the government and especially in the military leadership that political progress would translate directly into improved security. It was also believed that the onus for conducting what military operations were necessary should fall on the nascent Iraqi military to the maximum extent possible.
Nevertheless, the Coalition command understood that only U.S. forces could provide the short-term security necessary for elections. The command requested and received significant reinforcements to this end in late 2005. The most dramatic battle before the elections came in September 2005, when Colonel H.R. McMaster's 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment cleared Tal Afar, a city in Nineveh Province between Mosul and the Syrian border.
By Frederick W. Kagan and Kimberly Kagan
© Copyright 2007, News Corporation, Weekly Standard, All Rights Reserved.
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See all 91 CommentsWhat else is there to say after his tracj record!
A Formula For Victory In Iraq - AGAIN!
I remember when the USSR would come up with these 5 year plans for this and a 5 year plan for that, anybody else remember those? Was it the late 50's and early 60's? The Shrub's Choice Conflict reminds me of one of those plans. Well, why wasn't this formula done after 'Mission Accomplished'?
It's 2007 - are we there YET!
This article illustrates the differences between former action and the current plan as designed by Generals Petreus and Odierno. Bush, though you obviously hate him so, did not formulate the current plan. But I doubt you read the article and only made it as far as the contributor.
For myself, though I have differing opinions on this war, found this analysis helpful. It clearly describes what we did in the past and how our military has adapted.
And as the Kagens make clear, this is no guarantee for success. But there is progress being made. And for that I am grateful and proud.
Dead-brained traitors like Frederick W. Kagan and Kimberly Kagan, have little choice but to cheer on the illegitimate Bush regime butchers to the bitter end, for they know that they may well find themselves before a war crimes tribunal one day, along side the Bush puppet and his handlers.
Fortunately, only 1 in 4 Americans are suseptable to the boot-licking blather of these treasonous dupes.
None of these neo-con war monger types like Kagan seem capable of learning from history. When you invade a country and occupy it, it's only a matter of time before the locals rise up against you. Simple as that.
Withdrawal from Vietnam eventually resulted in a peaceful, stable economy whose people are now very friendly toward Americans. Let's try the same thing with Iraq. Can't hurt, can it?
Not one single thing Bush has done in Iraq has been successful. There never was a well thought out plan on invading besides the "Invade, remove Saddam, install Iraqi govn in 6 weeks" plan and that was never realistic.
Every subsequent plan has failed.
First we have the "Stay the Course" which didn't work.
Ten comes the "Stand up, we will stand down", that didn't work.
How about the "Together Forward" or "clear hold build" plan. That didn't work.
Now we have Together Forward 2 or Surge plan and it is not working.
Look, the basic problem here besides not enough troops, is real simple.
THE IRAQI PARLIMENT IS A JOKE!!!!!!!
Right now the Turks are planning an invasion of North Iraq to battle the Kurds. The Sunnis are boycotting the parliment.
Until the Iraqi govn takes hold and brings all these parties together, no matter what the US does, there will be only death and destruction.
Brilliant comedy!
Clown Punditry at its finest.
There is no victory to secure. There is nothing to win when you go to war on a lie.
Kagan, my main man, Yo, you gotta score me some of whatever you been smokin' or dropping, 'cause it's gotta be some outrageous sh*t. I can't wait to get totally blown away by the stuff you been doin'.
Maybe you can score some of that righteous stuff to the dude who's been rotated to a war zone for the fifth time. He could use a little "adjustment" to reconcile the disconnect between serving your country and serving as cannon fodder for El Presidente.
But then again, you never had to lay your keester on the line for any reason. So why should we expect any reasoned dialog from you about duty, responsibility, true patriotism, etc.?
In short, stick it up your collective *ss, you coddled, simpering, wusses.
"Phantom Thunder" is a bigger woodie than "The Surge." And since the surge is basically failing, we can now have Rush and Fox News focus on how Americans should show their respect for "Operation Phantom Thunder." Because with a name like that, it must be good.
Great idea Karl!
The puppet-officials in Iraq lack any legitimacy and authority, and do not have the support of the Iraqi people.
The Iraqi people have every right to defend themselves against the brutal and illegal invasion of their country, and against collaborators, including the currently installed 'officials'.
'al-Qaeda-in-Iraq' appears to be a shabby hoax, aimed at tying the illegal and disgraceful invasion of Iraq to the 'War on Terror', where no such 'link' exists, contrived as a divide and rule tactic by the illegitimate Bush regime against the people of Iraq, and as a pathetic excuse for continuing the illegal war where no justification exists.
The illegal U.S.-led invasion of Iraq is a crippling military, economic, and moral defeat for the people of the U.S., and we must bring those responsible for it before a war crimes tribunal, if we ever hope to recover from this grave error.
Whose left in the coalition? Prince Harry can't play. I think its the U.S. troops and two guys from Greece in "The Coalition."
"I'm a Co-aliter, not a divider." GWBush
"Phantom Thunder" is a bigger woodie than "The Surge." And since the surge is basically failing, we can now have Rush and Fox News focus on how Americans should show their respect for "Operation Phantom Thunder." Because with a name like that, it must be good.
Great idea Karl!
Posted by marcodele at 03:07 PM : Jul 09, 2007
Go Phantom Thunder !!! yeehaww..ride the like the wind !!!
Lolololololololol
Moron - Bush, Cheney, Weekly Standard.
Re: "the only way to win middle east, is to expand out of Iraq and move on to where the sources of these insurgency. Syria and Iran."
Spoken like a true Israeli-firster, and PNAC dead-ender.
http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/103.html
During the weekend over 160 Iraiqs died by violence as did eight our of your guys. And that is progress?
Can someone on the far right as these two guys are ever wake up and realize that the bad guys will never meet us head-to-toe. With our air power and navy power, we would wipe them out before our ground power ever came into play. So, they will never have pitched battles with us. When we are too strong in one place, they show up in another place.
Please lock up these two yahoos for their own safety.
TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE!
www.brasschecktv.com/page/103.html
Thanks for posting. I had not seen this film.
Well, if the "strategy" is to do nothing different, continue letting people die in the hundreds, wait for the 2008 elections and then blame whoever wins for "losing Iraq", yeah, it's a "slam dunk". Stinks as strategy, but these scab-eating death cultists couldn't care less about our soldiers OR the Iraqis.
As commander in chief, it is his plan. He owns it, and our fellow citizens are paying for it, not to mention the untold number of Iraqis.
Expand out of Iraq with what??? The surge troops?? They can't even get out of Baghdad, for christ sake!! Use the Iraqi soldiers???
Have you not paid attention to what has been happening this last 4 years.
go the PBS.org and watch the Frontline segment called End Game. It sums up how and why we are stuck in Iraq very well, and trust me on this, not one of the generals interviews, all of them Iraq vets, think we should expand the war.
Jesus, what a nut case......
A FORMULA FOR DEATH
BY
THE WEEKLY NAZI
This video shows how corruption ensnared this war, how it will never be won with Republicans in office, and that Bush is likely guilty of treason.
Hungary *** 0 Withdrew troops: Mar. 2005
Nicaragua 0 Withdrew troops: Feb. 2004
Spain 0 Withdrew troops: Late-Apr. 2004
Dominican Republic 0 Withdrew troops: Early-May. 2004
Honduras 0 Withdrew troops: Late-May. 2004
Philippines 0 Withdrew troops: mid-Jul. 2004
Thailand 0 Withdrew troops: Late-Aug. 2004
New Zealand 0 Withdrew troops: Late-Sep. 2004
Tonga 0 Withdrew troops: mid-Dec. 2004
Portugal 0 Withdrew troops: mid-Feb. 2005
Singapore**** 0 Withdrew troops: Mar. 2005
Norway 0 Withdrew troops: Oct. 2005
Ukraine 0 Withdrew troops: Dec. 2005
The Netherlands 0 Withdrew troops: Mar. 2005
Japan 0 Withdrew troops: Jul. 2006
Italy 0 Withdrawal troops: End of Nov. 2006
Slovakia 0 Withdrew troops: End of January 2007
The fact that these authors even reference "The Coalition" tells me they're about as honest as Fox News.
What have you two been smoking !?!
I can always count on the dead-brains and traitors at the Weekly Standard, when I need a whiff of the 'New World Odor'.
The American Enterprise Institute (Pro-Israeli Think Tank) came up with this Surge Plan Not American Generals! Bush fired them cause they did not want to surge troops!
Contact Information Reuel Marc Gerecht
American Enterprise Institute
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20036
Assistant: 202-862-5926
Fax: 202-862-4875
E-mail: RGerecht@aei.org
Why not send this chickenhawk an email? Tell him how impressed we all are by his "analysis".
This is a guy who worships Kristol, Perle, Wolfowitz, et allthe neocons who contributed to this Bushit War.
Duel Israeli Passport Holders Masquerading as Americans!
LET THESE ISRAELIS AND THEIR NEOCON PUPPETS GO TO IRAQ AND FIGHT WHILE WE BRING OUR TROOPS HOME!
I KNEW THIS WAS THE WEEKLY STANDARD BY JUST THE TITLE OF THE STORY!
IRAQ IS NOT NOR HAD EVER BEEN IN AMERICAN INTEREST!
The end result of that episode in German history was a disaster for the country and the division of the country between east and west which lasted 50 years!
Today, we have a "Decider" in the White House, a coward with ZERO military training and ability ignoring his military generals, and sending grandparents and kids to fight a war that isn't even defending their own country! Am I the only one who sees disturbing parallels here?
SIG HEIL, BUSH!
Notice how it is always more Amercian life, limb and treasure lost, without a drop of Israeli Jew blood lost or a Jew cent.
See: NoWarForIsraelDOTcom
P.S. Don't be fooled into believing that U.S. soldiers are somehow targeting civilians for extermination. That is a generally a lie, with some notable exceptions. I was a soldier once, and I never felt compelled or encouraged to murder women and children. The insurgents do a fine job of that on their own.
And I hope that News Corp doesn't get its hands on the Wall Street Journal. The editorial staff at the WSJ are pretty extreme but I'd hate to see the regular news staff at the WSJ compromised by News Corp.
This war will drag on without resolution. the two sides that have to make peace have no interest in negoation. They look at the present goverment as a joke(And a bad one at that)
The surge can be prolonged untill the next president and then they will try to blame the disaster on the next president
So withdraw and let the Iraqis have their little scuffle.
No Muslim man is really happy unless he has the blood of innocent bystanders on his hands.
When the dust settles, the greedy *** will surely sell us any oil we need.
That was the official US policy under Bushit the Elder.
Too bad Sonny is too f**king stupid to listen to "Pop".
1) end Muslim immigration into the US. The refugees from AFrica, refugees mind you taken in by the UK, were just convicted for trying to murder the people who helped them. There is no lower form of life than muslim terrorists.
2) hunt down all nazi-islamist 5th columnist traitors in the USA, including "Black Muslim" followers of Louis Farrakhan, and export them back to the kind of fascist paradise they would love in Iran. Plus Muslims LOVE to have darkie slaves! Nothing like the Black man to provide good hot coffee to the Muslim man in bed in the morning.
3) give the Pakis an ultimatum--either come clean about all the nukes the've spread around the world, or prepare to welcome the detonation of two hydrogen bombs--one over Pakistan (Islamabad, say) and the other over Mecca. Vaporize that rock the Muslim god hides in when he demands we all put our faces in the mud to the Muslim mullahs.
My god, if she cant solve this problem no one can!
I'm actually beginning to think they are evil. The things they want cannot POSSIBLY be in the interest of most Americans, Iraqis, Israelis, etc. I think they are dedicated to corrupting the minds of a significant minority of American voters, so that America's fine military will be used to further someone's agenda. Whos? I'm not sure, but I suspect global corporations.
On a tangent note, the Weekly Standard could not yet pull its collective head out of its rearend by thinking their will some type of resolution with a new strategy. I sure hope, for our soldiers' sake, that they will see greater successes. However, only a fool (read: Weekly Standard) is unable to see the puppet show going on. The WS, just like Bush, is incapable of admitting that terrorism does not Originate in Iraq.
Our soldiers are a magnet for more terrorists who filter into Iraq & want to kill Iraqi civilians for having the most remote association with American soldiers.
Bin Laden (singing the Beetles song): "I get by with a little help from my friends (Bush), gonna smile with a little help from my friends"
It HAS been a great time for the megalomaniac crowd.
Too bad its sooo expensive for the rest of us...
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