Pure Horserace: Change Is In The Air

Top Two Democrats Are Selling Different Brands Of Change For '08

(CBS)  With a whopping 75 percent of Americans in a recent CBS News poll saying that the country is on the wrong track, it's not surprising that "change" is dominating the political discussion, particularly among Democrats. One of the biggest questions in Iowa this week, however, has been what kind of change will the party opt for?

Hillary Clinton's campaign promises change from the current administration but offers it in a familiar package, like slipping out of stiff work clothes and into those comfy sweats at the end of a hard day. Barack Obama is pitching more dramatic change — a whole new wardrobe, as it were.

In their first joint appearances on the campaign trail, Hillary and Bill Clinton sought in ways clear and subtle to remind Democrats of what they characterized as the good old days of the 1990s. On the campus of the University of Iowa, the former president allowed that some may see the Clintons as old news, then went on to recite a list of good news and both offered change rooted in that past.

Embarking on his own Iowa tour, Obama offered up praise of the former president but made clear that the change he's offering is much more dramatic. "What we're more interested in is in looking forward, not looking backward," Obama told The Associated Press. "I think the American people feel the same way." It's an issue that will first be settled by Democratic voters in the crucial states of Iowa and New Hampshire who will decide whether the party sticks with a comfortable change or seeks a more radical approach by nominating a candidate like Obama or John Edwards.

For Clinton, the reminder of better days for Democrats is a powerful tool, but one that carries a certain amount of risk. Bill Clinton's well-received appearances this week mostly overshadowed all the other candidates in the state, but the news that President Bush had commuted the prison sentence of Scooter Libby became a reminder that not all his days in the White House were good ones.

While Democrats, including the Clintons, were busy criticizing the president's decision, Bill Clinton found himself answering questions about his controversial last-minute pardons as well. Calling in to a radio show to chat with Des Moines Register political columnist David Yepsen, the Clintons found themselves defending those pardons while criticizing Bush's. As comfortable as those old sweats can be to wear around the house, you might think twice about wearing them out in public. Then again, would you risk buying that flashy new suit for an important event? Change is in the air, it's just not quite clear what kind of change the Democrats will offer. — Vaughn Ververs

Another Horse In The Stable: Clinton continues to nab endorsements from some of her party's biggest names. Today, her campaign added former House Democratic leader (and recent Political Player Dick Gephardt to the list. While endorsements are of questionable value in winning votes, Clinton has compiled an impressive list of big-name backers at the national, state and local levels. Gephardt, who twice sought the Democratic presidential nomination, could give Clinton a boost within Iowa's important labor unions, where he has longtime ties. Then again, after his fourth-place finish in the 2004 caucuses, the campaign probably shouldn't be banking on much outside of adding one more name to the hefty list of public backers. — Vaughn Ververs


Fan Or Threat? On a slow July Fourth news day, reporters and bloggers were eager to write about the arrest of a man with a large knife near the Ottumwa, Iowa, hotel where Democratic candidate Barack Obama was staying. But it appears there's still uncertainty about whether the incident merited even the small coverage it received.

As the AP tells it, Obama's security team saw Davit Zakaryan loitering outside Obama's hotel and when police questioned him, they found him in possession of a knife, as well as driving without a license. A police spokesman said Obama's team had remembered Zakaryan and his car from previous campaign stops and tipped off law enforcement.

Police also said Zakaryan made no threats against Obama, and, according to the Chicago Tribune's blog The Swamp, he had no plans on doing so and was probably even a fan of the Illinois senator. On the blog, John McCormick wrote that the Obama campaign told him Zakaryan was "just hoping to sell some Obama trinkets and was looking for the next campaign event of the day." Unfortunately, he was in the wrong place at the wrong time, with the wrong knife in his car. — David Miller


Point Of No Return For Bush? President Bush's approval ratings are at record lows — is there any way he can win back the public's support? That's the question CBS News' director of surveys Kathy Frankovic tackles in her latest Poll Positions column. The news for Bush isn't good, Frankovic says. In fact, the only way he might see his poll numbers rise is if something happens that causes the public to rally around the president. But as for the Iraq war, opinion may have already hardened too much for Mr. Bush to win over the public on that front. For more of Frankovic's insights, read this week’s column.


Editor's Note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.

[prinzowhales]

Evidently Davit Zarkayan isn't a Moslem or air raid sirens would be going off by now.

Gephardt endorses Clinton...who would have supposed?...the 'Edwards' of days gone by slithering into the Clinton "stable"...a faux- Populist endorsing a fascist.

[aajo1]

According to Obama "What we're more interested in is in looking forward, not looking backward. I think the American people feel the same way."

I completely agree with Obama. We must remember that the Presidency of Clinton was in the 20th Century. We are now in the 21st Century. How can we be talking of taking America back in the 20th Century instead of moving forward for the challenges of out time? Even President Reagan for all that he accomplished, he said best of America is still ahead not backward.

[dj011]

I think you're right, the people are looking for a positive change in direction. My hope is that is good for the Dems in all races. What do you think the effect down the ticket would be of a Clinton, Edwards or Obama nomination? At this point it appears one of those 3 will get the Demo nomination. Even in the 21st Century, there are people who judge a candidate by their skin color and gender. Clinton has been labeled by some as a flip/flopper who views are directed by the polls, and she has the bad/good fortune to be the spouse of a former President. And, of course, Edwards has been labeled a "liberal" with very nice hair. Obama has been slammed for being "new to the process" and for not fitting his message in the 10-30 spots the media allow candidates to have.
For another column, how do each of the Dems do in the hot bed states (FL, OH, NM, CO, MO and several others) against Rudy, Mitt or McCain? How do the other candidates down the line do with a Clinton/Edwards/Obama heading the ticket?
Thanks for an interesting and thought provoking column.

DJ

[wizinit1]

Obama tells you what he will accomplish by the end of his first term. Clinton asks you to forget what he did on the last day of his second term. I'll go with option one, thank you.

[jshepherd51]

Thank you so very much for actally mentioning "my" candidates name.....I mean, John Edwards...uuh, who is he.....it's a wonder anyone knows who he is from the coverage, excuse me, I mean mention, he gets from the mainstream media....I am so tired of reading about Hillary and Barack that I am about ready to turn CBS news off for good....you have nothing new and fresh to report....just the same old hogwash about those that everyone already knows about! Thanks a lot!
Jake Shepherd

[Snerdguy]

The candidates are extremely vague about what role they will actually play toward making these "changes". The President only has a limited amount of authority to "change" the law. That is the responsibility of the Congress.

It's the bureaucracy within our federal government that hurts everyone in some way and it kills without conscience. Many of our troops die because of poor support by our Defense Agencies. The elderly and injured suffer and sometimes die while waiting for Social Security to do their job. Billions of dollars that could be put to better use is wasted because of mismanagement. Our government does not give a reasonable amount of output for the resources it consumes. You would fire it if worked for you.

The President of the United States of America is the Commander In Chief. He is the highest authority in charge our government. He's the boss. It's his job to keep it running smoothly. So, I want to hear the candidates say it plainly: "The government isn't doing it's job and I will fix it. Because that is what the President can do."

[randalds]

I admit to being torn. I like Obama, but long for the much better days of the Clinton White House. Quite frankly either will be thousands and thousands and thousands of times better then the murderous disastrous madman we have now.

[nice2blucky]

Mainstream has been presenting a false picture of the 2008 Presidential race for as far back as I remember.

They insist on staining our brains with what seems to be their 2 favorite Democrats: Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Of these two, Hillary in particular, is very low on my list. As a matter of fact, I refuse to vote for Hillary, even in the 2008 general election.

I liked her until I saw her in action, and now there's nothing I like about her as a candidate.

I'd rather not have Obama as my only choice either.

From what I've seen, my favorite Democratic Presidential Candidate is John Edwards... and even he's #2 or #3 on my list... with Obama not even on my radar.

As a matter of fact, ... I'd say that I am more aware, in terms of politics, than 90% of the country, ... and my point is nothing to brag about -- in 2 senses %u2013 but, the first time I ever heard of Obama was about 6 months ago.

That's why I am certain that his candidacy is pure media hype. Also, besides the fact that I hate the idea of the media choosing the Democratic nominee, I actually like and trust others sensibilities, candidness, and stated intent far more than Obama and worlds more than Hillary.

Still, I know as much about Obama as I knew about Bush in 1999, which is virtually nothing.


So... as someone else mentioned in a comment above, ... It's nice of you to actually mention John Edwards. So good of you. Hope it wasn%u2019t too much trouble.

[perception5]

Neither Hillary or Obama are "even" qualified to be President of USA.

Neither one has very much experience especially Obama.

Both voted "against" funding American troops overseas recently. How can you be "Commander-in-Chief" and vote against funding for American troops "purely" for POLITICAL reasons.

Neither candidate is willing to have a debate sponsored by a "TV show", FOX because their afraid of the questions they might get asked from this conservative news outlet. How can you represent All Americans then? Just more hate and divide from the "left" and sponsored by their "enablers" in our corrupt liberal MSM wolfpack press.

Write these two candidates off. NEXT!

[omega39-2009]

I haven't heard anything from any candidate on what they plan to do about the flood of good paying jobs leaving our country and ending up in India and China. It certainly looks as if a vote for any candidate will result in the continued decimation of the middle class and business as usual for the corporate raiders.

[ozonmojo]

Hillary is the best bet to give the Jihadists a run for their money.She is smart and tough. Obama will be nowhere when faced with a disaster like 9/11.If elected, he will be America's biggest disaster.

[mpitch2]

Go Clintons Go I bet if everyone in the United States of America paid 10% taxes we would be out of debt and not to mention the Gestapo IRS might even have a heart when it would be so easy to implement this action...Warren Buffet said he wanted to pay his fair share...well just think of all the money that would be put back into the economy and the health benefits would get back on track...Hey we might even get our jobs back from India, China, and other foreign shores and wouldn't it be nice to understand that person on the other end of the phone when you want to get an airline ticket to see your ailing family....
Trickle down affect....I believe we could do it..

Tired of seeing our boys go the dessert for the fourth and fifth time....Nurse at Fort Campbell, Kentucky

[mpitch2]

Go Clintons Go I bet if everyone in the United States of America paid 10% taxes, we would be out of debt and not to mention the Gestapo IRS might even have a heart when it would be so easy to implement this action....Warren Buffett said he would pay his fair share...well just think of all the money that would be put back into our economy and health benefits would get back on track...Hey we might get our jobs back from India, China and other foreign shores and oh to speak to someone you understand when you are trying to get an airline ticket to visit your ailing famiy....

Nurse at Fort Campbell whois tired of seeing our soldiers going back to the dessert four and five times.....Let's get America back....