Pure Horserace: Is McCain Down And Out?

Arizona Senator's Continued Fundraising Woes Raise Questions About His Viability

(CBS)  The man who was once the front-runner in the race for the Republican nomination is now struggling to remain in the top tier. John McCain, hobbled by his support for the immigration reform bill that died in the Senate last week, today reported fundraising numbers that will only fuel the perception that his campaign is sinking — $11.2 million raised in the past three months, only $2 million on hand, and salary cutbacks and layoffs throughout his organization.

McCain is "seriously considering" accepting federal matching funds, campaign manager Terry Nelson said after announcing the second-quarter numbers, even though that would require the campaign to abide by certain spending restrictions that would not apply to his opponents.

The numbers are worse than what McCain posted for the first quarter of 2007, the release of which marked the beginning of his fall from the top of the Republican race. Today's news may result in him being seen as trailing not only Rudy Giuliani, but also Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson in the fight for the GOP nomination. Romney and Giuliani have not released fundraising totals yet, and Thompson will not be required to do so until the end of the current quarter in September.

Nelson said McCain's support for a failed compromise on comprehensive immigration legislation was a serious setback for fundraising efforts, and that a previous assumption of raising $100 million in 2007 was far off the mark. "He's taken principled stands that have made him a great leader and a great candidate… but it sometimes makes fundraising more challenging," Nelson said of McCain.

Where does the campaign go from here? Nelson said spending cutbacks — including his own salary for at least two months — were necessary to get McCain's message out, and that both retail campaigning and fundraising efforts would be stepped up. Yet the campaign made similar efforts after a disappointing first quarter, including rolling out the Straight Talk Express bus made famous in the 2000 campaign, and has little to show for it. And, as most of the top candidates are using the week of July Fourth to campaign in key early states, McCain is off the campaign trail, visiting troops in Iraq.

We've seen some pretty unlikely political comebacks before — in 2003, John Kerry was all but written off after he fired his campaign manager, yet came back with a late charge in Iowa to win the Democratic nomination. But McCain faces a steeper climb: his name is literally attached to an immigration bill that is reviled by a good chunk of the GOP base, and while Kerry opted out of matching funds to unshackle his campaign, McCain is headed toward doing the exact opposite. And then there's the compressed primary calendar, which forces candidates to pay to build support and infrastructure in more states than ever before. Recovery, at this point, will prove very difficult. — David Miller


Those Other 2008 Elections: Even as the fundraising numbers in the presidential race are drawing the lion's share of attention, another crucial 2008 race — for control of Congress — is heating up. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the party's fundraising arm for House races, is launching a mix of phone calls and radio and Internet ads targeting 14 Republican incumbents in various districts.

The list includes GOP members who just barely survived in 2006, like New Mexico's Heather Wilson, but also includes targets who are usually considered invulnerable to defeat, like Alaska's Don Young. The ads all revolve around the same issue: support for American troops and veterans.

The early campaign may signal that Democrats, despite Congress' low approval ratings, believe they'll be able to expand on their gains from 2006 instead of focusing mostly on retaining the seats they captured. History suggests that a party will lose some seats in Congress after it makes major gains, but continuing public disapproval of the Iraq war and President Bush seems to have Democrats feeling bullish about the future.

Of course, Republicans probably felt good about their prospects at this point in 2005 — before Hurricane Katrina, continued violence in Iraq, and corruption scandals took hold. And we remember how that turned out. — David Miller


Are You Ready To Rock, Iowa? It's unlikely that Iowa is going to be on the list of concert tour hot spots this summer. But today, and for the rest of the week, the state will host a tour of the Democratic Party's two biggest rock stars: Bill and Hillary Clinton. The jolt that the former president is likely to provide his wife's campaign comes at just the right time — one day after Barack Obama announced he had bested Clinton in second-quarter fundraising.

The "Ready To Change, Ready To Lead" tour (no word on T-shirt availability) begins tonight in Des Moines, where Mr. Clinton will make his first public campaign appearance for his wife since her 2000 Senate campaign in New York. Other spots on the campaign swing include Iowa City, Davenport, Clear Lake, Waterloo, Cedar Rapids, Muscatine, Ottumwa and Fort Dodge.

If you want to see the Clintons but your holiday week plans don't include Iowa, you’re not totally out of luck. The power couple's travels throughout the state will be documented on HillCam, available on the Clinton campaign's Web site. A video on the site claims both Clintons will be "reporting directly to you, from Des Moines to Davenport." A press release announcing HillCam promises "spontaneous and unscripted moments."

Will it be worth watching? Maybe, but only if the former president seems more natural than he did in last month's "Sopranos" spoof. — David Miller


Richardson Reaches Out… Way Out: Forget about Obama's $32.5 million fundraising haul — another Democrat, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, may have pulled off something even more impressive: finding a place in New Hampshire where a presidential candidate has never visited.

On an upcoming swing through the Granite State, Richardson will visit tiny Marlow, which claims to have never been touched by the steady stream of presidential hopefuls who have invaded the state every four years for decades. "In an era where campaigns are increasingly dominated by polls, fundraising and political consultants, to have a major candidate like Gov. Richardson come to Marlow boosts my faith in the political process," Mary Blank, president of the Marlow Historical Society, said in a Richardson press release.

Located in southwestern New Hampshire, Marlow had 747 residents as of the 2000 Census — and we're guessing a lot of them will become Richardson fans this week, if only by default. — David Miller


Editor's Note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.

[tylenol6]

John McLame: Your all washed up!!!Go back to Arizona. I hear they don't even support you there.
Adios Amigo!!!!!

[tucano2]

As Mr. McCain disappears from view so too will the others who voted to support Corporate Welfare and AMNESTY. Good riddance.

[mcdonaj3]

Senator McCain is a true patriot and I am a long time republican. But when Senator McCain was making deals on immigration with Senator Kennedy, that was it for me! The immigration bill was a bad one and everyone knows it. It's not complicated, secure the border first, then grant amnesty to the 12 million illegal aliens.

[imprisonbush]

McCain is a dead man walking. Toast. History. Just because the North Vietnamese had the good sense to imprison this man does not make him presidential timber. All thinking people despise him for one reason or another, whether it's his complete devotion and support to the war criminals in the White House and Congress or his ridiculous support for that immigration bill.

[mrhoppy-2009]

Is there so much outrage about the Scooter Libby story that CBS has decided to not post any of our comments???

McCain is over because he supported BUsh and NOBODY in America supports these *** clowns.

Re-elect nobody! Not that there will be another election in the US thanks to this congress of traitors. All of them, except Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich of course.

[sasi1-2009]

I am definitely not for McCain, but I think something should be done to even the race track. Every candidate should have the same opportunity to succeed, and then leave it up to the American voters to make the decision. I also hope someone is watching where all these funds are coming from -- especially Obama's. That much money does look fishy, and smells that way also.

[billtom1]

A lot of Washington-insiders are already trying to write John McCain out of the race for President. Of course, if you read his book, Faith of My Fathers (and anyone who really wants to know John McCain%u2019s qualities should) his captors in Vietnam counted him out too and were always wrong. He withstood torture and long imprisonment and returned to continue serving his country. As one of his captors said in frustration when John McCain refused to give in, %u201Cthey you taught too well%u201D. He has earned our trust and is the best person to successfully manage the Country in our present position. We need a lot more of what %u201Cthey taught too well%u201D%u2014courage, duty, honor, loyalty. We need that kind of backbone.

[toldyouso21]

Am I the only one who thinks campaign fundraising has got excessive? If anything the media should be giving McCain props for not trying to buy the election.
Posted by az106 at 09:03 PM : Jul 02, 2007


You are kidding right? it is not that McCain is not trying to buy the election, it is that he is so despised that many do not want to sell it to him. As for what he is dishing out--McCain is having a hard time giving it away--and practically no one except the die hard supporters of 2000 want to buy that.

Face it, McCain may post for this entire election, what Obama made in 4 months. He and his supporters should get a clue: he is NOT wanted. He's castor oil--and Bush was cod liver oil. We had a taste of that fvcked up oily stuff for the past 7 years. Now, The GOP would have to strap America down and knock us out to get us to swallow anymore of the Republican swill.

[az106]

Am I the only one who thinks campaign fundraising has got excessive? If anything the media should be giving McCain props for not trying to buy the election.