February 11, 2009 4:38 PM
- Text
Pure Horserace: Fenced In On Immigration?
(CBS)
With the defeat of the immigration reform bill in the Senate on Thursday, chances of Congress passing any comprehensive legislation to deal with the issue is about slim to none. Senate leaders have said they are unlikely to bring it up again this year, and Congress almost certainly won't touch it in the middle of the 2008 presidential election next year.
With one notable exception, Republican presidential candidates will hail today's vote as a great victory. First out of the gate was Mitt Romney, who released a statement shortly after the vote, saying, "The immigration bill failed because the politicians in Washington are out of touch with the American people. The voice of the people is loud and clear — secure the border, enforce the law and no special deal for permanent residency or citizenship for illegals. America will always welcome legal immigration, but as a nation we also insist on the rule of law."
For John McCain, one of the key backers of the Senate bill, it is a bitter defeat. McCain's support for the Senate bill has coincided with a precipitous drop in the polls, both nationally and in some of the key early states. If he cannot reverse the trend, immigration is likely to join campaign finance reform at the top of his campaign's obituary come next winter. Should McCain end up winning the nomination however, both he and his party may be grateful for his refusal to abandon his support for the bill.
A new USA Today/Gallup poll demonstrates why. While the Republican Party has made strong inroads among Hispanic voters in recent years, the poll indicates a dramatic shift toward Democrats in the midst of the sometimes-emotional immigration debate. The poll found that 59 percent of Hispanics polled either identify themselves as or lean toward supporting Democrats, compared with just 20 percent who identified with the GOP. For a party which received about 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2004, that's quite a change.
The growing influence of Hispanic voters is something political strategists have focused on in recent cycles, and cultivating support within the community has paid off for President Bush. But the heated rhetoric of the immigration debate risks those gains. A strong segment of the GOP's base sees any pathway to citizenship for the estimated 12 million immigrants in the U.S. illegally as amnesty that rewards illegal behavior. Many opponents advocated a forced expulsion for illegal immigrants.
With the exception of McCain, the other Republican presidential candidates have opposed the legislation, which should serve them well among Republican primary voters who seem determined not to forget McCain's support of it. But if McCain does not end up with the nomination, it's possible many Hispanic voters won't forget this debate either. — Vaughn Ververs
Soft Support For Hillary: Hillary Clinton has seen some strong poll numbers come out of New Hampshire lately, and a new Suffolk University poll, at least at first glance, continues that trend: Clinton held a comfortable lead over Barack Obama, 39 percent to 19 percent. John Edwards and Bill Richardson each had 9 percent, and 16 percent were undecided.
"Hillary Clinton clears the field and with only 16 percent undecided, it is unlikely that any of her announced opponents will catch her," Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos said. Yet a closer look at the survey suggests such sweeping pronouncements are a little premature.
When Al Gore was thrown into the equation, he did more than steal a significant chunk of the vote — he came out on top, with 32 percent supporting him. That result suggests plenty of people who say they're backing Clinton (or some other candidate) are open to the idea of changing their mind. Right now, Gore appears to be the only person capable of making people defect from another candidate, but that doesn't preclude one of the candidates who's actually in the race from having the same effect as time goes on.
Of course, the poll is also likely to inspire those who are trying to get Gore to run again. They're already pretty active, whether they're comparing him to Superman or running radio ads on his behalf. Now that they have actual numbers to back up their convictions, a new wave of Gore speculation could be in the making. — David Miller
Thompson's Travels: Fred Thompson held what could be considered his first campaign event Wednesday, speaking before a crowd of about 400 people in South Carolina. Thompson's abilities on the stump have been criticized before, but that didn't appear to be a problem in Columbia, where his 30-minute speech met an enthusiastic response, according to the Associated Press.
The speech illustrated that Thompson may be trying to prevent attacks on what is perceived as one of his weaknesses — his background as a longtime Washington lobbyist. "I've been talking about things wrong with Washington when I was a part of it, before I was a part of it and since I've been a part of it," he said.
Thompson also tackled another issue raised by critics: His support of the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law. Even though he played a major role in shepherding the bill through the Senate, Thompson said he supported Monday's Supreme Court decision to loosen restrictions on ads run by unions and corporations close to an election.
Today, the former senator's pre-announcement tour hits New Hampshire, where Mitt Romney has shot out to a comfortable lead — so don't be surprised if Thompson defends his status as a "true conservative" even more than he did down South. — David Miller
Something Must Be Working: It's too early to say which side of the Ann Coulter-John Edwards spat is reaping the biggest rewards. Coulter is probably selling a lot more books after Elizabeth Edwards called her on live on MSNBC's "Hardball" to confront the conservative author about comments she has made in the past. But the Edwards camp seems to be doing pretty well with the controversy too — this morning, the campaign sent out its third fund-raising appeal pegged to Coulter.
Missive No. 3 comes from deputy campaign manager Jonathan Prince, who writes: "All week we've seen the personal attacks come flooding in from Ann Coulter, Bill O'Reilly and the rest of the right-wing smear machine. But the real story this week is not them — it's you. It's the explosion of grassroots support from folks all over the country who stood up to help us fight back and put us within $1 million of our goal. We now have 72 hours to hit our goal of $9 million." — Vaughn Ververs
Editor's Note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.
By Vaughn Ververs and David Miller
With one notable exception, Republican presidential candidates will hail today's vote as a great victory. First out of the gate was Mitt Romney, who released a statement shortly after the vote, saying, "The immigration bill failed because the politicians in Washington are out of touch with the American people. The voice of the people is loud and clear — secure the border, enforce the law and no special deal for permanent residency or citizenship for illegals. America will always welcome legal immigration, but as a nation we also insist on the rule of law."
For John McCain, one of the key backers of the Senate bill, it is a bitter defeat. McCain's support for the Senate bill has coincided with a precipitous drop in the polls, both nationally and in some of the key early states. If he cannot reverse the trend, immigration is likely to join campaign finance reform at the top of his campaign's obituary come next winter. Should McCain end up winning the nomination however, both he and his party may be grateful for his refusal to abandon his support for the bill.
A new USA Today/Gallup poll demonstrates why. While the Republican Party has made strong inroads among Hispanic voters in recent years, the poll indicates a dramatic shift toward Democrats in the midst of the sometimes-emotional immigration debate. The poll found that 59 percent of Hispanics polled either identify themselves as or lean toward supporting Democrats, compared with just 20 percent who identified with the GOP. For a party which received about 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2004, that's quite a change.
The growing influence of Hispanic voters is something political strategists have focused on in recent cycles, and cultivating support within the community has paid off for President Bush. But the heated rhetoric of the immigration debate risks those gains. A strong segment of the GOP's base sees any pathway to citizenship for the estimated 12 million immigrants in the U.S. illegally as amnesty that rewards illegal behavior. Many opponents advocated a forced expulsion for illegal immigrants.
With the exception of McCain, the other Republican presidential candidates have opposed the legislation, which should serve them well among Republican primary voters who seem determined not to forget McCain's support of it. But if McCain does not end up with the nomination, it's possible many Hispanic voters won't forget this debate either. — Vaughn Ververs
Soft Support For Hillary: Hillary Clinton has seen some strong poll numbers come out of New Hampshire lately, and a new Suffolk University poll, at least at first glance, continues that trend: Clinton held a comfortable lead over Barack Obama, 39 percent to 19 percent. John Edwards and Bill Richardson each had 9 percent, and 16 percent were undecided.
"Hillary Clinton clears the field and with only 16 percent undecided, it is unlikely that any of her announced opponents will catch her," Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos said. Yet a closer look at the survey suggests such sweeping pronouncements are a little premature.
When Al Gore was thrown into the equation, he did more than steal a significant chunk of the vote — he came out on top, with 32 percent supporting him. That result suggests plenty of people who say they're backing Clinton (or some other candidate) are open to the idea of changing their mind. Right now, Gore appears to be the only person capable of making people defect from another candidate, but that doesn't preclude one of the candidates who's actually in the race from having the same effect as time goes on.
Of course, the poll is also likely to inspire those who are trying to get Gore to run again. They're already pretty active, whether they're comparing him to Superman or running radio ads on his behalf. Now that they have actual numbers to back up their convictions, a new wave of Gore speculation could be in the making. — David Miller
Thompson's Travels: Fred Thompson held what could be considered his first campaign event Wednesday, speaking before a crowd of about 400 people in South Carolina. Thompson's abilities on the stump have been criticized before, but that didn't appear to be a problem in Columbia, where his 30-minute speech met an enthusiastic response, according to the Associated Press.
The speech illustrated that Thompson may be trying to prevent attacks on what is perceived as one of his weaknesses — his background as a longtime Washington lobbyist. "I've been talking about things wrong with Washington when I was a part of it, before I was a part of it and since I've been a part of it," he said.
Thompson also tackled another issue raised by critics: His support of the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law. Even though he played a major role in shepherding the bill through the Senate, Thompson said he supported Monday's Supreme Court decision to loosen restrictions on ads run by unions and corporations close to an election.
Today, the former senator's pre-announcement tour hits New Hampshire, where Mitt Romney has shot out to a comfortable lead — so don't be surprised if Thompson defends his status as a "true conservative" even more than he did down South. — David Miller
Something Must Be Working: It's too early to say which side of the Ann Coulter-John Edwards spat is reaping the biggest rewards. Coulter is probably selling a lot more books after Elizabeth Edwards called her on live on MSNBC's "Hardball" to confront the conservative author about comments she has made in the past. But the Edwards camp seems to be doing pretty well with the controversy too — this morning, the campaign sent out its third fund-raising appeal pegged to Coulter.
Missive No. 3 comes from deputy campaign manager Jonathan Prince, who writes: "All week we've seen the personal attacks come flooding in from Ann Coulter, Bill O'Reilly and the rest of the right-wing smear machine. But the real story this week is not them — it's you. It's the explosion of grassroots support from folks all over the country who stood up to help us fight back and put us within $1 million of our goal. We now have 72 hours to hit our goal of $9 million." — Vaughn Ververs
Editor's Note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.
By Vaughn Ververs and David Miller
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