Pure Horserace: Fenced In On Immigration?

GOP Candidates' Views On Bill Could Affect Hispanic Support In General Election

(CBS)  With the defeat of the immigration reform bill in the Senate on Thursday, chances of Congress passing any comprehensive legislation to deal with the issue is about slim to none. Senate leaders have said they are unlikely to bring it up again this year, and Congress almost certainly won't touch it in the middle of the 2008 presidential election next year.

With one notable exception, Republican presidential candidates will hail today's vote as a great victory. First out of the gate was Mitt Romney, who released a statement shortly after the vote, saying, "The immigration bill failed because the politicians in Washington are out of touch with the American people. The voice of the people is loud and clear — secure the border, enforce the law and no special deal for permanent residency or citizenship for illegals. America will always welcome legal immigration, but as a nation we also insist on the rule of law."

For John McCain, one of the key backers of the Senate bill, it is a bitter defeat. McCain's support for the Senate bill has coincided with a precipitous drop in the polls, both nationally and in some of the key early states. If he cannot reverse the trend, immigration is likely to join campaign finance reform at the top of his campaign's obituary come next winter. Should McCain end up winning the nomination however, both he and his party may be grateful for his refusal to abandon his support for the bill.

A new USA Today/Gallup poll demonstrates why. While the Republican Party has made strong inroads among Hispanic voters in recent years, the poll indicates a dramatic shift toward Democrats in the midst of the sometimes-emotional immigration debate. The poll found that 59 percent of Hispanics polled either identify themselves as or lean toward supporting Democrats, compared with just 20 percent who identified with the GOP. For a party which received about 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2004, that's quite a change.

The growing influence of Hispanic voters is something political strategists have focused on in recent cycles, and cultivating support within the community has paid off for President Bush. But the heated rhetoric of the immigration debate risks those gains. A strong segment of the GOP's base sees any pathway to citizenship for the estimated 12 million immigrants in the U.S. illegally as amnesty that rewards illegal behavior. Many opponents advocated a forced expulsion for illegal immigrants.

With the exception of McCain, the other Republican presidential candidates have opposed the legislation, which should serve them well among Republican primary voters who seem determined not to forget McCain's support of it. But if McCain does not end up with the nomination, it's possible many Hispanic voters won't forget this debate either. — Vaughn Ververs


Soft Support For Hillary: Hillary Clinton has seen some strong poll numbers come out of New Hampshire lately, and a new Suffolk University poll, at least at first glance, continues that trend: Clinton held a comfortable lead over Barack Obama, 39 percent to 19 percent. John Edwards and Bill Richardson each had 9 percent, and 16 percent were undecided.

"Hillary Clinton clears the field and with only 16 percent undecided, it is unlikely that any of her announced opponents will catch her," Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos said. Yet a closer look at the survey suggests such sweeping pronouncements are a little premature.

When Al Gore was thrown into the equation, he did more than steal a significant chunk of the vote — he came out on top, with 32 percent supporting him. That result suggests plenty of people who say they're backing Clinton (or some other candidate) are open to the idea of changing their mind. Right now, Gore appears to be the only person capable of making people defect from another candidate, but that doesn't preclude one of the candidates who's actually in the race from having the same effect as time goes on.

Of course, the poll is also likely to inspire those who are trying to get Gore to run again. They're already pretty active, whether they're comparing him to Superman or running radio ads on his behalf. Now that they have actual numbers to back up their convictions, a new wave of Gore speculation could be in the making. — David Miller


Thompson's Travels: Fred Thompson held what could be considered his first campaign event Wednesday, speaking before a crowd of about 400 people in South Carolina. Thompson's abilities on the stump have been criticized before, but that didn't appear to be a problem in Columbia, where his 30-minute speech met an enthusiastic response, according to the Associated Press.

The speech illustrated that Thompson may be trying to prevent attacks on what is perceived as one of his weaknesses — his background as a longtime Washington lobbyist. "I've been talking about things wrong with Washington when I was a part of it, before I was a part of it and since I've been a part of it," he said.

Thompson also tackled another issue raised by critics: His support of the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law. Even though he played a major role in shepherding the bill through the Senate, Thompson said he supported Monday's Supreme Court decision to loosen restrictions on ads run by unions and corporations close to an election.

Today, the former senator's pre-announcement tour hits New Hampshire, where Mitt Romney has shot out to a comfortable lead — so don’t be surprised if Thompson defends his status as a "true conservative" even more than he did down South. — David Miller


Something Must Be Working: It's too early to say which side of the Ann Coulter-John Edwards spat is reaping the biggest rewards. Coulter is probably selling a lot more books after Elizabeth Edwards called her on live on MSNBC’s "Hardball" to confront the conservative author about comments she has made in the past. But the Edwards camp seems to be doing pretty well with the controversy too — this morning, the campaign sent out its third fund-raising appeal pegged to Coulter.

Missive No. 3 comes from deputy campaign manager Jonathan Prince, who writes: "All week we've seen the personal attacks come flooding in from Ann Coulter, Bill O'Reilly and the rest of the right-wing smear machine. But the real story this week is not them — it's you. It's the explosion of grassroots support from folks all over the country who stood up to help us fight back and put us within $1 million of our goal. We now have 72 hours to hit our goal of $9 million." — Vaughn Ververs


Editor's Note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.

[cpaide]

The Illegal Immigration Invasion

http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/january2007/300107Immigration.htm

A truthful documentary showing the people that deal with the Illegal Immigration Invasion upfront and on a daily basis. Watch what the mainstream media WILL NOT show you!!! Like hundreds of illegals streaming across the border into the back yards of U.S. Citizens while the government hinders citizens from protecting their own property.

Note: If FACTS are a problem for you, don't watch this!

[cpaide]

RandalDS
is one of the crazy pro-illegal immigration trolls who live under the CBS Public Comment Zones. He is an ignorant freeloader, starving for attention from anyone who happens upon him.

He lives off of his wife and has nothing to do all day long but post nonsense and read his own idiotic posts over and over, rolling on the floor, laughing is @ss off.

Pathetic. AND he is the baby of an anchor baby.

Excuse me for trip-trapping across your bridge, Master Troll. Please give us your wisdom, oh all-knowing one. No facts, please; they make my head hurt.

[doc444]

Ok to all of you that bash the Mexican people I say shame on you. I as many do not want illegal aliens running around this country. It is a violation of the law and a disservice to all that would like to come here legally. That said how can any of us not understand what drives them to come. We have a great country with the best of everything. And it is not that we do not want to share it is that this country got this way by being orderly and following the law and to keep it great it must continue that way. Our government and business leaders have created this problem and now it is up to us to correct it.

[randalds]

Well, RandalDS, we are neighbors. You must not live in an area where the thousnads of illegals disrupt everday life for the citizens of this city. How could it be that you're not exposed to the filth and chaos of the illegals?

Posted by drivelphobe at 09:33 PM : Jun 28, 2007

I live in Hollywood, a very very integrated neighborhood and I have no problem with immigrants, undocumented or not. To me they add to the city with flavor and diversity much more then they could possibly take away. I voted for the good Mayor for several reasons and his position on sanctuary was only one. A Others included the fact that I thought he'd make an excellent Mayor (and he has been), plus it was nice to be able to vote for a qualified Hispanic at the same time since they are such a large part of L.A. and have been throughout it's history since even back before white people came here. No, I'm not a member of La Raza, but I have no problem with them as, despite the lies told about them, they're no different then the NAACP is for blacks or the Anti-defamation league is for Jews. They really are nothing more then a civil rights organization that supports tighter borders and real immigration reform, including a path to citizenship and a guest worker program, the same as I do.

[drivelphobe]

Well, RandalDS, we are neighbors. You must not live in an area where the thousnads of illegals disrupt everday life for the citizens of this city. How could it be that you're not exposed to the filth and chaos of the illegals?

There's not going to be any smooth transition, in fact, I would bet money that large deportations begin as soon as some of these politicians understand that their jobs are on the line.

I also have some hope that Mexico will begin to emerge from the third world status it currently enjoys, and maybe beckon the Mexicans to stay and go home on their own. This country cannot exist with the current level of illegals. The invasion by another country, Mexico, will be stopped because there isn't any support for it. The only ones who want Mexicans in this country are the Mexicans, and the likes of you. You sound like a member of La Raza.

Hispanic Americans are another issue and they are and will always be welcome. If you voted for Villaraigosa because of his stand on the sanctuary city status of Los Angeles, it's clear what and who you are. You are an enemy of the USA. Reconquista is a Mexican's wet dream.

I have to go now. My white hood is just coming out of the dryer.

[randalds]

Our Mexican mayor maintains a sanctuary city for these criminals, so they are coming in daily by the droves. It might be true that the Mexicans will take over the USA, but not in my lifetime or yours.

Posted by drivelphobe at 04:49 PM : Jun 28, 2007

I support OUR Mayor (I live in L.A. too and voted for him) for his stand on this being a sanctuary city. Just after the year 2050 white Americans will officially become a minority according to the census bureau. Granted that is not in my lifetime, but there's no sense in waiting to begin the process of making this transition as smooth as possible.

[drivelphobe]

RandalDS.......

Legal hispanic descent is okay with me. I say all illegals have to go, not just the hispanics. In my area, Los Angeles, we have hundreds of thousands of hispanic illegals, and it is overwhelmingly tragic. All the negaitve things you can imagine are maginified here because of the sheer numbers. Our Mexican mayor maintains a sanctuary city for these criminals, so they are coming in daily by the droves. It might be true that the Mexicans will take over the USA, but not in my lifetime or yours.

Thank you for your gracious description of Rascist Pig. You are wrong about the racist part, but I may be a pig.

[randalds]

Posted by drivelphobe at 03:44 PM : Jun 28, 2007

Normally I wouldn't respond to a racist pig like you, but I'll make an exception this time. The majority of Hispanics in this country are Americans of Hispanic descent. Now I know it makes you break out into sweat stains on your white sheet and hood, but all the have to do is to show up at the polls, just the legal ones mind you, in another generation and they'll out vote white people through shear numbers. That's why this whole immigration bill is really much ado about nothing. Or more correctly much ado about nothing racists like you can do anything about.

Besides, what's the problem? I'm white and I have no problem with America being controlled by those of Hispanic descent. After all this is a majority rule country right? Well soon they will be the majority. Deal with it.

[drivelphobe]

Gee Hopetrumps...

Drivel is what you post, and phobe is a healthy dislike for it. I don't know what part of the country wiht which yo are familiar, but I live in the ghetto-like Los Angeles area, completely overrun with illegals. I live daily with the filth and intolerance of these invaders and criminals. I can't go anywhere without the constant babbling of non-English speaking hordes. They have ruined our once livable city. It is absolutely disgusting that this is not only ignored by our government, but sponsored by it. This is going to end soon as the War on Illegals is just truly beginning.

Did I miss something? Do all these illegals come from England, you say?

[drivelphobe]

"Americans of Hispanic descent are the future voters and leaders of this country"

Dream on RandalDS. There are a few solid citizens which could qualify, but the majority are illiterate, low-functioning, criminals, who have entered this country illegally and are incapable of anything other than breeding, collecting welfare and living in squalor, contaminating everything they touch. We, the American taxpayers and citizens, will not let these vermin stay in this country illegally. The war on illegals is just starting, as you've witnessed with the demise of the Bush/Kennedy amnesty program. The sooner you move to Mexico, the better. Then you can hangout with your buddies, waiting for checks from the USA.