Fred Thompson's Potential Pitfalls

By Kenneth T. Walsh

(US News)  If former Sen. Fred Thompson enters the GOP presidential race in the next few weeks, as expected, he must avoid the pitfalls endured by Democratic candidate Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois--a meteoric rise and then a stall that undermines the power of his candidacy.

"Thompson will need to continue to go up in the polls," says GOP pollster Frank Luntz, who hasn't taken sides in the Republican race. Luntz points out that Obama has gotten stuck at about 25 percent support among Democrats, and this has raised doubts in the media and among his party's veterans whether his appeal has permanently faded.

"The key for Thompson is to crack 25 percent," Luntz says. A strategist for a rival campaign says Thompson won't do that.

"Fred is a concept, not a candidate," says the strategist. "He is a vessel for what people want to believe in." Much the same can be said about Obama on the Democratic side. Once the former Tennessee senator's record is picked apart, he will lose support rapidly, the rival strategist says.