Republican Evolution

Political Players is a weekly conversation with the leaders, consultants, and activists who are shaping American politics. This week, as Michael Bloomberg announced his resignation from the Republican party, and as Fred Thompson continues to prepare a presidential bid, CBS News' Brian Goldsmith talks with veteran GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio about the state of Republican politics.

CBSNews.com: How formidable is Michael Bloomberg as a potential third party candidate?

Tony Fabrizio: I think that Michael Bloomberg is formidable in terms of his potential to sway the election one way or the other. I think you need to look at Mayor Bloomberg as like a cruise missile with unlimited fuel and a huge payload. But nobody knows quite where it could strike.

I can make an argument that Mayor Bloomberg could, depending on how he runs, hurt the Republican presidential nominee, hurt the Democratic presidential nominee, or be of neutral impact on the race altogether. It all depends on how he chooses to position himself in the race.

CBSNews.com: There is an argument that Bloomberg might hurt the Democrats more given the pool of voters that a socially liberal, urban candidate would draw from. What do you see as the more likely scenario? Or is it just totally unpredictable?

Tony Fabrizio: It is unpredictable because there are several factors that go into play. One is that I could see a scenario where you have a very fractious Democrat or Republican nomination fight that lasts longer than the other side.

And during that period of time when one nomination lasts longer than the other, you can see where it would be smart for the Republican or Democratic party to go in and try to define Bloomberg, to push him to the other side. If I were the Democrats, I'd try to make Bloomberg a Republican creation. If I were the Republicans, I'd try to push Bloomberg to the left, and basically say, "He's really not a Republican."

To start the definition process so that Bloomberg doesn't get a free chance to define himself. Now, you're never going to be able to out-shout the guy, but depending on how that occurs, it could be problematic if you have one side pinned down in a grueling nomination fight, and the other side with resources and time available to it.

CBSNews.com: The talk of Bloomberg supporters seems to be that his decision is dependent on who the two major parties nominate. If they each put up somebody he sees as polarizing, then he'd get in. If they nominate people who have some appeal among independents, then he might not. But can he afford to wait that long?

Tony Fabrizio: When you have the potential to spend a billion dollars, sure. I presume he would be a Reform Party candidate. I would assume that given that one of the largest Reform Party units is in the State of New York.

And I would assume that Bloomberg has some type of relationship with the Reform Party chairman in New York. If you're the Reform Party and Michael Bloomberg comes and says, "I want to carry your banner, and I'm going to spend a half billion dollars to do it" basically you'd be nuts if you're the Reformed Party and you said, "No."

CBSNews.com: But do you think there's enough time to set up the infrastructure to get the 700,000 signatures to get on the ballot in all 50 states if he waits until March of next year?

Tony Fabrizio: I think that they're on the ballot in a number of states. And I think that the ones that they're not on the ballot, I think when you have a half a billion dollars you can get a lot done when you need to get it done. And I wouldn't be surprised if they're out moving around ahead of that time.

And what is the litmus test? I mean, who on the Democrats' side are the Democrats going to nominate that is so far left? Or who on the Republican side are they going nominate that's so far Right?

CBSNews.com: If Bloomberg called you tomorrow and said, "Okay, how do we position ourselves for a purely centrist, up-the-middle campaign that's viable," where does he stand on Iraq? Where does he stand on stem cell research? A lot of people have speculated that his positions aren't very different from the Democratic mainstream.

Tony Fabrizio: If Michael Bloomberg picked up the phone and called me, and said, "Tony, I want to be president, how do I get to be president?" I would tell him, "Michael, the best way to become president is for you to have changed position from Republican to Democrat a year ago. Say it was because of the war, and jump into the Democratic primaries and spend a billion dollars."

Because, fundamentally, if you look at what is going on today, and you look at the intensity that Democrats are generating versus the intensity Republicans are generating, what is the reason for a Democrat to vote for Michael Bloomberg, not the Democratic nominee? If you are most motivated by the war or health care or things of that nature, is the Democratic nominee going to be that far out of step with you?

CBSNews.com: Perhaps he is counting on a big pool of Independents and unaffiliated voters in the middle.

Tony Fabrizio: Ah, but here's the problem. If he ran his race, I am going to have to assume that he's going to be anti-war at the end of the day and he's soft on the social issues. So that means at the end of the day you could see a campaign by Michael Bloomberg where, in fact, he's running as a fiscal conservative, who's opposed to the war, and socially moderate. Now, who's that going to suck votes off of? More likely to pick up Republicans, disaffected Republicans and Independents who are uncomfortable voting for the Democrats.

CBSNews.com: Turning to the Republicans, Fred Thompson clearly appears to be getting into the race. There was a Rasmussen Poll this week that showed him leading nationally by one point. Can he really win this thing?

Tony Fabrizio: The truth is that I don't think he's leading yet. And the key operative word is yet. Short and simple about Fred Thompson -- if Fred Thompson gets in this race I will tell you right now, right here, that it's his race to lose.

CBSNews.com: Why is he so formidable?

Tony Fabrizio: He is so formidable because he is the guy that without even being in this race is filling the vacuum as the Consensus Conservative.

CBSNews.com: Mitt Romney is trying to fill that role and has made inroads in the early states, why not him?

Tony Fabrizio: Well, Romney is going to try to make a shot at filling it in the early states. But what's going to happen is that once Thompson gets in, one presumes that Thompson is going to be an equal challenge to him in those early states. Now, all of what I just said about Thompson is true, but can his team, whoever that is, turn all of this potential into reality?

• 1
• 2
• Next Page »

[starleo146]

What do they have in the water up there in New York, seems every Mayor or senator wants to be President.Do you want your country run like New York? Do you want your country to look like New York? Have you been to New York?

[pakaal]

Have you noticed that CBS is strangley silent on:
1) The Boxer/Clinton talk radio rebellion
2) THE DEMOCRAP Congress's ALLTIME LOW approval rating of 14%
3) The 9:1 ratio of newspeople supporting democrat candidates over others?
Posted by infidel_us at 01:19 PM : Jun 22, 2007

1. You mean what Inhofe says he heard Clinton and Boxer talking about "the other day" except now he says it was "three years ago"? Maybe if he gets his dates right, someone might start paying attention.

2. As alphaa10 already said in response "1. You misquote the Gallup approval figure, which is higher (19 instaad of 14 percent). You misinterpret the figures you read-- putting congress in either the "great deal" or "quite a lot" categories certainly counts for approval, not disapproval, so both categories count.

3. As Huskerarmy already said in response to this "Go home tonight and turn on your television. You will see Sean Hannity, Bill O'Reilly, Tucker Carlson, Glen Beck, Chris Matthews, Lou Dobbs, Michael Savage, Wolf Blitzer, Joe Scarborough, John Gibson, Greta Van Susteren, Britt Hume, et al... Not a liberal in the bunch. When this lineup ranging from nut job conservative to cluless pundits is done, we're lucky to get Keith Olberman. Your whinny, righty "Agree with me or your a liberal" media conspiracy nonsense is truely getting old.

I'd add to that "Stop posting the same *** on every message board, you troll."

[infidel_us]

Have you noticed that CBS is strangley silent on:

1) The Boxer/Clinton talk radio rebellion
2) THE DEMOCRAP Congress's ALLTIME LOW approval rating of 14%
3) The 9:1 ratio of newspeople supporting democrat candidates over others?

Very interesting. Biased? You BET!

[kiddbilly]

oops!!!lincolns'freeing of the slaves was his greatest deed.great insight !!!! you know your history.everyone forgets that slavery was the partys coverup for states rights.i wonder how our country would have evolved if the fereral goverment had protected the nation as a whole for which it was desinged. different states in different sections of our great u.s.of a. have different issues.although state goverments have some say in their backyards its still the feds telling us what we can do and not do!!!! get my drift

[flreason]

Sorry--that should have read "semi-autonomous...".

[flreason]

Abraham Lincoln a "bleeding hart liberal"?!!! What branch of the KKK do you have membership in? Whether states' rights or slavery was at the center of the war, both issues had to be resolved for the US to continue as a sovereign nation. Otherwise it would have devolved into a cluster of autonomous, competing political entities that would have squandered treasure and human capital on grievances with one another, and the US would never have attained a world leadership position.

[kiddbilly]

2082 harvard university:
class today we begin our studies on bleeding hart liberals that set back the united states by hundreds of years. i want you to focus your research on this list.abe lincoln,franklin d. roosevelt,lyndon b.johnson robert f kennedy.i want a ten page essay on my desk by monday about which one in your opinion was the worst offender.

[rushlimpdrug]

Headline should read:

"Let's Be Hatin' on Bloomberg"
- this is so much krap being shoved down our throats.
Tony Fabrizio is like a cruise missile with unlimited "gas" and a huge load of B.S. But nobody knows why it has a mustache.