Early Polls Often Unreliable

CBS' Kathy Frankovic: Fluctuations Common When Public Hasn't Settled On One Candidate

(CBS)  By Kathy Frankovic, CBS News director of surveys

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This year, voters are paying attention to the election campaign much earlier than usual — 69 percent in the most recent CBS News/New York Times Poll say they are paying at least some attention now. But does that mean that early horserace polls tell us what will happen next year?

Recent polling provides a good example of why we should be cautious — and maybe even a little skeptical — when reading poll measurements of candidate preference this early in a presidential campaign. About two weeks ago USA Today ran a front page story about possible changes in the landscape of the campaign for the Democratic nomination. The USA Today/Gallup poll showed the race for the Democratic nomination effectively tied — with only one point separating Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton — within the poll's margin of error. Clinton had been leading in all other national polls — and by a significant margin — so this poll appeared to mark a change in the race.

But this week, in the next USA Today/Gallup poll, results went back to their earlier patterns: Clinton maintained the double-digit lead over Obama she has held in nearly every other poll measurement. As reported in USA Today on Monday, Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll, said the previous poll "either picked up a short-term change or … was a function of unusual sampling, which happened to pick up Democrats who were more pro-Obama than the underlying population."

If even one poll can change so much because of no obvious campaign event, can we compare polls from different organizations? Frequently, we can't. This early in a campaign, different pollsters ask preference questions of different groups of people. For example, some polls ask their primary horserace questions to those who identify or "lean" toward the party being asked about. Respondents first answer a question about their general party identification (one version of that is: "Do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican or an independent?") and those who say they are independent then are asked if they "lean" more toward the Democratic Party or to the Republican Party.

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Listen To This Week's Poll Positions

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Other polls, including the CBS News/New York Times polls, ask primary horserace questions only to people who report they are registered to vote (about 80-85 percent of all adults interviewed). In addition, those registered voters are asked whether they are likely to vote in a Republican or Democratic 2008 primary or caucus.

Those differences make it almost impossible to compare results between polls. About three-quarters of the CBS News Democratic primary voters call themselves Democrats when they are asked their party identification. Fewer than two-thirds in Gallup's most recent Democratic preference poll were Democratic identifiers.

So what's going on in early campaign polls? Potential voters often choose candidates they are familiar with. Many announced candidates are simply unknown quantities. Even after his years in the Senate and a previous presidential run, 55 percent of Americans interviewed in an April Gallup poll still could not say whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Delaware Democratic Sen. Joe Biden. The earliest polls say more about name recognition than likely votes.

New candidates — such as Sen. Obama — often gain support in early polls when they enter the race. Voters don't yet know a lot about them, and what they know comes from the generally positive coverage, as well as the new entrant's effective status as "none of the above." For example, in January, more than half of registered voters who said they would vote in a Democratic primary/caucus had no opinion one way or the other about Obama. But 40 percent were favorable, and only 3 percent were not.

And then of course, there are the phantom candidates, not yet in the race, whose appeal says more about the candidates currently in the race than about how well the non-candidate will fare if he or she does join in. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson fits this category.

So was there real change in the Democratic horserace in the last few weeks? Was Obama first up and then down? Probably not. These early polls tell us about voter feelings, but they often have not been particularly good predictors of what will happen in an election. After all, four years ago, in June 2003, the Democratic leader in the Gallup Poll was Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, Al Gore's running mate in the 2000 election. Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt was running second. Whatever happened to the Lieberman-Gephardt ticket?

[sjc_1]

The margin of error is high, the kinds of questions that they ask and whom they ask is even more important in the early stages.

Some of these polls have a tendency to act like self fulfilling prophecies. If they show support of lack of it early on, that can swing undecided voters and firm up a position.

[guysdigdirt]

Hillary was recently asked what her first act would be as President if elected and she got a huge applause when she said she would bring the troops home. But she did not say she would bring them all home, even though she implied it. Not too long before that she told a group of VIPs she thought we should have our troops in IRAQ, and she foresaw a need for them to still be there after even after she finished her second term as President, if she did serve two terms. Will she tell the public that? No!

The difference between Hillary and Bush is only that one will stand up and take credit for what one does and the other will take the glory, but never face up to a mistake. Clinton voted to send the troops to Iraq but as soon as it was no longer popular, she turned her back on the troops.

You really want her leading the country?

[reel-crazy]

The very last thing I am going to do, after seeing the countless amount of sufferings this presidency has inflicted on America and the world, is formulate an opinion on who is best for this country 15 months before the election.

Early poll results mean absolutely nothing to me. If anyone knows who they are going to vote for 15 months prior to the election without a THOROUGH examination and evaluation of ALL candidates down to the wire, I pity them and our country.

It always astonishes me that the polls never reflect a 75%+ "Don't Know" ratio this early...

[forthepeopl1]

the people party is here already,are you ready

JULY 21 2007 IS WHEN AMERICANS WILL BE FREE AGAIN

EVERYONE THAT WANTS TO HELP WITH THIS SHOULD BE TALKING TO ALL MEDIA OUTLETS AND TELLING THEM THAT AMERICANS ARE READY TO TAKE WASHINGTON ON AND ITS NOT A FEW AMERICANS ITMILLIONS OF AMERICANS THAT WILL TAKE BACK THERE COUNTRY..

I AM WILLING TO GIVE MY BLOOD FOR ALL AMERICANS TO GET OUR COUNTRY BACK TO WHAT OUR FORFATHERS WANTED.

AM A VET AND AM READY TO TAKE CHARGE OF THIS AMERICAN BOYCOT/COOP IF WE THE PEOPLE DONT DO THIS NOW WE WILL BE GIVENING UP ON OUR CONSTITUTION AND WHAT ALL OUR VET HAVE DIED FOR..

DAVID A BELANGER,VET US ARMY,[e-mail]

ok so wants to join in on this great american REVOLUTION


they cant kill millions of americans at once so if we charge them all at once we will win and take them out and hang them all..

just like in the old days of the west...hang them from the trees in front of the whitehouse and see how many start telling the truth about what they have done to all us americans..


if the american NOW dont stand up and start a NATIONAL REVOUTION ON THIS WASHINGTON BULL S/H/I/T/ THEN we as TRUE AMERICANS can say nothing!!!

its time to take all this *** and take our government back now..

they are the ones that started this and we will finnish it now..we the people will take our country back and everyone in washington can sit there and thinks we the people are ok with what they are doing..

[gunownerdan]

Dr. RON PAUL- The ONLY candidate who would actually obey the presidential oath of office to protect and defend the CONSTITUTION.