Baghdad Security Plan A Success

Weekly Standard: U.S. Military Plan To Turn Sunni Insurgents Against Al Qaeda Is Working.

(Weekly Standard)  This column was written by Frederick W. Kagan.

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Several articles in the news in the past few days have raised questions about the success and even the wisdom of American efforts to turn former insurgents — and Iraq's Sunni Arab population in general — into allies against al Qaeda. Stories in the Washington Post and the New York Times highlighted the risks of this approach, and also made a number of assertions about the supposed "failures" of the Baghdad Security Plan that require a response.

John F. Burns and Alissa Rubin make a number of such assertions that need to be addressed in today's Times under the title "U.S. Arming Sunnis in Iraq to Battle Old Qaeda Allies":

1. This article notes that suicide bombings have dropped in Baghdad (and risen elsewhere) as evidence of the failure of the effort. We must remember that it is called the Baghdad Security Plan, not the Iraq Security Plan. If bombings are dropping in Baghdad, which the administration, General Petraeus, and everyone else who supported this proposal identified as the center of gravity — as the capital is home to roughly a quarter of Iraq's population — then the Baghdad Security Plan is working. No one imagined or promised that 30,000 troops would get the whole country under control in four months.

2. No one imagined or promised that the plan would work even in Baghdad in just four months. Saying that the plan has "failed so far to fulfill the aim of bringing enhanced stability to Baghdad" is both inappropriate and wrong. It is inappropriate because the plan is just starting to take full effect. It is wrong because both sectarian killings and, apparently from this article, suicide bombings are down in Baghdad. How is that failing to bring "enhanced stability" to the capital?

3. Burns and Rubin say, "An initial decline in sectarian killings in Baghdad in the first two months of the troop buildup has reversed, with growing numbers of bodies showing up each day in the capital." Actually, killings were down for the first four months of the buildup, not two. More bodies were found in the first two weeks of May, although a number were found in neighborhoods we had not been in and which were in advanced states of decay. General Petraeus noted recently that killings in the third week of May were back down. The rise in killings has brought the level back to one-half of what it had been before the surge (up from one-third). And we must remember that the figures were climbing steadily month-to-month at the end of 2006. It would have been an accomplishment to hold them steady; it is a major accomplishment to be keeping them at the current level. This article does not provide a source or attribution for this assertion, but elsewhere it appears that people are using figures from the Baghdad morgue, frequently reported through anonymous sources in the Interior Ministry. These are very unreliable reports, and the language is almost always "x bodies showed up at the morgue, many showing signs of torture." When the U.S. military makes its reports, they are very specific because our soldiers recognize the precise techniques that sectarian killers use and eyeball and count every body. That is why these reports are more consistent and reliable than vague and imprecise numbers being funneled via anonymous sources who likely have an axe to grind.

The article in the Washington Post mentions that we're negotiating with elements of the 1920s Brigades. For background on those guys, see this link. These are real, hard-core Sunni insurgent types. I'm very surprised that any of them are willing to talk to us. That's really quite an accomplishment. More to the point, I hadn't heard that they were having any difficulty arming themselves. It's not as though we're taking people off the streets and giving them weapons to form a militia. As far as I can tell, we've got two kinds of people coming into the fold: people of all kinds of backgrounds formally entering the Iraqi Security Forces through one of several ways in Anbar — amounting to 12,000 since the beginning of the year according to a recent briefing by General Odierno — and former insurgents who had been using weapons of some kind to kill us (else they couldn't have "blood on their hands" of any variety) who are now fighting with us instead of against us. In the one case, the fighting organizations are at least quasi-official and nominally under government control (which is not true, by the way, of the Jaysh al Mahdi or the Badr Corps). In the other case, we're turning already-armed insurgents around, taking biometric data, and giving them new weapons (whose serial numbers we keep). Is there risk involved? Of course. But the articles dramatically overstate the degree to which we are "forming" any new Sunni militia outside government control.

On the other hand, I'm sure that a lot of senior (and junior) Shia in the government are worried about this. And long-term success will require disarming all extra-governmental armed groups and ensuring that the nominally governmental groups being formed in Anbar become integrated into the ISF and come under real government control — which will require the government to reach out, and so on. But these developments are all steps in the right direction, not steps backward — it is a perfectly logical progression from insurgent to fighter against AQ to former insurgent, even for people who do not formally join governmental militias. And the Anbaris who are joining through normal recruiting processes are obviously on the right road to working with the government rather than against it. The trick is to keep moving forward and not to abandon the strategy that has gotten us in five months what four years of the previous strategy (to which the domestic U.S. opposition wishes to return) could not accomplish at all.

Concerning the possible fragmentation of the Anbar Salvation Council, the rest of the article in which this trend was reported casts into doubt the significance of the warning. It may be that a reorganization is under way, which wouldn't surprise me; and in any reorganization, the guys on the outs will make it sound as bad as possible. The Sunni tribes in Anbar do not all love each other and never have, and the politics are complex. The questions are: 1) Does the reorganization actually happen? 2) Does the organization fall apart or simply change? 3) Does it or some successor organization continue to work with us against al Qaeda?

All the trends within the Sunni community point to good answers to the last question. This report could be a bad sign, could be wrong, or could be a harbinger of a relatively unimportant development. We must stop reacting to word of every change, and to initial word of various disasters, with complete credulity and terror. Many initial reports coming out of the Iraqi political process are wrong, either because the people making them are ill-informed or because they are trying to spin various audiences (including us). Time will tell where the Anbar Awakening is heading; so far, it is heading very much in the right direction.

All of these stories, by the way, underline how incredibly important it is for us to be there and to be taking an active role, as we are now doing. We are serving as the bridge between the Sunni insurgents and tribal leaders and the Shia government. Before the end of last year, there were virtually no Sunnis willing to step on that bridge. Now, five months into the surge, tens of thousands are walking on it. It will take time to get them all the way to the other side, and it is possible that the Shia government will ultimately make it impossible. But one thing is certain: if we pull out now or abandon the current approach, the bridge collapses and it's the end of the story. But make no mistake about it: This is a strategy for success, if it works. We get them to start by working with us against a common enemy (can you believe it — AQ is the common enemy between us and the Sunni Arab community?), then we work to gain their trust, then we work to make the current government comfortable dealing with former insurgents (and almost any government would be initially resistant, by the way, to negotiate with former rebels), then we work to transfer the insurgents' trust in us to trust in the government, and work to make that trust reciprocal and permanent. It will take time and good fortune and hard work, and it may fail. In the meantime, violence is way down in Anbar and people who had been our sworn enemies are now swearing to fight al Qaeda both in Anbar and in Baghdad. Any objective observer would see these for the positive signs that they are.

[sjc_1]

The Weekly Slander is such a rag. Nothing but a right wing mouth piece. I remember them saying, just wait for the election in Iraq, just wait for a constitution, just wait for a legislative body, just wait for a political consensus and on and on.

It has been more than 4 years of waiting for something to happen, with the implication that it would all be better once it does. They are out of time and out of credibility. No more lies, no more waiting for something that is going to do no good and just delay the inevitable.

[sjc_1]

This looks to me like parsing the fine print to try to show that progress is being made. It goes something like "well, we never said it would...".

This is just disgusting. So it is more difficult to blow things up here, so they blow them up there. When the surge troops leave, they will blow them up here again. What is the point? It will not bring lasting peace there for the citizens of the city, why pretend that it will?

[jjreding-2009]

Oh give me a friggin' break. The 'surge' in Baghdad is like spraying an apartment for roaches. They spread out to other areas and infest a larger segment than they had in the beginning. If this is considered success, then I suppose we're VERY successful. I wouldn't say hooray for the good guys just because things in Baghdad SEEM to be getting better. In many ways containing the majority of the violence in Baghdad was MUCH better than spreading it throughout the entire country where we neither have the additional military forces nor can we put them there. This article is just more smoke and mirrors by the Bush apologists.

[samthetvcat]

Fred Kagan of the 'American Enterprise Institute' is the architect of the 'surge', so yeah I think he, Bush, Cheney, Rove, etc. all have a different definition of 'success' than the rest of the planet. Scary that a handful of corrupt, incompetent, delusional people can end up with the power to adversely affect the lives of so many people :(

[jn122736]

Kagan may very well be right about the surge. In fact the whole Iraq invasion thing could be called successful.

Consider the following:

Several people, including myself, posted many facts and or coincidences pointing to the distinct possibility of 911 being part of a larger plan to invade Iraq.

The bush administration was actively planning to take out Saddam long before 911.

The reasoning that three different buildings collapsed from being struck by only two airplanes defies logic.

The fact that nothing was done to prevent the second plane from hitting the second tower, or for that matter, the fact that no interceptions were initiated against the other two hijacked planes, is highly suspect.

It is hard to believe any administration could be so incompetent and reckless as to invade a country without adequate planning. Bush perhaps could, and may well be, but not his entire cabal (if cabal is the right word for it).

Isn%u2019t it POSSIBLE that this %u201Cquagmire was simply a part of the overall plan?

Whether it was or not, it couldn%u2019t have worked out better for them. What better excuse to prolong the draining of Iraqi oil and huge profits being reaped by the military industrial complex?

Of course we were all dismissed as conspiracy theorists then, but I suspect there are a lot more people now who are ready to, at least, have doubts.

[briannorwood]

Gotta get me some of that Kool-Aid , man. I think my wife will look like she's 18 again and I'll have a full head of hair and 10 inches!

[clestes-2009]

Yeah right. I'll believe this when I see pigs fly. More propaganda from Weekly Standard trying to bs Americans into believing something positive is happening in Iraq.

Considering that violence is up all over the country and Americans are being killed in record numbers, I'd say progress, what progress????

[neoconrcrazy]

Before the end of last year, there were virtually no Sunnis willing to step on that bridge. Now, five months into the surge, tens of thousands are walking on it. It will take time .....

freddy kagan, an american jew with a personal interest in killing arabs -

isn't he poetic - we Americans have created a "bridge" for the Sunnis.... they're coming back to mama.....we've won their hearts....

this guy is a number 1 jerk - and should go sell his BS somewhere else. Like in israel - get the helll outa my country!

[neoconrcrazy]

This Freddy Kagan is a nitwit neocon stink tanker - he's so full of shiite - he stinks to high helll.

He should take his judeo pro-israel dumbazz back to tel-aviv -

and leave America - fricking traitor!

[sparks224]

People were hanged at Nuremburg for starting a war under false pretenses.

[nearl4511]

OH OH I've been censored.

substitute- war mongering prostitutes!

or solicitors of carnal repute.

[nearl4511]

The "Standard" writers are on some drugs the likes of which none of us common folks have ever been exposed to.

How retarded an article - war mongering ***!

[feelfree1]

I look forward too seeing Mr. Kagan, Mr. Kristol, and all of their deadly, yet cowardly band of global PNAC pirates, brought before a war crimes tribunal.

I think that most of the planet will celebrate on that day.

[elz523]

Pull your head out of your a/s/s Kagan. Last month was the third most deadly for US forces since the war began.

[huanaco]

GENTLEMEN : NO LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL. IMPEACH THE MURDERER.

[imnho]

No matter how you try to spin reality the war is the proverabal "Dog that won't Hunt."

One of the big problems is that there appears to be no plan B when the surge fails. I think that GW is counting on being out of office when the war go's completly south

[ubrew12]

I find it more than a little ironic that if Saddam Hussein were alive today, we'd be arming him to take out the scum he was successfully taking out before we invaded.

[lawyertom1]

One has to admire their foolish optimism. In the same vein as "reality is a check that does not bounce", this so-called program will be deemed to be succeeding when we find al Qaeda bodies litering the streets, and the same weapons not being used on our troops. Until then, all is spin, smoke & mirrors, and any of a dozen other euphemisms for WS dreaming. Drawing from history one has some reason for doubt. Remember our buddies the Afgans that we helped vis-a-vis the USSR? I seem to recall that some of our former allies may have decided first, the USSR, then the USA. Oh well, those that do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. It would be just fab if it works (we could all do lunch and celebrate), but color me skeptical.

[quatermass2]

"We must stop reacting to word of every change, and to initial word of various disasters, with complete credulity and terror. Many initial reports coming out of the Iraqi political process are wrong, either because the people making them are ill-informed or because they are trying to spin various audiences (including us)."

Well, in other words, quit listening to The Decider, because his only remaining tactic is the ever-popular SCARE tactic, and his stooges specialize in SPIN. Tell you what: I'm not scared, and I don't listen to spin, especially when it comes from the Mouth of Sauron, aka Tony Snow.

[itchyb-2009]

Yeah, putting lipstick on a pig. What a waste of print.