Sometimes The Question Is Secondary

CBS' Kathy Frankovic: On A Few Issues, Public Opinion Is Constant, No Matter How You Ask

(CBS)  By Kathy Frankovic, CBS News director of surveys

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Which issues matter to the American people?

In just about every CBS News Poll since January, 2005, the war in Iraq has been the country’s dominant problem. That's measured by asking the public to say exactly what's on their minds, without prompting, using this question: "What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?"

This kind of "open-ended" question differs from many poll questions, in which people are given a set of choices. It's sometimes harder to interpret and there is a lot of diversity in the answers people give. Some people give extremely idiosyncratic answers that can be hard to categorize. But most of the time, several key themes recur. Since last December, there has been only one key theme: No issue except the war is volunteered by as many as 10 percent of the public. In the last CBS News/New York Times Poll, 31 percent named the war.

The first time a version of this question was asked was back in 1942, when the Gallup Poll put the question in the context of World War II: "Aside from winning the war, what do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?"

The top four mentioned then were the economic situation, the scarcity of labor, the food shortage and the need to make a lasting peace. Two years after the war ended, the question assumed the shape we know today. What were the top answers in 1947? High prices, foreign policy and preventing war.

War and peace and economic problems are almost always on people's minds. When there is no foreign worry and the economy is in good shape, issues like crime and even morality rise to the top. That happened in the 1990s, during the Clinton administration, but it hasn't been the case for years.

What the "most important problem" answers tell us are the subjects that are of most concern to Americans — and where the subjects matter, opinions are clear and well-held.

It's easy to measure where the public stands on the war in Iraq these days — it almost doesn't matter what you ask. Here are two examples from polls conducted in May. Between May 18 and May 23, CBS News and the New York Times asked: "Looking back, do you think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq, or should the U.S. have stayed out?"

Sixty-one percent said the U.S. should have stayed out of Iraq.

Earlier in the month, a USA Today/Gallup Poll asked: In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not? Just about the same percentage — 58 percent — said the U.S. made a mistake sending troops to Iraq.

Even though one question asked basically if the U.S. did the right thing and the other asked if the U.S. did the wrong thing, Americans knew what they wanted to say and gave fundamentally similar answers. The way the question was asked mattered little to the results.

Even some topics that don't make the top of the most important problem list can galvanize opinion and provide poll results that are consistent no matter how a question is phrased. I can think of at least three. One was long ago, in 1980, when the public overwhelmingly agreed with then-President Jimmy Carter that the U.S. should not participate in the Moscow Summer Olympics because of the Soviet Union's military invasion of Afghanistan. But two are much more recent.

In 2005, in every poll question, majorities of Americans supported the decision to remove the feeding tube from Terri Schiavo, who had been in what doctors called a "persistent vegetative state" since 1990. They continued to support it — and by similar margins — a year after the fact. There is no question that many Americans used the Schiavo case as a way of expressing their own desire whether or not to be kept alive in similar circumstances.

The following year, in surveys conducted by six different organizations (CBS News. Gallup/CNN/USA Today, Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, ABC News/Washington Post, Pew, and the Republican Winston Group), using slightly different wordings, between 66 percent and 73 percent of Americans opposed the selling of operations of U.S. ports to a Dubai-owned company. It mattered little whether Americans were told that there were six ports involved, that ports were at that time being run by a British company, or that security was being provided by the United States. Even when those opposed were reminded specifically that the U.S. Coast Guard would handle security and that other ports were managed by foreign companies, nearly all those originally opposed continued to oppose the arrangement.

Americans give real opinions when they are asked about things that matter to them. Measuring opinion on those issues is easy. It's when we deal with some other topics where opinions can be less clear — like polling about elections that are months away — that finding the right answers can be hard.

[antoniof123]

Here is the problem, crooks in Washington. Not just as khamron1 puts it with Jefferson (he has not been tried yet so our laws say he is innocent until proven guilty, after the trail we can say guilty). But it is wrost with the Repbulicans, Delay, Libby, Foley and the list goes on and on lately. So don't point fingers at others until you clean your house. The crooks or should I just say the mafia in Washington is out of hand. The few that are any good don't have any control or power. That my friends is the voters fault the public we do have the ability to change things but you have to use your gray matter. Stop listening to others.

[sjc_1]

"it took President Reagan to bring us out of an economic crisis brought on by (no other) than Jimmy Carter."

I believe the phrase would be (none other), but putting your syntax limitations aside, you are just wrong.

Carter inherited inflation from the Vietnam "guns and butter" policies of Nixon's four more years of continuing the war after he had a "secret plan" to end it. Some secret, it was so secret we never found out what it was.

As for Reagan, his trickle down supply side cult just increased the national debt at a faster pace than any other president in American history before him. The only guy that broke is record is Junior. What a legacy that is.

As for Reagan's so called economic policies, he counted on double digit interest rates to crash the economy in 1982 and cause the highest unemployment rates since the 1930 depression. If Reagan had his way, we would have recreated the Great Depression all over again. Those were probably his fondest memories.

[sjc_1]

"How can people continue to vote for Democrats? It is amazing to me that we find $90,000 stuck in a Congressman's icebox..."

Then there was the Republican Randy "Duke" Cunningham that was caught taking millions in bribes for defense contracts...what a patriot.

There was Iran/Contra selling missiles to Iran and funding the Contras illegally all the while saying that they were not.

[faboofour-2009]

Why do people vote Republican? The response by khamron1 makes it perfectly clear: unbelievable bigotry ("the only people who want to tear America apart is the Democrats") and unbelievable ignorance ("it took President Reagan to bring us out of an economic crisis brought on by no other than Jimmy Carter").

Because of the current administration's mismanagement, people are turning away from the Republican Party in droves. All that's left are bigots, the ignorant and the very rich. And, given the contribution surges to Democratic candidates, we're actally seeing even the very rich abandon the Republican party.

And THAT's truly unbelievable!

[sjc_1]

It may be that W and the neocons are trying to find a substitute and replacement for commies and the cold war. The cold war was very profitable for Republicans and their business friends that gave them campaign contributions to keep them in power.

The seemingly endless War on Terror is a proxy for the cold war. We have no idea how to fight this war, we have no idea when it will end and even if it does end, we will not know it, because it and its end are not defined.

[pepperp1]

Bush, thinks like an addict the only solution, any the justification of any act, is ok just to keep that fix, our drug of choice oil, coming to the US and UK 3,500 US soldiers and thousands upon thousands of Iraq dead is no deterrent.

[ioweign]

khamron1

And your brave Republicans created Viet Nam (IKE 1959 with military advisors) - I am surprised you haven't jumped all over the Great Deciders and the Chickenhawks military service record (lack of). And you don't or won't see the Republican corruption in this Admin. And how about Watergate and "I am not a crook!!" Corruption, greed and just plain stupidity plays no favorites and belongs to no party.

[khamron1]

How can people continue to vote for Democrats? It is amazing to me that we find $90,000 stuck in a Congressman's icebox, the same Congressman who hijacked military vehicles (who were supposed to be evacuating Katrina refugees) to take him to his home. Democrats in Congress sidestep their own rules to get earmarks into bills so no one can question them, and John Kerry and his ilk call American troops the real terrorists and blame America for all of the worlds ills.

I went to Vietnam and won a purple heart and from that moment on I could plainly see that the only people who want to tear America apart is the Democrats. First to complain; First to declare Defeat; First to stand in line for a government check.

On the wrong side of history from the beginning. The Democrats wanted to give up on the Cold War as well, and it took President Reagan to bring us out of an economic crisis brought on by no other than Jimmy Carter.

[tejasdemo]

The question that needs to be asked is this.....

How can people continue to vote for Republicans when it is clear they are nothing but shameless tought talking crooks who have been personally responsible for the maiming and killing of thousands of Americans ?

A. We're stupid

B. We're super stupid

C. Even though we have college degrees we have no ability to think matters through and come to our own conclusions, thus we rely on other stupid idiots to tell us what to believe.

[speakinup]

So, I maintain that it doesn't matter a whit as to how the question is posed too. It is the propaganda the media puts out that you read first that will influence the outcome. What ever happened to just telling us the facts, you know, a true representation of what is happening, and letting us make up our own opinions ?

These days, the media can%u2019t even get the number of dead in an airline crash right. How are they ever going to tackle something as subjective as Iraq without putting their spin on it ?