Pure Horserace: Something's Missing

The 10 "declared" Republican candidates meet in New Hampshire tonight for their third debate, taking the same stage the Democratic field occupied just two days ago. But tonight's affair may be as noteworthy for who isn't involved as what is said. Here are five things to watch:

Whether he's "official" or not, Fred Thompson is in this race now — and his absence from the stage will hang over tonight's debate in ways both large and small. The race is sort of frozen in place awaiting Thompson, but this event provides those who are participating one more chance to make their case to the conservative base, which has been restless to this point and has opened the door for an alternative. That could lead to some one-upmanship moments and even more criticism of front-runners like Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney.

Romney and McCain engaged in some of the most direct exchanges of the race when these candidates last met, and their spat has continued along the campaign trail. Romney has enjoyed a nice ride over the past month or so and is leading or challenging for the lead in the polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire. McCain's "straight talk" on immigration hasn't been playing well with a large chunk of the party. Look for at least a couple fireworks tonight.

Giuliani managed to shift the focus away from his social positions and toward his tough-on-terrorism talk last time, thanks to Ron Paul's assertion that past U.S. policy led in some way to 9/11. He's likely to try and repeat that performance, especially with the Kennedy Airport plot in the news of late. But there are signs of growing organized resistance, especially among Catholic groups, which he won't be able to totally escape.

Don't look for anyone outside of Paul to break from the president on Iraq, but the pressure is going to build on this field to find a way to deal with the unpopular war. A recent CBS News poll found that even a majority of Republicans believe the war is going badly. While core primary voters may be sticking in there, staunch support of the policy risks dragging this field down.

It's not the last chance for lower-tier candidates like Mike Huckabee, Jim Gilmore, Tommy Tompson, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo and Sam Brownback to make a move. But with the second-quarter fundraising deadline looming at the end of the month, it's getting late. Huckabee appeared to gain a measure of traction in the last debate; look for him and the rest of the field to try and find that very elusive breakthrough moment. — Vaughn Ververs


Keeping The Faith: Viewers received a rare look into the religious beliefs of the three leading Democratic presidential contenders last night at a forum in Washington on Monday night, an event that led to one of the few occasions on which Hillary Clinton has discussed her husband's infidelity.

"I'm not sure I would have gotten through it without my faith," Clinton said, referring to Bill Clinton's affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky during his second term. Other highlights included John Edwards discussion of returning to his Baptist roots after the death of his son in 1996 and Barack Obama's thoughts on how morality related to conflicts in the Middle East and, at home, executive pay.

As noted by the Washington Post, 80 percent of white evangelical voters backed President Bush in 2004. Since then, Democrats have been working on making inroads among that group, as well as Catholics. Among the top Democratic hopefuls, Obama has addressed his faith — and reached out to evangelicals — most explicitly. Edwards has often linked morality to his plan to eliminate poverty, one of the cornerstones of his campaign.

Clinton, a Methodist, has been the most reticent in discussing her religious beliefs, a fact she acknowledged at Monday's forum. "I come from a tradition that is perhaps a little too suspicious of people who wear their faiths on their sleeves," she said. This fact means she may have the most to gain from opening up a little about her faith — it would let voters see a more personal side to a candidate sometimes criticized for being too rehearsed.

And remember, Clinton's public approval ratings were never higher than when the Lewinsky scandal was at its peak. As hard as it may be for Clinton to discuss that time in her life, doing so, especially in a religious context, could make some people view her more warmly than before. — David Miller


Barack On Top? Has Barack Obama caught up to Hillary Clinton nationwide? That's what a new poll from USA Today says. According to the poll, released today, Democratic voters have the two in a dead heat, with Obama leading Clinton 30 percent to 29 percent in a matchup including Al Gore and Clinton ahead 37 percent to 36 percent in a field without the former vice president.

National polls are far less important than those in early states like Iowa (where Edwards leads) and New Hampshire (where Clinton is ahead) but they are buzz-worthy and can help or hurt the image and fundraising of candidates. Still, this poll appears to be an outlier since all other national polls have had Clinton with a fairly solid lead up until now. A CBS News poll last month had Clinton with a 46 percent to 24 percent lead over Obama. Stay tuned to see where the trend goes in future polls. — Vaughn Ververs


Prophetic Of Things To Come? Mitt Romney's campaign has already made clear that it will respond, quickly and strongly, to any attempt by another candidate to put Romney's Mormon faith in a negative light. Rudy Giuliani's camp learned that firsthand this week after circulating an article connecting Romney to a legend associated with The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

The campaign has admitted sending around a Salt Lake Tribune article that discusses the so-called White Horse Prophecy, which, according to the Tribune, "has the Constitution hanging 'by a thread' in the last days and a member of the faith riding in on a metaphorical white horse to save it."

Romney's campaign quickly released a statement after the article was circulated. "I sincerely hope that the Giuliani campaign did not send that e-mail out to reporters in an effort to provoke questions about a fellow candidate's faith," Romney spokesman Kevin Madden said. "They may have just been passing it along for other reasons, but given the focus of the article, they should be more careful since it could very easily be seen as an effort to question Governor Romney's faith. An action like that would be terribly disappointing."

Giuliani's campaign owned up to distributing the article, an action it called "a regrettable mistake."

This was only the first documented instance of another campaign bringing up Romney's religion. We expect that if there are any others, the next response may include even more forceful language. — David Miller


Editor's Note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.

By Vaughn Ververs and David Miller

[Vali585]

Yep, once again the political "observers" and strategists are way off. Apparently, they aren't buying their suits off the rack, either. The big news is Ron Paul. He was the only candidate who was awarded applause after each response. You do the American people a gross injustice by continuing to dismiss him as unelectable and unknown. Wake up, and get real! Clearly Dr. Paul is the only serious candidate in this field.

[tumbleweedin]

The only thing missing is proper coverage of RON PAUL, who is leading by a large margin in every poll I have looked at. Respect the facts...REPORT THE TRUTH you nim-wits.

[frb01]

Go back to 1973, we have not solved the oil problem since then, regardless of the party. You could take the same statements and play them today.

[huskerarmy]

It will be interesting to see if the big oil corporate strings that make all of these GOP puppets dance will be visible in the intense lighting.