New Hampshire's Political Pulse

CBS News' Brian Goldsmith Interviews Veteran New Hampshire Pollster Dick Bennett

(CBS)  Political Players is a weekly conversation with the leaders, consultants, and activists who are shaping American politics. In advance of this Sunday's Democratic presidential debate, CBSNews.com talked with Dick Bennett, the president of the nonpartisan American Research Group, to discuss Fred Thompson's entry into the race, Hillary Clinton's organization, Rudy Giuliani's campaign style, and how pollsters figure out who will vote.

CBSNews.com: Your latest American Research Group poll in New Hampshire shows Hillary Clinton maintaining an almost two-to-one lead over her nearest competitor, John Edwards —- a far broader lead than in many other polls. First, what does Hilary seem to be doing right? And second, what do you think the other polls are missing?

Dick Bennett: Well first off, she's Hillary Clinton. And she's using the Clinton organization effectively in New Hampshire. And I think that's the most important thing. I can't speak for the other polls, but what we find basically is her support is fairly consistent.

She's strong among Democrats, the core group of supporters. But her real strength is among women and she gets 43 percent of women in New Hampshire. And more women vote in the Democratic primary than men. Forty-three percent of women say they vote for Clinton, compared to 23 percent of men. And if she's able to attract and hold women, it's a great constituency for her.

CBSNews.com: How do you measure for likely voters in your polls?

Dick Bennett: We screen with a ten point scale. So one means that someone would definitely not vote in the Democratic primary. And ten means they would definitely vote. And we have two other questions about their intent to vote. And someone who gives a seven or greater will be included.

CBSNews.com: How do you control for people saying to a pollster on the phone that they'll vote and then not voting?

Dick Bennett: You can't control for that. But we know that people who are likely voters don't need to vote to represent the pool of actual voters. So if someone goes through our screen and they become a likely voter, whether or not they vote will make no difference, because they will actually represent the pool of actual voters on election day.

CBSNews.com: Only 14 percent are undecided in your New Hampshire poll on the Democratic side. Is that an unusually small number and does that mean that the task for Obama and Edwards and others to climb past Hillary is that much harder?

Dick Bennett: Well it's not that unusual. The biggest factor, since 2000, is the dissatisfaction towards George W. Bush among Democrats.
But the whole point of a campaign is that orders move in and out of candidates. Usually the candidates move up and down. And depending on what they do, depending on received performance, or what's happening in the state, what happens in Iowa, that kind of thing.

CBSNews.com:: You mentioned Iowa as a factor in determining how well you do in New Hampshire. How true is the perception of an Iowa bounce --that the winner in Iowa does better in New Hampshire?

Dick Bennett: I don't know. It may not help in terms of the eventual vote in New Hampshire. But it helps in terms of having that candidate be evaluated by voters in New Hampshire. So because the primary process is a sequential process, if someone does well unexpectedly in Iowa, voters in New Hampshire will look at that candidate. And they make a judgment of their own based on that. But, at least, they get the look.

But part of what Iowa does -- and the whole process does -- is it whittles out. So there will be some candidates who perform poorly in Iowa who will lose support in New Hampshire.

CBSNews.com: Back to Hillary, who we were discussing earlier. What does it mean in terms of her organization from a New Hampshire perspective that Billy Shaheen, former Governor Shaheen's husband, is chairing her campaign in the state?

Dick Bennett: Well it means that the Clinton organization is alive and well -- and that, among Democratic activists, they have a formidable organization. And it's extensive. And, you know, Obama has sort of the Gephardt organization.

And we'll see. But Hillary Clinton’s people are very effective. They know what to do because they've done it before.

CBSNews.com: How well would Al Gore, who won the New Hampshire primary in 2000, perform if he were to enter the race? Is there an opening for him on the Democratic side?

Dick Bennett: Well I think there's an opening. I don't know how well he would do. And if Hillary Clinton stumbled or John Edwards, I guess. But I don't see that as an option because I think that the Clinton vote is pretty satisfied with Clinton. And the Obama voters are satisfied with him. And the Edwards voters are satisfied.

And that locks up a lot of the vote that's out there. And the other thing about New Hampshire, and you see it on the Republican side, is that the voters here want someone to commit to the race. You know, earlier in the year when Rudy Giuliani spoke to the Republican convention here and didn't announce. Are you in or not? And I don't think there are very many activists sitting on the sidelines at the moment, waiting for Al Gore.

[forthepeopl1]

i would go head to head with them all and lets see who they would vote for after a debate..

no one in the media is asking what should be ask of them..

so they keep saying what everyone wants to here and not saying anything...