February 11, 2009 4:47 PM
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Pure Horserace: Thompson Tiptoes In
While all signs are pointing to the increasing likelihood of a Fred Thompson campaign for president, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. The former Tennessee senator reportedly will form a "testing the waters" committee as early as next week, but that does not make him a candidate — yet.
Such a committee would allow Thompson to raise money under federal guidelines, hire staff, gain endorsements and travel to gauge the level of support for his candidacy. If Thompson then decided to run, an exploratory committee or formal candidacy would then be filed with the Federal Election Commission and any funds raised would go into that, according to one source familiar with the process.
The point of this elaborate dance is relatively simple — it would allow Thompson to begin raising money before the second quarter comes to a close at the end of June without having to file a disclosure report to the FEC until the end of the third quarter, Sept. 30. If a formal campaign begins, all financial activities from the month of June would be rolled into the third-quarter report.
It's early in the campaign by traditional standards, but candidates already in the race raised tens of millions in the first quarter and are expected to keep up that pace for the period ending next month. On the GOP side, Mitt Romney reported raising more than $20 million at the end of March, while Rudy Giuliani raised $15 million and John McCain brought in more than $12 million.
For Thompson, it's a win-win scenario in some ways because this approach would allow him to test the waters without having to commit. Should his early efforts result in a hefty return, his camp could tout the numbers without having to file a formal disclosure. Should problems arise, Thompson could decide to delay a formal entrance or abandon the idea altogether. Under this scenario, reports of a formal announcement on or around July 4 make sense because that time frame falls after the second quarter deadline. But a source with knowledge of the discussions told Pure Horserace that no firm decisions have been made. — Vaughn Ververs
A Shake-Up Coming? Assuming that Thompson does end up entering the race sometime this summer, how does it impact the field? The effects will likely begin to be felt immediately. As the current field gathers in New Hampshire for the next GOP debate on June 5, the air will be filled with talk about Thompson, and he'll likely take attention away from the event. The race for money will also become more competitive: Thompson's inner circle includes an impressive list of GOP heavyweights and Tennessee moneymen.
Romney may feel it the most. He's been on a roll of late, as polls show him grabbing the lead in the crucial states of Iowa and New Hampshire. As GOP voters become more familiar with him, they appear to be warming to his candidacy. But Romney is benefiting in many ways from conservative unease with Giuliani and McCain — and Thompson could eat into that as well as take away the flavor-of-the-month aura surrounding him.
For Giuliani, Thompson's entry could help if social conservatives don't flock to the newcomer in droves because those voters would be spread out among several candidates, leaving him to court moderate and national security-minded primary voters. But should conservatives gather in mass around Thompson — or any other candidate — Giuliani's already difficult road in Iowa could get even rougher.
McCain's situation is more difficult to judge. On the one hand, the Arizona senator has maintained a strong position in all the early states, despite the problems his campaign has gone through in the early going — which suggests a firm level of support. On the other hand, even a slight drain from current levels will not help the perception that his campaign is struggling, which could lead even core supporters to start casting around for a "winner."
For the rest of the field, it's bad news. Lower-tier candidates like Mike Huckabee, who has begun to gain some traction after a strong performance in the last debate, will find any oxygen they currently have in short supply, both in terms of money and media attention. Most of this group, including Jim Gilmore and Sam Brownback, have sought to claim the same conservative mantle Thompson is aiming at but are doing so without his star power and buzz. Then again, maybe Tommy Thompson will be able to benefit from the name confusion two Thompsons could bring to the race.
Despite all the attention given to his potential candidacy, Fred Thompson is going to have to win the support of conservatives who are currently disgruntled with their choices. Conservative activist and direct-mail guru Richard Viguerie tells Pure Horserace, "No conservative is under any illusion that Fred Thompson is the next Ronald Reagan. But he's certainly better than the other three, and better than many of the second-tier candidates also. He's intriguing, and we're prepared to listen. He's got our attention and interest — but he's a long way from closing the sale." — Vaughn Ververs
Locking Up The Latino Vote: Hillary Clinton's image as an unstoppable juggernaut may not be what it once was, but the Democratic front-runner is still comfortable flexing her campaign muscles, as witnessed by a lengthy memo released today highlighting Clinton's support among Latino voters.
Authored by top advisers Mark Penn and Sergio Bendixen, the memo touts Clinton's 68 percent favorability rating among Latinos, 60 percent of whom plan on voting for her in the Democratic primary, according to a Latino Policy Coalition poll. The memo also rattles off poll numbers from nine states with high Latino populations, many of which come early in the primary calendar. Results from all but one of those states show Clinton with comfortable-to-overwhelming leads over her closest competitor. The sole exception is New Mexico, where she trails Gov. Bill Richardson by 6 percentage points.
Speaking of Richardson, the Clinton campaign send out today's release the same day it announced the endorsement of Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa — only nine days after Richardson officially kicked off his campaign in, you guessed it, L.A. Richardson, who is Hispanic, is still a second-tier candidate, but he has been moving up in polls in early primary states — perhaps today's news from Clinton will remind him of how far he has to go to catch up to the front-runner, even among Latinos. — David Miller
From Anchorage To Atlanta: The ever-growing roster of states holding 2008 primaries on Feb. 5 has two more members: Alaska and Georgia. That brings the "Super Duper Tuesday" list to 15 states; many more are expected to join up soon.
Most of the states that have moved their primaries did so to attract more attention from the presidential candidates. But we wouldn't place bets on seeing any campaign fly up to Alaska in early February. — David Miller
Editor's Note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.
By Vaughn Ververs and David Miller
Copyright 2009 CBS. All rights reserved. Such a committee would allow Thompson to raise money under federal guidelines, hire staff, gain endorsements and travel to gauge the level of support for his candidacy. If Thompson then decided to run, an exploratory committee or formal candidacy would then be filed with the Federal Election Commission and any funds raised would go into that, according to one source familiar with the process.
The point of this elaborate dance is relatively simple — it would allow Thompson to begin raising money before the second quarter comes to a close at the end of June without having to file a disclosure report to the FEC until the end of the third quarter, Sept. 30. If a formal campaign begins, all financial activities from the month of June would be rolled into the third-quarter report.
It's early in the campaign by traditional standards, but candidates already in the race raised tens of millions in the first quarter and are expected to keep up that pace for the period ending next month. On the GOP side, Mitt Romney reported raising more than $20 million at the end of March, while Rudy Giuliani raised $15 million and John McCain brought in more than $12 million.
For Thompson, it's a win-win scenario in some ways because this approach would allow him to test the waters without having to commit. Should his early efforts result in a hefty return, his camp could tout the numbers without having to file a formal disclosure. Should problems arise, Thompson could decide to delay a formal entrance or abandon the idea altogether. Under this scenario, reports of a formal announcement on or around July 4 make sense because that time frame falls after the second quarter deadline. But a source with knowledge of the discussions told Pure Horserace that no firm decisions have been made. — Vaughn Ververs
A Shake-Up Coming? Assuming that Thompson does end up entering the race sometime this summer, how does it impact the field? The effects will likely begin to be felt immediately. As the current field gathers in New Hampshire for the next GOP debate on June 5, the air will be filled with talk about Thompson, and he'll likely take attention away from the event. The race for money will also become more competitive: Thompson's inner circle includes an impressive list of GOP heavyweights and Tennessee moneymen.
Romney may feel it the most. He's been on a roll of late, as polls show him grabbing the lead in the crucial states of Iowa and New Hampshire. As GOP voters become more familiar with him, they appear to be warming to his candidacy. But Romney is benefiting in many ways from conservative unease with Giuliani and McCain — and Thompson could eat into that as well as take away the flavor-of-the-month aura surrounding him.
For Giuliani, Thompson's entry could help if social conservatives don't flock to the newcomer in droves because those voters would be spread out among several candidates, leaving him to court moderate and national security-minded primary voters. But should conservatives gather in mass around Thompson — or any other candidate — Giuliani's already difficult road in Iowa could get even rougher.
McCain's situation is more difficult to judge. On the one hand, the Arizona senator has maintained a strong position in all the early states, despite the problems his campaign has gone through in the early going — which suggests a firm level of support. On the other hand, even a slight drain from current levels will not help the perception that his campaign is struggling, which could lead even core supporters to start casting around for a "winner."
For the rest of the field, it's bad news. Lower-tier candidates like Mike Huckabee, who has begun to gain some traction after a strong performance in the last debate, will find any oxygen they currently have in short supply, both in terms of money and media attention. Most of this group, including Jim Gilmore and Sam Brownback, have sought to claim the same conservative mantle Thompson is aiming at but are doing so without his star power and buzz. Then again, maybe Tommy Thompson will be able to benefit from the name confusion two Thompsons could bring to the race.
Despite all the attention given to his potential candidacy, Fred Thompson is going to have to win the support of conservatives who are currently disgruntled with their choices. Conservative activist and direct-mail guru Richard Viguerie tells Pure Horserace, "No conservative is under any illusion that Fred Thompson is the next Ronald Reagan. But he's certainly better than the other three, and better than many of the second-tier candidates also. He's intriguing, and we're prepared to listen. He's got our attention and interest — but he's a long way from closing the sale." — Vaughn Ververs
Locking Up The Latino Vote: Hillary Clinton's image as an unstoppable juggernaut may not be what it once was, but the Democratic front-runner is still comfortable flexing her campaign muscles, as witnessed by a lengthy memo released today highlighting Clinton's support among Latino voters.
Authored by top advisers Mark Penn and Sergio Bendixen, the memo touts Clinton's 68 percent favorability rating among Latinos, 60 percent of whom plan on voting for her in the Democratic primary, according to a Latino Policy Coalition poll. The memo also rattles off poll numbers from nine states with high Latino populations, many of which come early in the primary calendar. Results from all but one of those states show Clinton with comfortable-to-overwhelming leads over her closest competitor. The sole exception is New Mexico, where she trails Gov. Bill Richardson by 6 percentage points.
Speaking of Richardson, the Clinton campaign send out today's release the same day it announced the endorsement of Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa — only nine days after Richardson officially kicked off his campaign in, you guessed it, L.A. Richardson, who is Hispanic, is still a second-tier candidate, but he has been moving up in polls in early primary states — perhaps today's news from Clinton will remind him of how far he has to go to catch up to the front-runner, even among Latinos. — David Miller
From Anchorage To Atlanta: The ever-growing roster of states holding 2008 primaries on Feb. 5 has two more members: Alaska and Georgia. That brings the "Super Duper Tuesday" list to 15 states; many more are expected to join up soon.
Most of the states that have moved their primaries did so to attract more attention from the presidential candidates. But we wouldn't place bets on seeing any campaign fly up to Alaska in early February. — David Miller
Editor's Note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.
By Vaughn Ververs and David Miller
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