2003 Intel: Iraq War Will Aid Qaeda, Iran

Senate Report Finds U.S. Intelligence Agencies Warned White House In Early 2003 Of Iraq War Consequences

(AP)  U.S. intelligence agencies warned senior members of the Bush administration in early 2003 that invading Iraq could create instability that would give Iran and al Qaeda new opportunities to expand their influence, according to an upcoming Senate report.

Officials familiar with the Senate Intelligence Committee investigation also say analysts warned against U.S. domination in the region, which could increase extremist recruiting. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the report's declassification is not finished. It could be made public as soon as this week.

The committee also found that the warnings predicting what would happen after the U.S.-led invasion were circulated widely in government, including to the Pentagon and the Office of the Vice President. It wasn't clear whether President Bush was briefed.

A National Security Council spokesman could not immediately be reached for comment Wednesday evening.

The report comes as the administration is facing renewed criticism for failing to execute adequate post-invasion plans to stabilize Iraq after Saddam Hussein was toppled. Meanwhile, the White House has been trying to make the case that Iraq cannot be abandoned.

The committee's findings are the latest chapter in its four-year investigation into the prewar intelligence assessments on Iraq. An earlier volume, completed and released in 2004, was highly critical of the intelligence community and then-CIA Director George Tenet.

That 511-page document found widespread problems throughout U.S. spy agencies and said the intelligence community engaged in “group think” by failing to challenge the assumption that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. Senators also found that analysts failed to explain their uncertainties to policymakers.

Yet, in predicting the effects of the U.S. invasion, the committee now finds that U.S. analysts appear to have largely been on the mark.

A former intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the decision to go to war had been made months before the 2003 papers were drafted and analysts had no delusions that they were going to head off military action. Rather, the official said, they hoped their warnings would be considered in the planning.

Since the release of his memoir several weeks ago, Tenet has been criticized anew for not doing more to warn Bush about the shaky Iraq intelligence and the consequences of invading.

Yet his book provided a glimpse of some of the prewar warnings about the consequences of invading Iraq.

For instance, he discusses a paper prepared for a Camp David meeting with the president in September 2002 entitled, “The Perfect Storm: The Negative Consequences for Invading Iraq.” Tenet called the paper a list of “worst-case scenarios,” which included anarchy and territorial breakup of Iraq and a surge of global terrorism against U.S. interests, fueled by deepening Islamic antipathy toward the United States.

He also notes that, in an early 2003 intelligence paper, analysts warned that “a post-Saddam authority would face a deeply divided society with a significant chance that domestic groups would engage in violent conflict with each other, unless an occupying force prevented them from doing so.”

The paper, which is believed to figure in the Senate investigation, also noted that Iraq's long history of foreign occupation means that it has a deep dislike of occupying forces.

Since 2003, the Senate committee — led by Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kan., and now Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va. — has been trudging through its investigation of what went wrong, frequently slowed by politics.

Last fall, the committee released new chapters on what was learned after the invasion about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and its links to terrorism and how information from an advocacy group, the Iraqi National Congress, crept into U.S. intelligence reporting.

While the first phase of its report was supported unanimously just before the 2004 presidential elections, the newer findings on the intelligence community's predictions about postwar Iraq have drawn dissent from Republicans. Details on the committee's vote have not yet been released.

[toolmangler-2009]

Let them talk, The CIA/NSC/FBI group is sending Roves emails over there already so apparently they don't care if they know.

[realpatriot1]

It's interesting to note that all the predictions about Iraq came true. What did not happen was a global surge in attacks against American interests.They did pull off the London & Madrid & Bali & Saudi & Algerian bombings. However, the terrorists have been largely twarted in the overall global sense and have not been able to pull off large numbers of attacks as predicted.

That could be because even though we have few allies in the war in Iraq we have many more in the overall war on terror and Iraq has not led to as great a radicalization in the Muslim world as feared . Non-Muslim & Muslim nations alike are threatened by Al Quaeda and we would do better to put all of our time and resources into cooperative efforts with our natural allies to defend our legitimate interests and to win the hearts and minds of the civilized world.

We need to isolate Al Quaeda in the Muslim world as much as possible and we would have even greater success if we took a more moral high road because the desire for peace is strong where the terrorists would most like it to be weakened.

Iraq is a costly diversion from that.

[sjc_1]

Colin Powell said "you break it, you own it". Agencies have said that the war in Iraq is creating MORE terrorism. Every day, more see reason to go to war with the Great Satin.

We should have never invaded Iraq. It was an illegal invasion, not sanctioned by the U.N. and condemned by most of the world.

Now that we are there, we have to make sure that it turns out right. This administration does not have a clue how to do that.

As the President said before the invasion "we are not in the nation building business". I guess we have shown that we are in the nation destroying business.

[forthepeopl1]

also get it in all blogs across the internet

EVERYONE THAT WANTS TO HELP WITH THIS SHOULD BE TALKING TO ALL MEDIA OUTLETS AND TELLING THEM THAT AMERICANS ARE READY TO TAKE WASHINGTON ON AND ITS NOT A FEW AMERICANS ITMILLIONS OF AMERICANS THAT WILL TAKE BACK THERE COUNTRY..

I AM WILLING TO GIVE MY BLOOD FOR ALL AMERICANS TO GET OUR COUNTRY BACK TO WHAT OUR FORFATHERS WANTED.

AM A VET AND AM READY TO TAKE CHARGE OF THIS AMERICAN BOYCOT/COOP IF WE THE PEOPLE DONT DO THIS NOW WE WILL BE GIVENING UP ON OUR CONSTITUTION AND WHAT ALL OUR VET HAVE DIED FOR..

DAVID A BELANGER,VET US ARMY,[e-mail]

ok so wants to join in on this great american REVOLUTION


they cant kill millions of americans at once so if we charge them all at once we will win and take them out and hang them all..

just like in the old days of the west...hang them from the trees in front of the whitehouse and see how many start telling the truth about what they have done to all us americans..


if the american NOW dont stand up and start a NATIONAL REVOUTION ON THIS WASHINGTON BULL S/H/I/T/ THEN we as TRUE AMERICANS can say nothing!!!

its time to take all this *** and take our government back now..

they are the ones that started this and we will finnish it now..we the people will take our country back and everyone in washington can sit there and thinks we the people are ok with what they are doing..go ahead and let them think that we are comming to take them out

[ralphj53]

May 24, 2007

Hello;

I used to be a proponent of a U.S. pullout of IRAQ... now, I'm having second thoughts. What if the U.S. pullout happens:

1. All of IRAQ could turn out to be the biggest TRAINING CAMP for AL CAEDA ever. It could make Afganistan.. before 9-11... look like a picnic.

2. We keep thinking of IRAN coming in to secularize the government of Al Maliki. This is NOT going to happen. They are more worried about ISRAEL than IRAQ.

3. Al Caeda is preparing to take over IRAQ... just as soon as we leave. They intend to use IRAQ as a STAGING area for terrorism around the world.

4. And then..... we will have to go back in... to do this all over again, that is... fighting terrorism.

5. The people of IRAQ have no backbone to fight this enemy. Just like Vietnam. It's always easier to lay back and take it in the you know what.

My view.

rjm

[forthepeopl1]

also get it in all blogs across the internet

EVERYONE THAT WANTS TO HELP WITH THIS SHOULD BE TALKING TO ALL MEDIA OUTLETS AND TELLING THEM THAT AMERICANS ARE READY TO TAKE WASHINGTON ON AND ITS NOT A FEW AMERICANS ITMILLIONS OF AMERICANS THAT WILL TAKE BACK THERE COUNTRY..

I AM WILLING TO GIVE MY BLOOD FOR ALL AMERICANS TO GET OUR COUNTRY BACK TO WHAT OUR FORFATHERS WANTED.

AM A VET AND AM READY TO TAKE CHARGE OF THIS AMERICAN BOYCOT/COOP IF WE THE PEOPLE DONT DO THIS NOW WE WILL BE GIVENING UP ON OUR CONSTITUTION AND WHAT ALL OUR VET HAVE DIED FOR..

DAVID A BELANGER,VET US ARMY,[e-mail]

ok so wants to join in on this great american REVOLUTION


they cant kill millions of americans at once so if we charge them all at once we will win and take them out and hang them all..

just like in the old days of the west...hang them from the trees in front of the whitehouse and see how many start telling the truth about what they have done to all us americans..


if the american NOW dont stand up and start a NATIONAL REVOUTION ON THIS WASHINGTON BULL S/H/I/T/ THEN we as TRUE AMERICANS can say nothing!!!

its time to take all this *** and take our government back now..

they are the ones that started this and we will finnish it now..we the people will take our country back and everyone in washington can sit there and thinks we the people are ok with what they are doing..go ahead and let them think that we are comming to take them out

[antoniof123]

Here it is the Repbulican party is lock step and is forcing Nancy and Harry to fund the troops becasue they care. Yes, they do have some other things in the bill you know like help katrina victims. Of course the Republcians want to say it is for bridges to no where, oh wait that was their bridge.

Do they think that we are stupid I hope so because if they think the wave was big in 06 wait till they see the wave in 08.

20 Republican Senators up for re-election I wonder how many more will survie in the next election. I know one that will not my home state. He is getting a little nervous now in fact he was crying to the President that he was hurting the party.

[gkc99]

So how does the True Believer/Decider respond when he has made a mistake? He makes another, bigger mistake along the same lines!

"Born-agains" (evangelical Xtians) believe the end of the world is just around the corner, when only Xtians (of their particular group that is) will be saved and everyone else will die a tortured death. As a born-again Xto-fascist, Bushit has no fears about Nuclear Winter. He welcomes Nuclear Winter, as it will be the vindication of his cult's beliefs.

Thus the "military exercises" off the coast of Iran. Hope yer fallout shelter is well-stocked!

[the74blaster]

It is not the failure of Bush but it's the failure of CHRISTIANITY and BIBLE from which Bush used to interpret all his plans.

Interesting point of view.

However, with any document it is the readers responsibility to correctly interpret what is being stated and to make the correct decision if leading others. The facts that should have been considered prior to invading Iraq are simple.

1. Is our military properly trained to combat gorilla warfare in hostile region where most of the people oppose us?
2. Is the estimated costs of the operation going to be offset by a realistic-tangible return to the taxpayers?
3. Is the justification for the operation sound and will it hold up to critical review by political leaders?

The answers for all 3 questions is a resounding no. As a practicing engineer I can assure you that my bosses would never let me proceed on project with this level of risk.

Essentually Bush is irresponsible and his employment with the government should be terminated. His actions with Iraq would clearly support this decision, that is if the democrats would ever get off their collective...butts and do something about it.

[rafterman1]

===No one knowledgable of the Middle East or history seriously believed that invading Iraq would lead to anything other than the disaster it has become.===

Righties aren't big on the idea of consequences to our actions.

[patriotic9]

It is not the failure of Bush but it's the failure of CHRISTIANITY and BIBLE from which Bush used to interpret all his plans.

What do JOHN HAGEE and PET ROBERTSON say about the current Iraq situation and how many more soldiers' lives we need to sacrifice for the 2nd coming of Christ.

After the falsehood of CHRISTIANITY been exposed as a result of Iraq war,should we continue supporting the NON-AMERICAN GOD CHOSEN ENEMIES OF THE GOD'S ONLY SON on the cost of the GOD-NEGLECTED AMERICAN LIVES and protect the NON-AMERICAN HOLY LAND by sacrifising UNHOLY UNITED STATES?
Posted by patriotic9 at 06:35 AM : May 24, 2007

[bluestardad]

HAVE WE MET THE REPUBLICAN SOLDIER DEATH QUOTA YET? THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE CAME UP WITH THIS SURGE PLAN DRAG THEM AND THEIR FAMILIES OUT TO IMPLEMENT IT!

Here are Senators from Military states that support Everything Bush has done to keep our troops in this Civil War in Iraq! 101st Airborne Kentucky, 82nd Airborne North Carolina, Fort Benning Georgia Home of Airborne, Texas, Armor Capitol of America, Fort Sill Oklahoma home of the Field Artillery !

McConnell, Mitch- (R - KY)
361-A RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510
[phone]
Web Form: mcconnell.senate.gov/contact_form.cfm

Dole, Elizabeth- (R - NC)
555 DIRKSEN SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510
[phone]
Web Form: dole.senate.gov/index.cfm



Graham, Lindsey- (R - SC)
290 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510
[phone]
Web Form: lgraham.senate.gov/index.cfm?

Chambliss, Saxby- (R - GA)
416 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510
[phone]
Web Form: chambliss.senate.gov/public/index.cfm


Cornyn, John- (R - TX)
517 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510
[phone]
Web Form: cornyn.senate.gov/contact/index.html

Inhofe, James M.- (R - OK)
453 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510
[phone]
Web Form: inhofe.senate.gov/contactus.htm




If you think Americas sacrifice is worth it contact your ELECTED OFFICIAL and tell them http://www.visi.com/juan/congress/

[patriotic9]

It is not the failure of Bush but it's the failure of CHRISTIANITY and BIBLE from which Bush used to interpret all his plans.

What do JOHN HAGEE and PET ROBERTSON say about the current Iraq situation and how many more soldiers' lives we need to sacrifice for the 2nd coming of Christ.

After the falsehood of CHRISTIANITY been exposed as a result of Iraq war,should we continue supporting the NON-AMERICAN GOD CHOSEN ENEMIES OF THE GOD'S ONLY SON on the cost of the GOD-NEGLECTED AMERICAN LIVES and protect the NON-AMERICAN HOLY LAND by sacrifising UNHOLY UNITED STATES?

[m_stender]

T_barr - you're are more right than you know.

Check this out
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=du9QWpCWbbY

(A video where investigative reporter Greg Palast - along with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., proving that the Republican Party still uses caging lists, and even has the indecency to challenge voters, because they are in - you guessed it: Iraq!

That's also why Gonzales fired the DA's - they wouldn't procecute the so-called 'voter-fraud' as there was none. They only persons guilty of fraud is Rove and his former right-hand man, Tim Griffith - yes the guy who NOW got one of the DA jobs).

And Roves missing emails? Here's some of them:
http://2004.georgewbush.org/deadletteroffice/headers.asp

Best
Martin

[m_stender]

T_barr - you're are more right than you know.

Check this out
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=du9QWpCWbbY

(A video where investigative reporter Greg Palast - along with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., proving that the Republican Party still uses caging lists, and even has the indecency to challenge voters, because they are in - you guessed it: Iraq!

That's also why Gonzales fired the DA's - they wouldn't procecute the so-called 'voter-fraud' as there was none. They only persons guilty of fraud is Rove and his former right-hand man, Tim Griffith - yes the guy who NOW got one of the DA jobs).

And Roves missing emails? Here's some of them:
http://2004.georgewbush.org/deadletteroffice/headers.asp

Best
Martin

[neoconrcrazy]

Neocons Rummie, Wolfie, Feith (with cheney too) lost Iraq and the ME when they:

1- ordered de-baathization
2- ordered disbanding the iraqi army thereby forcing 50-100'000 soldiers (with weapons) underground

sunni were most hit by these decrees which were the work of Wolfowitz and Feith, both holocaust extremists, who treated iraq as if it were nazi germany.

BIG MISTAKE - ALOT OF DEAD PEOPLE BECAUSE OF IT

[iceman_1960]

"hindsight = 20-20"
- Posted by ralan40 at 12:06 AM : May 24, 2007

That's the last line of defense for Dubya's incompetence.

Hear the words of Dubya's father, George H. W. Bush, spoken on February 28, 1999, to veterans of the first Gulf War:

"Had we gone into Baghdad -- We could have done it. You guys could have done it. You could have been there in 48 hours. And then what? Which sergeant, which private, whose life would be at stake in perhaps a fruitless hunt in an urban guerrilla war to find the most secure dictator in the world? Whose life would be on my hands as the commander-in-chief because I, unilaterally, went beyond the international law, went beyond the stated mission, and said we're going to show our macho? We're going into Baghdad. We're going to be an occupying power -- America in an Arab land -- with no allies on our side. It would have been disastrous."

You can cherry-pick that quote and quibble about details, but essentially the elder Bush foresaw what a mess his son's reckless invasion of Iraq has been.

That isn't hindsight. It's the foresight any competent president is expected to have.

Period.

[tuckerndfw]

In 1991, after the "Gulf War," Daddy Bush refused to order the invasion of Iraq for these same reasons.

Obviously, like many rebellious spoiled brats, his junior was too stupid to follow his father's good example.

No one knowledgable of the Middle East or history seriously believed that invading Iraq would lead to anything other than the disaster it has become.

And, it will remain a disaster so long as hostile foreign troops are occupying Iraqi soil.

George Bush is the worst president in US history. Without exception.

And, we do not need a multi-million dollar investigation to make that determination. His own actions and words speak for themselves.

George Bush should be on trial for conspiracy to commit murder and war crimes. Along with everyone else involved in PNAC's crime syndicate.

[dallison7]

Question: Why did Bush/Cheney lie about WMD?
Republican: Well, uhh... Clinton got a BJ!!!

Question: Where is Bin Laden?
Republican: Bill Clinton lost him.

Question: Should Gonzales resign?
Republican: Clinton should have resigned.

Question: Why did we invade Iraq?
Republican: Uhh, Monica... uhh... Bill...

[vet_sk]

So, okay. Let's get out. Then impeach all those responsible so the world knows that we are starting anew.
It is simple. The longer we stay, the more problems we cause.