May 21, 2007

Pure Horserace: Richardson's L.A. Story

Bill Richardson Highlights His Heritage And State's Importance In Los Angeles Annoucement

  • Video Democrats Work The South

    Since 1976 only Bill Clinton has managed to win more than one state from the old Confederacy. This crop of Democratic presidential candidates hopes to change that. Jeff Greenfield reports.

  • Video Republicans Take Jabs

    The theme of the evening at the second Republican presidential debate had a lot to do with the Rev. Jerry Falwell, but the candidates found time to take jabs at each other. Jeff Greenfield reports.

  • Democratic presidential hopeful New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson speaks to the media after officially launching his presidential campaign at the Biltmore Hotel in Los Angeles on May 21, 2007. Richardson vowed to repair the

    Democratic presidential hopeful New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson speaks to the media after officially launching his presidential campaign at the Biltmore Hotel in Los Angeles on May 21, 2007. Richardson vowed to repair the "ravages" of the Bush administration Monday as he formally announced his campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination.  (AP Photo)

(CBS)  Democrat Bill Richardson is the latest presidential candidate to "officially" start his campaign. He made the announcement on Monday in Los Angeles — highlighting his Hispanic heritage in the state where he was born and has gained new importance in the race thanks to its Feb. 5 primary.

Richardson has been called the "rιsumι candidate" of the race, so it wasn't surprising that much of his speech was based on touting a "proven track record" that includes his current stint as New Mexico governor as well as time spent as a member of Congress, Energy secretary in the Clinton administration, ambassador to the United Nations, and overseas diplomat to places like Darfur and North Korea.

"There are a lot of candidates in this race with good ideas," Richardson said. "But coming up with a good idea is only half the job. The other half is bringing people together to get it done. I'm proud of my record of getting things done. And I'll put that record up against anyone's."

Of course, being a presidential candidate is about more than speeches — it also requires weathering the small controversies that are bound to come up along the way. It looks like Richardson will be able to get his first one out of the way early.

According to the Associated Press, De'on Miller, mother of Lance Cpl. Aaron Austin, who was killed in Iraq, disputes Richardson's account of a meeting between the two, which has become a key part of his standard stump speech. Richardson says the inspiration for creating a $250,000 death benefit for New Mexico National Guard members killed in Iraq came from a talk he had with Miller, during which she told him that she received only $11,000 in benefits from the federal government.

But Miller says she never discussed how much money she had received when she met Richardson at the memorial service for her son, and she's asked Richardson for a written apology, along with a promise to never use her name or her son's in future speeches.

While Richardson's campaign acknowledges that the governor got some details wrong, including Austin's first name and age, during some retellings of the story, they insist that the core of the anecdote is true.

It wasn't a perfect first day for Richardson, but things could be worse. The day of Democrat Joe Biden's kickoff was dominated by stories about his statement that rival Barack Obama was "clean" and was the first serious African-American presidential candidate — remarks some said were racist. — David Miller


Delegates, Schmelegates: Florida Gov. Charlie Crist signed legislation officially moving up his state's 2008 presidential primary to Jan. 29. As we've discussed earlier, moving to that date — the same day as the South Carolina primary — runs afoul of the rules imposed by the national Democratic and Republican parties. As a result, the state could lose delegates to the parties' national conventions.

The response to this threat, at least among Republicans, has been "So what?"

"We felt that moving the primary up outweighed any of the sanctions that would be imposed on Florida," state GOP chairman Jim Greer said, according to The Associated Press. His comment reflects the reality that a win in the Florida primary means a whole lot more than having pledged delegates at a convention that has been little more than a four-day party and press conference for decades. Winning in Florida also means a candidate can appeal to a large and diverse group of voters in a state with several major media markets — a victory there could provide a huge boost going into the following week's "Super Duper Tuesday" that includes other large states.

While both party organizations have opposed Florida's move up the calendar — the Democratic National Committee is working with state Democrats to hold a separate, binding contest on a later date — their candidates don't seem to care. Both frontrunners, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rudy Giuliani, have campaigned there in the past four days. No campaign has signaled that it will avoid the Sunshine State, even though they might risk some backlash from South Carolina voters who want Florida to respect their claim on Jan. 29.

Another question to ponder is whether Florida is setting a precedent. Could other states in, say, 2012, decide influence is more important than delegates and move up their contests, no matter what party rules say? It could happen, though some states would have to stay put so it would still be possible to actually win enough delegates to clinch a nomination.

The only other option would be to scrap the delegate system entirely, which would eliminate the need for a convention at all — but as antiquated as they've become, we doubt either party is going to turn down the week of free media coverage they provide. — David Miller


A Spring In Their Step: Don't look now, but the presidential race is being shaken up in Iowa according to this weekend's Des Moines Register poll, with Mitt Romney benefiting the most. Romney, who has been on the air with ads in the state, leads the GOP field in the latest poll, a position most surveys have shown John McCain in until now.

Among Republicans who say they are likely to attend next year's caucuses, 30 percent say they support Romney while McCain pulled in just 18 percent and Rudy Giuliani received 17%. Perhaps more importantly for Romney, he increased that number among Republicans who say they plan on attending this summer’s straw poll, a closely-watched gauge of organizational strength. Among that group, Romney pulled in 34 percent.

The bump for Romney should nab his campaign increased media attention and help make his argument to donors that he has firmly arrived in the top tier of the GOP field. While his national numbers remain in the single digits in many polls, voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are likely paying closer attention to the race at this time and he’s now showing well in both states. But, as veteran political reporter David Yepsen observes, it also could raise expectations for Romney when the August straw poll rolls around. Still, not a bad problem for a campaign to have.

Among Democrats, Richardson has broken into double-digits at 10 percent. John Edwards, who placed second in the 2004 caucuses and has led in most polls this year, continues to be the top choice of likely caucus goers with 29 percent. Barack Obama received 23 percent and Hillary Clinton 21 percent. The fact that the candidates leading in most national polls — Clinton and Giuliani — are in third place in a state where voters presumably are more engaged in the contest will be something worth watching over the next several months. — Vaughn Ververs


Tune In And Turn It Up: According to the Chicago Tribune blog, The Swamp, XM radio and C-SPAN will launch a radio channel devoted solely to the presidential election next September. Now, you can avoid road rage by tuning into those thrilling stump speeches during your commute home. On second thought … — Vaughn Ververs


Editor's Note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.


By David Miller and Vaughn Ververs
© MMVII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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