Pure Horserace: Sunshine State Shuffle

Florida's Moving Up Its Primary, But Will Iowa and New Hampshire Care?

(CBS)  For months, dozens of states have worked on moving their 2008 presidential primaries to Feb. 5. Some, like California and New York, have already made the date official. While some have decried this move as being bad for the nominating process, it hasn’t caused any serious logistical problems: Feb. 5 is the earliest date states can hold a contest without running afoul of party rules by infringing upon the status given to early primary states, including New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada.

But now the state that made the end of the 2000 presidential race so complicated, Florida, is on the verge of complicating the very beginning of the 2008 voting. On Thursday, the state House passed legislation, which Republican Gov. Charlie Crist has said he'll sign, moving Florida’s primary to Jan. 29 — the same day as South Carolina's contest and a direct violation of Democratic and Republican party rules.

While Florida would still come after Iowa and New Hampshire, the "first in the nation" states don't like being crowded — feeling that it diminishes their impact. According to the Des Moines Register, there's a good chance that, when Florida officially moves up its contest, New Hampshire would move up its primary, now scheduled for Jan. 22, to Jan. 15, a week earlier.

Then Iowa, now scheduled to hold its caucuses on Jan. 14, would likely move its contest to a week earlier, on Jan. 7, in order avoid being so close to New Hampshire. The result: both the earliest-starting and the longest-lasting election America has ever seen.

The Democratic National Committee is trying to prevent this domino effect before it gets a chance to start. "This is not the first time that a state legislature has set its primary on a date outside DNC party rules," spokeswoman Stacie Paxton said. "As with similar situations in the past, the DNC is working closely with the state party to look at the alternatives for proceeding in accordance with the rules on or after Feb. 5."

One of those alternatives, one that's been used in the past, involves the state party refusing to allocate delegates based on the state-ordered primary date and instead holding its own caucus on a date that doesn't violate any rules. That move would turn the state-run primary into a non-binding "beauty contest" and would reduce pressure on New Hampshire to make any changes.

The situation for the Republicans is more interesting. While the state Democratic Party may feel no need to adhere to a bill passed by a Republican legislature and signed by a Republican governor, the state GOP may be under more pressure to move up its contest and make it binding. An added complication: One of the RNC's co-chairmen is Sen. Mel Martinez, who represents Florida. For now, the RNC says it won't address the situation until state parties submit their nominating contest plans in September.

However, it's unlikely either Florida party will end up losing delegates once this plays out. Other states have moved up their contests to protest the supremacy of Iowa and New Hampshire and have always worked out a compromise later that preserves their delegations.

So don't pencil in the Iowa caucuses for Jan. 7 just yet. This could be a whole lot of sound and fury. — David Miller


Getting Down With The Doves: Hillary Clinton received a lot of praise for her forceful words during last week's South Carolina debate describing how she would respond to a terrorist attack: "If we are attacked, and we can determine who is behind that attack, and if there are nations that supported or gave material aid to those who attacked us, I believe we should quickly respond," she said. "So let's focus on those who have attacked us and do everything we can to destroy them."

The problem is that Clinton is pursuing the Democratic nomination, and a lot of the praise she received came from conservatives.

So what's a hawkish Democrat to do? Clinton's answer appears to be co-sponsoring a bill with stridently anti-war Sen. Robert Byrd, D-W.Va., that would require the president to seek a reauthorization from Congress to extend the military effort in Iraq beyond Oct. 11, 2007.

The bill's prospects aren't too bright, but the measure does serve a political end for Clinton by showing voters that she's taking actions to bring the war — almost universally unpopular among Democrats — to a close. Her move also provides her with another response when her rivals in the race, particularly John Edwards, refer to her refusal to apologize for her vote to authorize the war in 2002.

But is the timing going to be a problem? One frequent criticism of Clinton is that she is too rehearsed and too driven by polls. Bringing up this legislation so soon after the debate could open her up to those attacks once again. It also does little to hurt her top competitor, Barack Obama, who introduced legislation months ago that would have withdrawn troops from Iraq. — David Miller


Two Months, Two Apologies For Thompson: Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson's campaign got off to a bad start in April when he told a Jewish group, "I'm in the private sector, and for the first time in my life I'm earning money. You know, that's sort of part of the Jewish tradition, and I do not find anything wrong with that."

Thompson, whose campaign has had a hard time getting off the ground, later said a cold and fatigue were to blame for his statements.

But there's no word yet on what Thompson is blaming for his latest misstatement, which came at Thursday's debate. Thompson said business owners had the right to fire a gay worker if they believed homosexuality to be immoral.

But in a phone interview on CNN today, Thompson said he "misinterpreted" the question. "That's never been my position," he said.

In an earlier Horserace, we compared Thompson to Joe Biden, whose own campaign also got off to a bad start because of a verbal gaffe. Apparently, that's where the comparison will end: Biden impressed many with his debate performance and even scored the most memorable laugh line. Thompson, on the other hand, may have dug himself further into a hole. — David Miller


We Hope He Just Likes "Survivor" and "CSI": President Bush isn't popular in the polls, and he wasn't a very popular person at last night's Republican debate. While Ronald Reagan's name was invoked more than a dozen times, Bush rated only a handful of mentions.

So it doesn't come as a shock to us that the president cast his attention elsewhere when the Republicans who hope to succeed him were on TV. White House spokeswoman Dana Perino didn't know what Bush was up to Thursday night, according to CBS News’ Mark Knoller, but she confirmed the president wasn't watching the debate. — David Miller


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