Assessing Iran's Nuclear Program

U.S. Intelligence Holds Firm That Iranian Nuclear Bomb Is Possible By 2010, Likely By 2015

(CBS)  The head of Israel's foreign intelligence service, the Mossad, has said that his country believes that Iran could have a nuclear weapon by 2009, an assertion Meir Dagan repeated in Dec. 2006. Ambassador Negroponte, asked about the Israeli estimate, replied, "I think that sometimes what the Israelis will do, and I think that perhaps because it's a more existential issue for them, they will give you the worst-case assessment."

Other analysts say that only if Iran were able to resolve all of it's considerable technical difficulties, it might be able to produce enough fissile material for a single nuclear weapon by 2009.

A Pakistani official, familiar with the Iranian nuclear program and speaking to CBS News on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject, said Iran remains far away from a 'stable nuclear weapons program.'

"Even if Iran produced its first bomb, that in itself can not qualify it to become a nuclear power," said the official. "It's one thing to be able to make a bomb or two. The essential point is, how far can you sustain that effort. In Iran's case, a nuclear test would not prove that Iran has become an unqualified nuclear power. It would then have to demonstrate that it can keep up the effort."

But Iran's attempts at enrichment have been plagued with problems at almost every stage, and it is not clear how much progress Iran has made towards resolving those problems

One western diplomat familiar with the Iranian program has described the yellowcake produced by Iran (an intermediate and necessary step in uranium processing) as 'crap' and 'full of impurities'.

The pilot Iranian centrifuge facility for enriching uranium still does not operate smoothly after more than a year, and a number of U.S. officials have confirmed in recent months there are continuing technical problems. Iran has been unable to run the small number of centrifuge cascades at the above ground complex close to the huge underground facility at Natanz without frequent breakdowns and even centrifuge failures.

Iran claims to have enriched uranium to 5% (a level far below the minimum 85% required for highly enriched, or weapons grade uranium). IAEA tests have confirmed a maximum enrichment of only 4.2%

The problems are beyond the issue of Iran's technical competence in the enrichment process. In January 2007, Iranian Vice President Gholamreza Aghazadeh, who heads the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran told reporters that in April 2006, shortly after Iran began to install and operate centrifuge cascades at the pilot plant, 50 centrifuges exploded during a test.

The report appeared in the reformist Iranian paper Ayande-ye Now (New Future), an enthusiastic supporter of the country's nuclear program. "We had installed 50 centrifuges. One night I was informed that all 50 had exploded," Aghazadeh is quoted as saying. "The 'UPS' (uninterruptible power supply) in charge of controlling the electricity had not acted properly. Later we found out that the UPS we had imported through Turkey had been manipulated."

Paul Kerr, a research analyst at the Washington based Arms Control Association, who blogs at www.armscontrolwonk.com, has speculated on-line that the reference to 'manipulation' suggests the possibility of sabotage of dual-use exports to Iran.

The revelation of Iran's covert nuclear program four years ago revealed ties to Abdul Qadeer Khan, the so-called father of Pakistan's nuclear program, and a serial proliferator. Khan conceded publicly that he sold nuclear know how and technology including key components to Iran and Libya.

During the Iran related investigations, the IAEA was given access by the Pakistani government to Pakistani nuclear centrifuges of the kind sold by Khan to the Iranians. Speaking to CBS News on the condition that he would named be named, a Pakistani official familiar with the U.N. agency's discussions with Pakistan on the Iranian case said the current stock of Iran's centrifuges which are used to enrich uranium by separating radioactive material from raw uranium are capable of "producing just limited amounts which can not equip it with the capability of a sustainable bomb program."

And, a senior Arab intelligence official, speaking to CBS News on the condition that he not be named, said it was unclear if Iran's nuclear establishment had made progress to the "bomb making stage or that it is capable of doing that any time soon."

He said: "Iran has been a heavily sanctioned country for almost 27 years (since the Iranian revolution of 1979). It's not easy for countries in that position to put together a sizeable nuclear program."

But some U.S. officials, arms control experts and analysts continue to be concerned that the enrichment facility at Natanz is in fact, a front, and that Iran operates a second, covert, and perhaps more advanced, enrichment program elsewhere.

[zootallures2]

If I'm not mistaken, Iran has the second largest Jewish population. Also, Ahmadinejad donated something like a million dollars to a Synagogue in Tehran.

[randalds]

I wonder, do "I hate Bush" t-shirts protect from Iranian nuke weapons?
Posted by badaxmofo at 06:27 PM : Apr 04, 2007

Oh of course they will. They'll protect us from any serious credible threat of a nuclear attack from Iran BECAUSE THERE ISN'T ONE!!! I have my favorite one that has a picture of the as*shole Bush and it says "worst president EVER!" and I feel just as safe from an Iranian nuclear attack wearing that as wearing nothing at all.

[fredgrad2000]

Israeli propaganda led us to WMD!? OK..how about UN inspections, Saddam's use of them in the past and his deceptions of legal UN inspections, our intelligence (led by Bill Clinton appointed CIA director), French Intelligence, British Intelligence, Russian Intelligence, Chinese Intelligence...it wasn't an Israeli conspiracy!! Was it wrong? Yep, but to blame Israel sounds like something our "gift bestowing religious man of the people" Ahmadinejad would say...With all the talk of the warmongering Bush and AIPAC, etc. in this, let's remember who just kidnapped British soldiers and that its Iran killing our troops right now in Iraq, not the other way around...I'm not for military action against Iran at this time, but to blame Israel and our administration for distrusting the "peaceful" nuclear intentions of the Central Bank of Terrorism and a country who's official meetings start with chants of "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" (and newly "Death to Britain") is idiocy.

[grazinggoat]

Why are LIBS always in defense of America's enemies?
Posted by MBCSMITH

-No doubt this case can really return against you MBCSMART, why are you saying we're defending the enemy? We're just stating historical abd verifiable facts realted to the great capacity of GWalking-LiarBush and his AIPAC-Oil&Guns paranoid-complexed-cronies, of generating lies... tons of them.

[book54552134]

Israel passed around the same type of propaganda about Iraqi WMD prior to the American invasion of Iraq. Israel will agressively assist the Bush Administration in regard to Iran if it is the wish of the Bush Administration to do so.
The point is, people should not believe anything that comes out of this cabal. They have been lying to us often and consistantly from the get-go.

[mbcsmith]

own use. I mean after all do you think the Western world well help (or even give a sh*it) about the Middle-East once the black gold is gone?
Posted by RandalDS at 03:02 PM : Apr 04, 2007


Why are LIBS always in defense of America's enemies?

[randalds]

They have all that oil! What do they need nuclear power for! Huh! Huh! Got you there! I'm so fu*cking smart!".
Posted by RandalDS

-There you go, fricking smart...
Posted by grazinggoat at 03:25 PM : Apr 04, 2007

LOL!

[grazinggoat]

They have all that oil! What do they need nuclear power for! Huh! Huh! Got you there! I'm so fu*cking smart!".
Posted by RandalDS

-There you go, fricking smart...

[Syndicate]

Looks like some one has their panties in a bunch.

[randalds]

Of course we will shortly get to see republicans who believe they have a "sudden insight" asking the same da*mn fool question "Oh yeah! They have all that oil! What do they need nuclear power for! Huh! Huh! Got you there! I'm so fu*cking smart!".

Yes, Iran has a lot of oil, but it's much more profitable for them to sell it on the world market then to use it for their own power needs. Besides (and try to follow me here Bushies) someday, sooner then later, they're going to run out of oil (it does run out you know) and they'll need nuclear power for their own use. I mean after all do you think the Western world well help (or even give a sh*it) about the Middle-East once the black gold is gone?

[grazinggoat]

CBS just got the order to publish this krap in order to turn the situation in favor of a military move, after the great acceptance by bloggers and readers, of a nice move done by AhMandyN'Jade.

Masoud Zaribafan visit the Natanz uranium enrichment facilities some 200 miles south of the capital Tehran on Wednesday, Feb. 15, 2006. (AP)

Of course easy thing to dig the dead back and show it to public, as shown on the pic dated back to February 15, 2006, 2006, 2006.
Who issued this order to you CBS?
The evilization should go on. Non stop...