February 11, 2009 5:05 PM
- Text
Assessing Iran's Nuclear Program
(CBS)
By Sheila MacVicar with Farhan Bokhari in Islamabad and David Martin in Washington. Additional information from the Assosicated Press.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad issued a warning on Wednesday to major world powers, saying they could not deprive Iran of its right to nuclear technology by issuing U.N. resolutions.
But the President refused to say what new progress Iran had made in its efforts to master nuclear technology and uranium enrichment, telling a news conference in Teheran "you will have good news soon, God willing."
In January, Ahmedinejad announced that 3,000 additional centrifuges, used to enrich uranium, would be installed by May of this year at the underground enrichment plant at Natanz.
The U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported this February that two cascades linking 164 centrifuges had been installed at the underground facility and another two cascades were, at that time, under construction, for a total of nearly 700 centrifuges. IAEA inspectors returned to Natanz last week and work there has been on-going. Negotiations, described by diplomats as 'highly sensitive' are underway to get Iran to agree to additional, and continuous monitoring using remote cameras controlled by the agency.
Natanz is described by some diplomats as 'Iran's nuclear fortress.' Satellite imagery shows an above ground pilot plant, and a concealed entrance to the vast, and still, mostly empty enrichment hall, located more than seventy feet underground and designed to withstand aerial strikes. It has the capacity to hold more than 50,000 centrifuges. Iran kept the existence of the Natanz facility, and the extent of a twenty year covert effort to acquire nuclear technology, secret until they were revealed by an opposition group in 2002.
Iran insists it is interested in nuclear technology only to produce electricity. While acknowledging Iran's right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy, governments – including the U.S., those of Iran's neighbours, Europe and Russia – remain very concerned that Iran intends to covertly build nuclear weapons. Iran has defied U.N. Security Council resolutions which demand that it suspend all enrichment activity and co-operate fully with the IAEA. The IAEA, in a recent report to its' Board of Governors, says that Iran has 'continued to operate single machines, as well as the 10, 24 and 164 machine cascades' at an above ground pilot plant.
Sources familiar with the Iranian program told CBS News that although new centrifuges had been installed, they were not yet operational. Nuclear fuel for enrichment at the underground plant remains under IAEA seal, and no enrichment has been attempted or taken place.
In spite of the installation of additional centrifuges, CBS News has learned that neither the CIA, the Defense Intelligence Agency, nor the Director of National Intelligence have changed their estimates of when Iran could have a nuclear weapon. The time frame most often mentioned is 2012-2015. And senior diplomats, security experts and officials familiar with investigations by the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog into the Iranian program have told CBS News that Iran faces a number of technical difficulties in expanding its nuclear program and remains five to ten years away from becoming potentially armed with nuclear weapons.
In an interview with NPR in September, 2006 (after Iran had begun to operate the pilot enrichment facility), the Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte characterized the U.S. assessment this way: "This is a judgement that was formed over a period of time based on all sources of intelligence that we have, and I think those basic pieces remain in place today, both the determination to acquire such a capability and the efforts that are underway to achieve that."
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad issued a warning on Wednesday to major world powers, saying they could not deprive Iran of its right to nuclear technology by issuing U.N. resolutions.
But the President refused to say what new progress Iran had made in its efforts to master nuclear technology and uranium enrichment, telling a news conference in Teheran "you will have good news soon, God willing."
In January, Ahmedinejad announced that 3,000 additional centrifuges, used to enrich uranium, would be installed by May of this year at the underground enrichment plant at Natanz.
The U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported this February that two cascades linking 164 centrifuges had been installed at the underground facility and another two cascades were, at that time, under construction, for a total of nearly 700 centrifuges. IAEA inspectors returned to Natanz last week and work there has been on-going. Negotiations, described by diplomats as 'highly sensitive' are underway to get Iran to agree to additional, and continuous monitoring using remote cameras controlled by the agency.
(AP)
Iran insists it is interested in nuclear technology only to produce electricity. While acknowledging Iran's right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy, governments – including the U.S., those of Iran's neighbours, Europe and Russia – remain very concerned that Iran intends to covertly build nuclear weapons. Iran has defied U.N. Security Council resolutions which demand that it suspend all enrichment activity and co-operate fully with the IAEA. The IAEA, in a recent report to its' Board of Governors, says that Iran has 'continued to operate single machines, as well as the 10, 24 and 164 machine cascades' at an above ground pilot plant.
Sources familiar with the Iranian program told CBS News that although new centrifuges had been installed, they were not yet operational. Nuclear fuel for enrichment at the underground plant remains under IAEA seal, and no enrichment has been attempted or taken place.
In spite of the installation of additional centrifuges, CBS News has learned that neither the CIA, the Defense Intelligence Agency, nor the Director of National Intelligence have changed their estimates of when Iran could have a nuclear weapon. The time frame most often mentioned is 2012-2015. And senior diplomats, security experts and officials familiar with investigations by the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog into the Iranian program have told CBS News that Iran faces a number of technical difficulties in expanding its nuclear program and remains five to ten years away from becoming potentially armed with nuclear weapons.
In an interview with NPR in September, 2006 (after Iran had begun to operate the pilot enrichment facility), the Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte characterized the U.S. assessment this way: "This is a judgement that was formed over a period of time based on all sources of intelligence that we have, and I think those basic pieces remain in place today, both the determination to acquire such a capability and the efforts that are underway to achieve that."
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