"Very Active" Hurricane Season Predicted

Top Forecaster Expects 17 Named Storms, Including 5 Major Hurricanes

(CBS/AP)  The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be "very active," with nine hurricanes and a good chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coast, a top researcher said Tuesday.

Forecaster William Gray of Colorado State University said he expects 17 named storms in all this year, five of them major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast this year is 74 percent, he said.

"There's about a 74 percent chance of a major storm hitting the U.S. coast this year, when the long-term average is about 52" percent, Dr. William Gray, Colorado State University forecaster, told CBS News Radio.

Last year, Gray's forecast and government forecasts were higher than what the Atlantic hurricane season produced. He expected five major hurricanes, but there were only two. And none hit the U.S., CBS News correspondent Mark Strassmann reports.

"We're not perfect. Nobody is. We over-forecast last year, as did everybody else," Gray tells Strassmann.

There were 10 named Atlantic storms in 2006 and five hurricanes, two of them major, in what was considered a "near normal" season. None of those hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast — only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945. The National Hurricane Center in Miami originally reported nine storms, but upgraded one storm after a postseason review.

Gray's research team at Colorado State University said an unexpected late El Nino contributed to the calmer season last year. El Nino — a warming in the Pacific Ocean — has far-reaching effects that include changing wind patterns in the eastern Atlantic, which can disrupt the formation of hurricanes there.

A weak-to-moderate El Nino occurred in December and January but dissipated rapidly, said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team.

"Conditions this year are likely to be more conducive to hurricanes," Klotzbach said Tuesday. In the absence of El Nino, "winds aren't tearing the storm systems apart."

"If you don't get La Nina right, you don't get the forecast right," CBS News hurricane consultant Brian Norcross says.

Gray and his research team study the interplay between atmospheric winds developing in the Pacific, and ocean water temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean, Strassmann reports.

Klotzbach advised coastal residents along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts to have hurricane plans and preparedness kits in place, but he added, "You can't let the possibility of a hurricane coming ruin your summer."

The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, averages 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

The 2007 season is not expected to be as bad as the 2005 season, which is now infamous for producing Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. That season saw at least 27 named storms — seven of which were considered intense hurricanes, CBS News' Jennifer Miller reports. The worst of the 2005 storms was Katrina, which devastated New Orleans and leveled parts of the Gulf Coast region.

Gray has spent more than 40 years in tropical weather research. He heads the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State.

Gray's predication comes amidst much attention on global warming and how it could affect weather around the globe. But Gray disagrees with those who blame hurricane activity on human-induced global warming, Miller reports.

"I don't think people should read too much into all the hype on
global warming and CO2," he said. "We think these are well within the natural range."

Federal government forecasters plan to release their prediction in late May.

[silver9991]

The verdict on hurricanes and a global warming connection is still open to speculation. And from what I see, it isn't over the number of them, or where they strike, but the severity of them when and where they do occur.

No one knows for sure yet, and scientists are simply investigating. Mostly without politics.

[rf35]

"But Gray disagrees with those who blame hurricane activity on human-induced global warming, Miller reports."
"I don't think people should read too much into all the hype on global warming and CO2," he said. "We think these are well within the natural range."

Regarding the hurricane activity, nothing else.

If you still want to disbelieve, note the term "human-induced global warming." He doesn't say the planet isn't getting warmer, just that it isn't unnatural. I'm still undecided on whether humans are contributing to GW or not. What I AM sure of is that humans have thrown the biosphere out of balance and there will be consequences. GW may or may not be one of them...the others will likely manifest in totally unpredicted and unexpected ways like the mysterious bee deaths going on in 24 states.

[pghlady3]

anopinion1-no matter where you live, ther is some disaster waiting to happen. NJ-NY-DC-Rhode Island Virginia-Maryland-oregon-are under sea level. If you live in the midwest, you have tornados and deep freezes. in the southwest, you go months without rain. This isn't their fault.

[wiccantexan]

Speaking of bull, didn't Algore invent hurricanes?
Posted by vbnvbn at 10:40 PM : Apr 03, 2007

No, no, he invented the Internet. And he's watching you right now....

[ralan40]

Thousands of years ago, North America was covered by glaciers. About 1200 years ago, The Anastazi grew corn and enjoyed milder wheather in SW US. Hundreds of years ago, Poeple in Jamestown VA are had trouble surviving the winter due to the cold. We've been undergoing Global warming since the ice age and yet even though the warming has been accuratly documented for the last 80 years, it is suddenly a political issue. Al Gore's "inconvenient Truth" is the fact that his Daddy fought the Civil rights movement with a record-breaking filibuster. Yet the Democrats are portrayed as the "Party for minorities".
My point being that if they can spin their image, they can "rewright history" to blame the current administration for the ending of the ice age.

[anopinion1]

Jesus.
I wonder if the people in new orleans will listen this time whey they are told to evacuate the damm city. Get on your peddle bike if needed just get the f-out.

Or here's a clue, don't live their in the first place. As with the idiots on the fault line in california.

[mdc76082]

You know if you say the same thing every year you're bound to hit it right once or twice. Being repetative every year is what will make these guys Gods amongst the Gore Global Warriors. Nobody will ever mention that their predictions were wrong 3/4's of the time. And then we'll have to hear, "Oh my God, it was because of Global Warming". Oh, Christ I can hear those Al Gore Global Warriors now. Cringe! I wonder what the odds spread in Vegas is on these guys & their predictions???

[garsong-2009]

Yawn. These guys are wrong EVERY YEAR.
Posted by xfredmenzies at 03:43 PM : Apr 03, 2007

I concur. Every fricking year they are wrong. Scare mongers is what I call them.

[hawksprings]

zorlacskates, I use religious terms to describe the Global Warming Religion because that's what it is: A Religion.

Human-caused Global Warming has not been proven, there's just a supposed consensus. Science isn't supposed to be about consensus, sciense is supposed to be about proving theories.

So Human-caused Global Warming is a religion, a belief in something that hasn't been proven.
It has a High-Priest: Algore.
It has sins: Driving an SUV and not changing to the correct light bulbs.
It has pennance: Buying so-called Carbon Credits.
It has attonement: Planting a tree or buying a Prius.
It has devils: Republicans and anyone who doesn't accept the dogma.
It has evangelists: The Media.
It preaches the end of the World.
It preaches salvation, found in Government, Higher Taxes, and more Government Regulation.

I could go on, but I think you get the point.

...

[bushfan3]

newsflash evelyn global warming is false.

[zorlacskates]

gray is a real scientist. it's difficult to reconcile his work with the scientific consensus right now because he isn't as easily dismissed as many anti-global warming folks with obvious credibility problems or massive conflicts of interest. so where is gray coming from? is he just pisssed about the politics? has he seen something nobody else has? is gw a big hoax and gray is the only scientist not in on it? i don't know, but he seems very much out of step with his peers and i'm wondering why. his use of the word "hype" and your insistence on calling gw a "theology" don't exactly build credibility.

[hawksprings]

zorlacskates, I understand the theology of Global Warming perfectly.
Anyone who dissagrees with The Consensus is a heretic, owned by Big Oil, not a "real" scientist, or a right-wing religious flat-earther.

You're the one bringing up his motivations, thus proving my point.

How's that for ignorantly simplifying the issue?

[zorlacskates]

way to ignorantly simplify the situation in a left v. right issue, hawksprings. he's a respected expert in his field, but there are legitimate questions about his motivations. first you guys want to skewer him because his forecasts have been wrong historically, but now his expertise effectively counters the expertise of a huge majority of his peers? gray's got credibility, but we're back to the same tired question: which experts do you want to believe and why?

[thomderr]

Hurricane Wilma destroyed my home in 2005. Not by wind, but by an electrical fire caused by unforseen damage to our utility pole.

I pray all that all of those that have been displaced by a hurricane never have to go through that terrible event again in their lifetime.

And I wish that everyone that turns this into "something political," such as they have in these comments, realise the torment a hurricane hit can be.

[hawksprings]

Ahhh, I knew it would only be a matter of time before this "Dr." Gray person was pilloried by the Leftists for daring to speak against the Church of Global Warming.

Thank you, all you Global Warming Sheep for revealing the truth about this Gray heretic!

I knew he couldn't be legit if he dissagreed with the Concensus.

[elgraz]

He is a pompous *** who was wrong last year and will always be wrong...........a big fricken head is his.
He should join the Bush administration if I may call it that................. laughingly.

[vastr-wcon]

These forecasts have little credibility. They're like predictions of the stock market, or ANY statements by BushCheney.

Instead of paying attention to these publicity seekers, one should spend their time more productively reading their horoscope.

[olebd]

Bet this has the oil people salivating. If the hurricanes hit in just the right spot, they can raise gas prices another .60 to $1.00. Thanks a lot doc!

[zorlacskates]

dr. gray is a very well-known voice against global-warming and he has been for a long time. under no circumstances would he ever concede that gw is a factor in anything, even if every other scientist on earth was convinced otherwise. he seems to be legit, though he does have a huge ax to grind with gore because much of his funding was cut in the 1990's. whether his funding went away due to politics or because he was doing work that seemed to disagree with what most credible scientists were doing, and was therefore dubious and a waste of taxdollars, is up to speculation. either way, be careful bushies, because gray is definitely one of you and you may want to hold your fire.

[hawksprings]

Shouldn't this "Dr." Gray, if he really is a doctor, shouldn't he be punished, or defrocked, or something for calling Global Warming and CO2 'hype'?

He can't be allowed to get away with this blasphemy against the Church of Global Warming!!