Rising Seas Could Affect 600M, Report Says

(AP)  More than two-thirds of the world's large cities are in areas vulnerable to global warming and rising sea levels, and millions of people are at risk of being swamped by flooding and intense storms, according to a new study released Wednesday.

In all, 634 million people live in the threatened coastal areas worldwide — defined as those lying at less than 33 feet above sea level — and the number is growing, said the study published in the journal Environment and Urbanization.

More than 180 countries have populations in low-elevation coastal zones, and about 70 percent of those have urban areas of more than 5 million people that are under threat. Among them: Tokyo; New York; Mumbai, India; Shanghai, China; Jakarta, Indonesia; and Dhaka, Bangladesh.

The peer-reviewed scientific study said it is the first to identify the world's low-lying coastal areas that are vulnerable to global warming and rising sea levels. It said 75 percent of all people living in vulnerable areas are in Asia, with poorer nations most at risk.

The study gives no time frame for rising sea levels or the potential flooding in individual countries. It warns, however, the solution to the problem will not be cheap and may involve relocating many people and building protective engineering structures. And, it adds, nations should consider halting or reducing population growth in coastal areas.

"Migration away from the zone at risk will be necessary but costly and hard to implement, so coastal settlements will also need to be modified to protect residents," said Gordon McGranahan of the International Institute for Environment and Development in London, a co-author of the study.

IIED publishes the journal Environment and Urbanization. The other two co-authors of the study are Deborah Balk of the City University of New York and Bridget Anderson of Columbia University.

Separately, the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in a draft copy of a report expected to be released next week that coastlines are already showing the impact of sea-level rise. The draft copy, which was obtained by The Associated Press, said about 100 million people each year could be flooded by rising seas by 2080.

The draft copy warned that two biggest cities in North America — Los Angeles and New York — are at risk of a combination of sea-level rise and violent storms. By 2090, under a worst-case scenario, megafloods that normally would hit North America once every 100 years "could occur as frequently as every 3-4 years," the draft said.

In February, the IPCC warned of sea-level rises of 7-23 inches by the end of the century due to global warming, making coastal populations vulnerable to flooding and more intense hurricanes and typhoons.

Asia is particularly vulnerable, the study said. The five nations with the largest total population living in endangered coastal areas are all in Asia: China, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia.

Between 1994 and 2004, about one-third of the world's 1,562 flood disasters occurred in Asia, with half of the total 120,000 people killed by floods living in that region, the study said. In addition, more than 200,000 people were killed by the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004.

"Migration away from lowest elevation coastal zones will be important, but can be costly and difficult to implement without causing severe disruptions," the study said. Still, it said, "relatively small shifts in settlement location, out of a coastal plain onto more elevated ground, can make a major difference."

That is especially true in China, a country with an export-oriented economy that has created special economic zones in coastal locations, such as Shanghai. Fast economic growth has been associated with very rapid coastward migration, with the population in low-lying areas growing at almost twice the national population growth rate between 1990 and 2000, the study said.

"Unless something is done, there is the possibility that, as well as the people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, China's economic success will be placed at risk," it said.

[pwrslm]

Al Gore is Chicken Little runnin about saying the sky is falling.

[onlyfacts]

Cjhr43,

I think that is the point of all the political banter. There has to be someone to blame. But I am afraid that the efforts will be put to use in the wrong areas.

My opinion: stop the real pollution, assist the developing nations where appropriate, and let the debate continue on why the globe is warming. If there is something that can be done to decrease global warming, then we can work on it. However, that also leaves open the possibility that nothing can be done and it might get warmer or cooler depending on many factors.

Sorry, no silver bullet. Carbon offset are another money making scheme that allows CO2 emitters to continue to emit. While I don%u2019t think CO2 is the culprit, someone is still making a lot of money off of everyone else%u2019s guilt.

[cjhr43]

ok... good explanation... where do we fit in the "big picture"? What part can we play to "balance" everything? What real effect does our "carbon footprint" have on our climate future?

[onlyfacts]

Actornaught,

People are angry because they let political affiliation cloud their judgment. Did you know that it was actually the right wing that initiated the CO2 causes global warming issue?

However, as stated below, CO2 has not been the cause of global temperature rising. In fact, high temperatures cause high levels of CO2.

CO2 levels increased exponentially after WWII, but the global temperature actually declined until 1975. Why?

The Vostok ice core samples show that CO2 levels lagged behind temperatures changes. When the temperature levels started to decline, CO2 levels still increased, peaked, and then started to fall. Why would temperatures decline if CO2 was causing the warming and still was on the rise?

During the Medieval Warm Period (1100AD) there were no activists calling for the reduction of CO2 levels, yet the temperature declined. Why?

During the Little Ice Age, again there were no activists calling for CO2 reduction, but the temperature still fell. 300 years ago, before the Industrial Revolution, the temperature still rose, and for the most part with the exception of the Little Ice Age, has continued to rise since. Why?

CO2 levels can not explain any of the above scenarios. The climate is one of the most complex transport mechanisms, one gas is not responsible for all changes.

[cjhr43]

I recently heard that its actually the animal "emissions" that are causing so-called "global warming". I have also heard that it is a natural occurance since the beginning of time... that is why we no longer have land bridges between continents. I am inclined to believe that Al Gore is the one with a fever, not the earth. No one has found him credible before now.What caused the "little ice age" a couple of centuries ago? Isn't the ozone layer only atmosphere with the oxygen burned out of it by the sun? What goes here? Isn't anyone out there able to come up with an explanation who won't stand to profit by it?

[actornaught]

wow, so many people dead certain that global warming is natural, and angry about it, too! (btw, weren't the same people previously saying there was NO global warming?...)

of course, if their 'experts' (Rush? Mark? Ann?) admitted that at best, nothing is certain, than they'd have to acknowledge it was reasonable to examine a way to correct it.

but why would they start being reasonable now? they're too busy making money by convincing people to be angry based on lame 'logic'.

[pghlady3]

Shame on you CBS. This is some 'fear factor' to scare people. People need to quit listning and start reading, and stop being brainwashed. yes, temps are rising, but this is the NORMAL CYCLE OF THE EARTH, this has been going on forever. Every 10 centuries or so, the earth warms up, but then it cools down. This is the normal cycle of the planet. You all need to read Alfred P Sloan, from MIT. The earths temps started to rise pre 1940's, the CO2 started on the rise post 1940's, which coinsides with the earths actual temps going DOWN.

[Syndicate]

This happened 12,000 years ago when the Ice age ended. Probably the source of the flood myths. It will actually affect everyone as land will become more scarce. Buy land its going to become very expensive As all the coastal areas move to higher ground. Also plann ahead and buy land that will be a future coast line. Then you can make millions selling to the resorts that have just lost their porperties. Does any one know what the max sea level will be? Assume all the ice everywhere is melted.

[onlyfacts]

Jairod,
That is a strawman arguement. Following suite, your rememedy to solve the situation would be like taking his shoe off and seeing if that stops the bleeding.

If A starts to rise, then later, B starts to rise. At some time later A peaks then falls then at a later time B peaks and falls. Is B a cause of A's differential?

If C starts to rise and immediately A starts to rise. At some time later C peaks then falls and immediately A peaks and falls. Is C a cause of A's differential?

A=Temperature
B=CO2
C=Sun activity

Does the shoe fit?

[jairod]

Onlyfacts:
Looks like you're the whipping boy. Look at it this way: You have a son that is bleeding badly and it is obvious that something has to be done to prevent him from bleeding to death. If you are not an expert, what do you do? Do you wait and see if in fact he will bleed to death? Do you call in and expert and then deny his opinion as valid? Do you call in your neighbor and ask fo a second opinion from another non-expert? Or, maybe you try some home remedies like getting a bandage. You find that hasn't stopped the bleeding so you get a bifgger bandage until it is so large that the bleeding cannot be seen. And, while you're doing all of that, what is happening to your son?