Hot-Headed Gore Needs To Cool Off

Weekly Standard: Gore's Exaggerations Hurt Science And His Cause

(Weekly Standard)  This column was written by Jonathan V. Last.

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The Post-Oscars attacks on Al Gore for living in a mansion that consumes 20 times as much energy as the average American house were enjoyable, but unfair. Gore's consumption of fossil fuels has nothing to do with the arguments he has been advancing about climate change. After all, his thesis is empirical, not subjective.

It doesn't matter a lick whether Al Gore is a hypocrite. What matters is whether or not he is right.

Gore proposes essentially four assertions, which build conditionally: (1) Earth's climate is getting warmer; (2) man is responsible in substantial part for this change; (3) this change will result in net harm; and (4) this change can be reversed by man. Let's take them in order.

Here is what we know for certain about climate change: In the last 100 years, the average temperature on Earth has risen 1 degree Fahrenheit. This is not unprecedented. Throughout history, the planet has gone through temperature cycles. There have been "warm periods" and ice ages. To take just one example, Swiss climatologists believe that the glaciers in the Alps have melted into near nothingness 10 times in the last 10,000 years.

As recently as the 1970s, global cooling was considered by many scientists to be a major imminent threat, with the book “The Weather Conspiracy: The Coming of the New Ice Age” doing the work of today's “An Inconvenient Truth.”

Given the history of fluctuations in temperatures, to what degree is man responsible for the current rise? That depends on whom you ask and when you ask them. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says it believes that human activity has been a primary driver.

But this verdict is not final: The IPCC recently explained that its initial work on climate change overestimated man's impact by as much as 25 percent. Who knows how it will change its estimates in the future.

Meanwhile, other scientists say they believe the sun is responsible. Researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Germany note that the sun has seemed to be burning more brightly for the last 60 years, which may account for the increase of 1 degree.

But as British scientist Nigel Calder notes, theories about climate change that don't finger man as the culprit are met with hostility or blank stares in the parts of the scientific community most heavily invested in Gore's theses, such as the IPCC.

Which brings us to the third part: If global warming is real, what would the net effect be? Gore says it would be very bad indeed. Taking his cue from the former vice president, the announcer of the Academy Awards telecast gushed that "Davis Guggenheim and the cast were scheduled to shoot in New Orleans the night before Hurricane Katrina hit, an event that brought home the threat — and the impact — of global warming." If global warming causes more storms like Katrina, that would be trouble.

But as a recent piece in Slate acknowledges, "the hurricane-warming link isn't settled at all. Rather, it's a very contentious debate between two groups of scientists — computer-modeling atmospheric scientists versus meteorologists."

Gore, however, goes further. In promoting the 2004 film “The Day After Tomorrow,” he told the press, "I hope this movie will provide many opportunities for in-depth conversations about what this issue is really all about." The movie depicted a series of super storms that cause a near apocalypse and bring about, in a matter of days, a new ice age.

Given this promiscuous doomsaying, it's no surprise that some scientists have begun to quietly complain about Gore. A number of them recently went on record with their complaints to the New York Times.

Kevin Vranes, a University of Colorado climatologist, worried that Gore had been "overselling our certainty about knowing the future."

Gore warns about a 20-foot rise in sea level; the IPCC panel estimates "that the world's seas in this century would rise a maximum of 23 inches — down from earlier estimates."

Ever apocalyptic, Gore says that "our civilization has never experienced any environmental shift remotely similar to this." But Don Easterbrook, a geology professor from Western Washington University, notes that within the last 15,000 years there have been shifts up to "20 times greater than the warming in the past century."

What's more, some broad historical evidence, such as that presented by Thomas Gale Moore in his book “Climate of Fear,” suggests that Earth's "warming periods" have been accompanied by advances in human civilization. As the saying goes, past performance is not an indication of future gains. But if the climate were to warm gradually, it's not obvious why man wouldn't adapt and flourish again, as we have in the past.

Of course, none of that matters if the final condition of the Gore hypothesis doesn't hold. Can man stop the changing of the climate?

Again, the science is conflicted. Gore certainly believes we can. Others are less certain. Climate-change alarmist Paul Hellyer, a former Canadian minister of defense, recently said he believed advanced technology from extraterrestrial civilizations offered the best hope to "save our planet" from the perils of climate change.

Art Bell and Whitley Strieber take a backseat to no one in their worries about climate change. They wrote the book “The Coming Global Superstorm,” on which “The Day After Tomorrow” was based, and they, too, fear it may be too late. Bell is host on a radio show about UFOs and the paranormal. Before hooking up with Bell, Strieber wrote five nonfiction books about having been abducted by aliens.

Nothing wrong with any of that, of course. We all have to believe in something.

But when you compound the probabilities, the claims of environmentalists such as Gore begin to look less and less certain. In fact, in their unwillingness to brook dissent or countervailing theories, they seem less like scientists and more like the fundamentalists they otherwise scorn.

[tiredofit13]

People, Global Warming is real. No doubt! However, IT IS NOT MAN MADE!!!!! There is way mor proof that this is a cycle. 50 to 100 years when it comes to the earth is nothing. Come on people. This is just a way for the UN and Al Gore to line there pockets and bring us closer to a world government. Al Gore gets no respect from me. IF he can't walk the talk, then he is just blowing it out his a$$. He is in the to make money that is it. Did you all know that he is the CEO of the company that is selling bogus "Carbon Offsets"?
This is natural, there is nothing you can do to stop it. Do not confuse, pollution and Global Warming two different things.

[knyghtwolf]

and if an astroid hits the earth in fifteen minutes from now, all arguments about Global Warming are for naught. Many people still worry about getting a direct hit from an astroid and thus dying as well but at a conference a few years ago about an astroid strike, and listening to all the experts there, I asked what would we do if an astroid hit the moon in a bank shot and sent it (the moon) heading towards earth? There was dead silence, no one had thought of that one possibility. So I guess its whatever can get you exposure and fifteen minutes of credibility that should be considered first & foremost.

[buctootim]

"In the Swiss Alps the climatologist's are finding evidence of total elimination of the glaciers there at least 10 times in the last 10,000 years".


Really? In that case it is remarkable that the 5,300 year old stone age man found in a glacier in the Alps had remained frozen. Or perhaps the glaciers never went away and you made it up.

[annd2302]

For something other than a "Hat Rack"

1.) Never say Never
2.) It's difficult d
3.) S

[evesapplepie]

This article cloaks itself in "science" as refutation? It does try to link Gore to those who are abducted by aliens. I like that. I just don't see how that contrubutes to the central point.

The main point is that Gore MAY not be right but he and his followers won't listen to any other evidence.

There was plenty of evidence that he MAY be wrong, but the article failed to offer even a single line of evidence that Gore won't listen if a counter arguement is made. There WAS little in the way of defining how difinitive or reputable the opinions were in offering counter arguments.

The internet. Lots of opinion. Rarely an article worth reading.

I don't care which side of the arguement you fall on, but if you wish to write as if you are debating a point....some effort should go to supporting the actual point.

[bigdadpatrio]

We're ALL going to drown when the water rises 20 fee....oh, I'm sorry, 23 INCHES.....(give me a snorkel.....)

[bigdadpatrio]

Global Warming is a right-wing conspiracy......

[wakeup11]

Did most of you who support Gore's presumption that man is causing global warming, even read the article? In the Swiss Alps the climatologist's are finding evidence of total elimination of the glaciers there at least 10 times in the last 10,000 years. There is also proof that the ice caps on Mars have experienced proportional melting similar to those on Earth. That evidence implicates the sun, which has periods of solar flaring, and probably causes periodic global heating/cooling. Please don't get hysterical. Study the facts. Then ask yourself, if there have been long term cycles of global heating and cooling, how did the ice-ages long ago become warm-ages, without significant impact by influences of the Industrial Age? Pollution is not to be confused with global warming. Air pollution is a separate issue. Funny that Gore and his life in the fast lane Hollywood friends create more air pollution in one cross-country flight in their personal jets than most of us create in a year.

[gileadrising]

Anyone that takes the time to actually go over the hard data will feel slightly ridiculous after having believed everything that the Apocalyptic C02 Global Warming believers have told us. If you consider yourself even semi intelligent then I suggest you at least investigate the other side of this "story".

I mean seriously guys, look up at that huge mass of burning gases that is so prevalent in our sky, you know the SUN. Is it so crazy to believe that maybe, just maybe the sun has something if not everything to do with global warming?

[raresblaga]

hmmm... it's so sad to see what's happening here, WE ARE HUNGRY ANIMALS!!!!!... we are destroying our planet and nobody gives a S**T. How can you be so indiferent? I don't really care if Gore is trying to make a name..or whatever, the truth is that we are changing the climate and as we all see... the true power of nature... don't you people understand? that pretty soon you will not drive your fancy little convertible cars and drink your *** machiatt's at the corner of the street... how would you feel if your newborn kid ...will not live to see a FOREST? freaking greedy idiots... you all want money... and you don't care about anything else....

[blahblahbla5]

"Ever apocalyptic, Gore says that 'our civilization has never experienced any environmental shift remotely similar to this.' But Don Easterbrook, a geology professor from Western Washington University, notes that within the last 15,000 years there have been shifts up to '20 times greater than the warming in the past century.'"

I don't think "our civilization" goes back 15,000 years -- do you?

[ws011]

Look around at all of the material items, supplies and services that you use every day, your dwelling(s), the amount of traveling that you do, the food you that you eat (how far did it travel to get to your plate and how was it grown?) and you will see that all of us are "polluters" to some extent, directly or indirectly. Even if one is concerned about the possibility of global warming, it's hard to be enthusiastic about the idea of trading one's car for a bus-pass, bike or walking shoes when one hears about limousine liberals who don't follow their own advice and won't make the same kinds of sacrifices they expect of others.

[katg21]

Al Gore speaks with integrity and the bulk of scientific authority behind him. Personal attacks are a frenzied effort to distract attention away from the issue so that the polluters can keep on fouling our air without any controls.
Posted by sesanders1 at 01:01 PM : Mar 25, 2007

Yeah, okay. Al Gore also stands to make a large fortune on top of his already large fortune if you continue to buy his ***. Carbon credits...come on!!! I would almost believe him if I didn't hear about the carbon credits, what a crock.

[elz523]

Ever apocalyptic, Gore says that "our civilization has never experienced any environmental shift remotely similar to this." But Don Easterbrook, a geology professor from Western Washington University, notes that within the last 15,000 years there have been shifts up to "20 times greater than the warming in the past century."


Gore is right. HELLO! Going back 15000 years, I would have to say the civilizations that faced prior warmings are not the same as ours today. This piece, like everything else coming from the right wing today on climate change,is totally disingenuous and written by a fool for the consumption of fools (other conservatives).

[scott4261]

...How can anyone convince himself that belching vast amounts of soot into the atmosphere doesn't effect the climate?
Posted by sesanders1 at 01:01 PM
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Common sense, isn't it?

[darkmoon2005]

What amazes is that people incapable of extracting a square root feel competant to judge the merits of the work of climatologists around the world. Global climate change is as real as gravity. Making it political doesn't change that. Unfortunately, our grandchildren will boil in the ignorance of those who can't see beyond the end of their nose.

I am so disgusted with lunatic right-wing attacks on the science of global warming. How can anyone convince himself that belching vast amounts of soot into the atmosphere doesn't effect the climate? It flies in face of common sense even if the scientific data hadn't been collected...besides climate change is not the only concern here; there is the problem with unhealthy air pollution creating health problems.
Al Gore speaks with integrity and the bulk of scientific authority behind him. Personal attacks are a frenzied effort to distract attention away from the issue so that the polluters can keep on fouling our air without any controls.

[ws011]

Ainttaken, unless we actually CEASE using fossil fuels, the amount of atmospheric CO2 will, theoretically, continue to increase. Otherwise it's really just a matter of whether any catastrophic effects happen this century or a few centuries from now. The immediate benefits of burning fossil fuel seem to outweigh any real, hypothetical, imagined or future drawbacks, so don't blame the oil companies; they are just providing something that is in demand by others, including you. For instance, the computer you are using was built, shipped and is probably powered using fossil fuel, but I'm sure you could give us examples of other things you have now that you would be willing to do without in order to save the environment.

[hawksprings]

bmadeline posted:
"You Idiots! Why don't you neocons shut up because every word you speak is an evil lie!"

As a neocon, I just want to say: bmadeline, you are such a nice, balanced, honest, reasonable person.

[katg21]

More doom and gloom... we're all going to die people! Now go buy some carbon credits if it'll make you feel better. Or, why don't you stop worshipping at the feet of Al Gore and get a real religion, go back to church.