June 10, 2009 10:27 AM
- Text
Hagel Caters To Narrow Niche
Senate Foreign Relations Committee member, Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb. takes part in a hearing on Iraq before the committee, Thursday, Jan. 11, 2007 on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Dennis Cook) (AP Photo/Dennis Cook)
(The Politico)
By The Politico's Jonathan Martin.
If Sen. Chuck Hagel launches his presidential campaign on Monday, his candidacy will test whether an anti-war — and sometimes defiantly anti-Bush — contender has a viable constituency in the Republican Party.
A bid by the Nebraska Republican would further jolt an unsettled Republican presidential field and a GOP already under siege in the wake of President Bush's unpopular troop surge plan and a steady drumbeat of other bad news for the administration.
Some analysts say Hagel, who will announce his intentions in Omaha, faces an impossible task in courting the party's conservative base considering his own vociferous opposition to the war in Iraq. Given that, they say, his best course may be to run as an independent.
But at least one political consultant believes that Hagel's anti-war stance could attract moderate suburban GOP voters who have become increasingly disillusioned with the war.
That and Hagel's feisty and ubiquitous TV presence — the talk show bookers love him — may make him a threat to his own party, someone who, if nothing else, will force a change in the conversation about the war in Iraq.
Early on, though, Hagel's biggest challenge lies in convincing the party's pro-Bush activists to support him.
"I don't know what constituency he'd be looking for," said Chuck Laudner, executive director of the Iowa Republican Party. "To be the anti-war Republican? Good luck to you, sir."
Laudner, who is not affiliated with any candidate, said few likely Republican caucus-goers in his first-in-the-nation contest would respond to an anti-war candidate. Like many Republicans, he predicts a nightmare scenario should American troops withdraw from Iraq.
"If we pull back to the horizon, guess what becomes the frontline of the war on terror? The horizon," Laudner answered. "I'd rather have the fight in downtown Baghdad than in downtown New York City."
So far, all of the Republican candidates have delicately maneuvered around President Bush. They recognize his low standing in the polls and have grimaced through a succession of recent body blows to the administration that do yet more damage to the GOP brand.
Those include The Washington Post's revelations, and subsequent congressional hearings, on abysmal conditions at Walter Reed Army Medical Center; the firings of eight U.S. attorneys, allegedly for political reasons; the conviction of I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, former chief of staff to Vice President Dick Cheney; and the news that the FBI had overstepped its authority under the Patriot Act to investigate citizens.
But the GOP base that the candidates must court remains loyal to its commander in chief, in part because to oppose the president would put these activists in league with the Democrats and liberals they so loathe.
"Being critical of the president is one thing for a Republican primary voter," notes Dante Scala, a political science professor at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire, "but poking him with a sharp stick at every opportunity is something else."
That is essentially what Hagel has done by excoriating the administration's prosecution of the war. He called for the start of a troop draw-down last November, writing in a Washington Post op-ed that "There will be no victory or defeat for the United States in Iraq."
With President Bush announcing plans to send in 21,000 additional troops, Hagel has grown more outspoken. He predicted in January that the surge would be "the most dangerous foreign policy blunder in this country since Vietnam."
If Sen. Chuck Hagel launches his presidential campaign on Monday, his candidacy will test whether an anti-war — and sometimes defiantly anti-Bush — contender has a viable constituency in the Republican Party.
A bid by the Nebraska Republican would further jolt an unsettled Republican presidential field and a GOP already under siege in the wake of President Bush's unpopular troop surge plan and a steady drumbeat of other bad news for the administration.
Some analysts say Hagel, who will announce his intentions in Omaha, faces an impossible task in courting the party's conservative base considering his own vociferous opposition to the war in Iraq. Given that, they say, his best course may be to run as an independent.
But at least one political consultant believes that Hagel's anti-war stance could attract moderate suburban GOP voters who have become increasingly disillusioned with the war.
That and Hagel's feisty and ubiquitous TV presence — the talk show bookers love him — may make him a threat to his own party, someone who, if nothing else, will force a change in the conversation about the war in Iraq.
Early on, though, Hagel's biggest challenge lies in convincing the party's pro-Bush activists to support him.
"I don't know what constituency he'd be looking for," said Chuck Laudner, executive director of the Iowa Republican Party. "To be the anti-war Republican? Good luck to you, sir."
Laudner, who is not affiliated with any candidate, said few likely Republican caucus-goers in his first-in-the-nation contest would respond to an anti-war candidate. Like many Republicans, he predicts a nightmare scenario should American troops withdraw from Iraq.
"If we pull back to the horizon, guess what becomes the frontline of the war on terror? The horizon," Laudner answered. "I'd rather have the fight in downtown Baghdad than in downtown New York City."
So far, all of the Republican candidates have delicately maneuvered around President Bush. They recognize his low standing in the polls and have grimaced through a succession of recent body blows to the administration that do yet more damage to the GOP brand.
Those include The Washington Post's revelations, and subsequent congressional hearings, on abysmal conditions at Walter Reed Army Medical Center; the firings of eight U.S. attorneys, allegedly for political reasons; the conviction of I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, former chief of staff to Vice President Dick Cheney; and the news that the FBI had overstepped its authority under the Patriot Act to investigate citizens.
But the GOP base that the candidates must court remains loyal to its commander in chief, in part because to oppose the president would put these activists in league with the Democrats and liberals they so loathe.
"Being critical of the president is one thing for a Republican primary voter," notes Dante Scala, a political science professor at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire, "but poking him with a sharp stick at every opportunity is something else."
That is essentially what Hagel has done by excoriating the administration's prosecution of the war. He called for the start of a troop draw-down last November, writing in a Washington Post op-ed that "There will be no victory or defeat for the United States in Iraq."
With President Bush announcing plans to send in 21,000 additional troops, Hagel has grown more outspoken. He predicted in January that the surge would be "the most dangerous foreign policy blunder in this country since Vietnam."
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