Poll: Parties Differ On 2008 Prospects

People react in front of the destroyed BBG industrial moldings building in Mirandola, northern Italy, Tuesday, May 29, 2012. A magnitude 5.8 earthquake struck the same area of northern Italy stricken by another fatal tremor on May 20. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno) / Luca Bruno

If a new survey of registered voters is correct, a Democrat will win the 2008 presidential election, according to new CBS News/New York Times polls.

With more than 19 months to go before the 2008 election, Democratic voters are optimistic about their prospects — they like their candidates and they think their party will win the presidency in 2008. Not so for Republicans. Although there are many announced and yet-to-announce likely candidates for the Republican Party's nomination for president, GOP voters aren't happy: A majority — 57 percent — says they wish there were more choices. A significant number don't think their party will win in 2008.

Historically, Democrats have been skeptical of candidates for their party's nomination. In this cycle, at least for now, most Democratic primary voters are satisfied. Fifty-seven percent say they are satisfied with the candidates running for the Democratic nomination, while 39 percent want more choices. In August 2003, opinion was reversed and during the 1992 primary campaign, Democratic voters also were not satisfied.

Feeling About Democratic Primary Field
(Among Democratic Primary Voters)

Now
Satisfied
57 percent
Want more choices
39 percent

August 2003
Satisfied
33 percent
Want more choices
57 percent

October 1991
Satisfied
18 percent
Want more choices
64 percent

All of the major Democratic candidates get positive assessments from Democratic primary voters. There have been small changes in the assessments of Hillary Clinton and John Edwards since January, with a few more Democratic primary voters expressing negative views of those candidates. Meanwhile, positive assessments of Barack Obama have soared, especially among blacks.

In January, more blacks had a favorable view of Clinton than had a favorable view of Obama. Now the ratings among black Democratic voters are the same — two-thirds are favorable, and almost no black Democrats have unfavorable views or Clinton or Obama.

Rating The Democratic Candidates
(Among Democratic Primary Voters)

Hillary Rodham Clinton
Favorable
59 percent
Not favorable
17 percent

Barack Obama
Favorable
54 percent
Not favorable
9 percent

John Edwards
Favorable
44 percent
Not favorable
14 percent

Although there are many announced and yet-to-announce likely candidates for the Republican Party's nomination for president ion 2008, Republican voters aren't happy yet: A majority — 57 percent— wishes there were more choices. A significant number don't think the party's candidate will win in 2008.

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Read the complete results of the CBS News/New York Times poll on Republicans
Read the complete results of the CBS News/New York Times poll on Democrats

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And when Republicans today look at their own party, they see divisions within its ranks. Most say their party has drifted from the principles of Ronald Reagan: Seven in 10 say the GOP has gone off on a different path. They do unite on many issues, however — and on their clear dislike of Bill and Hillary Clinton.

The lack of satisfaction with the current set of candidates is a change from past presidential elections. Republican primary voters were more satisfied with their primary candidates in 1996 and 1992.

Are You Satisfied With The Candidates Running For The Republican Nomination?
(Among Republican Primary Voters)

Now
Satisfied
40 percent
Want more choices
57 percent

March 1996
Satisfied
50 percent
Want more choices
46 percent

February 1992
Satisfied
59 percent
Want more choices
35 percent

Conservative primary voters are more likely to want more choices than moderates, and 62 percent of white evangelical primary voters also say they want more choices.

Historically, Republicans have been more satisfied with their candidates than Democrats. But that's not true this year. A majority of Democratic primary voters say they are satisfied with their options for the nomination.

Moreover, six in 10 voters nationwide expect a Democrat will win the presidential election in 2008. Half of Republican primary voters expect a Republican will win in 2008, but more than a third think a Democrat will win. Democratic primary voters are much more confident a candidate from their party will win.

Whom Do You Expect To Win The Presidential Election?
(Among Registered Voters)

All Voters
A Republican
26 percent
A Democrat
61 percent

Republican Primary Voters
A Republican
50 percent
A Democrat
36 percent

Democratic Primary Voters
A Republican
8 percent
A Democrat
84 percent

Some of this is affected by views of the GOP candidates: Republicans who are satisfied with the choice of candidates running for their party's presidential nomination are more likely to be optimistic that the party will hold the White House.

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For detailed information on how CBS News conducts public opinion surveys, click here.

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,362 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone March 7-11, 2007. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher.

[cdnunn]

It's time America elected a non-politician to be our president. Maybe a liberal-minded CEO of a large corporation, someone with business smarts and compassion towards those who are poor and uneducated. Maybe an intellectual, a scholar with new approaches to foreign and domestic policies, someone who uses his brain instead of his animal instincts, like politicians do. I'm sick to death of all politicians and their insincere double-talk.

[magoomba2]

There are NO untainted republicans. Only Ron Paul, rep from Texas, is clean. He is a cantidate, but it is unimaginable that the pigs of the GOP will support him. He will bring them down.
The dems will win easily, but this is not very comforting either, because most of their established are tainted too. Jim Webb, new senator from Virginia, is their best man, but will not run unless drafted at the convention, also unlikely. Obama is the best choice of the frontrunners now, and altho somewhat weak, he could be expected to run a clean White House, seek out a more proper cabinet, and not engage in criminal activities.
It will take a president of FDR's stature to get this country back on it's feet. Such a cantidate is not visible on the horizon yet. In this interim, the GOP should be widely swept out of office for at least the next 12 years (oh the stench!), and the dems should become a revolving door.
If the dems govern too anally, a new 3rd party should arise uniting both Libertarian and socialist principles (huh? Yup!) intelligently to address the issues, or actually the crisis of keeping America FREE.
Also, I think the 2 term limit for the presidency should be repealed.

[scott4261]

boomer, you are right on target! And Edward R. Murrow is SPINNING by now!

[boomer1947]

If the media can refrain from a beauty and/or personality contest we may accidentally get a candidate that is capable of growing instead of regressing in office. That means taking your fourth estate responsibilities seriously and asking hard questions based on issues not the feature news milk-fed kitsch that passes for local and national news. Edward R. Murrow is turning over in his grave. Dont give us another George III.

[atxpatriot]

RON PAUL FOR PRESIDENT

He is going to surprise a lot of people. The man is not a politician, he is a statesman. Please research him.

www.ronpaul2008.gov
www.house.gov/paul/

[dittohead21]

There is a saying in Texas that "even a blind pig finds an acorn now and then". For once the liberal NYT/CBS folks got one right. The current Republican candidates are not very good. We would be much happier with a real conservative. On the other hand, even the blind pig mentioned above looks pretty good compared to Hillary and her fellow leftist clowns.

[clestes-2009]

guywesley what the hell are you talking about?? Support Bush?? What for?? So he can continue the downward spiral??

I guess you don't think Iraq is in a downward spiral.

After the COMPLETE DISASTER Iraq has become, the enormous IOU to China he has sign, the ignoring the healthcare of wounded troops, the joke of Katrina rebuilding (I could continue) after all this, you think we need to support Bush, you need to have your head examined!!

[scott4261]

If you righties think either Fred Thompson or Rudy Giuliani is going to save the Republican Party, you need your heads examined. Ain't gonna happen. The next president will be a Democrat. Count on it (and those of you who have Halliburton stock, I'd cash it in before the election!)!

[newsjeff-2009]

I have a message for Democrats and Republicans. There is lots of Democrat Governors and some GOP Governors that should not be overlooked as potential 2008 presidental canidates. I believe that after reading the approval ratings of Bill Richardson,Sonny Perdue,Haley Barbour,Brad Henry,Brian Switzer,and several other U.S. governors I believe there is lots of governors who would make great canidates for 2008. Yes I know I listed some GOP governors as well, but this proves that even a moderate Democrat like myself can be bi-partisan and open minded. Shoot I have been impressed with GOP governor Arnold of California even though he can't technically run for president due to a constitutional amendment, but Arnold is one of the highest rated governors in the U.S. in approval ratings. Democrat Governors and some GOP govenors have shown that in the past few years they have created jobs in their states,put people back to work,improved education,passed tougher crime laws,etc. These are the kind of people we need in Washington D.C. to lead this country in the future.

[thrillham]

Republicans love Israel more than their own country.