What Makes Rudy Run?

Gloria Borger: It's Very Early, But So Far Giuliani's Gamble Is Working

(U.S. News & World Report)  This news analysis was written by CBS News correspondent and U.S. News & World Report columnist Gloria Borger.

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I know — it's early. The public hasn't really focused on the presidential race yet. It's all a bunch of background noise. Except when it's not. And there is something happening in the Republican Party these days that goes beyond the usual rat-a-tat-tat of early campaigns and polls, because it's so mind-boggling: Rudy Giuliani is surging.

The pro-abortion rights, pro-gun control, pro-gay rights, thrice-married former New York mayor — who as part of a spoof once dressed in drag and got cozy with Donald Trump — is ahead. Not just in one poll — in almost every poll. And not just because he's a well-known name; GOP voters specifically rate him above the rest of the field as a leader, both inspirational and electable. In one recent poll, the putative front-runner, John McCain, beat him on just a single quality: experience — for whatever that's worth these days.

So are GOP voters just remembering the moment on 9/11 when Rudy took charge? Or can it be that they might actually embrace a candidate whose positions on social issues are nothing less than a heresy to the party's right flank? Just months ago, that seemed like a nutty idea, particularly with the once-maverick McCain going Establishment. But the inevitability of McCain took a hit with Iraq — and his support for the president's plan for a troop surge. No matter how much McCain says the war was botched — and he says it all the time now — he's still Bush's guy on adding more troops. And that's a problem.

Enter Rudy. His bid is a huge gamble with a simple premise: that, in the end, the appeal of his personality, leadership cred, and the new primary schedule (which could be full of big states with large urban areas that include lots of moderate Republicans), will give a city boy a chance to win the nomination. From the minute Giuliani announced his intention to announce (that's how they do it these days), he's been in the top tier. But guess who isn't? "Not one of the leading candidates is a conservative," says William Bennett, a conservative who hosts a radio talk show. The best horse conservatives have is Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas — smart, but not exactly a household name.

Cultural conservatives are, to put it mildly, miffed about "Rudy McRomney." While McCain has spent years burnishing his conservative credentials — and has a clear anti-abortion voting record — the purists still consider him suspect. (After all, he supports embryonic stem cell research.) And Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor positioning himself as the conservative alternative to McCain, has a few credibility problems, starting with this: He was for abortion rights just two years ago, before a sudden (pre-convention?) conversion. For Republicans, who like their primaries orderly, it's all just so unsettling. To calm them down, the Giuliani crowd likes to say its guy is just like Bush, only articulate. "Republicans still believe Bush is right on the principles," says a Giuliani backer. "They just wish he could say it — and do it — better." That's obviously the strong suit for the mayor who captivated the nation on 9/11. "If your complaint is that Bush hasn't gotten results in the war on terror, you should be with Rudy," says an adviser. Rudy gets results! Sound like a slogan?

Guns And Gays

But is that enough to push aside the GOP social agenda? Not if you're a cultural conservative like Tony Perkins, who runs the Family Research Council. He says that once GOP voters figure out where Giuliani stands on the issues, they'll dump him. And if they don't, he warns, "an unenthusiastic Republican base will suppress turnout and set up a Democratic victory." But what if Giuliani finds a way to finesse his liberal past by, say, promising to appoint conservative judges, as he did recently on the stump? "I would want judges who are strict constructionists because I am," he said. As for his support for gay civil rights, an adviser says, "since when are voters not open to tolerance?" And when it comes to guns, he adds, Giuliani had a city in crisis, got the guns off the streets and reduced crime. And, in a pitch to conservatives last week, Giuliani himself called Ronald Reagan his "hero."

Will all of this work? It's unknowable. But here's what we do know: In 1999, George Bush was the only Republican candidate who could raise about $70 million to get elected. Now each man in the top tier can raise that, and more. That means they can last until they kill each other off. So get ready for stories about Giuliani's marriages, McCain's temper and Romney's Mormonism: It'll be a food fight.

Then suddenly, Newt Gingrich will appear.

[dallison7]

Who cares?

The man is a walking snowball. He will never get past the first debate, and it doesn't matter anyway, democrats will win in an historic landslide. The country has had enough of the republicans.

[scott4261]

First of all, Rudy Guiliani was the unpopular mayor of New York on 09/10/2001. He didn't morph into "America's Mayor" until 09/11/2001. The real heroes are the emergency workers who put their lives on the line on 9/11 and the aftermath.

The GOP is so desperate for a hero to rescue their floundering party that many are willing to nominate this guy. I say good riddance! He's got rotten character and finally the rest of the world is beginning to see what a scumbag he really is.

And believe me, I DO take great pleasure in saying that you can bank on a Democratic landslide in 2008! I cannot wait to take my country back!

[doctordonut-2009]

Giuliani's ONLY chance if if he chooses this man as his running mate:

http://www.theweeklydonut.org/index.php/category/rudolph-giuliani/

[agnim]

"What Makes Rudy Run?"

Maybe he feels the 'family' needs a 'godfather' in the highest level of government. LOL

He as already alienated even his children; so he's just running to make the race interesting.

[nyckate]

Bush's Administration and campaigns have shown over and over that the 'people' will buy any kind of rehetoric that's fed to them - it doesn't need to be true and in fact is NOT true - but the "true believers" of the Religious Right are so scared and frightened that they NEED to believe that thugs like Bush and Rudy can 'save' them ....

Rudy is all hype and no substance - he's a bully who like Bush can only have 'yes' men around him.

It's almost funny to watch the so-called Religious Right lining up with Rudy - is it that they actually want someone with no ethics, morals or values? Sure enough looks like it.

[bill1fj]

I don't believe Rudy can win unless he comes up with some plans that will satisfy a lot of voters. Not just conservative or liberal, but the tens of millions of us that are somewhere in the middle.
We want the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan ended one way or the other. Either win or get out. No more politics getting in the way of winning.
We want the millions of illegal aliens out of the country, and any company or person that hires them fines. Put the folks in jail to work in some of those jobs and use the money to lessen the amount that taxpayers pay.
We want a health care plan for all citizens that matches what congress has given themselves.
We want affordable education for all citizens, and we want it to be relevant and the best on earth.
Whoever comes up with something like this would win in a real landslide.
I hope theres someone out there.
Thank You

[randalds]

What Makes Rudy Run?

Blind hope. The church mice who have the republican party by the balls will never let him through the primaries. His chances of getting the nomination are somewhere between no and hell no!

[joanpz]

What makes Guiliani run - EGOMANIA!

[hawksprings]

Gosh you guys are so mean!
Why is Rudy running? Isn't it part of the American Dream to want to be President someday? When we were kids, weren't all of us told, "Maybe someday you'll be President!"

What's wrong with THAT for a reason? A childhood dream.

[joanpz]

Nope, as a young girl - no one mentioned my becoming the 1st Woman President...a-ha!
Think Hillary has more of a chance today because of the errors of the "white male" want-to-be Presidents! Thanks to GW Bush - MALES WON'T HAVE A CHANCE IN 2008!

[jerr11]

What Makes Rudy Run?

To get more babes perhaps?

[dirtydog55]

I kinda hope Guiliani gets the Rep nomination. I think he'll be the easy one for any of the top 3 Dems to beat.

On the other hand, this guy can't manage his family and his own personal life; how's he going to manage the presidency?

[dirtydog55]

bill1fj:

I think you said it very well for a lot of us...

[scott4261]

bill1fj,

I agree with all you said except for the following paragraph:

"We want the millions of illegal aliens out of the country, and any company or person that hires them fines. Put the folks in jail to work in some of those jobs and use the money to lessen the amount that taxpayers pay."

Now let me clarify my position: I agree that the employers who hire illegal aliens should be fined. That HAS to be the number one priority, because that is the only way that they WILL leave the U.S.
- teaht is the only way that the millions of illegals will leave and we must do that. To try to round them up or to build a fence will never effectively work. The fines on employers HAS to be the means to do that. No jobs, no illegals.

But the real problem I have is with the second sentence: "Put the folks in jail to work in some of those jobs and use the money to lessen the amount that taxpayers pay."

No. The employers should pay a LIVING WAGE and hire American citizens to work those jobs. Period.

Ohterwise, I'm in total agreement. And having said that, the Democrats are much more likely to be working for the items on your list than are the Republicans.

[navychief8]

bill1fj ,

Nice post. I think you said it quite well.