Intel Report: Iraq Challenges "Daunting"

NIE: Inadequate Iraqi Forces, Sectarian Fighting Makes Situation Tough To Improve

(CBS/AP) 
The Office of the National Intelligence Director made public a nine-page summary of a much longer classified document entitled "Prospects for Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead." President Bush was briefed on its conclusions on Thursday.

Knowing that some findings were likely to become public, intelligence analysts stepped gingerly in the unclassified portion around one of the most politically charged questions of the Iraq debate: Is the country in the midst of a civil war?

They found that the term "civil war" doesn't entirely capture the complex situation in Iraq, which in addition to Shiites fighting Sunnis includes attacks on U.S. and coalition forces and struggles within sects, such as Shiites.

Yet, the public document said, the term "civil war" does accurately reflect key elements of the problem. That includes the hardening of sectarian identities, "a sea change in the character of the violence," and the displacement of key segments of the population to other countries.

The completed estimate comes as Congress is considering resolutions on Bush's troop-increase decision, which faces opposition from both Democrats and Republicans.

"I do not see anything so far in the report that suggests the president's new plan is a winning strategy that protects America's national interest," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.

Even some Republicans saw the estimate's release as a moment for criticism.

"The NIE makes clear that we cannot continue the same stubborn strategy that has brought us to this point in Iraq," said Michigan Rep. Peter Hoekstra, the top Republican on the House Intelligence Committee. "It also makes clear that we cannot just pull our forces out as if that decision can be made in a vacuum and without consequence."

The estimate painted a picture of a country literally hanging in the balance.

It warned that leaving the current violence unchecked could invite the open intervention of neighboring countries, such as Turkey and those with Sunni regimes — essentially the wider sectarian war that is many analysts' worst fear for the region's immediate future.

Iran is making the violence worse by smuggling in advanced explosive devices, but the report makes clear Iran is not what's wrong with Iraq, reports Martin.

“You can eliminate Iran’s influence from Iraq entirely and you still would not fix the problems of Iraq,” says Pollard.

The estimate also warned of the grave consequences of other possible developments, such as sustained mass killings, the assassination of a religious or political leader or a complete Sunni defection from a government in Baghdad that they already deeply distrust and are often unwilling to accept.

These events "have the potential to convulse severely" the situation in Iraq, the analysts found.

Administration officials portrayed the findings as support for the new strategy Bush announced last month, which included the troop increase, because it said that coalition forces are an essential stabilizing element in Iraq.

If U.S. troops were to leave, the report said, "we judge that this almost certainly would lead to a significant increase in the scale and scope of sectarian conflict in Iraq." It would also intensify Sunni resistance to the Iraqi government and hamper reconciliation efforts, the report found.

Hadley said the intelligence contained in the report had been available to Bush as he crafted the revamped war plan.

"The policy was designed to deal with the challenges that are reflected in this intelligence," he said. "It does suggest that we can succeed with the right policies and we think we have developed the right policy."

Indeed, the estimate said some positive developments could — analysts stressed "could" — help reverse negative trends. They include broader acceptance of the Sunni minority of the central government and concessions on the part of Shiites and Kurds to make more room for Sunni participation.

But the outlook for such progress was grim. Long persecuted by governing Sunnis, majority Shiites now in power are unwilling to engage Sunnis. The Sunnis, meanwhile, view the central government as incompetent and do not want to accept their minority status. And Kurds are provoking Arab groups by moving to increase their control of Kirkuk.

The 12 to 15 high-level estimates that it produces annually contain the best thinking from the nation's 16 spy agencies. But these typically classified reports have been leaked recently, to the consternation of administration officials.

[skyk-2009]

We are asking an INCOMPETENT member of the Religous Reich to lead us out of a mess the likes of which we have never seen before. We are doing this INSPITE of the Will of the American People and a few want to still call this nation free. Now THAT is STUPID!

[skyk-2009]

Satan causes the lies and deceipt in this world, not GOD, NOT JESUS CHRIST. With this being said, when you accept Christ into your life Satan can no longer corrupt you with his lies, no matter how hard he tries. I can show you written proof of this from the constant insulting and cursing I have endured on here simply for proclaiming my faith in Jesus Christ.
Posted by singinrick at 12:12 AM : Feb 03, 2007

How can you PUKES claim to be "Christian's" and LIE like this. YOU you pathetic member of the most EVIL group to EVER set foot on this planet, you bring insults and curses ONLY when YOU attempt to force YOUR beliefs upon the rest of us! No nation on this Planet has MORE Religious freedom than you losers do but that's not enough. You feel it to be YOUR responsibility to READ the Bible and not only decide what it means to YOUR Slimy Butt. YOU want to decide what it means to ME and all other American's. That despite the RECORD of the Religious Reich, something you sleaze bags NEVER want to discuss. Why is that I wonder?

[davey214]

Also, even though you might disagree with GB on Iraq right now, you need to see the bigger picture. The US (GB specifically) gave his word to many in that area that we would see this thru to victory. If the US abandons them now they would all be slaughtered - those who trusted the US. Not too good for world opinion, but even worse for one's conscience. The Americam public (and the politically opportunistic Democrats) are now giving GB a fair and honest exit strategy - he's giving it his best, last try before bringing the troops home and telling the Iraqis we did our best but the problem was all YOUR fault. The Republicans know what they need to do before November 08.

[davey214]

Many people worry about a civil war in Iraq, but it seems to me that having one's enemies fighting each other is a blessing. America, put your money into 100% energy independence ASAP and make the middle east irrelavent. The business of America is business - wasnt that the wisdom of the first George. The Republicans will eventually come to this view - they are slow to get the truth (as opposed to the other side of the aisle, who never get it).

[radiob-2009]

bildooreilly
tried the links, they didn't work.

[exusmcsgt]

This is a war initiated by those who cannot see and fought by those who can.
Posted by heetseeker at 06:00 AM : Feb 03, 2007

To paraphrase you, heetseeker, I would say that this war was initiated by those who wouldn't fight and is fought by those who will.

[heetseeker]

"Liberals D*** Liberals"

What is the National Intelligence Estimate? Is it not the informed and critically evaluated judgment of the US Intelligence Community and the most authoritative assessment of the Director of National Intelligence? Nonsense! It is the informed view of traitors! They clearly do not back the President's "New Way Forward" nor our troops in harms way.

The commentary above is my take on the default position of anyone who challenges the administration's rosy view of all things Iraq. If you disagree you are a liberal. If you are a liberal then you are unpatriotic. If you are unpatriotic, you are emboldening the enemy. If you are emboldening the enemy then you are a traitor. Why should we listen traitors?

The problem is these "traitors" are popping up everywhere. They are Generals in the military,
Republicans in the Senate & Congress and high-ranking officials in our intelligence community. Could it possibly be that these people are right and the administration is wrong?

Statements of protest: "you are emboldening the enemy", statements of hope: "the insurgency is in its last throes" and statements of pretence: "we are winning in Iraq" are not policies. Rather they are statements of denial. Iraq has now become a monument to arrongance, an entalglement from which we cannot easily extricate ourselves. It is profligacy with blood and treasure on a grand scale.

This is a war initiated by those who cannot see and fought by those who can.

[staff2--2008]

TIME TO PUT OUR PRESIDENT ON TRIAL FOR WAR CRIMES...

[johnshaft4]

Is the Kenneth Pollard referenced in the above quote any relation to great 'American' Zionist Mossad 'Hero' Jonathen Pollard? You know, cut out of the same Israeli Likud Party war propaganders/liars William Kristol's and convicted liar Michael 'the yellow cake/yellow belly' Ledeen? These 'great Americans' along with Wolfowitz, Wurmser, Feith, Abrams, Daniel 'the pig' Pipes, Perle, willsoon have their smiling faces is the Jew Hall of Deceit/Espionage along with fellow great Jew/Zionist 'Americans' Ethel and Julios Rosenberg. See 'traitors' A Bomb Russia... Screw Israel and you what to the Jews...

[johnshaft4]

Yo, Stephen 'psuedo wannabe' National (In)Security Advisor...I've got your "Daunting", right here, right now...Come and get YOUR love...

[j-whitman]

Rick,,,,, That's talking about Bush, He insults us --

"Blessed are you when people insult you, persecute you and falsely say all kinds of evil against you because of me. 12Rejoice and be glad"

"UN AMERICAN" "UN PATRIOTIC" "EMBOLDENING THE ENEMY"

[j-whitman]

Conservative News DRUDGE REPORT -- Still has no article on NIE.... MEDIA BIAS THERE SINGINRICK ??

[bildooreilly]

That's the deal, if you try to be like Jesus you'll soon have a big crowd wanting to crucify you, if you want to be the devil they'll all come after you as well... people are pretty screwed when it comes to being truly godlike.

[bildooreilly]

Also singinrick, Jesus was a normal man that discovered his true innerself, kind of like Jimi Hendrix, and we all have the power to do all of the same things Jesus did... but watch out good chance you'll end up crucified... or murdered like Jimi...

[bildooreilly]

Read Isaiah 14:12 Singin Rick, Lucifer is the morning star. It's the brightest star in the sky that rises in the east trying to rise above the SUN of God, but is defeated every day.

It all goes back to the old egyptian Horus/Set Good/Evil Light/Darkness stuff..

Now singin rick, after you read that part of the bible, you should know that the masons always do their rituals facing east, and their womens group is the Ladies Of The Eastern Star...

I even saw where Al Sharpton was speaking at the "Church Of The Eastern Star" awhile back, because all these politicians in both parties are masons. Including George W. Bush whose father is one of the grand poobahs of the whole deal.

Wake up singinrick...

[bildooreilly]

An article in Britain's Daily Mail newspaper(www.mailonsunday.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=322226&in_ page_id=1770) read in part, "We traced hostinganime to the computer servers of Everyone's Internet, a Houston-based firm that boasts it is the %u2018world's largest dedicated hosting company,' providing space to one million web sites. The company's chief financial officer, Roy Alvin Marsh III, 45, is a flamboyant Texan whose influential friends include President Bush's Secretary of the Navy, Gordon England, Sharon Bush, the President's former sister-in-law, and her daughter, fashion model Lauren Bush. The firm's chief executive is his 44-year-old brother, Robert Marsh."

[bildooreilly]

Islamist Terror Via the American Internet
... such Websites operating with the collusion of U.S. Internet companies, knowingly ... Domain/Nameserver provider: Everyone's Internet in Houston, Texas: ...www.freerepublic.com/focus/fr/1188788/posts - 37k - Cached - More from this site
Terror Forum Sows Seeds of Jihad
... rising tide of terror-related websites say it wouldn't come ... I've seen the whole little game play out in Houston at Everyones Internet more than once. ...www.wired.com/news/privacy/1,68214-0.html - 19k - Cached - More from this site
FrontPage magazine.com :: Islamist Terror Via the American Internet by Lee Kaplan
... such Websites operating with the collusion of U.S. Internet companies, knowingly ... Domain/Nameserver provider: Everyone's Internet in Houston, Texas: ...www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=14586 - 57k - Cached - More from this site
Terror Forum Sows Seeds of Jihad
... the rising tide of terror-related websites say it wouldn't come as ... .uk was being hosted by Everyones Internet, a service provider based in Houston, ...www.wired.com/news/privacy/0,1848,68214,00.html - 33k - Cached - More from this site
Global Politician
Hosting Terror: 'Everyone's Internet' Promotes Online Terror Sites. Jeremy Reynalds - 6/19/2005 ... and pro-terrorist websites and eGroups that exist. ...globalpolitician.com/articledes.asp?ID=902&cid=11&sid=64 - 45k - Cached - More from this site

[bildooreilly]

A couple years ago some folks on the internet discovered that all the "al qaida" websites are hosted on a server in houston at the company Everyones Internet owned by a buddy of Bush named Robert Marsh... do a little reasearch... it's all a scam...

[j-whitman]

Sining off,, Much more news tomorrow

[j-whitman]

Radio,, He uses Palestinain Media Watch also, A Zionist fake news network.