Panel: Global Warming Caused By Humans

Delegates From 113 Countries Agree There's 90% Chance Climate Change Caused By Humans

(CBS/AP)  Officials from 113 countries agreed Thursday that a much-awaited international report will say that global warming was "very likely" caused by human activity, delegates to a climate change conference said.

Dozens of scientists and bureaucrats are editing the new report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in closed-door meetings in Paris. Their report, which must be unanimously approved, is to be released Friday.

Two participants, speaking on condition of anonymity because the meetings are confidential, said the group approved the term "very likely" in Thursday's sessions. That means they agree that there is a 90 percent chance that global warming is caused by humans.

The last report, in 2001, said global warming was "likely" caused by human activity. There had been speculation that the participants might try to change the wording this time to "virtually certain," which means a 99 percent chance.

The report is considered an authoritative document that could influence government and industrial policy worldwide.

"Very likely" means it is at least 90 percent certain that climate change is caused by humans burning fossil fuels, and will result in a temperature increase of between 2.5-10.4 F by the year 2100.

Some participants apparently had wanted to change that wording to "virtually certain," which connotes a 99 percent likelihood.

Scientists are trying to incorporate concerns that their early drafts underestimate how much the sea will rise by 2100 because they cannot predict how much ice will melt from Greenland and Antarctica.

In early drafts, scientists predicted a sea level rise of no more than 23 inches by 2100, but that does not include the ice sheet melts.

Also, for the first time, the climate panel says stronger hurricanes and cyclones since 1970 are "more likely than not" linked to global warming, according to a draft. That could change, however, since the issue is hotly debated in scientific circles.

One participant, who asked not to be identified, said there was a noticeable change in the U.S. delegation, which some accused of hanging up the 2001 talks: "The U.S. is much more constructive."

In the same way as the United States took a long time to accept the realities of global warming and its human causes, the Bush administration is now stressing a very different approach from most countries on how to respond, reports CBS News correspondent Mark Phillips. One idea Washington is pushing is literally "pie in the sky."

The U.S. is funding a study to see if millions of reflective plates, launched into space and positioned between the Earth and the sun, could reflect enough energy away to limit the warming. It's a giant space sunscreen that, even the man studying it says, is a hugely expensive, desperate idea.

"What kind of a planet is this where you have to rely on the high technology fix. You have to go to the heart of the problem and reduce the greenhouse gases," says researcher Roger Angel of the University of Arizona.

The study traces global temperatures and so-called greenhouse gases going back thousands of years. It shows a gradual variation until the Industrial Revolution begins, when fossil fuel use skyrockets, as do temperatures, reports Phillips, who obtained an early version last week.

"As we add to those gases, we are just doing the same thing as putting another blanket on our bed at night," said Sir David King, British chief government scientific adviser. "The consequences are that you get warmer, and that is as simple as it is."

While this report presents the grim realities of climate change in stark terms, reports Phillips, it is not a doomsday scenario. There are responses - scientific, economic, political — that can help limit the damage and help the world react. Government advisers like King say solutions are already available. Among them: limiting emissions, hybrid cars, energy-efficient homes, alternative power sources and less travel.

During his State of the Union address last month, President Bush called for American imports to be cut by the equivalent of 75 percent of the oil coming from the Middle East.

In a subsequent a speech, Mr. Bush said he would seek $1.6 billion in funding over the next decade for research into alternative energy.

Former U.S. Sen. Timothy E. Wirth, a Colorado Democrat who was a former U.S. chief negotiator on the Kyoto Protocol, noted that the remarks were short on specifics, but that Mr. Bush was "understanding finally that this is a serious issue that the U.S. has to address."

Wirth added that the U.S. needed to provide leadership, but said it would be hard for Mr. Bush to do that.

"We will wait for John McCain or Hillary Clinton ... or somebody who will be in a very different position in 2009," he said, referring to the two senators who are considered the front-runners for the Republican and Democratic parties in the 2008 election.

Two private advocacy groups told a congressional hearing Tuesday that climate scientists at seven government agencies say they have been subjected to political pressure aimed at downplaying the threat of global warming.

The groups presented a survey that shows two in five of the 279 climate scientists who responded to a questionnaire complained that some of their scientific papers had been edited in a way that changed their meaning. Nearly half of the 279 said in response to another question that at some point they had been told to delete reference to "global warming" or "climate change" from a report.

[frankly6]

The debate is over people. The scientific evidence has been in for years. Global warming is real, it will have catastrophic consequences, and it is caused by man. It's time to develope some sane, sustainable ways of living on this planet.

[dallison7]

GO AL GORE!!!

[olebd]

I'll be (trying) to sell my house soon. I think I'll market it as "Future oceanfront property" even though I'm currently about 150 miles from the coast.

[bigwhtpony]

We are all in agreement that the delegates from the 113 countries are A**HOLES! So just because we have reached a "consensus" on the subject, it must be true.

[frankly6]

The National Academy of Sciences looked at every published, peer-reviewed, scientific study done on Global Warming in the last ten years. 100% of them agreed on three things:

1. Global warming is real.

2. The consequences of Global Warming will be catastrophic for all life on this planet.

3. Global Warming is caused by man.

The world scientific community has been united on this for years. The so-called debate is just a disinformation campaign funded by fossil fuel dependent industries who stand to loose a lot of money as the planet shifts to more sustainable ways of doing things.

[skyk-2009]

We are all in agreement that the delegates from the 113 countries are A**HOLES! So just because we have reached a "consensus" on the subject, it must be true.
Posted by bigwhtpony at 10:32 AM : Feb 01, 2007


You know in my 56 years I've heard you Con's say some pretty stupid stuff. Every thing from "Equal but different is a good way to deal with Negro's" to "There is no problem with Clean Water in this nation". I've also read WRITTEN statements by you LOSERS supporting Child Labor to opposition to a Woman's Right to Vote. There is ONE constant in all that folks. It is that Con's have NEVER been right, NOT ONCE, about issues of our enviroment. Now when you can NOT point to ONE time you have been right how can you say others are wrong? I'll give everyone out there odds that this pathetic LOSER is much more concerned with his wallet than he is with your health. Just and educated guess. LOL LOL

[skyk-2009]

I don't have to have 113 scientist tell me something is WRONG with our enviroment, all I need is my memory. I also, do not have to have anyone tell me that the Religious Reich, the folks who refuse to accept the reality of Gobal Warming, has NO concern with MY health and well being. Now we can either accept the REALITY of 113 EDUCATED MINDS or accept the opinion of people who went into our school's 4 decades ago and taught our kids that "Equal but Different" was the Word of God. Wow! Talk about a no brainer.
Did anyone hear what that Fundie Senator said and did when the issue of Global Warming came us as something the Senate needed to have hearings on? He called everyone of these Scientist LIARS. Poof? Well Proof hasn't much to do with things when it comes to the Hood and Sheet Crowd... not much at all.

[random_radar]

in 90 years the temperature will rise 10 degrees, the sea will rise 23 inches, social security will be bankrupt, and the world will run out of oil.

All of us will be dead long before then, so who cares? Your grandchildren will figure something out (assuming you bothered to have kids). Eat, drink, and be merry!

Anything we do to reduce global warming will also reduce the carrying capacity of the world. That means lots and lots of people will die. That would please the environmentalists (seriously), but I doubt you want to be a victim.

So eat, drink, and be merry! Tomorrow they plan to kill you to stop global warming.

[billion2005]

Global Warming Caused by humans?

uh DUUUUH

[frankly6]

random_radar

Huh? What are you talking about? The people who want to save the planet for future generations want to kill everybody? Carrying capacity? This has to be the worst argument for doing nothing I've seen.

[pfwag-2009]

The world's scientific community once believed the world was flat and the sun revolved around the earth too. Unanimity doesn't necessarily prove anything and, besides, there is a notable minority that disagree, especially about the cause and affect.

As for reviewing all the literature, did they consider Dr. Jaworowski's work (Solar Cycles, Not CO2, Determine Climate) published in 21st Century Science & Technology?

Probably not - he has too many undisputable facts debunking the CO2 contribution.

How about Claude Allegre, a leading French scientist who is a member of both the U.S. and French National Academies of Sciences, who recently defected from the "we're doomed" camp, and now says the cause of global warming is "unknown."

How about Dr William Gray - Mr. Hurricane?

No, there is no consensus - except for those in the politically motivated and closed minded "we are all going to die!" camp.

[santo_marco]

This is all rediculous. The world has undergone changes in the climate both up and down for millions of years. Our presence is simply a microfibre on a 1000 feet of rope. Just because we are "intelligent" enough to "analyze" the changes, we want to assume it is because of all we do in the world. People have forgotten...we really do not mean anything in this lifetime and that the world is far more powerful than we can possibly imagine. We will die off...and she will heal herself awaiting the next "intelligent" inhabitants to make their mark on the world for only but a nanosecond in time.

Heaven is our ultimate homestead.

[clarkalex]

bigwhtpony has no idea what science is. He thinks it's what Big Oil and the coal fired power plants tell him it is.

[frankly6]

santo_marco

What's rediculous is that people who haven't bothered to look into the science are content to parot the talking points of political pundits on an issue of such devastating importance.


The National Academy of Sciences looked at every published, peer-reviewed, scientific study done on Global Warming in the last ten years. 100% of them agreed on three things:

1. Global warming is real.

2. The consequences of Global Warming will be catastrophic for all life on this planet.

3. Global Warming is caused by man.

The world scientific community has been united on this for years. The so-called debate is just a disinformation campaign funded by fossil fuel dependent industries who stand to loose a lot of money as the planet shifts to more sustainable ways of doing things.

[karlimhof]

After nuclear proliferation - environmental disasters are two biggest dangers to the continued existence of the human race.

[pfwag-2009]

BTW skyk,

It was the Dems and social progressives that enforced the "seperate but equal" stuff. The Christian fundamentalists were the ones fighting against slavery. Ever hear of the Abolitionists, Abraham Lincoln or Dr. Martin Luther King?

Obviously in your 56 years you never checked to see which side was supporting what on that issue. But tell a lie long enough...

[dallison7]

This is all rediculous. The world has undergone changes in the climate both up and down for millions of years. Our presence is simply a microfibre on a 1000 feet of rope. Just because we are "intelligent" enough to "analyze" the changes, we want to assume it is because of all we do in the world. People have forgotten...we really do not mean anything in this lifetime and that the world is far more powerful than we can possibly imagine. We will die off...and she will heal herself awaiting the next "intelligent" inhabitants to make their mark on the world for only but a nanosecond in time.

Heaven is our ultimate homestead.
Posted by santo_marco

THIS STORY SURE BROUGHT OUT THE DUMB ****S.

[badbrown126]

Global warming is a bunch of chatter by people that are afraid to tackle big problems .... starvation, poverty, freedom.

It gives us something to debate while the world waits for another world war.

Much ado about nothing.

If the temperature starts to drop next year we will find some other "cause" to prevent us from dealing with serious problems.

[frankly6]

pfwag

You are talking about the Southern Democrats that all switched parties when a progressive Democratic President pushed for desegragation. That's when the South began to move from being solidly Democratic to solidy Republican.

[frankly6]

badbrown126

Read the science. Don't just parot the pundits.

[kesac4650]

The Earth's mean temp has been rising since about 1350, when the little ice age was kicked off by volcanic ash blanketing the earth. Whether we caused it, or not, it will probably continue until some natural global occurrence makes a course correction for us.
This is not the first time civilization has faced such a challenge. It will not be the last.
In the mean time, technology is the only thing that will help/allow us to adapt.
Screaming "mea culpa" will gain us nothing. Pointing fingers at anyone, will gain us nothing.
If civilization is to blame, each of us, whether witting or not have been part of the problem.
Those making accusations against others, are refusing to become part of the solution.

[frankly6]

kesac4650

The National Academy of Sciences looked at every published, peer-reviewed, scientific study done on Global Warming in the last ten years. 100% of them agreed on three things:

1. Global warming is real.

2. The consequences of Global Warming will be catastrophic for all life on this planet.

3. Global Warming is caused by man.

The world scientific community has been united on this for years. The so-called debate is just a disinformation campaign funded by fossil fuel dependent industries who stand to loose a lot of money as the planet shifts to more sustainable ways of doing things.

[badbrown126]

to frankly6 :

I have. Thats my point. The science is weak.

[antoniof123]

I think Global Warming is real I live in Florida and I have seen the changes in my life so I hope people take notice.

[frankly6]

badbrown126

Clearly you haven't or you wouldn't say that.

By the way Limbaugh, Hannity, and O'Reilly are not climatologists. They are pundits. Seek other sources for factual information.

[timetrips1]

FARTKNOCKER2:

Because Lightning can start forest fires and human arsonists also start forest fires we should excuse or ignore the arsonists? Your response to the situation of global warming is no different, because nature causes warming and humans cause warming there is nothing to be concerned with. I would think even if we are in a natural cycle that it is obvious enough that we cause additional pollution and just like picking the garbage up off our streets it is better to do something then ignore the problem completely and do nothing. This is one occasion where taking positive action can not hurt anything (even if it doesn't help) and doing nothing "could" cause irreparable harm. I would hate to think we are so selfish as to be unwilling to try because it might inconvenience

[olgreyghost]

Only a 90% chance this is caused by man but a 100% chance this report will lead to more government interference in our lives. After more people die or are killed in the name of "saving the planet" and the world's scientists then collectively inform us this was all just a phase the planet was going through, will there be one giant "Oops?"

[jebediah76]

OK _ greyguy - name ONE person who has died in the name of saving the planet. Just one. Idiot.

[djberson]

In response to the following comment, I think the opposite is closer to being true. The government seems to be downplaying global warming, and politicians always buckle to the oil-profiteers in terms of squashing "green" legislation. In other words, I would be surprised if the US goverment does much in response to global warming to change the way we have been living.


"Only a 90% chance this is caused by man but a 100% chance this report will lead to more government interference in our lives. After more people die or are killed in the name of "saving the planet" and the world's scientists then collectively inform us this was all just a phase the planet was going through, will there be one giant "Oops?""

[jebediah76]

Only 90%? That's like saying there is ONLY a 90% that playing in traffic on the highway will result in your death so we should all be allowed to walk the highways to our hearts content.

I would venture to guess the likelyhood of dying while walking on the highway are actually less that 90%.

So Old Grey Ghost here wants the government not to meddle in his Life? Screw you and your selfish attitude. I'd like my kids to be able to breathe and go out in the sunshine - and if it means you have to drive a smaller more efficient SUV in my opinion you can suck it up.

[rf35]

I bet bigwhtpony is President Bush's user name.

I no longer trust anything French.

Target stores are French-owned(just thought you should know).

As Manhatten and west L.A. are covered by water, Neocons will still claim that global warming is voodoo science or is just a natural change as they climb into their 8-cylinder SUV or F300 and move inland.

[huskerarmy]

OldGreyGhost,

Were yo uone of those who said we should invade Iraq even though we weren't 100% sure of WMD's? Let me get this straight, until we are 100% sure, we shouldn't do anything because it might cost your friends in Big Oil a little money? And who is going to "die in the name of saving the plant," who won't die anyway if your 10% odds turn out to be a looser?

[huskerarmy]

Those who refuse to accept the reality of global warming are equivalent to those who once refused to accept that the world was round.

[jebediah76]

Twenty years of Climnate study and the science is weak? You can take any argument and fight it out in court and discredit just about anything. It accomplishes nothing.
What gets me is that some seem to think that scientists sit around all day and dream up ways to inconvenience normal everyday folks.

I got news - the Job of Government is to Govern -or restrict - what the people -- for the sole purpose of making everyone's life better. Its why there are noise ordinances, why we regulate where we can dump our garbage, and why you can't drive 115 MPH on the highway without getting a ticket.

Grom up and take responsibility for your actions and your life. Use less gas - just a little. Drive a smaller car - just a little smaller. Turn off your lights or maybe run your AC a touch warmer than in the past. Was the message of conservation completely lost on you? If you use it all now you will not only not have an big fat truck to drive around in - you won't have a NASCAR Race to drive it to.

[huskerarmy]

"Old Grey Ghost here wants the government not to meddle in his Life?"

Just like they din't want FEMA to meddle in the lives of the residents of New Orleans after Katrina... Sad.

[olgreyghost]

Oh, neat. Some of you can insult just like most kindergarteners and have as much trouble when it comes to spelling.

What we are observing is the phenomenon of "group think." With an understanding of how it works one can get a jury to convict a man of a crime he didn't commit, a Congress to support the waging of a war that has no justification, and a country to vote for a president.

jeb - try all the victims of the green terrrorist formerly known as the "Unabomber" as a start. You are the one who is selfish and a whining hypocrite. If you really wanted to save the planet, you wouldn't be reading what I write and posting a response because you wouldn't be using your computer, which supposedly increases your "carbon footprint." Want the government to take it away from you in the name of "saving the planet," idiot?

[jebediah76]

Grey Ghost:

1. Calling the Unabomber a "Green terrorist" is like calling a Jihadi a messenger of peace. There is always one person who takes their cause so seriously that they do stupid and immoral things - these people are mentally Ill first- NOT environmentalists.
2. My carbon footprint may be slightly increased by my use of a computer - We all have a carbon footprint. I'm not apologizing for mine because I do what I can to keep it under control in other ways. I also support legislators who would like to keep the country's footprint as a whole under control. As opposed to Some, who like yourself, choose to support absolutely untenable arguments about the realities of global warming and pass it off as intellectual acumen. Nice try.

3. As far as my calling you an idiot goes - I do not apologize in the least. With the reams of information we have about Global warming, the incredibly high likelyhood of its human causes, the devastation it will wreak on both the natural environment and on the daily lives of people both here and abroad, and the incredible power non-conservation gives to our enemies in the oil-rich Middle East...With all this the best you can do is gripe about how government wants to change how you live your life?

[jebediah76]

Everything in the world is pointing you toward the simple fact that we need to change how we live our lives - just a bit - so that we don't screw it up for years and years. Ignoring it is stupid. Fighting against reality is idiotic.

You don't like being called an idiot? Tough. I call em like I see 'em, and you are an Idiot.

[bigwhtpony]

It's pronounced "Tarjay", not Target! And I say there's a 100% chance that the a**holes from 113 countries are chicken littles - waiting for the sky to fall.

Junk science, voodoo science.....their all "evildoers." :)

Sincerely.

GWB a.k.a. bigwhtpony

[mnelsonix]

Hubris to think humans are so powerful as to change global weather. The US will slow down polluting (Manufacturing jobs are disappearing here) but do you think Asian countries will?

We may be doomed but not by global warming!

[bigwhtpony]

Boys and girls, let me 'splain it to you.....this old earth is about 4.5 billion years old. In about 4 billion years, our sun will expand to ten thousand times its current size and envelope this old earth.

Death by fire. Meteors the size of small planets flying around out in space just itching for a chance to run in to us. This nut job in Iran promising to make all us "infidels" pay. The lunatic Chavez is now an offical dictator.

What's the problem? We're all going to die, it's just a matter of when.

The really sad part is, all your ranting and raving on a CBS comment blog isn't going to change a *** thing. So ya'll try and have a nice day, and be nice to each other! :)

[connapa]

GEE! And I thought it was from the methane that cows produce. What was I thinking?

[lars008-2009]

Real Climate meet Real Science!!!!

Unstoppable Global Warming documents the reality of a moderate, natural, 1500-year climate cycle on the earth. The Chilling Stars explains the why and how.

Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 Years (Paperback)
by Dennis T. Avery, S. Fred Singer
http://www.amazon.com/Unstoppable-Global-Warming-Every-Years/dp/0742551172

The Chilling Stars: A New Theory of Climate Change (Paperback)
by Henrik Svensmark (Author), Nigel Calder (Author)
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Chilling-Stars-Theory-Climate-Change/dp/1840468157
http://www.realclimate.org/

[lars008-2009]

Real Climate meet Real Science!!!!

Unstoppable Global Warming documents the reality of a moderate, natural, 1500-year climate cycle on the earth. The Chilling Stars explains the why and how.

Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 Years (Paperback)
by Dennis T. Avery, S. Fred Singer
Singer and Avery note that most of the earth%u2019s recent warming occurred before 1940, and thus before much human-emitted CO2. Moreover, physical evidence shows 600 moderate warmings in the earth%u2019s last million years. The evidence ranges from ancient Nile flood records, Chinese court documents and Roman wine grapes to modern spectral analysis of polar ice cores, deep seabed sediments, and layered cave stalagmites.

Unstoppable Global Warming shows the earth%u2019s temperatures following variations in solar intensity through centuries of sunspot records, and finds cycles of sun-linked isotopes in ice and tree rings. The book cites the work of Svensmark, who says cosmic rays vary the earth%u2019s temperatures by creating more or fewer of the low, wet clouds that cool the earth. It notes that global climate models can%u2019t accurately register cloud effects.
http://www.amazon.com/Unstoppable-Global-Warming-Every-Years/dp/0742551172
http://www.realclimate.org/

[lars008-2009]

Real Climate meet Real Science!!!!

Unstoppable Global Warming documents the reality of a moderate, natural, 1500-year climate cycle on the earth. The Chilling Stars explains the why and how.

The Chilling Stars: A New Theory of Climate Change by Henrik Svensmark, Nigel Calder
The Chilling Stars relates how Svensmark%u2019s team mimicked the chemistry of earth%u2019s atmosphere, by putting realistic mixtures of atmospheric gases into a large reaction chamber, with ultraviolet light as a stand-in for the sun. When they turned on the UV, microscopic droplets%u2014cloud seeds%u2014started floating through the chamber.

%u201CWe were amazed by the speed and efficiency with which the electrons [generated by cosmic rays] do their work of creating the building blocks for the cloud condensation nuclei,%u201D says Svensmark.

The Chilling Stars documents how cosmic rays amplify small changes in the sun%u2019s irradiance fourfold, creating 1-2 degree C cycles in earth%u2019s temperatures: Cosmic rays continually slam into the earth%u2019s atmosphere from outer space, creating ion clusters that become seeds for small droplets of water and sulfuric acid. The droplets then form the low, wet clouds that reflect solar energy back into space. When the sun is more active, it shields the earth from some of the rays, clouds wane, and the planet warms.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Chilli
ng-Stars-Theory-Climate-Change/dp/184046
8157
http://www.realclimate.org/

[stormcharity-2009]

For those interested in the weather:

Every year the most experienced Storm Chasers of the United States come together to produce a DVD featuring the most extreme storm events of the year. This year we bring you The Storms of 2006 DVD! A compilation of the best storm footage featuring 10 events and the work of over
50 contributors. 100% of proceeds to go to charitable organizations primarily the American Red Cross. Order today at http://www.stormsof2006.org and help those effected most by natural disasters.

[lars008-2009]

geeeee that explains all the previous global warmings and ice ages....... when there were no humans.....

i guess you would prefer the last ice age with glaciers covering most of the northern hemisphere.......

[lars008-2009]

you are off a few years.......
http://www.museum.state.il.us/exhibits/ice_ages/
When most people hear the words Ice Age, they think of glaciers covering much of North America and Eurasia, animals like mammoths and saber-toothed cats, and Cro-Magnon people painting cave walls. These things come to mind because the words "Ice Age" often refer to the last time that glaciers extended over a large portion of the Earth's surface. The ISM online exhibit The Midwestern U.S. 16,000 Years Ago provides more information on this glaciation in the Midwestern United States.
The amount of ice on the Earth's surface has varied greatly through time. For example, the extent of ice in North America has changed dramatically since the height of the last glacial advance 20,000 years ago.

During most of the last 1 billion years the earth had no permanent ice. However, sometimes large areas of the globe were covered with vast ice sheets. These times are known as ice ages. Illinois has experienced changes in rocks and fauna during these times. This Web module tells how some of these changes happened. Knowledge of the changes and their causes helps increase understanding about ancient rock formations and animals remains found in Illinois sites as evidenced in the Museum's specimen collections and site reports.

[frankly6]

The National Academy of Sciences looked at every published, peer-reviewed, scientific study done on Global Warming in the last ten years. 100% of them agreed on three things:

1. Global warming is real.

2. The consequences of Global Warming will be catastrophic for all life on this planet.

3. Global Warming is caused by man.

The world scientific community has been united on this for years. The so-called debate is just a disinformation campaign funded by fossil fuel dependent industries who stand to loose a lot of money as the planet shifts to more sustainable ways of doing things.

[lars008-2009]

a little increase in sea level is hardly catastrophic....

glaciers covering the earth, now that is catastrophic....

what caused the glaciers to recede 16,000 years ago then? i don't think there were 6 billion plus people driving cars, etc etc etc

i guess that means you are for eliminating say 90% of the worlds population and puninishing countries like china, india and muslims for having 1.3 billion people.....