Report: Iran 2-3 Years From Nuclear Weapon

But London Think Tank Report Says Domestic Opposition To Iranian Leader Could Stop Nuclear Efforts

(AP)  Iran is two to three years away from having the capacity to build a nuclear weapon, a leading security think tank said Wednesday. But the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said domestic opposition to outspoken President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad could still help put the brakes on its nuclear development efforts.

"There are signs that political and economic pressure is having an impact in Tehran," said John Chipman, the institute's chief executive, speaking at the launch of its annual publication, "The Military Balance."

Although Chipman said Iran could be as little as two years away from a bomb, other authorities say it could take Tehran significantly longer to reach that point.

Both John Negroponte, the head of national intelligence for the United States, and Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, have said Iran is perhaps four years from the capacity to produce a nuclear weapon.

While Iran could conceivably build a bomb in two years, a three-year time frame was more likely, said Mark Fitzpatrick, a nonproliferation expert at the institute. He said estimates floated by U.S. intelligence were conservative — a likely result of its chastening experience in Iraq.

"The CIA is being extra cautious these days," he said.

Chipman said Wednesday that Iran was on track to complete its goal of producing 3,000 centrifuges for producing highly-enriched uranium by the end of March or shortly thereafter. Many centrifuges had been obtained from the black market, he said.

Iran ultimately plans to expand its program to 54,000 centrifuges, which spin uranium hexaflouride gas into enriched uranium, a metal.

Iran says it aims to produce nuclear fuel to generate electricity. But if Iran chose, it could use the massive array of centrifuges to make enough weapons-grade material for dozens of nuclear warheads a year.

Diplomats briefed on the IAEA's findings said this month that the Iranians recently finished pre-assembly work at its enrichment facility at Natanz, in central Iran, which has been built underground as protection against attack.

In enrichment plants, centrifuges are linked by pipes in what are called cascades, which cycle the gas as it is processed. For now, the only known assembled centrifuge cascades in Iran are above ground at Natanz, consisting of two linked chains of 164 machines each and two smaller setups.

The two larger cascades have been running only sporadically to produce small quantities of non-weapons grade enriched uranium, while the smaller assemblies have been underground "dry testing" since November, IAEA inspectors have reported.

The United Nations on Dec. 23 imposed sanctions on Iran for pursuing enrichment efforts, and gave it 60 days to suspend the program.

A diplomat knowledgeable about Iran's enrichment program said last week that Tehran may not be technologically advanced enough to put together thousands of centrifuges in series — work that would take months even for more developed countries.

Chipman on Wednesday agreed. "Getting the centrifuge cascades to function properly is then another task of an entirely different order of magnitude" from installing the centrifuges, he said, adding that this process could take at least a year.

Once Iran's planned 3,000-centrifuge cascade was operational, the institute predicted it would take another nine to 11 months to produce about 55 pounds of highly enriched uranium, enough for a single weapon, he said.

Chipman also said it was possible that growing disquiet within Iran over Ahmadinejad's leadership — and the economic troubles linked to possible sanctions — may open a debate in the country on the wisdom of pursuing the nuclear program.

"Whether the internal debate will lead to a suspension in the enrichment program that would provide the basis for resumed negotiations remains to be seen," he said.

The institute is widely considered the most important security think tank outside the United States.

[swwils]

Iran has been a thorn in our spine since the Carter Admin.,we need to do something besides waiting for them to nuke someone.They apparently don't care about sanctions,someone is feeding them.They have oil and it is better than gold so they are going to get whatever we stop with sanctions.Personally I would like to see my children grow up without having to build a fallout shelter instead of a swimming pool.TRUMAN for President!

[skyk-2009]

Let the Democrats handle Iran. When things do go right and we get nuked they can always say that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad lied to them and we will beleive it.
Posted by hillaryin08 at 04:56 AM : Feb 01, 2007



Your HATE and your LOVE for FASCISM is going to distroy you!! I don't know and most American's do not know where we stand with Iran, how can we. Bush as lied so much and has been such a Terrible Commander in Chief, how can anyone in their right mind trust anything he say's let alone trust him to carry out any Military action anywhere? When you look at Iraq and the Thrashing he's taken there, I'd suggest we wait until we have a REAL Commander in Chief, one that stands a chance of winning, before we start any more wars. When you take the ADVANTAGE of the BEST and STRONGEST Military in the HISTORY of the world and get the Whoopin Sir Lies-A-Lot has taken in Iraq, then you can't Command a boyscout troop let alone the Military of this nation. Case closed!!

[dallison7]

This is all policical Hype and cover to cause the America people not to drag the administration out of Washington behind pick up trucks once the Attack Iran without authorization.
Posted by bluestardad at 07:07 AM : Feb 01, 2007

I LOVE that idea!! I'll fo buy a pickup truck for that party!!

[dallison7]

Why dont you ask your democrat friends why they want to draft you?
Posted by hillaryin08 at 04:54 AM : Feb 01, 2007



LOL!! Afraid some of your republican friends might have to fight their own wars?? This time, no deferments for chickenhawks!! LOL!!

[bluestardad]

This is all policical Hype and cover to cause the America people not to drag the administration out of Washington behind pick up trucks once the Attack Iran without authorization.

[gunownerdan]

A nuclear-armed Iran is a threat to the world, but so is a nuclear-armed NORTH KOREA.
North Korea already has nukes.
Bush totally failed to stop them!!!

[karlimhof]

BREAKING NEWS

ISRAEL LAUNCHES "SURPRISE" AIR ATTACKS AGAINST IRAN'S NUCLEAR "WEAPONS" INFRASTRUCTURE - BUSH COMES TO "ALLYS" AID AGAINST AGRESSOR IRAN

[hillaryin08]

Let the Democrats handle Iran. When things do go right and we get nuked they can always say that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad lied to them and we will beleive it.

[hillaryin08]

cantshutup

Why dont you ask your democrat friends why they want to draft you?

[karlimhof]

HEY - WHY DOESN'T OUR "ALLY" ISRAEL STEP UP TO THE PLATE AND GIVE US A HAND WITH IRAN ?

THEY COULD GIVE UP THEIR NUKES, WHICH SERVE THEM, NOR US, ABSOLUTELY NO PURPOSE - AND WE COULD THEN PROCEED TO MAKE R E A L PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

IF WE CONTINUE WITH OUR DOUBLE STANDARDS HOW CAN WE HOPE TO BE AN HONEST BROKER ?