Report: Iran 2-3 Years From Nuclear Weapon

But London Think Tank Report Says Domestic Opposition To Iranian Leader Could Stop Nuclear Efforts

(AP)  Iran is two to three years away from having the capacity to build a nuclear weapon, a leading security think tank said Wednesday. But the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said domestic opposition to outspoken President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad could still help put the brakes on its nuclear development efforts.

"There are signs that political and economic pressure is having an impact in Tehran," said John Chipman, the institute's chief executive, speaking at the launch of its annual publication, "The Military Balance."

Although Chipman said Iran could be as little as two years away from a bomb, other authorities say it could take Tehran significantly longer to reach that point.

Both John Negroponte, the head of national intelligence for the United States, and Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, have said Iran is perhaps four years from the capacity to produce a nuclear weapon.

While Iran could conceivably build a bomb in two years, a three-year time frame was more likely, said Mark Fitzpatrick, a nonproliferation expert at the institute. He said estimates floated by U.S. intelligence were conservative — a likely result of its chastening experience in Iraq.

"The CIA is being extra cautious these days," he said.

Chipman said Wednesday that Iran was on track to complete its goal of producing 3,000 centrifuges for producing highly-enriched uranium by the end of March or shortly thereafter. Many centrifuges had been obtained from the black market, he said.

Iran ultimately plans to expand its program to 54,000 centrifuges, which spin uranium hexaflouride gas into enriched uranium, a metal.

Iran says it aims to produce nuclear fuel to generate electricity. But if Iran chose, it could use the massive array of centrifuges to make enough weapons-grade material for dozens of nuclear warheads a year.

Diplomats briefed on the IAEA's findings said this month that the Iranians recently finished pre-assembly work at its enrichment facility at Natanz, in central Iran, which has been built underground as protection against attack.

In enrichment plants, centrifuges are linked by pipes in what are called cascades, which cycle the gas as it is processed. For now, the only known assembled centrifuge cascades in Iran are above ground at Natanz, consisting of two linked chains of 164 machines each and two smaller setups.

The two larger cascades have been running only sporadically to produce small quantities of non-weapons grade enriched uranium, while the smaller assemblies have been underground "dry testing" since November, IAEA inspectors have reported.

The United Nations on Dec. 23 imposed sanctions on Iran for pursuing enrichment efforts, and gave it 60 days to suspend the program.

A diplomat knowledgeable about Iran's enrichment program said last week that Tehran may not be technologically advanced enough to put together thousands of centrifuges in series — work that would take months even for more developed countries.

Chipman on Wednesday agreed. "Getting the centrifuge cascades to function properly is then another task of an entirely different order of magnitude" from installing the centrifuges, he said, adding that this process could take at least a year.

Once Iran's planned 3,000-centrifuge cascade was operational, the institute predicted it would take another nine to 11 months to produce about 55 pounds of highly enriched uranium, enough for a single weapon, he said.

Chipman also said it was possible that growing disquiet within Iran over Ahmadinejad's leadership — and the economic troubles linked to possible sanctions — may open a debate in the country on the wisdom of pursuing the nuclear program.

"Whether the internal debate will lead to a suspension in the enrichment program that would provide the basis for resumed negotiations remains to be seen," he said.

The institute is widely considered the most important security think tank outside the United States.

[bigwhtpony]

Wait....you mean, he lied to us????? Of all the nerve!!!!

[bigwhtpony]

Caption for the picture: "Abdule, I sware to Allah, that American's johnson was THIS BIG!"

[johnshaft4]

2 to 3 years away, huh? Dead enders Bush and Cheney are on their last throes. Less then 2 years left of their regime. Better kill each and every Iranian now. Times a wastin'...chop, chop..

bigwhtpony
Thats Just to funny...Hey maybe he will go for the circumcision instead if the beheading, never know he might revert to Judaism too%u2026LOL

[legendary240]

Good for Iran...they are their own country...just like we are.
Posted by jh6379 at 03:55 PM : Jan 31, 2007

Yeah, good for them - this time we can ALL agree on the WMD reason and turn the whole country into one huge sheet of molten glass. Should've done it in '79 but we had a liberal appeaser in the White House. In two years we'll have another one, so we better get cookin' while there's a man in charge and not some fat-ankled Clintoness or Osama Barack.

[consciousnes]

But he only wants nuclar energy for peaceful purposes.

[bjlovejoy]

Great... Here's a great example of an article giving information unnecessarily to those who might use it in a bad way: How many centrifuges needed, how they are arranged process-wise, and how much material is required for a nominally sized weapon! Now, I know that this info is available elsewhere to those who really want to find it, but I think that the press needs to be a bit more responsible in this fashion. Adding those technical details did not add to the story, in my opinion.

[bjlovejoy]

Here's how this article should have been written:
The International Institute for Strategic Studies states that Iran may be 2 to 3 years away from having a nuclear weapon. Take this with a grain of salt, though, as these people's opinions were weighed in with other "intelligence" prior to the invasion of Iraq, giving us the false idea that Iraq had so-called, "Weapons of Mass Destruction". We just thought that we'd pass the information along anyway.

[rsoxfan1123]

And we removed Hussein from power- the one person that kept Iran in check. Iran-Iraq counterbalanced one another nicely in this region. Bush has created a vacuum that the Iranians are more than happy to fill with their hatred for us. In essence, bush and his republican minions have destabilized the entire region.

[rsoxfan1123]

superchez1-after thanking the bush adminstration for making us vulnerable by commiting this many troop to Iraq in search of profits for his oil baron friends, we will function as a part of the UN rather than as the lone ranger, as bush did.

[exusmcsgt]

On January 29, 2002, (five years ago now) Bubba Dubya called Iran, Iraq, and N. Korea the "axis of evil" in his State of The Union Address.

Iran and N. Korea had long range delivery systems already on the ground. Iraq did not.

N.Korea and Iran were in the process of developing nuclear weaponry to place on those delivery systems. Iraq was not.

So who did this moron decide to go after claiming that it was an immediate threat to the U.S.? Iraq, of course.

What an unmitigated idiot......

He invaded the one country that couldn't attack us and the other two who can just get lip service.

What vision and leadership. A kindergardner could have done as well.

[macusweil]

Just pathetic-- Bush's neocon henchmen outted Valerie Plame Wilson who just happened to be an establish middle east operative!! Not that they give a rat's *ss about real intelligence, seems they prefer to make it up as they go along.

So in reality we have no clue-- this report says 2-3 years I've also heard 5-10 years. Who cares if they have nukes anyway. If the even try to pop one we flatten their country.

[agnim]

"Report: Iran 2-3 Years From Nuclear Weapon"

JUST THE RIGHT TIME 'WINDOW' TO JUSTIFY A BUSHWHACKING, RIGHT? LOL

People, this is just another beating of the war drums to escalate the devilish bush wars!

[exusmcsgt]

But he only wants nuclar energy for peaceful purposes.
Posted by Consciousnes at 05:23 PM : Jan 31, 2007

Just like Israel only needs it for useful purposes........

[exusmcsgt]

Make that "peaceful" purposes.....

[gdmoore2]

Bush appears to be looking for an excuse to attack Iran. He is close to becoming a truly lame-duck President, and he knows it. He and the neocons want to prove their ideology works. U.S. forces on land, sea, and air are being moved to even closer proximity to Iran. He may come to believe that only a dramatic event will shift the electorate back to the Republicans. And Bush has this troubling thread of fundamentalism, with 'God on his side.' This is a dangerous moment.

[Syndicate]

I think they could have a bomb sooner. Its just a gut feeling. Based on the fact the thier entire nuclear program was hidden. No one actually knows how much or what they have in terms of equipment. I think the main goal is an atomic weapon. Because the temptaion of a nuclear weapon would be too much for a country with regional aspirations. Frankly why not build a bomb. It really would not cost anything if you were building a nuclear reactor anyway. This would be one of the possible reasons they turned down every offer that removed the enrichment cycle from thier hands. The Iranians are playing a good game. Thier claim to want nuclear power for peaceful purposes is just barley credible. I suspect thier program is dual purpose in nature.

[grazinggoat]

This is a link to Ynetnews stating a plan to hit Iran by or before the end of Walking-Liar term:

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3359232,00.html

US Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns said this month European governments should curtail billions of euros of export credits available for trade with Iran. He also criticized arms deals Russia and China have with Tehran.



"The US goal is to make it virtually impossible to invest in Iran. It's not about stopping sales of dual-use technology. They're trying to keep investors out of Iran and are working hard to keep the price of oil low," said a European diplomat.



"They (the US) think that this is what will hurt Iran most and I think they're right," he added


Are you, guys/gals, happy the price of Oil is low nowaday? Be sure it's not for you that Walking-Liar is lowering the gas price. It's just to make a kill and then he'll turn around and skrew us again.

[exusmcsgt]

Bush appears to be looking for an excuse to attack Iran.

Posted by gdmoore2 at 07:56 PM

The neocons handed Iran exactly what it wanted when they invaded Iraq. They took out the guy who had kept Iran at bay for decades.

Now, thanks to the neocons, the door is swinging wide open and Bush/Cheney/Rice are trying the sabre-rattling technique to keep Iran from capitalizing on their tremendous strategic blunder.

It won't work. Iran has whaht it's coveted for so long - entree into SE Iraq, and it's all thanks to the neocons.

Iran must be laughing right it's thier sleeve at the neocon's stupidity.

[exusmcsgt]

Make that "laughing right up their sleeve"....

[inventagod]

Brought to you by the 'Bad Intel' Administration.

[leebyman1]

It's weird that you could take the user comments from any one issue and apply them to any other issue. They're mostly spiteful attacks aimed against perceived stereotypical people that don't actually exist. "You hate American troops and want terrorists to take over the world!" "Oh yeah? You just want to go out and start wars for oil and fun" As if. I think if many of you vengeful commenters realized how much you have in common with the people you bicker with on this site, you would be ashamed and would start discussing issues rather than launching verbal mortar attacks. Speaking of discussion, I'm curious as to what the Iranian people really feel about all of this. Word is that the people are starting to push against the goverment, but I wonder what's really going on. Anyone ever lived there or visited?

[exusmcsgt]

I think if many of you vengeful commenters realized how much you have in common with the people you bicker with on this site, you would be ashamed and would start discussing issues rather than launching verbal mortar attacks.

Posted by leebyman1 at 09:02 PM


Agreed and well stated. There is obviously no shortage of individuals who feel that insult is a suitable tactic in debate.

I have always assumed that the majority of these individuals are not capable of being self-circumspect in regards to their own views and the basis for same.

When faced with facts that support views other than their own, they melt down, revert to the child in them, and lash out with insult.

Some fight growing up tooth and nail, obviously.

[thuber5]

I find it funny that we are so worried about Iran when we could probably destroy everything they have in about 2 seconds, but then again, the rest of the world would wage war on us for having no mercy on radical terrorists that have been attacking our county for years. Think France could fill our shoes???? I wish them luck.

[johnshaft4]

Iran, like any other nation has an intrinsic right to generate electricity by nuclear energy.
If Israel would eliminate their nuclear weapons, perhaps Iran would be more receptive to having full time UN inspectors at their reactors. It would be stupid of Iran to continue to burn natural gas to generate electricity when gas is an export cash cow for them.

[exusmcsgt]

"I find it funny that we are so worried about Iran when we could probably destroy everything they have in about 2 seconds.."

Posted by THUBER5 at 09:51 PM

I find it funny that someone would demonstrate such ignorance in public. You are obviously ignorant of the fact that Iran has built their facilities underground so as to be virtually impervious to attack.

[txgs33]

Who cares if Iran gets tha bomb! They will have it and there's nothin anyone can do about it blah, blah, blah, blah, blah!

Seriously, no one has more nukes than the US. If Iran detonates one or two and takes out a couple of cities ( witch they will do in tha future! ) then the US will respond and launch enough nukes to obliterate every square inch of Iran. I wonder if roaches would survive that kind of devastation?

[j-whitman]

Wasn't that the identical thing Bush & Rice said about Iraq ???

[gaye5]

exusmcsgt, there is a big difference between Israel and Iran... Israel could have wiped these people off the map years ago and haven't. With the constant number of times in the last 50 years that Muslims have strapped themselves with bombs and sat down in Israeli schools, shopping centers, buses, synagogues etc and blown themselves up killing babies, children and adults I sure would have wiped the Arabs out... On the other hand the constant fighting between the Arabs and every one who looks and thinks differently, makes Iran a danger to the whole world if they acquire nuclear..

[specimenfred]

PROPAGANDA BULLS**T PSY-OP BUILDUP TO WAR

I hope you conpukes are buying it.

[cantshutup]

THE DRAFT IS HERE. Universal Nat'l Service Act of 2007.
NOT TO ALARM YOU OR ANYTHING. Just passing this along.

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/
query/z?c110:H.R.393:

Universal National Service Act of 2007 (Introduced in House)
HR 393 IH
110th CONGRESS
1st Session
H. R. 393
To require all persons in the United States between the ages of 18 and 42 to perform national service, either as a member of the uniformed services or in civilian service in furtherance of the national defense and homeland security, to authorize the induction of persons in the uniformed services during wartime to meet end-strength requirements of the uniformed services, to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to make permanent the favorable treatment afforded combat pay under the earned income tax credit, and for other purposes.
IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
January 10, 2007

[specimenfred]

HOPE YOU'RE BUYING THIS *** REPUKES

[peter2489]

I THINK IRAN WANTS A CONFRONTATION WITH THE USA,AND WITH THE POOR ABILITY IN IRAC IT FEELS MORE CONFIDENT THAT AMERICA IS IN A WEAKER POSITION AT THE MOMENT,AND IT SEES ITS BEST TIME TO FORCE BUSH INTO A WAR THAT IRAN FEELS IT COULD MAKE STRONG REGIONAL GAINS,HOPING TO FORCE AMERICA OUT OF THE MIDDLE EAST AND THERE FOR BECOMING THE MOST POWERFUL FORCE THERE.AND IT FEELS BY DOING THIS IT WILL WEAKEN ISRAL WHICH HAS BEEN ITS NUMBER 1 TARGET!!!

[feelfree1]

Re: "The institute is widely considered the most important security think tank outside the United States."

You have got to be kidding me?

Widely considered by who? Richard Perle? Henry Kissenger? Bill Kristol?

Give me an eff-ing Break!?

This "International Institute for Strategic Studies", group is obviously a hype factory, 'believed' by almost no-one ouside of Tel Aviv.

If you will notice, no author claims responsibility for this rancid piece of yellow journalism, and I can see why.

Where have these fools posted the data to support these claims?

Israel has nukes. Ahmadinejad certainly poses no greater threat than the extremist, ideological kooks that run Israel.

What is the problem here?

[shingles1]

"On the other hand the constant fighting between the Arabs and every one who looks and thinks differently, makes Iran a danger to the whole world if they acquire nuclear..
Posted by Gaye5"

Except that the Iranians aren't Arabs.

[acauble1]

It's quite clear that this is a repeat of the run-up to the war in Iraq.

Certain political leaders will pick and chose which reports to believe and repeat to the masses of uninformed and possibly uneducated followers. They will then make threats to the "rogue" country while secretly planning an invasion which they claim will be used as a "last resort", (while little or no effort is put into a diplomatic effort). More reports will come out about the situation with the "rogue" country, many reports disputing the claims made by the political leaders in the U.S. that this "rogue" country poses a threat to national security. But of course, the political leaders in the U.S. only chose the reports that support their claims and continue to repeat the bull sh't that too many followers believe.

If you were awake throughout 2002 and 2003, you can finish the rest of the story that I started. It's all just a repeat.

[bildooreilly]

Will they really take out fellow brother and freemason amnijob or however the hell you spell the iranian presidents name...

Check him out in the picture, he's showing he's "On The Square" by making a square. Freemasons are square guys, their logo is the compass and the square. He's showing he's part of the gang. Same gang runs this country, europe, asia, pretty much the entire world. Wake up fools.

[gdmoore2]

The Iranians have to understand that with nuclear weapons, there is a only a small space between sanctions and military intervention. Any sign of nuclear terrorism has to result in immediate military action due to the danger of the weapons. We cannot afford an error.

Bush may attack Iran. I do not agree with that action. International and regional diplomacy accompanied by sanctions and inspections should be given a chance to work. The US should work hard to act in accordance with an international and regional sense of justice. But if Bush does attack, Ahmadinejad will have brought it on himself. Ahmadinejad needs to understand the neocons are looking for any excuse.

[karlimhof]

HEY - WHY DOESN'T OUR "ALLY" ISRAEL STEP UP TO THE PLATE AND GIVE US A HAND WITH IRAN ?

THEY COULD GIVE UP THEIR NUKES, WHICH SERVE THEM, NOR US, ABSOLUTELY NO PURPOSE - AND WE COULD THEN PROCEED TO MAKE R E A L PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

IF WE CONTINUE WITH OUR DOUBLE STANDARDS HOW CAN WE HOPE TO BE AN HONEST BROKER ?

[hillaryin08]

cantshutup

Why dont you ask your democrat friends why they want to draft you?

[hillaryin08]

Let the Democrats handle Iran. When things do go right and we get nuked they can always say that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad lied to them and we will beleive it.

[karlimhof]

BREAKING NEWS

ISRAEL LAUNCHES "SURPRISE" AIR ATTACKS AGAINST IRAN'S NUCLEAR "WEAPONS" INFRASTRUCTURE - BUSH COMES TO "ALLYS" AID AGAINST AGRESSOR IRAN

[gunownerdan]

A nuclear-armed Iran is a threat to the world, but so is a nuclear-armed NORTH KOREA.
North Korea already has nukes.
Bush totally failed to stop them!!!

[bluestardad]

This is all policical Hype and cover to cause the America people not to drag the administration out of Washington behind pick up trucks once the Attack Iran without authorization.

[dallison7]

Why dont you ask your democrat friends why they want to draft you?
Posted by hillaryin08 at 04:54 AM : Feb 01, 2007



LOL!! Afraid some of your republican friends might have to fight their own wars?? This time, no deferments for chickenhawks!! LOL!!

[dallison7]

This is all policical Hype and cover to cause the America people not to drag the administration out of Washington behind pick up trucks once the Attack Iran without authorization.
Posted by bluestardad at 07:07 AM : Feb 01, 2007

I LOVE that idea!! I'll fo buy a pickup truck for that party!!

[skyk-2009]

Let the Democrats handle Iran. When things do go right and we get nuked they can always say that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad lied to them and we will beleive it.
Posted by hillaryin08 at 04:56 AM : Feb 01, 2007



Your HATE and your LOVE for FASCISM is going to distroy you!! I don't know and most American's do not know where we stand with Iran, how can we. Bush as lied so much and has been such a Terrible Commander in Chief, how can anyone in their right mind trust anything he say's let alone trust him to carry out any Military action anywhere? When you look at Iraq and the Thrashing he's taken there, I'd suggest we wait until we have a REAL Commander in Chief, one that stands a chance of winning, before we start any more wars. When you take the ADVANTAGE of the BEST and STRONGEST Military in the HISTORY of the world and get the Whoopin Sir Lies-A-Lot has taken in Iraq, then you can't Command a boyscout troop let alone the Military of this nation. Case closed!!

[swwils]

Iran has been a thorn in our spine since the Carter Admin.,we need to do something besides waiting for them to nuke someone.They apparently don't care about sanctions,someone is feeding them.They have oil and it is better than gold so they are going to get whatever we stop with sanctions.Personally I would like to see my children grow up without having to build a fallout shelter instead of a swimming pool.TRUMAN for President!