LONDON, Jan. 31, 2007
Report: Iran 2-3 Years From Nuclear Weapon
But London Think Tank Report Says Domestic Opposition To Iranian Leader Could Stop Nuclear Efforts
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Iran could be close having the capacity to build a nuclear weapon, but domestic opposition to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad could help end its nuclear development efforts, according to a London think tank report. (AP Photo/Esteban Felix)
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"There are signs that political and economic pressure is having an impact in Tehran," said John Chipman, the institute's chief executive, speaking at the launch of its annual publication, "The Military Balance."
Although Chipman said Iran could be as little as two years away from a bomb, other authorities say it could take Tehran significantly longer to reach that point.
Both John Negroponte, the head of national intelligence for the United States, and Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, have said Iran is perhaps four years from the capacity to produce a nuclear weapon.
While Iran could conceivably build a bomb in two years, a three-year time frame was more likely, said Mark Fitzpatrick, a nonproliferation expert at the institute. He said estimates floated by U.S. intelligence were conservative — a likely result of its chastening experience in Iraq.
"The CIA is being extra cautious these days," he said.
Chipman said Wednesday that Iran was on track to complete its goal of producing 3,000 centrifuges for producing highly-enriched uranium by the end of March or shortly thereafter. Many centrifuges had been obtained from the black market, he said.
Iran ultimately plans to expand its program to 54,000 centrifuges, which spin uranium hexaflouride gas into enriched uranium, a metal.
Iran says it aims to produce nuclear fuel to generate electricity. But if Iran chose, it could use the massive array of centrifuges to make enough weapons-grade material for dozens of nuclear warheads a year.
Diplomats briefed on the IAEA's findings said this month that the Iranians recently finished pre-assembly work at its enrichment facility at Natanz, in central Iran, which has been built underground as protection against attack.
In enrichment plants, centrifuges are linked by pipes in what are called cascades, which cycle the gas as it is processed. For now, the only known assembled centrifuge cascades in Iran are above ground at Natanz, consisting of two linked chains of 164 machines each and two smaller setups.
The two larger cascades have been running only sporadically to produce small quantities of non-weapons grade enriched uranium, while the smaller assemblies have been underground "dry testing" since November, IAEA inspectors have reported.
The United Nations on Dec. 23 imposed sanctions on Iran for pursuing enrichment efforts, and gave it 60 days to suspend the program.
A diplomat knowledgeable about Iran's enrichment program said last week that Tehran may not be technologically advanced enough to put together thousands of centrifuges in series — work that would take months even for more developed countries.
Chipman on Wednesday agreed. "Getting the centrifuge cascades to function properly is then another task of an entirely different order of magnitude" from installing the centrifuges, he said, adding that this process could take at least a year.
Once Iran's planned 3,000-centrifuge cascade was operational, the institute predicted it would take another nine to 11 months to produce about 55 pounds of highly enriched uranium, enough for a single weapon, he said.
Chipman also said it was possible that growing disquiet within Iran over Ahmadinejad's leadership — and the economic troubles linked to possible sanctions — may open a debate in the country on the wisdom of pursuing the nuclear program.
"Whether the internal debate will lead to a suspension in the enrichment program that would provide the basis for resumed negotiations remains to be seen," he said.
The institute is widely considered the most important security think tank outside the United States.
© MMVII The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The secrets of tennis legend 
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See all 48 CommentsLet the Democrats handle Iran. When things do go right and we get nuked they can always say that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad lied to them and we will beleive it.
Posted by hillaryin08 at 04:56 AM : Feb 01, 2007
Your HATE and your LOVE for FASCISM is going to distroy you!! I don't know and most American's do not know where we stand with Iran, how can we. Bush as lied so much and has been such a Terrible Commander in Chief, how can anyone in their right mind trust anything he say's let alone trust him to carry out any Military action anywhere? When you look at Iraq and the Thrashing he's taken there, I'd suggest we wait until we have a REAL Commander in Chief, one that stands a chance of winning, before we start any more wars. When you take the ADVANTAGE of the BEST and STRONGEST Military in the HISTORY of the world and get the Whoopin Sir Lies-A-Lot has taken in Iraq, then you can't Command a boyscout troop let alone the Military of this nation. Case closed!!
Posted by bluestardad at 07:07 AM : Feb 01, 2007
I LOVE that idea!! I'll fo buy a pickup truck for that party!!
Posted by hillaryin08 at 04:54 AM : Feb 01, 2007
LOL!! Afraid some of your republican friends might have to fight their own wars?? This time, no deferments for chickenhawks!! LOL!!
North Korea already has nukes.
Bush totally failed to stop them!!!
ISRAEL LAUNCHES "SURPRISE" AIR ATTACKS AGAINST IRAN'S NUCLEAR "WEAPONS" INFRASTRUCTURE - BUSH COMES TO "ALLYS" AID AGAINST AGRESSOR IRAN
Why dont you ask your democrat friends why they want to draft you?
THEY COULD GIVE UP THEIR NUKES, WHICH SERVE THEM, NOR US, ABSOLUTELY NO PURPOSE - AND WE COULD THEN PROCEED TO MAKE R E A L PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
IF WE CONTINUE WITH OUR DOUBLE STANDARDS HOW CAN WE HOPE TO BE AN HONEST BROKER ?
Bush may attack Iran. I do not agree with that action. International and regional diplomacy accompanied by sanctions and inspections should be given a chance to work. The US should work hard to act in accordance with an international and regional sense of justice. But if Bush does attack, Ahmadinejad will have brought it on himself. Ahmadinejad needs to understand the neocons are looking for any excuse.
Check him out in the picture, he's showing he's "On The Square" by making a square. Freemasons are square guys, their logo is the compass and the square. He's showing he's part of the gang. Same gang runs this country, europe, asia, pretty much the entire world. Wake up fools.
Certain political leaders will pick and chose which reports to believe and repeat to the masses of uninformed and possibly uneducated followers. They will then make threats to the "rogue" country while secretly planning an invasion which they claim will be used as a "last resort", (while little or no effort is put into a diplomatic effort). More reports will come out about the situation with the "rogue" country, many reports disputing the claims made by the political leaders in the U.S. that this "rogue" country poses a threat to national security. But of course, the political leaders in the U.S. only chose the reports that support their claims and continue to repeat the bull sh't that too many followers believe.
If you were awake throughout 2002 and 2003, you can finish the rest of the story that I started. It's all just a repeat.
Posted by Gaye5"
Except that the Iranians aren't Arabs.
You have got to be kidding me?
Widely considered by who? Richard Perle? Henry Kissenger? Bill Kristol?
Give me an eff-ing Break!?
This "International Institute for Strategic Studies", group is obviously a hype factory, 'believed' by almost no-one ouside of Tel Aviv.
If you will notice, no author claims responsibility for this rancid piece of yellow journalism, and I can see why.
Where have these fools posted the data to support these claims?
Israel has nukes. Ahmadinejad certainly poses no greater threat than the extremist, ideological kooks that run Israel.
What is the problem here?
NOT TO ALARM YOU OR ANYTHING. Just passing this along.
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/
query/z?c110:H.R.393:
Universal National Service Act of 2007 (Introduced in House)
HR 393 IH
110th CONGRESS
1st Session
H. R. 393
To require all persons in the United States between the ages of 18 and 42 to perform national service, either as a member of the uniformed services or in civilian service in furtherance of the national defense and homeland security, to authorize the induction of persons in the uniformed services during wartime to meet end-strength requirements of the uniformed services, to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to make permanent the favorable treatment afforded combat pay under the earned income tax credit, and for other purposes.
IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
January 10, 2007
I hope you conpukes are buying it.
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