The "X" Factor For Success In Iraq

(AP)  A much-anticipated intelligence assessment on Iraq says success depends on improving security within the nation, which is fueling sectarian violence, hurting the government and slowing reconstruction, a senior U.S. intelligence official told senators Tuesday.

The highly classified National Intelligence Estimate from the nation's 16 spy agencies has been in the works for months, with lawmakers increasingly eager to get intelligence analysts' views on Iraq and the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

President Bush recently announced a revised strategy for Iraq, which includes sending in 21,500 additional troops and putting more pressure on the Iraqis to repair the security situation.

Thomas Fingar, the top intelligence official in the Office of the National Intelligence Director, said it will be difficult — but not impossible — for al-Maliki to succeed.

"The logic that we have applied looks at the importance of security — security as an impediment to reconciliation, as an impediment to good governance, as an impediment to reconstruction," Fingar told the Senate Intelligence Committee in a hearing on intelligence changes.

The brief overview provided just a peek at the intelligence estimate. The White House will have to decide what, if any, portions of the document will be made public.

Lawmakers have been asking for the assessment since well before the November elections, and the National Intelligence Director's Office said the document could be done by the end of January.

Fingar told lawmakers that improved stability "could open a window for gains in reconciliation" among Iraq's sectarian groups, including the Sunnis and the Shiites. And that "could open possibilities for a moderate coalition in the legislature that could commit better governance," he added, acknowledging the assessment was full of conditional statements.

Fingar said the government's analysts believe that al-Maliki "does not wish to preside over the disintegration of Iraq."

Sen. John Warner, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee and an Intelligence Committee member, complained that the document remains a work in progress even as Congress enters a debate on resolutions about Mr. Bush's plan for Iraq.

"It is incumbent on the intelligence community to provide its best assessment of the Maliki government's chances for success" under Mr. Bush's program, Warner said.

[timetrips1]

They should have divided the country into three seperate states a long time ago. Continue with a "centralized" Iraq government but allow three "state" governments. Then later they can each succeed from the union if they want to.

The other step which should have been done when they disbanded the army is to confiscate ALL weapons. Give them one week to turn in all weapons after that anyone found with a "loaded" weapon or weapon and ammo on their person should be arrested, tried and executed, preferrabley within a 24 hour period.

[getagrip54]

Shiites were opressed under Saddam but they are the majority in Iraq. Sunnis were top dogs under Saddam but have been reduced to bystanders in the current Iraqi government. Both sides hate the US occupation but hate each other more. The Kurds in the north want their own country. They don't want anything to do with the Shias or Sunnis. I can see 2 ways to get the troops out. Find another strongman to take Sadams place as dictator and ignore him as he brutalizes everyone into submission or break the country up along religious lines (as occured when the British left India). Neither answer is a win for the US.

[clestes-2009]

They have to do a years study to tell us that security is the key to bringing stability to Baghdad! Like anyone with a little common sense did not know that. They could have saved a lot of money and just asked the average Joe or Joeanna on the street.

[gdmoore2]

I would be much more interested in the comments of a Jordanian analyst regarding what factors might help stabilize Iraq. We need the insight of someone from the region, with a bit of distance from Iraq, but with common cultural and social understanding. That is one reason why the results of the Iraq Study Group are so important - the recommendation to expand diplomacy and communications in the larger region.

Improving security would certainly help the lives of Iraqi citizens simply trying to live from day to day. But that is like saying the patient would be more comfortable if his temperature was normal. If that is all that 16 U.S. intelligence agencies can contribute, then it is no wonder the U.S. is mired down.

[mikekleber]

Since Bush and Cheney send our soldiers off to an area that we should have never gone into and spending billions doing so, I say let Cheney and Bush pay for their little war with their own money, since they and their buddies have made billions from it. They don't seem to mind sending our soldiers, probably because both of them were cowards and refused to go off to war. The only way to get their attention is money. C'mon *** and George show us how much it means to you when you're spending your own money.

[bluestardad]

Wait unit one U.S. Soldier is shown on Video Pleading for their lives while someone cuts off their head! Then you will see how the American People deal with our Elected Officials that have sent us to this war and supported this surge after we voted for withdrawl.