NEW YORK, Dec. 14, 2006
Beyond Hillary, Barack, Rudy And John
As Attention Focuses On 'First-Tier' Candidates, Others Gear Up To Give Them A Fight
-
Clockwise from top left: Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, and Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee are all considering jumping into the most "open" presidential race since the 1920s. (CBS/AP)
-
Who's Who 2008 Democratic Hopefuls Clinton, Obama and Edwards lead the chase for the Democratic nomination.
-
Who's Who 2008 Republican Hopefuls McCain and Giuliani head up the Republican pack chasing the presidency.
The Democrats:
Bill Richardson
New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson's biggest advantage is his resume. He has decades of Washington experience, first as a staffer in the State Department and for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, then as a eight-term U.S. representative, next, briefly, as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and finally as secretary of energy under President Clinton.
Perhaps even more impressive, while in Congress, Richardson served as an emissary for Mr. Clinton, negotiating the release of two hostages with Saddam Hussein and a pilot from North Korea. He also has experience negotiating with Fidel Castro, Slobodan Milosevic and leaders from Nigeria, Sudan and the Taliban. He's been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize four times.
"He's got experience in the toughest international negotiations ever," says Democratic pollster Mark Mellman. "He can say 'I've gone to the table with the bad guys and won.' "
He's now a popular governor of a western state who currently chairs the Democratic Governors' Association.
Most recent national polls have Richardson at 1 or 2 percent. Luntz's focus groups found Richardson to have the "perfect" resume, and most seemed to like his message. But many participants said he wasn't engaging enough as a speaker and some went so far as to call him "boring."
Richardson, 59, is married and has no children. His mother is Mexican and his father is a Boston banker. Richardson lived in Mexico City until he was 13.
His Latino background might also help attract Hispanic voters. But says, Blumenthal, the Latino vote is probably more of a factor in the general election. "In terms of the Democratic primary electorate, there hasn't been a significant Latino vote in Iowa or New Hampshire. Outside of Florida, the Southwest, maybe parts of New York, there aren't many places with a really large Latino base."
Evan Bayh:
Editor’s note: Sen. Bayh announced on Dec. 16 that he will not seek the presidency in 2008, saying he believes the odds of a successful run are too great to overcome.
Like Richardson, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh comes to the race with the advantage of having both Washington and gubernatorial experience. He was a two-term Indiana governor, and has been a senator since 1998. Bayh, 50, is married with two young sons.
The Indiana senator has situated himself as a centrist, stressing, according to his Web site, "fiscal responsibility, lower taxes, job creation and lean government." Bayh chaired the centrist Democratic Leadership Council for four years and is involved bipartisan efforts in Congress.
But Bayh may run into trouble in the primaries for his early strong support of the Iraq war. In the fall of 2002 he pushed for adoption of the resolution that authorized President Bush to begin the war.
Although he hasn't officially declared, Bayh has announced plans to form a fundraising committee and has hired campaign staff.
"He has this very serious team … some very high-powered help," says Blumenthal, noting that he's worked with some of the members. He also has the credentials of being both a popular senator and former governor in a red state, and he's a Midwesterner, which may translate into appeal in Iowa."
Like Richardson, Bayh still lacks name recognition and most recent polls have him between 1 and 3 percent.
Luntz's focus group participants found Bayh likable, with a down-to-earth appeal, but some found him boring. The report concludes, "The theory that he's too moderate in his philosophy or tone was not borne out by what we heard. It's the moderation in his style that is his greatest challenge."
Tom Vilsack:
Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack recently drew a flurry of national attention by becoming the first presidential candidate to formally enter the 2008 race.
As the first Democratic governor in a traditionally red state in three decades, the two-term governor seems positioned to do well in the primaries, especially the all-important first caucus in Iowa. But a Des Moines Register poll taken over the summer ranked Vilsack fourth in Iowa, behind Edwards, Clinton and Kerry. Even if Vilsack does rally to win the caucus, it would be discounted as coming from his home state.
"Vilsack has a significant burden with Iowa coming up. That's a rather difficult situation, it seems to me," says Rothenberg
As to why Vilsack did so badly in the poll, Drake University politics professor Arthur Sanders says that it's hard for a small state governors to convince anyone, even their own constituents that they're presidential material, and, "Many of the activists in the Democratic Party in Iowa have had a distant relationship with him — he's never been one of their favorites."
Unlike state party darling Sen. Tom Harkin, Sanders says, Vilsack is too centrist for party activists, who tend, on a whole, to be more to the left than mainstream Democrats. Vilsack, for example, signed an (admittedly toothless) English-only law, and currently chairs the Democratic Leadership Council.
And even among more mainstream Iowans, Vilsack is a governor who is liked, but not loved, says Goldford. "He is moderately popular. He has no huge fans and he has no huge enemies."
National polls have Vilsack at 1 percent — when he appears at all. In Luntz's focus groups, Vilsack fell at the bottom of the field of Democratic hopefuls, even among Iowans, who liked him, but not as much as the others. He rubbed New Hampshire participants the wrong way with his repeated allusions to religion and his lack experience as anything but a "small state governor."
Vilsack does have some plusses that could give him traction, once he becomes better known, says Goldford. He understands domestic policy well, perhaps to the point of being a little "policy wonkish" and radiates sincerity.
"He comes across as honest and concerned and a straight-shooter," says Goldford.
Vilsack, 55, who is married with two sons, also has a compelling personal story. He was orphaned when he was a few days old. He was soon adopted, but his new mother was addicted to alcohol and prescription drugs. When he was 13 his parents separated and he and his sister were raised by his father.
Vilsack will probably do better in Iowa than his current polling indicates, says Sanders. "Statewide he was elected twice, and his approval ratings have always been reasonable. It'll still be easier for him (in Iowa) no matter what that poll says."
Although it may appear now that none of these second-tiers will win the nomination, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire could change everything. Most of these candidates are polling so low largely because they're unknown, not disliked.
But these first few primaries and caucuses are in small states, points out Sanders, allowing candidates to talk to lots of people directly and get their message out.
And voters in these states are likely to do their best to listen, says Goldford. "I don't want to sound like I fell off the back of a turnip truck, but it really is remarkable to watch folks engage in this process. Those who show up take it very seriously."
If you have doubts, agrees Blumenthal, just look back to the last presidential election. "John Edwards was nowhere in most of these national polls, but he raised enough money to run a credible campaign that Iowans responded to, and he got very popular in Iowa and nearly won. The horserace polls done at this point four years ago would have told you nothing about his potential. Nothing."
And even if one of the second-tiers fails to come in first or even second in Iowa, if he can just rise out of the single digits, the momentum he gains from the jump could make a big difference.
"Raw numbers don't mean anything," says Goldford. "Everyone has the same opponent, and the name is 'expected.' "
"It's one thing to look at the racing form and to pick the favorites," Goldford adds. "But there's a reason they actually run the race — because favorites don't always win."
©MMVI, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.
More From Politics
Best-selling author Mitch Albom on his first nonfiction work since "Tuesdays with Morrie."
- 1
- 2
- next
See all 39 CommentsPosted by Kaliveotin at 12:56 PM : Dec 17, 2006
make tat one up on your own or did you get help from a 3rd grader?
Look I have no problem with Hillary being president, but I'm not supporting her because I don't think she can win. Not because she's a woman, but because she's coming in with waaaaaaay too much baggage. The nomination is Obama's to lose.
less effective against terrorists. With her intellect, she could express have the effort and be more successfull.
a scale we'd see that that few get more money for producing less quality than harvard and yale graduates.
Posted by Kaliveotin at 08:36 PM : Dec 16, 2006
No, he graduated from Columbia and then got his law degree from Harvard (first African-American to be president of the Harvard Law Review). Bush went to Yale.
Hubert Humphrey, Adeli Stephenson, Tom Harkin, etc etc etc. Warner and Bayh, two excellant candidates have already dropped out. Obama would be become "The biggest loser" since McGovern.
Why are so many corporate types and Republicans pushing Obama, (Chris Mathews and so many other
talking heads, almost entirely Republican or Ultra conservative.) because they're scared of Hillary and know Obama wouldn't stand a chance.
If he runs against Hilary his career in the senate will also be sidetracked or even ruined.
Wasn't he educated at the same school as George Bush?
The country keeps going deeper in debt. Cut out all unneeded "pork" and put a little more tax on the rich This bunch of corrupt politicians just wouldn't do it. Throw em all out and lets start over..............................................thuch. reraeverythi
Then a few years in Gitmo to think about all of the s**t that they have served up to the world.
Then a few years in Gitmo to think about all of the s**t that they have served up to the world.
Then a few years in Gitmo to think about all of the s**t that they have served up to the world.
After looking at the photos, you could put the following caption on any picture of Condoleeza Rice looking at Bush: "he's such an effin idiot..."
"You know, one of the hardest parts of my job is to connect Iraq to the war on terror." --George W. Bush, interview with CBS News' Katie Couric, Sept. 6, 2006
Never underestimate the power of the oil elite, the Bush family, and the stupidity of neocons.
- 1
- 2
- next
See all 39 Comments