Here Come The Polls

Dotty Lynch On The New Crop Of Presidential Hopefuls

(CBS)  In a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll conducted December 5 and 6, 17% of young voters said they thought McCain's age would interfere with his ability to serve effectively as president, although 16% of voters over 65 believed that as well.

McCain's advisors say they are not particularly worried about the fact that his vote skews old because the Republican primary electorate skews old as well. But for a candidate who promises a new way of doing business, these polls are a wake-up call that he has work to do to convince the natural constituency for that pitch: young voters.

2. CW: Giuliani is popular with Republicans because they are looking for a moderate.

Giuliani's "voters" as he begins to look at the race tend to be traditional Republicans and conservatives who appear to be attracted to him because of his performance after 9/11 and possibly because of his crimefighter image.

In the Cook/RT Strategies poll he receives 28% of votes of Republicans to 24% for McCain while Independents who say they will vote in a Republican primary pick McCain 31% to 18% for Giuliani. Conservatives split evenly, 25% Giuliani and 24% for McCain although when first AND second choices are given, Giuliani beats McCain 47% to 37% among conservatives.

This may reflect McCain's ongoing struggle to convince the Republican base that he is really one of them following his 2000 campaign blast at the religious right.

Giuliani's opponents are counting on the fact that many conservatives may peel off when they discover the former mayor supports abortion, gay rights and gun control, although as of now, only 11% of Republicans believe Giuliani's positions on issues are too liberal.. McCain and Giuliani are tied with moderates, 24% McCain to 25% for Giuliani.

3. CW: Mitt Romney's Mormonism is going to be a huge problem for him with voters.

This one could be correct. Despite the fact that Romney was elected twice in the heavily Catholic state of Massachusetts, 52% of Republican insiders say his Mormonism will hurt him in the election. The Fox/Opinion Dynamics poll showed that 32% of voters say they are less likely to vote for a Mormon compared to 9% who say it would make their support more likely - a net deficit of 23 points.

There is a lack of familiarity with Mormonism, only 53% know that Mormons are Christians, and 25% believe Mormons hold "unconventional beliefs." The Romney campaign has its work cut out for it but the problem may not be insurmountable with the voters who will measure specific candidates not just their cultural ties.

4. CW: Hillary Clinton can't win.

Recent polls already show her virtually tied with McCain among general election voters. The Cook/RT Strategies poll has her at 42% and McCain at 46%. She tops McCain with women 47% to 40% though he trounces her among male voters 49% to 36%. And among those pesky voters, 18-34, Clinton runs slightly ahead of McCain 46% to 42%.

In a recent Gallup poll where they asked voters to name things they like and dislike about candidates Clinton's negatives outran her positives by 50% to 37%. But her advantage is that the qualities voters like about her are leadership qualities: strength, intelligence and capability. Her negatives tend to be personality-related ("power-hungry," general dislike") and her association with Bill Clinton (too much baggage, riding on her husbands coattails, etc).

While three-quarters of Democratic insiders think another Democrat would be stronger than Clinton (though there is no consensus on who that would be), only 37% of Democratic voters say they worry that she will lose if nominated. As for being a woman, if the polls were taken at face value, that is a net plus of 9 points (21% more likely, 12% less likely to vote for a woman.)

5. CW: Barack Obama is too inexperienced.

Obama's only overt negative now is inexperience but for well-educated Democrats, in particular, that may not be a big problem. In trial heats among those voters - even before the current burst of Obama-mania – the senator from Illinois was almost tied with Hillary Clinton (28% to 27%).

Younger Democrats may also be ready to "turn the page." Clinton and Obama are about even among 18-34 year olds (Clinton 34% to Obama's 31%.) African Americans tilt a little Clinton's way right now, 34% for Clinton to 28% for Obama.

The new polls provide some insight as to why some Republicans have started referring to the Illinois Democrat as Barack Hussein Obama. Forty-five percent of voters say they are less likely to vote for a Muslim candidate. No, Obama isn't a Muslim (he is a member of the Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago), but his father, Barack Hussein Obama Sr., was a Muslim for a while.

Obama has joked about his hard luck having a name that sounded a lot like Osama and that he hoped that was offset by Chicago's Irish voters who perhaps thought his name was O'Bama. He deep-sixed his nickname Barry a while ago but his campaign has to deal with the rest of his name. (Note to spell check: Yes, it is Obama, not Osama). As for the impact of his being an African American, polls show a net plus of 10 points (17% more likely, 7% less likely.)

Ready or not, Campaign '08 and its accompanying Poll-O-Rama have begun. Lucky for Tom Cruise, he isn't running. The Fox Poll that measured attitudes toward Mormons and Muslims also found 53% said they'd be less likely to vote for a Scientologist.

[sunshine_2]

I recently did a little researchon Obaba. Hers is somehing I thought some people might like ot know about the "outsider", or the non-politicla possible candidate.
'Barack Obama was born on August 4th, 1961, in Hawaii. Obama graduated from Columbia University in 1983, and moved to Chicago in 1985 to work for a church-based group seeking to improve living conditions in poor neighborhoods plagued with crime and high unemployment. In 1991, Obama graduated from Harvard Law School.'
His Experience in Public Service & Politicals:
"Barack Obama has dedicated his life to public service as a community organizer, civil rights attorney, and leader in the Illinois state Senate. During his seven years in the Illinois state Senate, Obama worked with both Democrats and Republicans ....
In 2004 Senator Obama was elected as a Senator for Illinois he was sworn into office January 4, 2005. " from Senator's Bio in his Official site.

Seven Years as a State Senator in the Democratic Party and 2 years as an Illinois Senator has made him a very "experienced politician". He does "Know How to Play the Press" & make Public appearances. He is not the 'inexperienced outsider' many people & the press, he knows how the political game is played. He seems to be Running for Office the whole time he has been in office (2 years), rather then actually Working As A Senator, that worries me. A "more polished politician" then many Americans want to believe.

[sunshine_2]

@ Rafterman1
First I will applaud your interest and desire to see more younger people involved in Voting and Public Service.
If you want more Youth in Office, you gota get the young to vote. If you want more young outsiders you gota get people under 50 tired of the current corrupt political system.
Young Senators, we have, younger congress we need. But in National Leadership, I would have toa say that someone who has no Business or Political Leadership Knowledge and Experience would be a very big mistake, for The Nation.
I would be willing to Consider Senator Edwards, if he decided to run. But I think the 'press and the republicn party ran him off," after the Kerry election failed.
H. Ross Paroe was the closest Amerisca has ever come to electing an "outsider" as president and he got 'kicked' by the General Election.
"Out Siders" Bill Gates and Donald Trump have the money and "name" to run for President, would you elect them to Run the Country?
What I don't want is a 30 something year old President playing in the hollywood scene, rather then working with the UN. I want a President with Subsantance, Intigrety, Experience in Governing, and a Service to Duty.

[geraldjerryf]

Mormons are not Christians as Dotty Lynch wrote in her article. They most certainly hold unconventional beliefs. As a Christian who believes that Jesus is the Savior of the world and only way to Heaven (John 14:6), I could not vote for a Mormon. Sorry Mitch Romney! My candidate of choice is Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

[sunshine_2]

More Americans should remember this is Not A Popularity or Beauty Contest, But a Selection of the Which Leader (and Leadership Style) Is Best For America, as well as how it influences how America deals with the World.
I dont want a "Young, Pretty Puppit" as a President, I want a Leader who can communicate effectively with the world and understands the 'World Impacts' in his decisions.

When I see a young Leader rather then a press created 'star' I might give them serious consideration. Until then I have to say that Experience and Leadership comes with Age, you are not Born With It.

When I say Experience: I mean knowledg and understanding, not necessarily "political". I am for an "ouitsider" (non politicians) getting into Public office or even the Presidensy. I do want the same kind of political shake up to our current system. But that Person Needs Real Worldly Experience, Not On the Job Training in How To Be A World Leader. Unless you just want a Pretty Puppet as President.

[sunshine_2]

Ok, to those those wanting that "Young President":

Who will explain to this young President how to do the job, his older Vice President, and the elder "wisemen"? (like Cheny & Rummy to GW.)
Which Country will actually listen to another President who has NO FOREIGN AFFAIRS Knowledge, or respect his Diplomatic Advise?

It is my 'simple belief' that GW. Bush and his administration have Proven that 'lack of political knowledge and foreign affairs' in a President is what has Killed American Diplomacey in the world.
Now America needs Someone With enough Knowledge To Fix It, Not Just A Pretty Face With a Popular Public Image.
After this current Administration, America Needs Real Leadership, to "Regain Respect" in the world. America needs someone who is Working for the People, not just trying to get a lot of Free Press to make the media love him.
I am ready willing and able to Elect a younger person... or a non-politician, but he better be better then the rest of available candidates. Substance matters, in who America elects as President, too often we go for the young, pretty, 'popular' outsider (Clinton, GW. Bush) and we get What?
Leadership and Knowledge matters in being a President (or leading any Democratic Country). Or do you want Congress and the Senate to Direct/influence his decisions, or maybe a "special select group of Old Timers" placed in his staff positions.

[rafterman1]

Sunshine, I understand what you are saying and I can agree with a lot of it. But of course I'm not talking about some barely Constitutional 35 year old taking the big chair. Obama is 45 and while not long on governing experience, he's still old enough to have been around a bit.

Did you ever see the movie "Dave"? Where Kevin Kline is a nobody (who happens to look like the President) and gets the job. Basically, he governed on common sense and fairness, something that is lacking in Washington these days. Now I'm not saying everything is like that idealized movie, but I think it does say that you don't need a big mind or a ton of experience to be good at something, even President. You just need some common sense, fairness - and some good advisors.

If we don't allow outsiders into the Presidency because of "experience", then we are doomed forever to a bunch of political hacks who have mastered the system of cr@p for such a long time. Experience these days in Washington is what the country's problem is, not youth :)

[rafterman1]

He he, don't get me wrong, I wasn't harshing on people over 60 - I hope to get at least as far as that myself one day :)

But I think that older people, especially our leaders, are so set in their ways that it's hard for them to change - or to adapt to the fact that this country is made up of people from 1-100+ who all expect their voices to be heard. Our government has been geared for so long to take care of the interests of the "upper half" of our population (50 ) that the "lower half" (below 50) are forgotten. A young President would start to give the younger people a voice.

And unfortunately, it's just not a matter of getting young people out to vote. It is that, but it's also the 50 crowd who also vote and getting them to trust a young guy like Obama. I don't think a lot of them will.

[sunshine_2]

@ Rafterman1:
I am not against a young man/woman seeking public office. But as a Presidential Candidate you have to show me more. Obama has been running for office sine he was elected two years ago as a Senator. When will he actually do the "Work" he was elected to do? The Press shows him doing books signings, Democratic Fund raisers, Politicking for every other candidate (on his popularity) in mid-term elections. The Press loves him right now, But America does not even "Know Him" or what he actually stands for. What Public Service Jobs Did Obama Have before he got the Senate job by Default? Why not "be a senator" and learn how to "Govern" before you try out the "Hardest Job in America? Would YOU buy stock in a Major company that put a 30 year old in as CEO, as his first leadership role? Would you Want your Armed Services to be Controlled by a man/woman who has no Leadership or Foreign Affairs Experience? Oh, I forgot, we already have one (GW.)

[sunshine_2]

@ Rafterman1:
"To me, an expeirienced politician is one who mastered the art of cr@p. It's time for Obama for the Dems or whoever the Repubs have that's under 50."
Youth does not mean that you "Understand the World", that is what got America into the trouble GW. Bush has put us in Politically. (now GW. is seeking Elder Statesmen to get us out of it). Diplomacy is an "art in education" learned over time, not something you graduate high school with.
Obama is a charismatic young man who seems like he "already knows the art of political cr@p" & getting 'the press' to "Love Him". His 'rock star' like attraction is almost unheard of since JF. Kennedy, when people said America would not elect a Catholic as President. But Kennedy had a lot more experience in Public Service + had Very Energetic and Creative 'Reviving America Views' and policies".

[sunshine_2]

@ Rafterman1:
About Obama: If you asked me, he is very slick and knows how to play the 15+ minutes of fame and name recognition so well ... like Bill Clinton did.
Don't Vote, just on a Youth Factor ... America Actually Needs Leadership NOW!!! More then ever, someone who has some real "World Diplomatic Intentions and Know How" to fix our International Problems. Someone our Armed Forces can Respect for his leadership and experience.