Here Come The Polls

(CBS)  Dotty Lynch is CBSNews.com's Political Points columnist. E-mail your questions and comments to Political Points.

---

There is an old canard that polls at this point in a Presidential campaign are meaningless, that all they measure is name recognition. But in reality, polls about '08 Presidential choices which have come out in the last few weeks are filled with meaning.

The people who are leading today may not be the eventual nominees of their parties, although frontrunners like George W. Bush have been successful in driving others out of the race by parlaying frontrunner status into endorsements and cash.

Similarly, it would be a mistake to conclude that the candidates who have only an asterisk next to their names are fated for oblivion. Just ask Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton about that.

But for candidates planning their campaigns, and reporters who want to understand the political environment, the early polls do offer a fascinating view of where the electorate is at the beginning of a campaign season.

Journalists use polls to describe and analyze the voters; campaigns commission them to formulate strategy. To paraphrase Bobby Kennedy, campaigns don't use polls to ask why - they use polls to figure out why not.

Here are some tidbits from the recent polls that test the conventional wisdom (CW) about the candidates and provide their strategists with enough work to keep them off the street during the holiday season:

1. CW says: John McCain, the maverick, will appeal to Republican voters seeking change.

The recent (November 9-12) Cook Report/ RT Strategies poll shows that McCain still does better with Independents than with traditional Republicans but his support skews old. Among 18-34 year old Republican primary voters, he trails former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani by 34% to 15%.

Even when voters were asked to pick a first and second choice, only 31% of these younger GOP primary voters picked McCain while 52% chose Giuliani. McCain's age could be a factor — he is 70 and in 2008 would be the oldest first term President ever elected — although this may not be the complete explanation.

• 1
• 2
• Next Page »

[sunshine_2]

I recently did a little researchon Obaba. Hers is somehing I thought some people might like ot know about the "outsider", or the non-politicla possible candidate.
'Barack Obama was born on August 4th, 1961, in Hawaii. Obama graduated from Columbia University in 1983, and moved to Chicago in 1985 to work for a church-based group seeking to improve living conditions in poor neighborhoods plagued with crime and high unemployment. In 1991, Obama graduated from Harvard Law School.'
His Experience in Public Service & Politicals:
"Barack Obama has dedicated his life to public service as a community organizer, civil rights attorney, and leader in the Illinois state Senate. During his seven years in the Illinois state Senate, Obama worked with both Democrats and Republicans ....
In 2004 Senator Obama was elected as a Senator for Illinois he was sworn into office January 4, 2005. " from Senator's Bio in his Official site.

Seven Years as a State Senator in the Democratic Party and 2 years as an Illinois Senator has made him a very "experienced politician". He does "Know How to Play the Press" & make Public appearances. He is not the 'inexperienced outsider' many people & the press, he knows how the political game is played. He seems to be Running for Office the whole time he has been in office (2 years), rather then actually Working As A Senator, that worries me. A "more polished politician" then many Americans want to believe.

[sunshine_2]

@ Rafterman1
First I will applaud your interest and desire to see more younger people involved in Voting and Public Service.
If you want more Youth in Office, you gota get the young to vote. If you want more young outsiders you gota get people under 50 tired of the current corrupt political system.
Young Senators, we have, younger congress we need. But in National Leadership, I would have toa say that someone who has no Business or Political Leadership Knowledge and Experience would be a very big mistake, for The Nation.
I would be willing to Consider Senator Edwards, if he decided to run. But I think the 'press and the republicn party ran him off," after the Kerry election failed.
H. Ross Paroe was the closest Amerisca has ever come to electing an "outsider" as president and he got 'kicked' by the General Election.
"Out Siders" Bill Gates and Donald Trump have the money and "name" to run for President, would you elect them to Run the Country?
What I don't want is a 30 something year old President playing in the hollywood scene, rather then working with the UN. I want a President with Subsantance, Intigrety, Experience in Governing, and a Service to Duty.

[geraldjerryf]

Mormons are not Christians as Dotty Lynch wrote in her article. They most certainly hold unconventional beliefs. As a Christian who believes that Jesus is the Savior of the world and only way to Heaven (John 14:6), I could not vote for a Mormon. Sorry Mitch Romney! My candidate of choice is Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

[sunshine_2]

More Americans should remember this is Not A Popularity or Beauty Contest, But a Selection of the Which Leader (and Leadership Style) Is Best For America, as well as how it influences how America deals with the World.
I dont want a "Young, Pretty Puppit" as a President, I want a Leader who can communicate effectively with the world and understands the 'World Impacts' in his decisions.

When I see a young Leader rather then a press created 'star' I might give them serious consideration. Until then I have to say that Experience and Leadership comes with Age, you are not Born With It.

When I say Experience: I mean knowledg and understanding, not necessarily "political". I am for an "ouitsider" (non politicians) getting into Public office or even the Presidensy. I do want the same kind of political shake up to our current system. But that Person Needs Real Worldly Experience, Not On the Job Training in How To Be A World Leader. Unless you just want a Pretty Puppet as President.

[sunshine_2]

Ok, to those those wanting that "Young President":

Who will explain to this young President how to do the job, his older Vice President, and the elder "wisemen"? (like Cheny & Rummy to GW.)
Which Country will actually listen to another President who has NO FOREIGN AFFAIRS Knowledge, or respect his Diplomatic Advise?

It is my 'simple belief' that GW. Bush and his administration have Proven that 'lack of political knowledge and foreign affairs' in a President is what has Killed American Diplomacey in the world.
Now America needs Someone With enough Knowledge To Fix It, Not Just A Pretty Face With a Popular Public Image.
After this current Administration, America Needs Real Leadership, to "Regain Respect" in the world. America needs someone who is Working for the People, not just trying to get a lot of Free Press to make the media love him.
I am ready willing and able to Elect a younger person... or a non-politician, but he better be better then the rest of available candidates. Substance matters, in who America elects as President, too often we go for the young, pretty, 'popular' outsider (Clinton, GW. Bush) and we get What?
Leadership and Knowledge matters in being a President (or leading any Democratic Country). Or do you want Congress and the Senate to Direct/influence his decisions, or maybe a "special select group of Old Timers" placed in his staff positions.

[sunshine_2]

@ Rafterman1:
I am not against a young man/woman seeking public office. But as a Presidential Candidate you have to show me more. Obama has been running for office sine he was elected two years ago as a Senator. When will he actually do the "Work" he was elected to do? The Press shows him doing books signings, Democratic Fund raisers, Politicking for every other candidate (on his popularity) in mid-term elections. The Press loves him right now, But America does not even "Know Him" or what he actually stands for. What Public Service Jobs Did Obama Have before he got the Senate job by Default? Why not "be a senator" and learn how to "Govern" before you try out the "Hardest Job in America? Would YOU buy stock in a Major company that put a 30 year old in as CEO, as his first leadership role? Would you Want your Armed Services to be Controlled by a man/woman who has no Leadership or Foreign Affairs Experience? Oh, I forgot, we already have one (GW.)

[sunshine_2]

@ Rafterman1:
"To me, an expeirienced politician is one who mastered the art of cr@p. It's time for Obama for the Dems or whoever the Repubs have that's under 50."
Youth does not mean that you "Understand the World", that is what got America into the trouble GW. Bush has put us in Politically. (now GW. is seeking Elder Statesmen to get us out of it). Diplomacy is an "art in education" learned over time, not something you graduate high school with.
Obama is a charismatic young man who seems like he "already knows the art of political cr@p" & getting 'the press' to "Love Him". His 'rock star' like attraction is almost unheard of since JF. Kennedy, when people said America would not elect a Catholic as President. But Kennedy had a lot more experience in Public Service + had Very Energetic and Creative 'Reviving America Views' and policies".

[sunshine_2]

@ Rafterman1:
About Obama: If you asked me, he is very slick and knows how to play the 15+ minutes of fame and name recognition so well ... like Bill Clinton did.
Don't Vote, just on a Youth Factor ... America Actually Needs Leadership NOW!!! More then ever, someone who has some real "World Diplomatic Intentions and Know How" to fix our International Problems. Someone our Armed Forces can Respect for his leadership and experience.

[sunshine_2]

@marcodele
..."Jeb Bush will be the republican nominee. A lackluster primary and apathetic core voter base will ..."

Even the Repiblican Party is not stupid enough to NOT SEE the "Bush Baggage" that Jeb would carry in 2008.
They alrweady know that America wont turst Jeb (GW.'s Lair Issues), no matter what or how he says it... too much like his bother in "image".
'If' Jeb ever coveted the President's Office, he will have to wait at leat till 2012, to make a go for it. Like GW. Bush waited for Clinton, who defeated his Father, once Clinton had Completed his Two Terms and could not run again.

Anybody who realy believes the Bush Family Name has that much "Kennedy Clout", in the party, is a little over optimistic. And America does not like Monarchs, or Imperial Family Rule, 2 Bushes as President is enough for one generation.

[teddebare]

McCasin will not win due to his chameleon appearance. Rudy can forget due to his immoral daliances - while his wife and kids livced in the State mansion he lieved downtown with this...
Hillary although a very intelligent lady has to get past too many haters.

The next President is not among the current leads.