2007 Forecast: More Hurricanes Than Usual

(CBS/AP)  The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should have above-average activity, with three major hurricanes and a good chance that at least one of them will make landfall, top hurricane researchers said Friday.

Colorado State forecasters Philip Klotzbach and William Gray predicted 14 named storms and a total of seven hurricanes next year.

He and fellow researcher Philip Klotzbach said there is a 64 percent chance that one of the major hurricanes — with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater — will come ashore. The long-term average probability is 52 percent, they said.

Still, they said fewer hurricanes are likely to make landfall next year than in the devastating 2005 season, which had 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes, four of which hit the U.S. The worst was Katrina, which leveled parts of the Gulf Coast.

The 2006 season had nine named storms and five hurricanes, two of them major. That was considered a "near normal" season but fell short of predictions by Gray and government scientists. None hit the U.S. Atlantic coast — only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945.

Gray and Klotzbach said last month that a surprise late El Nino contributed to the calmer June-to-November hurricane season this year.

El Nino — a warming in the Pacific Ocean — has far-reaching effects that include changing wind patterns in the eastern Atlantic, which can disrupt the formation of hurricanes there, Gray said.

The team said Friday those conditions are likely to dissipate before the next season but Klotzbach cautioned, "this is an early prediction."

The researchers said they believe the Atlantic basin is in an active hurricane cycle, despite the calm 2006 season.

"This active cycle is expected to continue for another decade or two, at which time we should enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the quarter-century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925," their report said.

The Colorado State researchers refused to blame the recent increase in hurricane activity on global warmer. "We should not read too much into the two hurricane seasons of 2004-2005," the report states. "This large increase in Atlantic major hurricanes ... is not directly related to global temperature increase." It also points out other historic periods with as much, or more, hurricane activity.

Tropical Storm Risk, a London-based consortium of weather, insurance and risk-management experts, on Thursday forecast an active 2007 season, with up to 16 tropical storms including nine hurricanes, four of them intense.

[ceres5]

Where is the origin of this information, the insurance companies? The same thing was said for 2006, and it was completely wrong. What was true was the obscene rate increases for homeowner's insurance. My rate went up from $1,900 to $5,400 in one year. For many other people, the hit was a lot worse, up to 800%. We will see in a few months that the earnings of the insurance companies will be similar as the one for Exxon, in the tens of billions of dollars. The salaries and bonuses of countless executives, will be measured in the millions of dollars. What a huge rip off is taking place in America. Where are the true leaders in the U.S. Congress, trying to stop this rape of the American middle class? So far, I have not seen one.

[katia327]

I'll believe it when I see it.

The 'dire' predictions for 2006 were wrong. Only when we were well into the hurricane season and the hurricanes didn't develop like they expected, did they suddenly say, it's not going to be as bad. And this was BEFORE their supposed discovery of El Nino.

Like I said. I'll believe it when I see it.

oh sure...like we are going to listen them again, it was said we would get 15 or more for the 2006 season, you can't predict the future, who is paying these people?