Al Qaeda May Be Plotting Holiday Attacks

Exclusive: Holiday Travel Season Violence In Europe Would Target Trains, Planes, Al Qaeda Suspects Say

(CBS)  This story was written for CBSNews.com by Pakistan-based journalist Farhan Bokhari and CBS News correspondent Sheila MacVicar.

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Intelligence agencies have been warned that al Qaeda may be planning to attack air and rail travel in Europe in actions that may occur during the busy holiday travel season, CBS News has learned exclusively.

In separate interviews with Arab and other intelligence sources, CBS News has been told that the warnings come from interrogations of al Qaeda suspects who recently left Afghanistan and Pakistan.

"One suspect said plans for repeating the Heathrow attempt (a reference to the failed 'liquid bomb' plot interrupted in August) were all prepared. It is now a matter of taking action," said one Arab official who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak to the media. "Al Qaeda's strategy appears to be raising the pressure in Europe."

In a move that has been puzzling intelligence agencies, al Qaeda has been withdrawing well-trained Arab fighters from the mountains and battlefields of Afghanistan.

In detailed interviews with Arab diplomats, intelligence sources and Pakistani and western officials, Arab members have been leaving Afghanistan for the past six months while handing over its militant activities in Afghanistan to that country's resurgent Taliban movement.

The new information helps to shed fresh light on a key mystery at the heart of al Qaeda's decision, first reported by CBS News in September, to withdraw its Arab members, fighters and logisticians from Afghanistan.

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Read an exceprt of Katie Couric's interview with counterterrorism expert John Brennan about CBS News' report.

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Rohan Gunaratna, head of terrorism research at Singapore's Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies, and the author of "Inside Al Qaeda; Global Network of Terror," said "We have seen that several hundred, perhaps five to six hundred al Qaeda members who were located on the Afghan-Pakistan border, have now left."

Gunaratna adds that these al Qaeda members have returned "to their own home countries, particularly to Iraq, and also to other Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia and Yemen. We have seen a shift in Al Qaeda's thinking, in strategy."

Some of those who returned to their native countries in the Arab world and were caught have told investigators that the orders only specified al Qaeda's decision for the Arabs to depart Afghanistan.

The choice of a route was left to al Qaeda's local commanders in Afghanistan, according to information given by arrested suspects to their interrogators.

There is no consensus on the approximate numbers of Arabs who remain in Afghanistan, though Arab diplomats with responsibilities of tracking al Qaeda said, they suspect the number of active Arab fighters to run in the several hundreds in spring this year.

"Now, maybe there are a couple of hundred people left in Afghanistan, maybe a bit more or a bit less," said one unnamed Arab diplomat, who says it was "impossible to tell the numbers accurately. But there's enough information to say that al Qaeda's Arab component in Afghanistan is very scaled down."

The first indication of Afghan-based al Qaeda Arabs beginning to leave for Iraq came almost two years ago in deep background briefings given by Pakistani intelligence officials selectively to senior journalists. However, the movement had been long considered voluntary and more an act of choice by individual fighters or small groups of militants than a decision by Al Qaeda's high command.

A senior Arab diplomat said intelligence officers in his country thoroughly interrogated a group of men in their 20s and 30s who were caught earlier this summer after they returned from Afghanistan.

"The standard answer was: We don't know why we were told to leave. The orders were very specific — leave Afghanistan now without wasting much time." The diplomat spoke on the condition that neither his identity nor that of his country would be revealed.

Intelligence analysts and security sources say one reason why al Qaeda might feel confident in leaving the battlefield in Afghanistan largely in the hands of the Afghan Taliban is that the Taliban have shown new skill and ferocity in fighting U.S. and coalition forces.

"As you can see, the increasing ferocity of these attacks has put the spotlight more on the Taliban," said one western diplomat. "When we speak of Afghanistan these days, we talk mostly of the Taliban. In the Afghan context, al Qaeda is now talked about infrequently. Does this not tell you something about a trend, that maybe al Qaeda as we saw it once being led by its Arab fighters in Afghanistan, has become less of a reality as time goes by?" he asked.

"There is very little al Qaeda Arabs can do today in the Afghanistan/Pakistan theater," said Gunaratna. "Firstly, they will be spotted and they will be killed or captured. Second, today in Afghanistan Arabs are not really required to fight the coalition and U.S. forces, because the Taliban are very well trained and very well motivated."

Al Qaeda Arabs did provide suicide bombers — until now, a role Afghan Taliban were unwilling to undertake. In recent months, however, as Taliban propaganda videos have shown, Afghans have signed wills and undertaken suicide missions.

"There are two ways of looking at what is going on between the Taliban and al Qaeda," said a Pakistani security official who asked not to be named. "Either it's the case that the Taliban have become so strong by virtue of sharply rising ethnic 'Pushtoon' support to their cause that al Qaeda is overshadowed and wants to leave Afghanistan.

"Or it's a matter that al Qaeda sees its work for certain being carried forward by the Taliban and has therefore decided to leave. Whatever the motive, the fact is, al Qaeda's Arab wings seem to be leaving," the Pakistani official said.

[grazinggoat]

Did somebody say this is new news?

Of course they will as long as we are still stepping on their land in IRAQ and Afghanistan. Lets get outta there.

[one_american]

The Caliphate is coming!

This is nothing new; France has already had Arab youths torching 200 cars every night in Paris for the last year.

Things are only going to get worse for Europe if they don't start fighting terrorism with an iron fist.

Deporting Muslim rights groups from Europe would be a good start.

You can never appease terrorists.

[one_american]

grazinggoat:

How naive you are.

[blazercoach1]

Sure, grazinggoat, then they'll just leave us alone like they were doing on Sept. 10, 2001.

[bellal-2009]

Rosie says,"we shouldn't fear the terrorists they are just like us, moms and dads." Let's send Rosie over there to talk to them. Maybe the Taliban would a appreciate a woman like her.

[bellal-2009]

Rosie,probably thinks the death squads in Darfur are just nice dads that need a good talking to. The Darfur people hve nothing to fear. The American people have nothing to fear. They are just moms and dads trying to be heard.

[j-whitman]

Who was the idiot who kept saying his policies have made us safer ???

[gatortracks]

AS A SOLDIER CURRENTLY IN IRAQ FOR MY SECOND TOUR I CAN SEE THE LINES BEING DRAWN IN AMERICA. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT AS AMERICANS TO UNITE.AS AMERICANS WE FACE A GREATER THREAT TO OUR FREEDOM THAN EVER BEFORE IN AMERICAN HISTORY. THE ISLAMIC JIHAD IS THE IMPITIMY OF EVIL. WE MUST NOT BURY OUR HEADS IN THE SAND, THE WAR IN IRAQ IS THE WAR ON TERROR! THANKFULLY THERE ARE THOSE OF OF WHO ARE WILLING TO DEFEND THE FREEDOM THAT WAS PAID IF FULL BY THE BLOOD OF AMERICANS SINCE THE BIRTH OF OUR COUNTRY. GOD BLESS THOSE WHO STAND IN DEFENCE OF OUR NATION. FOR THE LEFT, TAKE A DEEP LOOK AT YOURSELF, YOU MAY FIND A SORRY SHAMEFUL COWARD INSIDE, ITS NOT TOO LATE TO PULL YOUR HEAD FROM THE SAND AND FACE DOWN THE ENEMY WITH US, UNITED WE STAND,DIVIDED WE FALL. IF YOU DONT AGREE WITH THIS, THEN PERHAPS YOU SHOULD FACE THE SHAME OF YOUR PERSPECTIVE, FACE THE COWARD INSIDE, AND RELIZE, WE ARE AT WAR, THE ENEMY MUST BE FOUGHT TILL THEY ARE BROKEN AT THE LEGS, CRIPPLE THE ENEMIES OF FREEDOM SO THEY WALK NO MORE. AMERICA FEAR NOT, THE US MILITARY WILL FIGHT AND WIN IN ALL FRONTS OF THIS BATTLE, THIS WAR, THE MOST IMPORTANT WAR OF AMERICAN HISTORY. FOR THE LEFT, YOU CAN HIDE AND COWAR AND SYMPATHISE WITH THE ENEMY, BUT KNOW THIS, THERE ARE THOSE WHO WILL NOT TOLERATE THE ISLAMIC JIHAD, WE WILL BREAK THEM AT THEIR LEGS, THEY WILL FALL INTO THE PITS THEY DUG THEMSELVES...GOD BLESS THE TROOPS, GOD BLESS AMERICA.

[pakaal]

So THIS is where y'all are hanging out! The politics section got boring so here we are in the World section!

So, let's see, BellaL thinks the people of Iraq don't have moms and dads, One_American thinks grazinggoat is naive for making the same connection our intelligence agencies made about our interference in Iraq making the situation worse, and FARTKNOCKER2 thinks Muslim intentions are "cleat".

The sweeping generalizations about anything and everything that doesn't fit into y'all's preconceptions about the rest of the planet including your fellow Americans should be dismissed outright would be funny, if it wasn't so depressing.

[duffyn]

You can also militarily stay in every country there is and their (terrorist) buiness will increase. They are completely xenophobic (fear and hatred of foreigners). There is also and endless supply of young muslim men who will go to fight to kick out any foreign armies (they come from India, Pakistan, etc). The only military solution would be to exterminate almost everyone on the continent. I don't think that's going to happen. This is a very complicated situation and is going to take a lot of political, carrots, sticks, etc to get solved. Initially there was to be carrot side on the bush agenda to get these available young men on a more positve course, but that never happend.....

[j-whitman]

gatortracks,,, Maybe you should tell Bush we are at war... It's totally obvious WAR PROFITEERING,, POLITICING,, CREATING MORE TERRORISTS,, CUTTING MILITARY FUNDING -- IS FAR MORE IMPORTANT

[j-whitman]

gatortracks,,, While you are asleep in your hooch,, Bush is allowing the destruction of our country for PROFIT

[duffyn]

I certainly think no left wing person who is suggesting we pull out of Iraq need feel any shame. Actually John Murtha is suggesting that and I certainly belive him over many others. No one involved is saying we just cut & run. If it will result in a better solution to move the troops to bordering countries or maybe have them secure the borders while the Iraqis fight for their own freedom, there's nothing chicken or shameful about that. How smart is it to have 150,000 guys up against basically an unlimited number of people hiding and taking pot shots at them?

[pakaal]

gatortracks, I completely support all our troops overseas, but respectfully, you should keep in mind that the C in C makes the policies in connection with the Congress, and you, like the rest of us, have to live with those policies.

I for one believe that we never should have pulled out of Afghanistan before the job was done, leaving Osama Bin Laden alive and well, and a lot of others in the US believe the same way. I'm hoping that with some balance in the US government now, Bush will work with the armed forces to implement a military policy that assures us security while minimizing interference. And hopefully we'll reinstate the group Bush closed down that was searching for Bin Laden and bring him to justice.

[duffyn]

And, by the way, I totally appreciate our soldiers and will vote every chance I get to increase their benefits. Some may note that republicans recently tried to reduce benefits to veterans.

[j-whitman]

Bush is allowing millions of foreign people into America with his radical changes of our Visa Programs.. So much for our Educational System.

[j-whitman]

Duffynight,,,, The GOP actually has a verifiable record of reducing benifits.

[vessius]

There are absolutes that we continually fail to see as fact, and in doing so we create risk for further attacks.
1. They(the terrorists) honestly believe that we should die because we are not muslim.
2. They are funded by nations states,most notably Iran and Syria,whom not only think as they due, but aid them in whatever ways they can.
3. They do not care, and are not more or less likely to attack us, by a change in party control in either white house are congress. Anyone whom believes that the democrats are our saviours in the war on terror are just as foolish as those whom believed the same in the republicans.
4. The believe they are at war with us, and they conduct themselves as such. Despite the loss of so many americans on our own soil, we still dont conduct ourselves in that way.War is war, and if we want to win, and by that i mean survive as a nation and a society, then we must silence partisanship for now, for real, and due as a nation those things that make for winning a war,whatever that may be.

[j-whitman]

DEMOCRACY IS DUE TO THE NEED FOR SOCIAL & ECONOMIC STABILITY -- NOT FORCE, OR AGRESSIVE POLICIES

[j-whitman]

WANT TO DEFEAT TERRORISM ABROAD ?? -- FIRST UNDERSTAND HOW TO DEFEAT DOMESTIC TERRORISM AT HOME.

[duffyn]

I agree on the silencing partisanship! :):):)

[pakaal]

"War is war, and if we want to win, and by that i mean survive as a nation and a society, then we must silence partisanship for now, for real, and due as a nation those things that make for winning a war,whatever that may be."

Definitely absolutes, you're right vessius. So for example, you believe that the "12,000 Terrorists" described in this article have any chance of destroying the US as a nation and a society? If so, how?

Also, "whatever that may be" is pretty ominous. I keep hearing these sort of phrases and I wonder. If we do exactly the same things they do, that is "level the playing field" as the hawks say, where's our moral high ground? How do we then say we're better than they are? I don't want to die, but I also don't want to stay alive if it means abandoning the principles that made me and America strong in the first place. Nor do I believe for a second the terrorists can possibly take over the US.

[duffyn]

Actually no, we do need some partisanship! It really really helps to have one side always picking on the other and keeping them honest! But like almost everything, moderation is the key. heh heh I have a lot of hope based on what I read here. We'll eventually lick this problem like we do all of them by working together!

[pakaal]

Also, vessius, what you claim as "absolutes" are actually "gross generalizations".

[vessius]

thanks duff.

Bush this, Bush that, before him it was Clinton this, Clinton that.
The hatred they demostrate, in MURDERING EVERYONE THEY CAN, will not simply go way if we rollback taxcuts for the wealthy, or if we impeach the president, or ban gay marriage, or affirm its right, or whatever your favorite liberal, or conservative battelcry might be.
i ASSURE YOU, AND IN NO UNCERTAIN TERMS, THAT AN al-quaeda TERRORIST WOULD NOT ASK FOR FOR YOUR DNC LAPEL PIN, OR YOUR RNC MONEY-CLIP, BEFORE HE PROCEEDED TO SEPERATE YOUR HEAD FORM YOUR SHOULDERS.
i Say again, we.... are..... at War.
Where, in the history of man, can you find an enemy more absolute, to all of civilzation.

[duffyn]

Well.. One more thing. Why does the media always give these guys (terrorists) a platform by publishing everything they say???? I frankly don't give a *** what Bin L. or any of them have to say. I'm a little suspicious that big media does this to stir things up. After all, war & terrorism sells more news. Gee, if we think we're going to be attacked we'll check their da** web site 100 times a day!!

[vessius]

"Definitely absolutes, you're right vessius. So for example, you believe that the "12,000 Terrorists" described in this article have any chance of destroying the US as a nation and a society? If so, how?"

19 terrorist.... 3000+ dead. do the math.

[grazinggoat]

...Continued
So pull your head from the sand and start looking around to see there are other nations on earth and there are other beliefs and way of viewing life. Learn from the past, that to be arrogant never pays off on the long run.

America HAS BEEN BUILT with just blood sacrificed in Just causes. The last cause of IRAQ invasion, is fricking far from just. So get out of there. Time will tell and this adminstration will bear this shameful part of Human history.

And for sure GOD BLESS A JUST AMERICA (a majority of Americans actually see it)

[grazinggoat]

Dear gatortracks
GOD BLESS AMERICA, as long as Amercia is not bullying the world, as long as long America is not driven by some nasty guys such as the ones we just kicked out of the House, Congress, etc...
As long as America is not causing destruction and desolation. As long as America is looking forward to be indulgent with other other nations who are pulling out of misery.

Stop telling and (bullying) the American people, by pretending, you, army guys are paying the price of freedom. Stop saying you are granting the freedom Americans are enjoying. Freedom is given by God to every Human on earth. It's all written on the United Nations Charter of rights. This is a natural and innate right granted by the Creator of all Humans, to all Humans... not only to Americans, Europeans, or Westerners.
See continued please...

[vessius]

Also, vessius, what you claim as "absolutes" are actually "gross generalizations".
I see...

Here is an example of semantics to serve a point of view.
Does anyone here doubt the wnat to kill us.
Does anyone here truly believe Irane would not want to see us destroyed..( Numerous exacting quotes from thier leadership affiRm this.)
they attacked us under Clinton... and again under Bush..
What, i asked you would have happened to Britain circa 1940, or isreal in any of the nurmerous wars of annihilation that have been efforted against them, if they called such attack "GROSS GENERALIZATIONS"

[j-whitman]

vessius,,, Take a look around,, looks to me like all terrorist have to do,, is just what they are doing.. Wht affects Europe also affects us, what threatens England also threatens us, Bush is causing Terrorism to grow.. Bush is also destroying America with his other policies such as trade, immigration, & WAR PROFITEERING

[j-whitman]

vessius,,, IT'S NOT OUR FREEDOMS THEY HATE -- IT'S OUR FOREIGN POLICIES

[vessius]

YES YES YES BUSH IS THE REASON i see now....

so munich 1972, beirut 1982 wtc 1993 cole 2000 of course after all ALL OF THESE WERE THE FAULT OF THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION,

enough they attacked us not because a republican was in office.... or a democrat...THey simply hate us and wish us dead,, and those whom would have tried to rationalize, and find by that i mean find opportunity for appropriate partisan blame, with say the nazis, or the Huns, or the crusaders, still suffered the same deaths...

[pakaal]

"19 terrorist.... 3000+ dead. do the math."

Wow, you actually believe 12,000 terrorists are going to infiltrate the US and kill 300 million people?! With 150,000 of the worlds best troops, all we've done in Iraq is make the problem worse. And you think 10% of that amount could kill all Americans?!

Sorry, I can understand fear and frustration - and I for one would love to see us get back to Afghanistan and get Bin Laden. But if you're actually going to stick to your belief that somehow a bunch of terrorists are going to be able to literally kill all Americans, yeah, that's a little far out. Logistically alone, you'd need to completely destroy our civil infrastructure, which would require decades of infiltration, our government in its entirety, requiring a plan at least 10x that of 9/11, all our major cities, every citizen living in the US (because I like you would be out there shooting back)....

Your argument is untenable.

[vessius]

the reason they hate is thier own rulers keep them poor, keep them without any purpose in all thier lives except thier faith, which the proceed to poison with america is the great satan etc.
i feel i should clarify .. for hundreds of years, islam existed without an overwhelming need to destroy every infidel that lives. Islam, is like other major faiths, benign, philanthropic, charitable, and peaceful. these leaders want power and glory, tow things that have caused death long before religion did and will seek even if every american soldier is brought home from everywhere on the globe.

[j-whitman]

vessius,,, Again,, It's our Foreign Policies,,,, We created tha state of Isreal against the advice of our allies in WW2,, Our foreign policies have only amplified that anger against us, namely our own ability to recognize that fact... Now we have COLD WAR FOREIGN POLICIES ON STEROIDS & VIAGRA,,, I suggest you go back & look at the history of those terrorist attacks & the reasons.

[j-whitman]

vessius,, sorry, out own inability to recognize the damage our foreign policies have done.

[vessius]

Sorry, I can understand fear and frustration - and I for one would love to see us get back to Afghanistan and get Bin Laden. But if you're actually going to stick to your belief that somehow a bunch of terrorists are going to be able to literally kill all Americans, yeah, that's a little far out. Logistically alone, you'd need to completely destroy our civil infrastructure, which would require decades of infiltration, our government in its entirety, requiring a plan at least 10x that of 9/11, all our major cities, every citizen living in the US (because I like you would be out there shooting back)....

all well said.. and no i did say they would kill all americans, just that they wanted to/ but so they only kill 40,000 thousand or so.. hmmm from a war stand point not so bad..

i think you get my point.

[pakaal]

In 1953, the CIA toppled Iran's democratically elected leader Mohammed Mossadeq, leading to polarizing public opinion against the US, and polarizing national fervor leading to the Shah taking control, then Khomeini. We've supported Iran, then Iraq, then Iran, then Iraq, and now we're threatening both countries. No wonder they want to kill us. What's your solution to the problems WE'VE created, vessius?

[tomflint69]

They are gona kill us and no one is here for our help. Think I may start reading Bible :(
forgive me Lord.

[j-whitman]

vessius,, I understand what you're saying... They really don't need to do much more,, this administration is definatly helping thier cause though.

[pakaal]

"Does anyone here doubt the wnat to kill us."

Besides the typos, this is clearly a gross generalization.

That's right I disagree. "They" don't want to kill "us". Most of "them" being farmers, truck drivers, police, whatever, would rather just be left alone to live out their lives without constant US interference in their sovereignty.

[j-whitman]

Pakaal is correct,, we also created the conditions in South America for Penochet to do what he did,,, also in Nicarauga, Panama, El Salvador,,, All the same people Bush now wraps himself with now, WE FAIL TO LEARN..... DEJA VU

[vessius]

If a Burgular were in your house, would you sit down and have a dialogue on why he became a burgular, and if you found them reasonable causes, then i guess all your things he could have , even your life, i mean after all he had GOOD REASON.

This is EXACTLY THE POINT!!! we rationalize thier hatred and they wont, ever.
We as a nation have caused problems, yes, but those that believe that WE HAVE GIVEN GOOD REASON to kill us, because something happened 53 years ago, perhaps should go tell the terroist in person, im sure they will perfectly safe in doing so.

[pakaal]

"no i did say they would kill all americans, just that they wanted to/ but so they only kill 40,000 thousand or so.. hmmm from a war stand point not so bad.. i think you get my point."

Your point being that you're prescient and know that 40,000 people are going to be killed. Somehow.

And for the record, you said we're in a fight for survival "as a nation and as a society". Anything less than the complete toppling of the USA cannot lead to the destruction of our nation and society.

By the way, terrorism is not a new thing, we're not facing a new enemy, just that it's new to us - kind of. And terrorism is done to achieve terror. If you give into the "Us vs Them" mentality you've already won. That's precisely what they're trying to do.

[j-whitman]

vessius,, They would probably tell you to stay for dinner,,,, Try going over there with a sign that reads "We Are Making You Safer", see how long you last.

[pakaal]

"If a Burgular were in your house...."

One, a burglar isn't a terrorist, two the burglar is in MY house, while WE are in the Iraqi houses, three if there WAS a burglar in my house I wouldn't immediately bomb all the houses in his neighborhood just because they lived near him....

"This is EXACTLY THE POINT!!! we rationalize thier hatred and they wont, ever."

Yeah, that's why we're better than they are, and when we help the REGULAR PEOPLE out there in these places we pull the rug out from the idealogues feet and they lose power and support. Look at what Hezbollah does in Lebanon - why do the Lebanese not rise up against them? because they do good for the people. If Israel had offered to help rebuild, it might have been less of a complete failure.

"because something happened 53 years ago"

So, there's a statute of limitations on patriotism? You think that the people who suffered and died in the Shah's and the Khomeini regime should "get over it?"

[j-whitman]

pakaal,,, Actually we have had terrorism in America since it's beginning,, it would help to understand domestic terrorism... Englands King George said we where terrorists,, and we where, & did engage in terrorist acts against the Crown... attacks from KKK,, our overly religious attacks on abortion clinics, PayPal office bombing, Oklahoma Federal Building bombing,, gang warfare, drug wars, etc,,,, ALL DOMESTIC TERRORISM

[vessius]

at last the true colors showed . hezbollah does good for the people.

that says all that is needed.. so if i have lost someone, a friend, to hezbollah. or in 9/11
then it is because we were the evil one, and they(THE TERRORISTS) were patriots.

soooo it is okay for terroist like hezbollah to kill if the do good for the people.

[j-whitman]

vessius,,, That's not a very good comparison.. But, now that you mention it,, Hezballah was actually participating in the electorial process (the beginnings of democracy). Hezballah actually did a better job for thier people than our own FEMA has..