Al Qaeda May Be Plotting Holiday Attacks

Exclusive: Holiday Travel Season Violence In Europe Would Target Trains, Planes, Al Qaeda Suspects Say

(CBS)  This story was written for CBSNews.com by Pakistan-based journalist Farhan Bokhari and CBS News correspondent Sheila MacVicar.

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Intelligence agencies have been warned that al Qaeda may be planning to attack air and rail travel in Europe in actions that may occur during the busy holiday travel season, CBS News has learned exclusively.

In separate interviews with Arab and other intelligence sources, CBS News has been told that the warnings come from interrogations of al Qaeda suspects who recently left Afghanistan and Pakistan.

"One suspect said plans for repeating the Heathrow attempt (a reference to the failed 'liquid bomb' plot interrupted in August) were all prepared. It is now a matter of taking action," said one Arab official who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak to the media. "Al Qaeda's strategy appears to be raising the pressure in Europe."

In a move that has been puzzling intelligence agencies, al Qaeda has been withdrawing well-trained Arab fighters from the mountains and battlefields of Afghanistan.

In detailed interviews with Arab diplomats, intelligence sources and Pakistani and western officials, Arab members have been leaving Afghanistan for the past six months while handing over its militant activities in Afghanistan to that country's resurgent Taliban movement.

The new information helps to shed fresh light on a key mystery at the heart of al Qaeda's decision, first reported by CBS News in September, to withdraw its Arab members, fighters and logisticians from Afghanistan.

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Read an exceprt of Katie Couric's interview with counterterrorism expert John Brennan about CBS News' report.

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Rohan Gunaratna, head of terrorism research at Singapore's Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies, and the author of "Inside Al Qaeda; Global Network of Terror," said "We have seen that several hundred, perhaps five to six hundred al Qaeda members who were located on the Afghan-Pakistan border, have now left."

Gunaratna adds that these al Qaeda members have returned "to their own home countries, particularly to Iraq, and also to other Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia and Yemen. We have seen a shift in Al Qaeda's thinking, in strategy."

Some of those who returned to their native countries in the Arab world and were caught have told investigators that the orders only specified al Qaeda's decision for the Arabs to depart Afghanistan.

The choice of a route was left to al Qaeda's local commanders in Afghanistan, according to information given by arrested suspects to their interrogators.

There is no consensus on the approximate numbers of Arabs who remain in Afghanistan, though Arab diplomats with responsibilities of tracking al Qaeda said, they suspect the number of active Arab fighters to run in the several hundreds in spring this year.

"Now, maybe there are a couple of hundred people left in Afghanistan, maybe a bit more or a bit less," said one unnamed Arab diplomat, who says it was "impossible to tell the numbers accurately. But there's enough information to say that al Qaeda's Arab component in Afghanistan is very scaled down."

The first indication of Afghan-based al Qaeda Arabs beginning to leave for Iraq came almost two years ago in deep background briefings given by Pakistani intelligence officials selectively to senior journalists. However, the movement had been long considered voluntary and more an act of choice by individual fighters or small groups of militants than a decision by Al Qaeda's high command.

A senior Arab diplomat said intelligence officers in his country thoroughly interrogated a group of men in their 20s and 30s who were caught earlier this summer after they returned from Afghanistan.

"The standard answer was: We don't know why we were told to leave. The orders were very specific — leave Afghanistan now without wasting much time." The diplomat spoke on the condition that neither his identity nor that of his country would be revealed.

Intelligence analysts and security sources say one reason why al Qaeda might feel confident in leaving the battlefield in Afghanistan largely in the hands of the Afghan Taliban is that the Taliban have shown new skill and ferocity in fighting U.S. and coalition forces.

"As you can see, the increasing ferocity of these attacks has put the spotlight more on the Taliban," said one western diplomat. "When we speak of Afghanistan these days, we talk mostly of the Taliban. In the Afghan context, al Qaeda is now talked about infrequently. Does this not tell you something about a trend, that maybe al Qaeda as we saw it once being led by its Arab fighters in Afghanistan, has become less of a reality as time goes by?" he asked.

"There is very little al Qaeda Arabs can do today in the Afghanistan/Pakistan theater," said Gunaratna. "Firstly, they will be spotted and they will be killed or captured. Second, today in Afghanistan Arabs are not really required to fight the coalition and U.S. forces, because the Taliban are very well trained and very well motivated."

Al Qaeda Arabs did provide suicide bombers — until now, a role Afghan Taliban were unwilling to undertake. In recent months, however, as Taliban propaganda videos have shown, Afghans have signed wills and undertaken suicide missions.

"There are two ways of looking at what is going on between the Taliban and al Qaeda," said a Pakistani security official who asked not to be named. "Either it's the case that the Taliban have become so strong by virtue of sharply rising ethnic 'Pushtoon' support to their cause that al Qaeda is overshadowed and wants to leave Afghanistan.

"Or it's a matter that al Qaeda sees its work for certain being carried forward by the Taliban and has therefore decided to leave. Whatever the motive, the fact is, al Qaeda's Arab wings seem to be leaving," the Pakistani official said.

[wvopfor81]

snflwr4real
CRACK HEAD THAT NEEDS TO BE *^@@!

%u2018While opinions are arguable, convictions need shooting to be cured.%u2019
- T.E. Lawrence


Dam right Lawrence

[kailumego1]

machnews at, yes the Republican dominated congress gave Bush the power. And this war is "illegal", going to someone's home turf, and claiming to be his or her savior or liberator, when we all know the ulterior motive.

%u201COIL%u2019!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

kailmego1, In the first place the terrorists at no place coming over here and attacking the United states on our home turf.There is nothing illegal about this war, and congress voted to give the president the power to go to war.

[grumpas]

jrr4christ! Most religions are very violent! The bible is full and running over with blood-letting! Most have the premise they are the only true religion, every other religion is false! So therefore should be eradicated from the earth! They have never been able to coexist together! More people have been butchered by religious fighting down through the centuries than for any other reason! These are cold hard facts even a lot of Christian's can not deny!

[kailumego1]

It's an embarrassment how some nameless individuals are arguing over the U.S.'s strategic methods in Iraq, when, in reality, we have no business there in the first place.

The supporters of this "illegal" war have to be mindless idiots, with absolutely no intellectual reason.

[kailumego1]

None bothered to do their homework; I mean do a detailed research of the cultural and religious ideology and how it impacted the political structure. For example, how religion and politics intertwined in Iraq, and had a strong variance in Iraqi life, this should have been carefully researched and scrutinized.

Most Americans are so caught up in their malignant narcissism or pseudo-superiority to be objective.

Our country has created a REAL political MESS, with which we have absolutely no recourse but to become interlocked in a painstaking battle that could take decades or even centuries to end.

This is another Vietnam, but much, much worst, and this moron of a president has locked America into what has become the bloodiest war in U.S. history.

And what%u2019s worst, the individuals who continue to support this moron are no better than those who supported Hitler and carried out his mass annihilations.

Americans argue how long do we have to stay in this war?

Well, prepare yourself for the long haul, this president has committed America to a no win situation, by which we have been locked into a limitless time frame.

I can%u2019t understand the reasoning of some individuals, and this goes across the board, especially those whom are educated.

[kailumego1]

How in the world can supposed intelligent people not see the road ahead, considering the historical events which clearly demonstrated this possibility, i.e. Yugoslavia, Rwanda, etc.

Here are two groups, the Kurds and Shiites, who were systematically oppressed by Sunnis for years, to have that veil of oppression lifted in a most unorthodox method, what did you think would happen.

When the Belgium government pulled out of Rwanda and turned the power over to the Hutus, it wasn%u2019t unconceivable to imagine this type of mass murder would occur.

After the Belgium government had oppressed the Hutus, while the Tutsis were given political/economical access to upward mobility.

And now Iraq, the ruler for decades was a Sunni, he had oppressed the Kurds and Shiites, and then the unconceivable occurs, the U.S. with its military hegemony invades this country to create democracy.

This sovereign country that never opted for the U.S.%u2019s help in the first place, encroached and took into custody its ruler, by force, all in the name of democracy.

And what%u2019s frightening the mindset of some of the American people to buy into this %u201Cpropaganda%u201D.


After this disaster we are going to label a %u201Cjoke%u201D, a useless negotiator for peace, we will lose our credibility internationally, because so-called intellectuals were MIA%u2019S when pivotal decisions were being made.

The U.S. has the power to make our current situation either a war between cultures, or a war against criminals intent on causing both cultures grave harm. The war we can win is the war against criminals.

[Syndicate]

Here is how you smuggle liquid explosives on an air plane: First you... Well in the off chance that terrorist have not thaught of this I will not help them. If any law enforcement would like to know what I know they should feel free to contact me. I can tell you this there is a way to do this. It would be extremely difficult to stop and could probably only be done with profiling. As for Iraq the problem is beuracracy and over site. Ever go to the DMV now you understand the Iraqis frustration. For example the electric system worked great under saddam. Why because if saddam said fix it and you didn't, well. IF we want to fix it we have to send out a request for bids. After that the beuracracy kicks in and makes everything take longer and cost a fortune. I work for a local government. One time it took me two days to buy spray paint. I had to fill out a request for funds then I had to find some one willing to deal with our BS then. When I finaly purchased it, I was told it was the wrong kind. I thought stripping paint was stripping paint. Same thing with Katrina Beuracracy killed people.

[jrr4christ]

Part II
Do I have a solution for the current mess in Iraq? Not really. I do think, that we should begin to pull our troops out of their cities, with the exception of some advisors and trainers to continue forming an Iraqi military and police force. The rest of our troops should protect the infrastructure, ie. oil refineries/pipelines, power plants, airports etc. Our troops would still be in a position to intervene if the situation should take a turn for the worse.
I support our troops just as I support Vietnam Vets for what they did. I am proud of their accomplishments, I only wish, that the political leadership would support them as well.
Republicans, Democrats, who cares, ultimately they all look out for their own interest-money. Our troops die for all the Haliburtans, KBR's as well as for the oil and arms industry. Those are the only ones truly benefiting in this war, just as they did in Vietnam.
Unless we as Americans unite,say enough is enough, and effect a drastic regime change, ie. third party, things in this great nation of ours are only going to get worse for the average Citizen. Just food for thought. And "Happy" Veterans Day

[jrr4christ]

I am a Christian, a disabled Vet and a patriot. I am also originally from Germany and came here at the age of 21. The first thing I did, after arriving in this great country was to seek a recruiter and join the army, where I eventually served honorably for over 13 years. I felt it my duty and priveledge to serve the country, that had given me a new home.
With that said, here are a few points about the war and our goverment. First, Islam is a peaceful religion, very similar to Christianity. The only difference is that they failed to recognize Jesus as the Messiah and do not believe in a triune God. Secondly, their religion went astray shortly after Mohammed's death and has been ever since. Christianity experienced similar events over its life span, during the crusades, the inquesition and in most recent history,Catholic and Protestant violence in N. Ireland. Neither Christianity nor Islam are essentially bad, just because humans used their faith to justify their own selfish agendas by distorting and twisting the word of God.
As for our involvement in Iraq, I strongly believe that we should have dealt with Osama Bin Laden in Afganistan first, finished the job, and if justified dealt with Iraq afterward. I served in Iraq during Desert Shield/Storm and luckily never experienced any hostility from Iraqis. I also know, that many Arab countries have citizens sympethatic to Americans, despite of what the media would have as believe.

[bob_burd]

Muslims will surely want to kill us all, from now until eternity, as surely as I will take a bowel movement every morning.

Selah

[bob_burd]

This is news? What a revelation.

Selah

[besscannon-2009]

Hey, why hasn't any of our higher up minds figured out that we have to learn to be sneaky, sneakier than them and, since we don't believe in absolute cruelty, we have to find some way to put fear into the fearless idiots. I say "idiots" because I think the terrorists are an unhinged bunch. Have you ever looked at the expression, or lack of, in their eyes? It is a dead look as if they have already accepted death, therefore, do not fear it, so, we cannot frighten them. The only thing to do with their type is to wipe them out as they want to do to us. To do that, I do believe we have to get over being so wimpy and fight them on their own terms. Otherwise, we will NEVER defeat them.
BIG GUN

[katwomansrevenge]

Kick them out of the country , and send them home .

gatortracks made a single statement at 06:25 PM : Nov 10, 2006, he states: IT IS VERY IMPORTANT AS AMERICANS TO UNITE.AS AMERICANS WE FACE A GREATER THREAT TO OUR FREEDOM THAN EVER BEFORE IN AMERICAN HISTORY. He either needs a lesson on what freedom means or is very young or is not a soldier in Iraq. As no terrorists can endanger our freedom, they can cause losses of human lives, and create problems. But they cannot endanger our freedom. I spent three years of my life in that desert and only recall having internet access once. And it was not so I could surf CBSNews.com

[scouser345-2009]

Janem4 - Right, religous muslim fundamentalist are a true threat to America and the civilized world. Instead of overthrowing secular govenments and creating quagmires, maybe genius should focus his attention on the real threat

[marcelde]

TWO SERIOUS QUESTIONS THAT NEED TO BE ANSWERED BEFORE WE TRY TO DEVELOP ALTERNATIVES TO STAY THE CURSE :

"The Pentagon is conducting a major review of the militarys Iraq strategy to determine whats going wrong and should be changed to attain U.S. objectives in the war-torn country, the nations top general said yesterday."

1- WHAT, PRECISELY, ARE OUR OBJECTIVES IN IRAQ?

"Gen. Pace said: We should not be signaling to our enemies what were going to do next, he told MSNBC."

2- WHO ARE OUR ENEMIES IN IRAQ?

[marcelde]

TWO SERIOUS QUESTIONS THAT NEED TO BE ANSWERED BEFORE WE TRY TO DEVELOP ALTERNATIVES TO STAY THE CURSE :

"The Pentagon is conducting a major review of the militarys Iraq strategy to determine whats going wrong and should be changed to attain U.S. objectives in the war-torn country, the nations top general said yesterday."

1- WHAT, PRECISELY, ARE OUR OBJECTIVES IN IRAQ?

"Gen. Pace said: We should not be signaling to our enemies what were going to do next, he told MSNBC."

2- WHO ARE OUR ENEMIES IN IRAQ?

[djermano]

I believe it is an Oil issue. Really the US is not so interested in bringing Democracy to a country that does not want it, but to keep the oil and the money from it out of their hands. They get the money, they can buy more and more arms.

To bad Bush doesn't explain things clearly. We are all left guessing, and taking the worse for his silence.

If Bush would tell the truth about Iraqi, and accept some of the mistakes made, then I think the American people would support him. But he has only alienated people.

I think America should only be concerned about keeping the oil out of their hands. Troop levels would focus on Oil Locations. Leave the cities and population areas.

Perhaps build an underground oil pipeline. Or simply close down the wells, with aerial bombings. Just pull the troops out, plug the wells and run security to make sure they stay closed. I think they should forget about the pipeline through Afghanistan. Get the oil out of the Caspian sea another way.

Get out of Afghanistan, and build up our National defenses, and educate the people more about this threat. AlQaida will be defeated.