GOP Myths Fall Short Of Reality

Voters Side With Democrats On Terror, Economy; Scandals Doomed Republicans

(CBS)  By CBS News political consultant Samuel J. Best

---

Throughout this election season, considerable speculation emerged about how Republicans would once again minimize midterm turnover. In the aftermath of their heavy midterm losses, though, some of these Republican myths can now be dispelled:

1. Republicans win on "fear factor."

Republicans have long benefited from instilling fear into voters. When issues such as crime or foreign threats have surfaced in the past, voters have historically turned to the Republicans in heavy numbers. For example, in 2004, 56 percent of voters trusted Bush to handle terrorism, compared to only 40 percent for Kerry.

Although the Republicans once again attempted to scare up support by emphasizing threats from terrorism and illegal immigration, they had much less success convincing voters in the 2006 elections that they were better suited to confront these issues than Democrats.

Exit polls showed that 51 percent of voters thought the Democrat Party would make the country safer from terrorism compared to 58 percent of Republicans. Of those who thought the Democrats would make the country safer, 75 percent voted for a Democratic House candidate. Of those who thought the Republicans would make the country safer, 65 percent voted for a Republican House candidate.

Sixty-two percent of voters said immigration was a very important or extremely important factor in their House vote. Of those, voters were split nearly 50-50 between those who chose a Democratic House candidate and those who chose a Republican House candidate.

2. Republican scandals were "much ado about nothing."

Despite Republicans downplaying the impact of Jack Abramoff's indictment and Mark Foley's problems, scandals had a substantial effect on congressional races.

Forty-one percent of voters named corruption as an extremely important factor in their House vote, more than any other issue. Of those saying corruption was an extremely important issue in their vote, 60 percent voted for the Democrat House candidate, compared to 36 percent who voted for the Republican House candidate.

At least 13 seats that switched from Democrat to Republican involved Republicans mired in scandal.

Incumbent Republicans lost House races in California's 11th Congressional District, North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, Ohio's 18th Congressional District, and Minnesota's 1st Congressional District, in part, because of the Abramoff scandal. Other corruption allegations cost Republicans in Colorado's 7th Congressional District, Florida's 22nd Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, and Texas' 22nd Congressional District.

The Foley scandal cost incumbent Republicans seats in Florida's 16th Congressional District, Kansas' 2nd Congressional District, and New York's 19th Congressional District.

In addition, Republican incumbents lost Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District and New York's 20th Congressional District due to their alleged mistreatment of women.

3. GOP prospects were rising with improving economic tides.

The Bush administration spent much of the last month touting economic figures in their belief that voters would demonstrate their gratitude for a thriving economy. In October, the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since May 2001. The price of gas has dropped since mid-summer. And, the Dow Jones industrial average reached its all-time high in the past few weeks.

The problem for Republicans was that voters disagreed with their assessment. Voters across the country judged the economy to be underperforming, and punished them as a result.

Fifty-one percent of voters thought the economy was not good or poor. Of those who thought the economy was not performing well, 77 percent voted for the Democrat candidate in a House race, while only 20 percent voted for the Republican candidate in a House race.

Thirty-nine percent of voters also said the economy was an extremely important factor in their House vote. Of those saying the economy was an extremely important issue in their vote, 59 percent voted for the Democrat, compared to 39 percent who voted for the Republican.

Poor judgments of the economy also played a role in key Senate races. For example, in the Missouri and Ohio Senate races, more voters said the economy was an extremely important factor in their Senate vote than any other issue. Of those fingering the economy as an extremely important issue in these two states, more than 60 percent selected the Democratic candidate in their House vote.

Moreover, voters ignored Republican forecasts about the threats posed to the economy by rising labor expenses and backed minimum wage proposals in five states to aid the working poor. Majorities of voters supported raising the minimum wage in Colorado, Missouri, Montana, Nevada and Ohio.

4. In Republican victories, it's all about the "Benjamins."

Money has frequently been a key factor in securing victory for Republicans in heated congressional races. However, only one of the Republican candidates in the eight most hotly contested Senate races won when they outspent their Democrat opponents during the campaign, according to the Center of Responsive Politics based on expenditures as of Oct. 18, 2006.

Republican Jim Talent was defeated by Democrat Claire McCaskill in the Missouri Senate race and Rick Santorum was defeated by Democrat Bob Casey in the Pennsylvania Senate race, despite spending $10 million more than their opponent.

In Virginia, Republican George Allen spent twice as much on the campaign as Democrat James Webb yet lost, as did Republican Conrad Burns in his setback to Democrat Jon Tester in Montana.

In addition, Republican Michael Steele spent more money than Democrat Ben Cardin in losing to him in the Maryland Senate race. Republican Mike DeWine spent more than Democrat Sherrod Brown in his losing bid for the senate seat in Ohio. And, Republican Lincoln Chafee spent more money on the campaign than Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse in his loss in the Rhode Island Senate election.

Only in Bob Corker's victory over Harold Ford Jr. in the Tennessee Senate race did the Republican candidate win when outspending his opponent — and only by a three-point margin.

5. Republicans own suburbia.

Historically, Republicans have dominated the vote in suburban locations. In 2000, 49 percent of suburbanites voted for Bush, compared to 47 percent who voted for Gore. In 2002, 57 percent of suburban voters opted for House Republican candidates, compared to 40 percent who opted for House Democratic candidates. And, in 2004, 52 percents of suburbanites chose Bush for president, as opposed to 47 percent who chose Kerry.

In 2006, this trend was reversed. Fifty-one percent of suburbanites voted for House Democratic candidates, compared to 48 percent who voted for House Republican candidates — a drop in support for House Republican candidates by nine points from the previous midterm elections.

The exit polls mentioned in this story were conducted by Edison / Mitofsky Research for the National Election Pool among 13,208 voters nationwide as they left the polls on Nov. 7, 2006. The margin of sampling error for the survey is plus-minus 1 percentage point for the entire sample.

Samuel J. Best is an associate professor of political science at the University of Connecticut. He has published a book and several scholarly articles on American public opinion and survey research. He holds a Ph.D. from the State University of New York at Stony Brook.

[frankly6]

This is a very good article.

[jimj1800]

Mr. Best, the correct usage is "Democratic Party," not "Democrat Party."

The latter is a pejorative made popular by Newt Gingrich and Frank Lutz as a pro-Republican branding device, which both of them have freely acknowledged.

In the future kindly use the traditional and correct usage of the name "Democratic Party." They're in the majority now so it's really the least you can do.

[LionMage1]

In the article, I saw the following line (repeated in a fast facts side-bar): "At least 13 seats that switched from Democrat to Republican involved Republicans mired in scandal." I don't mean to seem pedantic, but these seats switched FROM Republican TO Democrat, not the other way around. Few, if any, seats in the House or the Senate switched from Democrat to Republican, since the overall number of Democrat seats increased and the overall number of Republican seats decreased.

[lynnek2405]

Mr. Best, while I agree with the thrust of your article, I would suggest that you use the correct names for the two major political parties, Republican and Democratic. Thank you.

[powwow500]

Prof. Best,
Democrats are called the Democratic Party. We are not the Democrat Party. The latter is an insult and a tip-off that the writer is trying to insult the Democratic Party.

Thank you for noting this and changing your verbiage.

Nancy Smith
Chicago

[Matt in NYC]

In good American English, "Democrat" is the noun and "Democratic" is the adjective. If you don't think it makes a difference, consider the very different sound and feel of a "Jewish lawyer" and a "Jew lawyer." Right-wing types have been trying to promote this offensive usage; CBS should not collaborate with them.

[morague]

Good article spoiled by a gross error.

It is the Democratic Party! Sheesh. Perhaps if everyone started calling the opposition party the Republic Party we'd get some fairness?

The only reason the media & pundits use the wrong terminology is the disparage Democrats - either that or it's ignorance & honestly, I'd hate to think it is ignorance.

Mr. Best, please correct your article unless of course, you really meant to disparage Democrats.

[dkosklondike]

I need to point out a jarring blemish in an otherwise fine article - the misnaming of the Democratic Party.

I would hope that you, as someone who writes for a living at the highest levels of the public discourse would adhere to the rules of grammar especially in cases like this - where the incorrect and non-standard usage is clearly being pushed to advance a political agenda. If we can not agree on the meaning and syntax of the language, and adhere to those agreements, then there is little hope that the national dialog can be improved, in spite of the best efforts of writers like yourself. The meaning and use of Democrat and Democratic is settled.

[Syndicate]

With everything going against the Republicans the democrats could only muster 51% of the vote. Thats sad. So if the economy had been a little better or Iraq had shown a little more progress or if Foley kept his thingy in his pants.... The Republicans would still run the show. I still think the Democrats are being set up for an '08 fall. But hey now the Democrats have to kiss Liebermans as s.

[jbdragoo1943]

This election is a perfect example of how the mainstream media has helped change the political landscape and for the worse. Just as their advertising is effective in changing perceptions (why else is the over $100 billion in TV spent annually?)
Where this article is very specific is regarding
"corruption".

If a message was presented 10,500 times versus 805 times what story would be remembered by most of us?
Well look at the following and tell me that MSM bias was effective:
Do a google news search on the following:
http://news.google.com/news?q=&num=100&hl=en&lr=&safe=off&sa=N&as_qdr=all&tab=wn

Results1 - 20 of 20 for Gary Studds Massachusetts.
Results 1 - 100 of about 805 for William Jefferson Louisiana.
Results 1 - 100 of about 10,500 for Mark Foley Florida.
Is it any wonder that
Forty-one percent of voters named corruption as an extremely important factor in their House vote, more than any other issue. Of those saying corruption was an extremely important issue in their vote, 60 percent voted for the Democrat House candidate, compared to 36 percent who voted for the Republican House candidate.

At least 13 seats that switched from Democrat to Republican involved Republicans mired in scandal.
Proof of how effective the MSM was in supporting the Democrat agenda

[energyecon]

Well it all turned out to be another 'Enron' - the permanent Republican majority, Karl Rove 'Boy Genius', and the 72 Hour Plan - another house of cards that collapsed when tested against reality.

[rafterman1]

No, the Republicans lost because they got arrogant and did not do their jobs very well. It was not the favorite scapegoat of the right, the media. In fact, if anything, the media let Bush off the hook a number of times throughout his presidency (e.g., the Downing Street memo).

The media is always tilted to the ones with the power because they need the access that only the current rulers have. When Clinton got this advantage, the right raged at the "left wing media bias". When Bush got the same benefits, the right didn't even notice just how much off the hook Bush and the Republicans got.

Don't let the reporting of incompetence be confused with bias.

Very intersting article. I am particularly gratified by the fact that dollars do not directly always buy the votes.

Regarding the reader's comment about MSM hyping scandal, the Republicans are the ones who make *** such an issue in government. The MSM is catering to issues leveraged into importance by people like Evangical Haggard and Republican Foley when they publish many articles about the private practices of Foley and Haggard. Everyone will punsh hypocrites!

[erielackawanna]

To jbdragoo1943, how can you possibly consider the fact that there is more reporting on Mark Foley, which happened in the last 90 days, to Gary Studds, which occured an entire generation ago? Don't forget, even though the Studds revelation was something like 1983, the event in quesiton was already ten-yaers-old at the time. Do you really believe it's media bias to report on current events instead of reporting on something that happened 33 years ago?

[blwarning]

What are your sources for your figures regarding the percentages of voters with certain views? Do you actually think President Bush campaigned on the strength of the economy? From what I could tell, it was barely mentioned (as it strangely has been barely mentioned in the mainstream media) by the President when campaigning, but it should have been used frequently.

[agentsmith9]

The article discusses the effect of money in elections, but what about gerrymandering? How well do Republicans do when they out gerrymander their opponents? Like in Texas, for instance. Or is that one not a myth?

[robertjearle]

"Money has frequently been a key factor in securing victory for Republicans in heated congressional races," is a factually useless comment, because it's equally true that money has frequently been a factor in Democratic victories. If you wanted to say that money is always a critical factor, and Republicans raise more money more frequently than Democrats, that would work. If you want to say REPUBLICAN FREQUENTLY BUY ELECTIONS, by all means just SAY it, even if it%u2019s dubious%u2014that%u2019s never stopped the liberal media before.

Write something interesting%u2014explain the Democrats' long-term plan for terrorism, Iran, North Korea, etc. I haven%u2019t heard it. Convince me they%u2019d have the cojones to stick to it the first time something went amiss. Things have gone amiss in Iraq, but when that happens, blame doesn%u2019t help%u2014we need to work together to come up with a better plan%u2014a long term solution, not a quick bailout.

Samuel Best: What do you see for the world ten years ahead? Do you think that tomorrow will take care of itself? No? OK, give me your end-game scenario for ten years from now when Iran has invested a trillion of our oil dollars in long range nuclear missiles and has the same fanatical, religious leadership dreaming of purifying the world and a finger poised on the button. There is no move. Checkmate. Game over (No more political analysis needed! Ever!) Tell me now instead of writing this political drivel.

[ktsuks]

The Dems ran a good marketing campaign that started two years ago. Using the media and their campaign manager Katie, they created scandals where their were none and a war where their is none. (It's a policing action, the war has been over for years. I didn't see Yugoslavia in the news which we still police?)

The majority of the voters that voted Dem did so beause they believed lies and were not intelligent enough to think for themselves. They let the nightly news brainwash them into thinking 1. The economy is bad when it has never been higher. 2. There were no traces of WMD when their were. 3. The "policing" is going bad when the death rate of soldiers is lower than the murder rate at home. 4. The Republican party was full of coruption somehow. The "scandals" were all mis-information.

[w00die--2008]

I am so glad the Democrats prevailed. We need to get back to a stronger America. The Republicans have made a mockery of foreign policy, the economy, and human rights. The Muslims hate us, the middle class and working class are suffering under Republican capitalism, and they want to foist moral policy on a country founded on freedom. It amazes me how long they managed to fool so many for so long.

[ktsuks]

Blah Blah Blah. Same old untrue talking points. The muslims will always hate us and you obvoiusly do not understand the difference between socalism and capitalism or you would not make an ignorant comment like that.

The middle and working class benifit when companies benefit. When is the last time you got a raise when your company was doing bad? Furthermore, I am Atheist and a Republican. Being a Republican has nothing to do with religion. That is an Democratic stereotype to win over the uneducated. It is capitalism vs. socialism at the core. Go and do some research on your own rather than regergitate media garbage. Better yet, take a class in economics.

[tinker3478]

ktsuks[how appropriate]

My ignorant Democratic IQ is 184. What's yours?

[madumpty]

The GOP is master of lies and deception, and thats EXACTLY why we have taken the House and Senate back. People that vote GOP have no interest in facts and base their political opinions on idiots like Limbaugh and O'Reilly. The economy is tanking, the deficit is bigger than its been in 40 years and we are in a war we can't win and will be paying for the rest of our natural lives.
Just WHAT was the GOP plan for this war? Just what was the GOP plan for the economy....another tax break for the top 1% of the population? Oh gimmie a break. The GOP had no plans that worked for anything- thats why you lost in these elections!

[notbuynit]

This election finally proved that Americans are not ALL as stupid as Republicans wish we were.

I was worried for a few years that they were right.

The people finally figured out that W is a charlatan.

Took you all long enough

Here is at toast to all of you anyway!

Cheers!

Good job!

Too bad the other 60 percent of the eligible population does not care enough to show up. Your voice is needed! The world will be a better place when ALL of the voices are heard.

People have died, and still do for that ability.

Shame on all of you who stayed home.

At least a majority of the minority made the right choices on Tuesday.

Clipped Bush's wings, but good! ... Nobody could have deserved it more.

[newsjeff-2009]

Senator Allen I think has learned what I think lots of GOP canidates learned this year. The GOP can brag about all the money they have to spend,millions of dollars in RNC campaign funds,brag about tax cuts,brag about oil and energy companies record breaking profits,business growth,etc., these are not necessarily bad things, but the democrats offered a push for minimum wage increases,illegal immigration reform,a new plan for the war on terrorism,environmental issues,protecting social security,etc.,things that benefit all of working-class America, not just big business interest, or helping out the super-rich class Americans, who are rich enough to live through a depression if necessary. This country has lived through on great depression, I don't think Americans want to live through another one. Some voters are not impressed by republicans bashing homosexuals,abortion,etc., some voters want to see some work being done.

[abbe7]

I was just thinking ... Allen will have free time now. He seems so nice to Webb ... If I was Webb, as a sign of reconciliation, I would send him the whole
series of books he wrote.

[abbe7]

"With everything going against the Republicans the democrats could only muster 51% of the vote. Thats sad".
With Diebold & co counting the votes, the Republicains didn't succeed to keep senate majority.
That's sad (for them).

[pakaal]

With the sweep we've just seen I find it hard to believe people are trying to downplay the significance of this switchover. From complete Republican control of Senate, House and Presidency, to Presidency alone (and that's just 'cause he wasn't up for election). Bearing in mind that redistricting went on (and for example still goes on in Georgia) that makes it virtually impossible for Dems to win, the Dems won anyway. This was a big defeat for Republicans, no matter how often they repeat "no big deal".

[jdragoo1943]

To erielackawan,
You totally ignored the Jefferson bribery case and he is still in congress! Foley resigned. How clear does it have to be that Democrats are always talking about he "culture of corruption" but never resign! Of course Studds was important to show the balance the news media should have had! Why didn't they talk about Studds ASSAULTING A 17 year old page and Congress applauding him when he returned. If you totally condone anything that the Democrats do then you too are just a biased.
It is a fact Foley RESIGNED! Still 10,500 articles! MSM kept bombarding the public and no wonder the general public thought only the GOP was corrupt. Give me a break! Jefferson is still in Congress.
"Do you really believe it's media bias to report on current events instead of reporting on something that happened 33 years ago?"
I don't believe it is a fact! You just can't admit this fact: Foley Resigned 10,500 articles.
Jefferson still in office only 805. Tell me this is not media bias!

[jdragoo1943]

My ignorant Democratic IQ is 184. What's yours?
Posted by Tinker3478 at 05:46 PM : Nov 09, 2006
Hey Tinker3478 of the 4 choices which IQ test did you score a 184?

A)IQTest.com
B)www.highiqsociety.org
C) www.mensa.org
D) None of the above because anyone that brags about their IQ is totally representative of the classless
pseudo-intellectual Democrats that believe everything the mainstream media distributes.
Again, I sincerely pray to Allah that those of my bretheran that are totally distorting the Islamic faith by acting like gangsters understand that the Democrats for whom they supported are nothing but words. No actions. Even now they are backing down on their Iraq status. All the Democrats have done is proven that Advertising works! Why else is there over $100 billion a year spent on TV/newspapers. And if the ads are that effect think of how affect the MSM bias has been.
Everyone decries that over $2 billion was directly spent on campaigns. No one has calculated how much was actually spent by MSM supporting the Democratic party.

[brandts1]

Anyone who wants to see you typical Republican know-it-all who really knows nothing. Look on the 2nd page at KTSUKS comments. First of all, don't be so condescending to us Dems. It is a fact that the more education you have, the more likely you are to vote democratic (there have been studies) so you need to stop telling people to go to school. Second of all, anyone who thinks IRAQ is a 'policing action' can not be fully in touch with reality. I have a question for you, when is the last time you heard of a 'policing action claiming 100,000 lives. Your very last comment was actually the most absurd thing i've heard in awhile. If you wrote down a list of the corrupt Republicans since 2000 you would get hand cramps.

[kstrisha]

Two of the four House members elected from Kansas are Democrats. Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius was re-elected to a second term, and Republican Attorney General Phill Kline lost his re-election bid by double digits. (Bill O'Reilly's abortion show helped this happen) And Moderates will retake control of the state school board in January(Creationisim/Unintelligent Design morons are out of power.)

I have personally had enough of the right wing religous zealots running Kansas(think "God Hate Gags"/Fred Phelps and his Westboro Church who pickets Iraqi war Soldier's funerals.) It is obvious that many others feel the same as I do. We operate in a two party system, and in Kansas, the Dems are more to the center that the Repukes are to the right.