GOP Myths Fall Short Of Reality

Voters Side With Democrats On Terror, Economy; Scandals Doomed Republicans

(CBS)  By CBS News political consultant Samuel J. Best

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Throughout this election season, considerable speculation emerged about how Republicans would once again minimize midterm turnover. In the aftermath of their heavy midterm losses, though, some of these Republican myths can now be dispelled:

1. Republicans win on "fear factor."

Republicans have long benefited from instilling fear into voters. When issues such as crime or foreign threats have surfaced in the past, voters have historically turned to the Republicans in heavy numbers. For example, in 2004, 56 percent of voters trusted Bush to handle terrorism, compared to only 40 percent for Kerry.

Although the Republicans once again attempted to scare up support by emphasizing threats from terrorism and illegal immigration, they had much less success convincing voters in the 2006 elections that they were better suited to confront these issues than Democrats.

Exit polls showed that 51 percent of voters thought the Democrat Party would make the country safer from terrorism compared to 58 percent of Republicans. Of those who thought the Democrats would make the country safer, 75 percent voted for a Democratic House candidate. Of those who thought the Republicans would make the country safer, 65 percent voted for a Republican House candidate.

Sixty-two percent of voters said immigration was a very important or extremely important factor in their House vote. Of those, voters were split nearly 50-50 between those who chose a Democratic House candidate and those who chose a Republican House candidate.

2. Republican scandals were "much ado about nothing."

Despite Republicans downplaying the impact of Jack Abramoff's indictment and Mark Foley's problems, scandals had a substantial effect on congressional races.

Forty-one percent of voters named corruption as an extremely important factor in their House vote, more than any other issue. Of those saying corruption was an extremely important issue in their vote, 60 percent voted for the Democrat House candidate, compared to 36 percent who voted for the Republican House candidate.

At least 13 seats that switched from Democrat to Republican involved Republicans mired in scandal.

Incumbent Republicans lost House races in California's 11th Congressional District, North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, Ohio's 18th Congressional District, and Minnesota's 1st Congressional District, in part, because of the Abramoff scandal. Other corruption allegations cost Republicans in Colorado's 7th Congressional District, Florida's 22nd Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, and Texas' 22nd Congressional District.

The Foley scandal cost incumbent Republicans seats in Florida's 16th Congressional District, Kansas' 2nd Congressional District, and New York's 19th Congressional District.

In addition, Republican incumbents lost Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District and New York's 20th Congressional District due to their alleged mistreatment of women.

3. GOP prospects were rising with improving economic tides.

The Bush administration spent much of the last month touting economic figures in their belief that voters would demonstrate their gratitude for a thriving economy. In October, the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since May 2001. The price of gas has dropped since mid-summer. And, the Dow Jones industrial average reached its all-time high in the past few weeks.

The problem for Republicans was that voters disagreed with their assessment. Voters across the country judged the economy to be underperforming, and punished them as a result.

Fifty-one percent of voters thought the economy was not good or poor. Of those who thought the economy was not performing well, 77 percent voted for the Democrat candidate in a House race, while only 20 percent voted for the Republican candidate in a House race.

Thirty-nine percent of voters also said the economy was an extremely important factor in their House vote. Of those saying the economy was an extremely important issue in their vote, 59 percent voted for the Democrat, compared to 39 percent who voted for the Republican.

Poor judgments of the economy also played a role in key Senate races. For example, in the Missouri and Ohio Senate races, more voters said the economy was an extremely important factor in their Senate vote than any other issue. Of those fingering the economy as an extremely important issue in these two states, more than 60 percent selected the Democratic candidate in their House vote.

Moreover, voters ignored Republican forecasts about the threats posed to the economy by rising labor expenses and backed minimum wage proposals in five states to aid the working poor. Majorities of voters supported raising the minimum wage in Colorado, Missouri, Montana, Nevada and Ohio.

4. In Republican victories, it's all about the "Benjamins."

Money has frequently been a key factor in securing victory for Republicans in heated congressional races. However, only one of the Republican candidates in the eight most hotly contested Senate races won when they outspent their Democrat opponents during the campaign, according to the Center of Responsive Politics based on expenditures as of Oct. 18, 2006.

Republican Jim Talent was defeated by Democrat Claire McCaskill in the Missouri Senate race and Rick Santorum was defeated by Democrat Bob Casey in the Pennsylvania Senate race, despite spending $10 million more than their opponent.

In Virginia, Republican George Allen spent twice as much on the campaign as Democrat James Webb yet lost, as did Republican Conrad Burns in his setback to Democrat Jon Tester in Montana.

In addition, Republican Michael Steele spent more money than Democrat Ben Cardin in losing to him in the Maryland Senate race. Republican Mike DeWine spent more than Democrat Sherrod Brown in his losing bid for the senate seat in Ohio. And, Republican Lincoln Chafee spent more money on the campaign than Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse in his loss in the Rhode Island Senate election.

Only in Bob Corker's victory over Harold Ford Jr. in the Tennessee Senate race did the Republican candidate win when outspending his opponent — and only by a three-point margin.

5. Republicans own suburbia.

Historically, Republicans have dominated the vote in suburban locations. In 2000, 49 percent of suburbanites voted for Bush, compared to 47 percent who voted for Gore. In 2002, 57 percent of suburban voters opted for House Republican candidates, compared to 40 percent who opted for House Democratic candidates. And, in 2004, 52 percents of suburbanites chose Bush for president, as opposed to 47 percent who chose Kerry.

In 2006, this trend was reversed. Fifty-one percent of suburbanites voted for House Democratic candidates, compared to 48 percent who voted for House Republican candidates — a drop in support for House Republican candidates by nine points from the previous midterm elections.

The exit polls mentioned in this story were conducted by Edison / Mitofsky Research for the National Election Pool among 13,208 voters nationwide as they left the polls on Nov. 7, 2006. The margin of sampling error for the survey is plus-minus 1 percentage point for the entire sample.

Samuel J. Best is an associate professor of political science at the University of Connecticut. He has published a book and several scholarly articles on American public opinion and survey research. He holds a Ph.D. from the State University of New York at Stony Brook.

[kstrisha]

Two of the four House members elected from Kansas are Democrats. Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius was re-elected to a second term, and Republican Attorney General Phill Kline lost his re-election bid by double digits. (Bill O'Reilly's abortion show helped this happen) And Moderates will retake control of the state school board in January(Creationisim/Unintelligent Design morons are out of power.)

I have personally had enough of the right wing religous zealots running Kansas(think "God Hate Gags"/Fred Phelps and his Westboro Church who pickets Iraqi war Soldier's funerals.) It is obvious that many others feel the same as I do. We operate in a two party system, and in Kansas, the Dems are more to the center that the Repukes are to the right.

[brandts1]

Anyone who wants to see you typical Republican know-it-all who really knows nothing. Look on the 2nd page at KTSUKS comments. First of all, don't be so condescending to us Dems. It is a fact that the more education you have, the more likely you are to vote democratic (there have been studies) so you need to stop telling people to go to school. Second of all, anyone who thinks IRAQ is a 'policing action' can not be fully in touch with reality. I have a question for you, when is the last time you heard of a 'policing action claiming 100,000 lives. Your very last comment was actually the most absurd thing i've heard in awhile. If you wrote down a list of the corrupt Republicans since 2000 you would get hand cramps.

[jdragoo1943]

My ignorant Democratic IQ is 184. What's yours?
Posted by Tinker3478 at 05:46 PM : Nov 09, 2006
Hey Tinker3478 of the 4 choices which IQ test did you score a 184?

A)IQTest.com
B)www.highiqsociety.org
C) www.mensa.org
D) None of the above because anyone that brags about their IQ is totally representative of the classless
pseudo-intellectual Democrats that believe everything the mainstream media distributes.
Again, I sincerely pray to Allah that those of my bretheran that are totally distorting the Islamic faith by acting like gangsters understand that the Democrats for whom they supported are nothing but words. No actions. Even now they are backing down on their Iraq status. All the Democrats have done is proven that Advertising works! Why else is there over $100 billion a year spent on TV/newspapers. And if the ads are that effect think of how affect the MSM bias has been.
Everyone decries that over $2 billion was directly spent on campaigns. No one has calculated how much was actually spent by MSM supporting the Democratic party.

[jdragoo1943]

To erielackawan,
You totally ignored the Jefferson bribery case and he is still in congress! Foley resigned. How clear does it have to be that Democrats are always talking about he "culture of corruption" but never resign! Of course Studds was important to show the balance the news media should have had! Why didn't they talk about Studds ASSAULTING A 17 year old page and Congress applauding him when he returned. If you totally condone anything that the Democrats do then you too are just a biased.
It is a fact Foley RESIGNED! Still 10,500 articles! MSM kept bombarding the public and no wonder the general public thought only the GOP was corrupt. Give me a break! Jefferson is still in Congress.
"Do you really believe it's media bias to report on current events instead of reporting on something that happened 33 years ago?"
I don't believe it is a fact! You just can't admit this fact: Foley Resigned 10,500 articles.
Jefferson still in office only 805. Tell me this is not media bias!

[pakaal]

With the sweep we've just seen I find it hard to believe people are trying to downplay the significance of this switchover. From complete Republican control of Senate, House and Presidency, to Presidency alone (and that's just 'cause he wasn't up for election). Bearing in mind that redistricting went on (and for example still goes on in Georgia) that makes it virtually impossible for Dems to win, the Dems won anyway. This was a big defeat for Republicans, no matter how often they repeat "no big deal".

[abbe7]

"With everything going against the Republicans the democrats could only muster 51% of the vote. Thats sad".
With Diebold & co counting the votes, the Republicains didn't succeed to keep senate majority.
That's sad (for them).

[abbe7]

I was just thinking ... Allen will have free time now. He seems so nice to Webb ... If I was Webb, as a sign of reconciliation, I would send him the whole
series of books he wrote.

[newsjeff-2009]

Senator Allen I think has learned what I think lots of GOP canidates learned this year. The GOP can brag about all the money they have to spend,millions of dollars in RNC campaign funds,brag about tax cuts,brag about oil and energy companies record breaking profits,business growth,etc., these are not necessarily bad things, but the democrats offered a push for minimum wage increases,illegal immigration reform,a new plan for the war on terrorism,environmental issues,protecting social security,etc.,things that benefit all of working-class America, not just big business interest, or helping out the super-rich class Americans, who are rich enough to live through a depression if necessary. This country has lived through on great depression, I don't think Americans want to live through another one. Some voters are not impressed by republicans bashing homosexuals,abortion,etc., some voters want to see some work being done.

[notbuynit]

This election finally proved that Americans are not ALL as stupid as Republicans wish we were.

I was worried for a few years that they were right.

The people finally figured out that W is a charlatan.

Took you all long enough

Here is at toast to all of you anyway!

Cheers!

Good job!

Too bad the other 60 percent of the eligible population does not care enough to show up. Your voice is needed! The world will be a better place when ALL of the voices are heard.

People have died, and still do for that ability.

Shame on all of you who stayed home.

At least a majority of the minority made the right choices on Tuesday.

Clipped Bush's wings, but good! ... Nobody could have deserved it more.

[madumpty]

The GOP is master of lies and deception, and thats EXACTLY why we have taken the House and Senate back. People that vote GOP have no interest in facts and base their political opinions on idiots like Limbaugh and O'Reilly. The economy is tanking, the deficit is bigger than its been in 40 years and we are in a war we can't win and will be paying for the rest of our natural lives.
Just WHAT was the GOP plan for this war? Just what was the GOP plan for the economy....another tax break for the top 1% of the population? Oh gimmie a break. The GOP had no plans that worked for anything- thats why you lost in these elections!