Nov. 9, 2006
GOP Myths Fall Short Of Reality
Voters Side With Democrats On Terror, Economy; Scandals Doomed Republicans
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Photo
Sen. George Allen of Virginia, left, outspent his Democratic opponent Jim Webb by nearly twice as much, according to the Center of Responsive Politics based on expenditures as of Oct. 18, 2006. (AP Photo/Getty Images)
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Photo Essay
Winners And Losers
Images of some of the victors and vanquished from Election Day 2006.
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Photos
Election Day '06
Images from around the country as Americans exercise their right to vote.
Throughout this election season, considerable speculation emerged about how Republicans would once again minimize midterm turnover. In the aftermath of their heavy midterm losses, though, some of these Republican myths can now be dispelled:
1. Republicans win on "fear factor."
Republicans have long benefited from instilling fear into voters. When issues such as crime or foreign threats have surfaced in the past, voters have historically turned to the Republicans in heavy numbers. For example, in 2004, 56 percent of voters trusted Bush to handle terrorism, compared to only 40 percent for Kerry.
Although the Republicans once again attempted to scare up support by emphasizing threats from terrorism and illegal immigration, they had much less success convincing voters in the 2006 elections that they were better suited to confront these issues than Democrats.
Exit polls showed that 51 percent of voters thought the Democrat Party would make the country safer from terrorism compared to 58 percent of Republicans. Of those who thought the Democrats would make the country safer, 75 percent voted for a Democratic House candidate. Of those who thought the Republicans would make the country safer, 65 percent voted for a Republican House candidate.
Sixty-two percent of voters said immigration was a very important or extremely important factor in their House vote. Of those, voters were split nearly 50-50 between those who chose a Democratic House candidate and those who chose a Republican House candidate.
2. Republican scandals were "much ado about nothing."
Despite Republicans downplaying the impact of Jack Abramoff's indictment and Mark Foley's problems, scandals had a substantial effect on congressional races.
Forty-one percent of voters named corruption as an extremely important factor in their House vote, more than any other issue. Of those saying corruption was an extremely important issue in their vote, 60 percent voted for the Democrat House candidate, compared to 36 percent who voted for the Republican House candidate.
At least 13 seats that switched from Democrat to Republican involved Republicans mired in scandal.
Incumbent Republicans lost House races in California's 11th Congressional District, North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, Ohio's 18th Congressional District, and Minnesota's 1st Congressional District, in part, because of the Abramoff scandal. Other corruption allegations cost Republicans in Colorado's 7th Congressional District, Florida's 22nd Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, and Texas' 22nd Congressional District.
The Foley scandal cost incumbent Republicans seats in Florida's 16th Congressional District, Kansas' 2nd Congressional District, and New York's 19th Congressional District.
In addition, Republican incumbents lost Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District and New York's 20th Congressional District due to their alleged mistreatment of women.
3. GOP prospects were rising with improving economic tides.
The Bush administration spent much of the last month touting economic figures in their belief that voters would demonstrate their gratitude for a thriving economy. In October, the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since May 2001. The price of gas has dropped since mid-summer. And, the Dow Jones industrial average reached its all-time high in the past few weeks.
The problem for Republicans was that voters disagreed with their assessment. Voters across the country judged the economy to be underperforming, and punished them as a result.
Fifty-one percent of voters thought the economy was not good or poor. Of those who thought the economy was not performing well, 77 percent voted for the Democrat candidate in a House race, while only 20 percent voted for the Republican candidate in a House race.
Thirty-nine percent of voters also said the economy was an extremely important factor in their House vote. Of those saying the economy was an extremely important issue in their vote, 59 percent voted for the Democrat, compared to 39 percent who voted for the Republican.
Poor judgments of the economy also played a role in key Senate races. For example, in the Missouri and Ohio Senate races, more voters said the economy was an extremely important factor in their Senate vote than any other issue. Of those fingering the economy as an extremely important issue in these two states, more than 60 percent selected the Democratic candidate in their House vote.
Moreover, voters ignored Republican forecasts about the threats posed to the economy by rising labor expenses and backed minimum wage proposals in five states to aid the working poor. Majorities of voters supported raising the minimum wage in Colorado, Missouri, Montana, Nevada and Ohio.
4. In Republican victories, it's all about the "Benjamins."
Money has frequently been a key factor in securing victory for Republicans in heated congressional races. However, only one of the Republican candidates in the eight most hotly contested Senate races won when they outspent their Democrat opponents during the campaign, according to the Center of Responsive Politics based on expenditures as of Oct. 18, 2006.
Republican Jim Talent was defeated by Democrat Claire McCaskill in the Missouri Senate race and Rick Santorum was defeated by Democrat Bob Casey in the Pennsylvania Senate race, despite spending $10 million more than their opponent.
In Virginia, Republican George Allen spent twice as much on the campaign as Democrat James Webb yet lost, as did Republican Conrad Burns in his setback to Democrat Jon Tester in Montana.
In addition, Republican Michael Steele spent more money than Democrat Ben Cardin in losing to him in the Maryland Senate race. Republican Mike DeWine spent more than Democrat Sherrod Brown in his losing bid for the senate seat in Ohio. And, Republican Lincoln Chafee spent more money on the campaign than Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse in his loss in the Rhode Island Senate election.
Only in Bob Corker's victory over Harold Ford Jr. in the Tennessee Senate race did the Republican candidate win when outspending his opponent — and only by a three-point margin.
5. Republicans own suburbia.
Historically, Republicans have dominated the vote in suburban locations. In 2000, 49 percent of suburbanites voted for Bush, compared to 47 percent who voted for Gore. In 2002, 57 percent of suburban voters opted for House Republican candidates, compared to 40 percent who opted for House Democratic candidates. And, in 2004, 52 percents of suburbanites chose Bush for president, as opposed to 47 percent who chose Kerry.
In 2006, this trend was reversed. Fifty-one percent of suburbanites voted for House Democratic candidates, compared to 48 percent who voted for House Republican candidates — a drop in support for House Republican candidates by nine points from the previous midterm elections.
The exit polls mentioned in this story were conducted by Edison / Mitofsky Research for the National Election Pool among 13,208 voters nationwide as they left the polls on Nov. 7, 2006. The margin of sampling error for the survey is plus-minus 1 percentage point for the entire sample.
Samuel J. Best is an associate professor of political science at the University of Connecticut. He has published a book and several scholarly articles on American public opinion and survey research. He holds a Ph.D. from the State University of New York at Stony Brook.
By Samuel J. Best
©MMVI, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.




The latter is a pejorative made popular by Newt Gingrich and Frank Lutz as a pro-Republican branding device, which both of them have freely acknowledged.
In the future kindly use the traditional and correct usage of the name "Democratic Party." They're in the majority now so it's really the least you can do.
Democrats are called the Democratic Party. We are not the Democrat Party. The latter is an insult and a tip-off that the writer is trying to insult the Democratic Party.
Thank you for noting this and changing your verbiage.
Nancy Smith
Chicago
It is the Democratic Party! Sheesh. Perhaps if everyone started calling the opposition party the Republic Party we'd get some fairness?
The only reason the media & pundits use the wrong terminology is the disparage Democrats - either that or it's ignorance & honestly, I'd hate to think it is ignorance.
Mr. Best, please correct your article unless of course, you really meant to disparage Democrats.
I would hope that you, as someone who writes for a living at the highest levels of the public discourse would adhere to the rules of grammar especially in cases like this - where the incorrect and non-standard usage is clearly being pushed to advance a political agenda. If we can not agree on the meaning and syntax of the language, and adhere to those agreements, then there is little hope that the national dialog can be improved, in spite of the best efforts of writers like yourself. The meaning and use of Democrat and Democratic is settled.
Where this article is very specific is regarding
"corruption".
If a message was presented 10,500 times versus 805 times what story would be remembered by most of us?
Well look at the following and tell me that MSM bias was effective:
Do a google news search on the following:
http://news.google.com/news?q=&num=100&hl=en&lr=&safe=off&sa=N&as_qdr=all&tab=wn
Results1 - 20 of 20 for Gary Studds Massachusetts.
Results 1 - 100 of about 805 for William Jefferson Louisiana.
Results 1 - 100 of about 10,500 for Mark Foley Florida.
Is it any wonder that
Forty-one percent of voters named corruption as an extremely important factor in their House vote, more than any other issue. Of those saying corruption was an extremely important issue in their vote, 60 percent voted for the Democrat House candidate, compared to 36 percent who voted for the Republican House candidate.
At least 13 seats that switched from Democrat to Republican involved Republicans mired in scandal.
Proof of how effective the MSM was in supporting the Democrat agenda
The media is always tilted to the ones with the power because they need the access that only the current rulers have. When Clinton got this advantage, the right raged at the "left wing media bias". When Bush got the same benefits, the right didn't even notice just how much off the hook Bush and the Republicans got.
Don't let the reporting of incompetence be confused with bias.
Regarding the reader's comment about MSM hyping scandal, the Republicans are the ones who make *** such an issue in government. The MSM is catering to issues leveraged into importance by people like Evangical Haggard and Republican Foley when they publish many articles about the private practices of Foley and Haggard. Everyone will punsh hypocrites!
Write something interesting%u2014explain the Democrats' long-term plan for terrorism, Iran, North Korea, etc. I haven%u2019t heard it. Convince me they%u2019d have the cojones to stick to it the first time something went amiss. Things have gone amiss in Iraq, but when that happens, blame doesn%u2019t help%u2014we need to work together to come up with a better plan%u2014a long term solution, not a quick bailout.
Samuel Best: What do you see for the world ten years ahead? Do you think that tomorrow will take care of itself? No? OK, give me your end-game scenario for ten years from now when Iran has invested a trillion of our oil dollars in long range nuclear missiles and has the same fanatical, religious leadership dreaming of purifying the world and a finger poised on the button. There is no move. Checkmate. Game over (No more political analysis needed! Ever!) Tell me now instead of writing this political drivel.
The majority of the voters that voted Dem did so beause they believed lies and were not intelligent enough to think for themselves. They let the nightly news brainwash them into thinking 1. The economy is bad when it has never been higher. 2. There were no traces of WMD when their were. 3. The "policing" is going bad when the death rate of soldiers is lower than the murder rate at home. 4. The Republican party was full of coruption somehow. The "scandals" were all mis-information.
The middle and working class benifit when companies benefit. When is the last time you got a raise when your company was doing bad? Furthermore, I am Atheist and a Republican. Being a Republican has nothing to do with religion. That is an Democratic stereotype to win over the uneducated. It is capitalism vs. socialism at the core. Go and do some research on your own rather than regergitate media garbage. Better yet, take a class in economics.
My ignorant Democratic IQ is 184. What's yours?
Just WHAT was the GOP plan for this war? Just what was the GOP plan for the economy....another tax break for the top 1% of the population? Oh gimmie a break. The GOP had no plans that worked for anything- thats why you lost in these elections!
I was worried for a few years that they were right.
The people finally figured out that W is a charlatan.
Took you all long enough
Here is at toast to all of you anyway!
Cheers!
Good job!
Too bad the other 60 percent of the eligible population does not care enough to show up. Your voice is needed! The world will be a better place when ALL of the voices are heard.
People have died, and still do for that ability.
Shame on all of you who stayed home.
At least a majority of the minority made the right choices on Tuesday.
Clipped Bush's wings, but good! ... Nobody could have deserved it more.
series of books he wrote.
With Diebold & co counting the votes, the Republicains didn't succeed to keep senate majority.
That's sad (for them).
You totally ignored the Jefferson bribery case and he is still in congress! Foley resigned. How clear does it have to be that Democrats are always talking about he "culture of corruption" but never resign! Of course Studds was important to show the balance the news media should have had! Why didn't they talk about Studds ASSAULTING A 17 year old page and Congress applauding him when he returned. If you totally condone anything that the Democrats do then you too are just a biased.
It is a fact Foley RESIGNED! Still 10,500 articles! MSM kept bombarding the public and no wonder the general public thought only the GOP was corrupt. Give me a break! Jefferson is still in Congress.
"Do you really believe it's media bias to report on current events instead of reporting on something that happened 33 years ago?"
I don't believe it is a fact! You just can't admit this fact: Foley Resigned 10,500 articles.
Jefferson still in office only 805. Tell me this is not media bias!
Posted by Tinker3478 at 05:46 PM : Nov 09, 2006
Hey Tinker3478 of the 4 choices which IQ test did you score a 184?
A)IQTest.com
B)www.highiqsociety.org
C) www.mensa.org
D) None of the above because anyone that brags about their IQ is totally representative of the classless
pseudo-intellectual Democrats that believe everything the mainstream media distributes.
Again, I sincerely pray to Allah that those of my bretheran that are totally distorting the Islamic faith by acting like gangsters understand that the Democrats for whom they supported are nothing but words. No actions. Even now they are backing down on their Iraq status. All the Democrats have done is proven that Advertising works! Why else is there over $100 billion a year spent on TV/newspapers. And if the ads are that effect think of how affect the MSM bias has been.
Everyone decries that over $2 billion was directly spent on campaigns. No one has calculated how much was actually spent by MSM supporting the Democratic party.
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by kstrisha
November 11, 2006 3:37 AM PST
- Two of the four House members elected from Kansas are Democrats. Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius was re-elected to a second term, and Republican Attorney General Phill Kline lost his re-election bid by double digits. (Bill O'Reilly's abortion show helped this happen) And Moderates will retake control of the state school board in January(Creationisim/Unintelligent Design morons are out of power.)
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Reply to this comment
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See all 31 CommentsI have personally had enough of the right wing religous zealots running Kansas(think "God Hate Gags"/Fred Phelps and his Westboro Church who pickets Iraqi war Soldier's funerals.) It is obvious that many others feel the same as I do. We operate in a two party system, and in Kansas, the Dems are more to the center that the Repukes are to the right.