Why The Democrats Won

Bush, Iraq War And Congressional Corruption Badly Hurt The GOP

(CBS)  By CBS News Political Consultant David R. Jones

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When one political party controls all the levers of government power, it also carries the burden of responsibility for the state of the nation in voters’ minds. The Republican Party learned this lesson the hard way in this year’s congressional election. CBS News exit polls show an angry electorate that has taken its frustration out almost entirely on Republican candidates for office, while not a single Democratic incumbent lost a seat.

Sensing a dangerous national tide, Republicans had hoped to make this year’s election about local issues. However, those leaving the polls said that national issues were more important in determining their votes by a nearly 2-1 margin. And most of the national issues cited by voters as important reflect the negative mood of the American public this election.

One of the most dramatic shifts has been on the issue of Iraq. In 2004, a narrow majority of voters (51 percent) said they approved of the decision to go to war in Iraq. This year, only 41 percent of voters said they approved of the war in Iraq, and only one-third said that the war had improved the long-term security of the United States. Among those who disapproved of the war, 4 out of 5 voted for the Democratic House candidate.

This change in voters’ views of Iraq appears to directly reflect voters’ evaluations of how George W. Bush is handling his job as president. In 2004, 51 percent of voters approved of Bush. Two years later that figure has also dropped to 41 percent, and 4 out of 5 of those critical of Bush voted Democratic.

If voters were only unhappy with Mr. Bush, Republicans might have been able to limit their losses in this election. However, 61 percent of voters also disapproved of the Republican controlled Congress – up from 49 percent disapproval in the 2002 midterm elections for Congress. And 7 in 10 of those disapproving of Congress this year cast their ballots for Democrats.

Throughout the campaign season, Democrats argued that Republicans in Congress represented a “culture of corruption.” This theme appears to have resonated among voters. Forty-one percent of voters said that corruption and scandals in government were extremely important in their House vote, with an additional 33 percent saying the issues were very important. Those citing corruption and scandals as very important favored Democratic House candidates by 8 points, and those who said they were extremely important favored Democrats by 24 points.

The anti-Republican tide evident in these exit poll responses was strong enough that its impact could be seen across virtually all demographic groups. In certain cases, however, the tide was enough to change a previously Republican leaning group of voters into a Democratic leaning group of voters.

This was certainly the case for suburban voters — a coveted demographic group in recent elections. In the 2002 midterm election, suburban voters favored Republican candidates 57 percent to 40 percent. This midterm, suburbanites went for Democrats by a slim margin, 51 percent to 48 percent.

Perhaps the biggest effect of the national tide this year could be seen among independent voters. Independent voters were even more pessimistic about the Republicans’ handing of the legislative and executive branches than the average voter was. Only 33 percent of independents approved of Mr. Bush’s job performance, and only 28 percent approved of Congress’ job performance.

The result of this pessimism was that independents made a key difference in determining control of the House this year. While in 2002 Independents were almost evenly split between Republicans (48%) and Democrats (45%), this year Independents favored Democrats by a whopping 18 points, 57% to 39%, easily providing the margin of victory across multiple contests.

David R. Jones is an associate professor of political science at Baruch College, City University of New York. He has published a book and several scholarly articles on American politics and voting behavior. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of California, Los Angeles.

The exit polls were conducted by Edison/Mitofsky Research for the National Election Pool among 13,208 voters nationwide as they left the polls on November 7, 2006. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 1 percentage point for the entire sample.

[clestes-2009]

USAwatchman what are you talking about?? Buy food and ammo? You sound like those "commies under every bed" paranoia of the 1950's. Are you afraid we will be attacked here at home or that the neo-nazis living in the woods somewhere out west will revolt or there will be rioting in the streets because congress changed hands?

Whatever it is, take a deep breath. None of the above is likely to happen.

[cinaodh]

If the American people wanted more progressive representation then why did they elect conservative democrats to replace the Republican incumbents? That analysis doesn't stand up to the facts, and reduces to being merely wishful thinking. Outside of northern New England, California and Oregon, when progressives run as progressives, they lose, as either Democrat or Republican.

[bond212]

The victory obtained by the Democrats is no surprise. It shows however of the gradual change that has operated in the minds of Americans over the way the Republicans , overall, have handles the affairs of the country (a bit badly), and with which the voters wanted to show their disagreement and deceipt.
Although I keep away from partisan politics, I feel, however, that ethiques plays on as a strong element in determining the choice of our political representatives, and the Democratic victory results attests this truth upholds still.
America is a great nation; its deeply democratic culture, the place that this culture accords to ethical values and ethos, constitute the cornerstones of its greatness. And accounts for why many in the world (who wish to emulate America), continue to look on to it both with envy and admiration for the hope that it inspires across the world, as well as for the guidance that
it offers. The recent voting results show that Americans are mindfull of this image, as well as that they are a people who would not sacrifice neither on courage or bravery (as they have constantly shown during the first and the second World Wars) nor on efficiency (results based actions which the war in Iraq has still to show) nor on ethiques, to xhich we attribute the large victory of the Democrats over the Republicans.

[paul_pitcl]

"Why The Democrats Won"

Maybe the people were fed up with iron fisted facism? (just a guess...)

[sfsdgs]

The American people have spoken, we want a progressive America where abortion rights are protected ,where *** can have freedom, and where Christian nuts are kept away from politics.On the issue of Iraq, I hope many more American soldiers die, then will we see that Bush was wrong.
Can't wait till the impeachment! Great job CBS!

[varugheese]

The Democrats won not only because people were upset with Bush but also because of the overwhelming bias against Republicans from the mainstream media.This was definitely evident on election night and the day after when Katie Couric had that smirk on her face when talking of the Republican defeat.It was very evident she was happy with the effort she gave to help her liberal friends.

[pergirl06]

The next President will still be a Republican...

[pergirl06]

Yes, the DEMOCRATS won, NOW WHAT??? Will they bring my husband back home soon who is in Iraq right now and leave Iraq in chaos??? We will see what this DEMs were saying about their bragging word, CHANGE. I only hope they will not disappoint the Americans who voted for them yesterday...

[usawatchman]

PEOPLE BUY YOUR

GUNS & AMMUNITION

WHILE YOU STILL CAN..!

(Don't foget food too - 2-3 yrs)

[usawatchman]

At the end of W.W.II didn't Italy's Mussolini and his wife
get caught decorating a street lamp...?

or was it they got caught, and then they decorated a street lamp

[usawatchman]

Maybe we should be IMPEACH PELSOSI...

[nfaith-2009]

Please let's start the investigation into 9/11 and intelligence Bush claimed he had to go to war immediately. Let's reveal the truth to the world about his real objectives in Iraq. Let's investigate why the oval office felt above the law and didn't have to go through the courts for approval to conduct illegal wire taps.

Please reveal the truth and the
Democrats will not only win the White House by a landslide in 08 but Bush might get what he deserves IMPEACHMENT!

[usawatchman]

redtaz6100

New voting machines at work manipulating the VOTE...???

[redtaz6100]

why is it in the senate race in Virginia the vote count is going down at 11 am today the vote count was 1,170,708 for Webb and 1,162,576 for Allen and at 1pm today the vote count is 1,169,280 for Webb and 1,169,576 for Allen????????????

does anyone else see something wrong with this????????

[shingles1]

"Still a whole lot of hate speech going on from the left, even with your victory."

That's funny, there's been nothing BUT hate speech from the Kool Aid drinkers for the last five years. And now that the Kool Aid drinkers have lost they're going to lecture everyone else about "being nice". You've got to be kidding me.

[redtide002]

Now that they're back in the saddle, the Dems have an opportunity, and the responsibility, to right the wrongs thrust upon our nation and the world by gung-ho, war-mongering right-wingers who loudly proclaimed everyone who questioned our involvement in Iraq as anti-patriotic, weak and anti-God. The GOP got what it deserved: a boot in the keester. Now it's the Democrats' responsibility NOT TO SCREW UP this chance to take back the White House in two years.

[daviduk-2009]

Now that you have given Bush a kick up the backside, would you respectfully take Blair on a continuous lecture tour of America.....Please !!
Bush could go with him, what a double act, they could explain what their next plan is for saving humanity, sing "Pennies From Heaven" and maybe give the audience a recipe for Humble Pie....some bloody chance.
Dave UK

[usawatchman]

If it ends up being business as usual...

I 'm not sure I voted for PELSOSI...
I thought I voted for IMPEACHMENT

[usawatchman]

The Republicans are a %u201Cculture of corruption.%u201D

until the DEMOCRATS are elected

then PELSOSI says they are going to work with the REPUBLICANS...


%u201Cculture of corruption.%u201D insinuates CRIMES have been COMMITTED
and NOW people need to go to JAIL...

MY Constitutional rights were VIOLATED
by the highest court in the land (and those below it)

==========
The COURTS and GOVERNMENT are CORRUPT
==========
It better NOT be BUSINESS a USUAL

WE NEED IMPEACHMENT OF SOME OF THESE JUDGES
in the SUPREME and other US COURTS

UNITED STATES SUPREME COURT
James B. Veasaw v. Cari M. Domingues,et al.
No: 05-1467

Securities and Exchange Commission was giving away and/or selling Govt. jobs, and Government employees commit CRIMES against the
people (me and others) Perjury, mail/wire fraud, conspiracy, obstruction of justice, tampering with evidence...etc and the COURTS
(US SUPREME COURT!) were helping them it COVER UP..!
=============
Do you know why they call it CIVIL COURT ?

Because Gentlemen thought there had to be
a better way to settle disputes other than with VIOLENCE

When the COURTS are CORRUPT
You no longer have a CIVIL SOCIETY

You now have a TYRANNY..

[diamtool]

Tread carefully Democrats! Do not accept the smiling faces and outstretched hands of these corrupt scoundrels you have DEFEATED. They told your fellow countrymen that you were nothing but traitors and cowards, and they meant
it.
They have looted your treasury and sent your brave young men to die needlessly, while denying your patriotism because you questioned their
radical ideas. Their ideas have been failures. They will never admit it.
Rule with strength and demand accountability for these failures.
NEVER FORGET how resolute, defiant, stubborn and ruthless the right wing has been in advancing the agendas of corporations, special interests, and big government's raw power along with their own perpetuity and greed.
This is how resolute and ruthless you must now be in defending the Americans who have made you their best hope.
Impeach Cheney First.