Smackdown! By Independents & Moderates

Dick Meyer: Exit Polls Show They Held The Key To 2006's Election Results

(CBS)  This commentary was written by CBSNews.com's Dick Meyer.

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On Election Day 2006, American voters did almost exactly what history would predict: giving a president in the sixth year of his administration a serious smackdown, as an electorate wary of politicians and parties hedged its bets and chose a divided government.

Since World War II, the parties that controlled the White House for two terms have lost an average of 29 House seats and six Senate seats in their second midterm elections.

This election fits tidily into that pattern. President Bush bucked another ubiquitous trap of modern presidents when he actually picked up Congressional seats for his party in the 2002 midterms, a little more than a year after 9/11. This year his luck ran out.

President Bush may have run into another historical buzz saw this year: the voters' predilection for divided government. Since Richard Nixon was elected in 1968, there have been only ten years in which one party controlled the White House and both chambers of Congress.

While the Republicans' losses this year are not any kind of historical aberration, it is clear that voters were voting on national issues and soundly protesting President Bush and his party. In CBS News exit polls, fully 60 percent said that national, not local, issues determined their vote. And 59 percent said they were either dissatisfied or angry with the Bush administration.

This election in large part was - as the Republicans had feared and the Democrats hoped - a referendum on President Bush. And President Bush lost.

Does this mean that the president will be a lame duck for his remaining two years?

Not necessarily. First of all, it's not like the president has been flying high for the past two or three years.

Support for the war in Iraq and Mr. Bush's national security policy has been steadily eroding in the electorate and Congress, where relatively little has been accomplished lately, and the most ambitious parts of the Bush domestic agenda have been held in check by Democrats and divisions in his own party.

Another thing to consider: sometimes, after large "Throw the bums out!" elections, moments of bipartisanship emerge.

"The first reaction after Democrats were wiped out in '94 was that it would be the end of the presidency for Clinton," said Norm Ornstein, a Congressional scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative but officially non-partisan think tank. "But it ended up being a savior. Things got done."

After the GOP 1994 landslide, for example, Republicans worked with President Clinton to pass welfare reform legislation that had been debated for years.

That bipartisan moment was brief and only a few years later, the country was embroiled in impeachment hearings.

Conditions for cooperation are not exactly ripe now. "Bush will also have to work with Democratic leaders who don't like him and don't trust him," said Ornstein. "The feeling is mutual."

The events of Sept. 11, 2001, failed to generate a prolonged period of bipartisan cooperation and the hard truth is that it's difficult to envision a sustained period of pragmatic harmony emerging from what has been one of the nastiest midterm elections on record.

The Center for Responsive Politics estimates that $2.6 billion was spent on this election, much of it on television advertising and much of that on negative ads. And this year's negative ads were some of the dirtiest ever.

Soon-to-be Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may have a hard time bringing her party to the bargaining table.

"Pelosi will have a full-time job just keeping her caucus together," said Harrison Hickman, a Democratic pollster and CBS News consultant. "The Democrats are badly fractured on fundamental issues. The leadership is very much further to the left than the members."

The danger is that the campaign of '06 will simply continue under the name of "government." Many Democrats, for example, are dead set on a new round of aggressive hearings about everything from pre-war intelligence to homeland security to the hunt for Osama bin Laden. The theater of Grand Congressional Inquisitions is generally an enemy of statesmanship.

And when it comes to the issue Democrats rode to victory on – opposition to the war in Iraq – there are no easy fixes or popular votes. "The Democrats now have to demonstrate they can get stuff done," Republican pollster Linda Divall, a consultant for CBS News, observed as the election results rolled in. "Especially on Iraq, which a lot of Democrats ran on, they have no solution, and now they will have to present some."

If the Democrats do end up with control of the Senate, the pressure to cooperate with the White House will be even greater.

The results of this election could convince politicians of both parties that cooperation, oddly enough, would be in their self-interest.

Why? Because exit polls show there's a large chunk of the electorate that is moderate, independent-minded and turned off by partisanship. In exit polls, 47 percent of voters described their views as moderate, 21 percent liberal and 32 percent conservative. And 61 percent of the moderates voted Democratic this year.

On party identification, 26 percent said they're Independent, which is in line with recent elections. But this year, Independents went Democratic by a 57-39 margin. That's what gave the day to Democrats. In the 2002 midterm, by contrast, Independents went Republican in a 48-45 split.

The bottom line: candidates ignore the middle and nonpartisan at their own peril.

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Dick Meyer is the editorial director of CBSNews.com, based in Washington.

E-mail questions, comments, complaints, arguments and ideas to
Against the Grain. We will publish some of the interesting (and civil) ones, sometimes in edited form.

[soxperk]

Great title. Laura Bush v. Nancy Pelosi in a 3 fall cage match? Wonder how Dubya and the Crew feel about a liberal female Speaker or the House now only two heart beats removed away from the Oval Office? The "on deck' batter (Cheney) has a bad heart too. Today is my 30th anniversary of federal government employment and the election returns are a nice gift. Back in Illinois, we elected another Governor who seems headed toward the hoosgow. Don't they ever learn. Keep up the good work and GO Bears.

[erichsh]

It will be fascinating to see what the Democrats actually do, because their entire campaign was based on what they were against. Sorry to dissapoint the lefties, but "waterboarding" Bush is not an option. After they've beaten up their favorite whipping boys by holding a few hearings, what's next? I haven't heard much by way of policy initiatives from Democrats before the election - no, the best they could do (as is the case with most left-wing bloggers) is to Bash Bush. Now they have to either put up or shut up. Might not be a bad thing after all.

[bluestardad]

The fix is on in Montana some of those counties have still not turned in any vote counts! Webb Beats Allen that is great. But otherwise a wonderful night! By By Texas Dicktater policies!

[exusmcsgt]

The more people see of Bush and his neocons, the less they like it. Their arrogance has been their downfall. They have nothing to be arrogant about now, do they?

[alpmeadows]

I haven't heard one thing that the Dem's plan to do that'd make a greater change. The article mentions folks unhappy about the nation, not their local scene. It'll be very interesting to see a nation become satisfied as a whole when history shows that to lack reality. At least now the criticism will be shared. Pelosi needs to loose the dark-red lipstick and makeup and show her true face....

[ademeyer]

I don't want the House Democrats to cooperate with the Bush administration. I want them to investigate where our money went, who illegally profited from this war, and I want them to force Rumsfeld to resign. If I wanted business as usual, everybody kow towing to Bush, I would have voted for the Republicans.

[Syndicate]

The dems didn't when because they were dems they won because they were not republicans. The Money goes where the money goes. The money goes down that endless pit called beuracracy. Beuracracy is the greatest danger to america more than any terrorist. Two exaples Katrina and Iraq. Both were bungled by the beuracratic monster called Government. Bush's sin is not controlling the beuracracy. You have to get down there with it and get dirty wrestling it into submission. Ever been to DMV.

[alabamyndpnd]

If you can't spell it, don't talk about it.

It's bureaucracy

[mjv2944]

OK dems, DON'T SCREW IT UP!!!!!!! Nows your chance to shine, but my hopes are not very high as you were a part to the most corrupt, personal liberty stealing, lieing, cheating do nothing congress in our history. Don't forget, we will be voting again in '08. We will be watching. Hope you watched and learned from this election, if not YOU'LL BE OUT!!!!

[tejasdemo]

Ademeyer,

You took the words right out of my mouth !

The hell with cooperating with Bush. Rumsfeld out-like everybody in the country as well as the military has been saying for a year.

The corruption started with Bush and Cheney.

It aint time to make nice.

[usawatchman]

The bottom line: candidates ignore the middle and nonpartisan at their own peril.

well said *** Meyer.

[usawatchman]

If you can't spell it, don't talk about it.
It's bureaucracy
Posted by alabamyndpnd at 11:21 AM : Nov 08, 2006

===========
alabamyndpnd
No one like a MORON,
you knew what they were trying to say

sometime we forget to spell check
I'm sure not going to flush a fellow country man
because of their spelling
if they are honest and can shoot strait.
I will give them the benefit of the doubt...!

[usawatchman]

PEOPLE BUY YOUR

GUNS & AMMUNITION

WHILE YOU STILL CAN..!

(Don't foget food too - 2-3 yrs)

[lfitts1]

Instead of discussing issues--we have people correcting spelling--there is no spellcheck on this server!!

As for USAwatchman--I think the arguement is that we have to work together and that life is a team sport--not let us hoard guns--this may be scarier than the terrorist and the fascist islamics!!!

[lumaj]

I would, if I may, like to point out that only 21 percent of the vote was liberals and 32 percent conservatives because we were both turned off by our respective parties. Either party can win when presenting a cogent, articulate, and compelling argument to their base. This year the Republicans took a beating because they forgot that, not because the middle matters so much. 2000 and 2004 shows what can be done with an excited Conservative base.

[clestes-2009]

Oh boy mjv2944, we are shaking in our collective boots. Considering the mess the rep have made of everything they touched in the last 6 years, anything done will be an improvement over the "stay the course".

[pendragon679]

It occurs to me that the real issue here isn't who won or lost. Rather, it appears that for the first time in a LONG time, those of us in the CENTER were able to make our voices heard above the inflammatory & strident screeching of the howler monkeys to the left & right. Yes, the war in Iraq was an important, possibly defining, issue in this election. BUT, the great mass of Americans are more concerned with issues that affect them directly: the minimum wage, fair tax policies, keeping Social Security, prescription drugs, educating our children, protecting our jobs, protecting our borders, etc. The extremists to either side have done little or nothing to address these important issues. Now, with true balance in our government, perhaps we'll see some effort made to at least BEGIN the important work that needs to be done.

[emhawks]

To pendragon679:
A great post; I agree completely!
GOD BLESS AMERICA! THE GREATEST COUNTRY ON EARTH! AND THE GREATEST PEOPLE ON EARTH!

[sunshine_2]

The Voice of America through Voting. Bless The Servicemen & Women that keep making it possible adn sacred.
The best Government we can have is the Intended Split government, When No one Party Rules it all. President Bush and The Republican PartyOnly proved it again. Whne American government has no Balance it ends up with too many foxes watching the hen hose & trying to keep the "good foxes in office".
Occasionally the moderate voices do speak out loudly and leave the "favored boy" behind when he shows he is not delievring the Promised Land. President Bush only got into Office by way of the Courts the First trip, & narrowly got in on his second bid. His Second term was doomed before we went to Iraq, because of the biggoted hatred he continued to slinig around so easily as Our President. Separating America and the world as "Us or Them".
The Republican Majority was set to fall, Mr. Bush only pushed it faster. Fear Tactics wont work forever, and Amrericans tire of being told "how complicated it all is for us to understand."
I guess we Americans are not as stupid as some politicians may have thought.

[sunshine_2]

Now it is time to allow the Democrats to discuss actually Funding "no child left behind", "raising the minimum wage (left in state for 10 + years)", "repeal some of the arragoant "good ole boy tax reductions for good ole rich boys/girls, big business and Oil Companies".
It is a time to look at so ... ignored Domestic Social Issues without considering a "gay bashing" Constutional Ammendmant (Federally Definging Marriage "As Bush Seesit"), and put bakc into play some spending oversight, that were a part of the Clinton Administraation.
Only during the 2nd Bush Administration was there ever a house rule that required: all legislation to have a Majority Favor Of the Major Party In Control ... that meant that if your werent on the indside, your voice was not heard. Moderated Republicans did not have any say in any affiars and it stailmated the Congeress and prevented any debate. Negotiating with the enemy (Dems) was forbidden. I hope that the Light of Day brings change ... & depbate and with that we have hope for some progress.