Will Exit Polls Win On Election Night?

Polls Gear Up For Their Big Day, With Rafts Of Questions For Tuesday's Voters

(CBS)  It may seem unlikely, but on Tuesday the offices above an East Coast antique store will be the epicenter of American politics.

Joe Lenski will know the election's results before almost anybody, reports CBS News correspondent Russ Mitchell. His company, Edison Media Research, gathers the exit poll information used by a consortium of TV networks and the Associated Press to help quickly determine who won and why.

"We will be at 1000 polling locations and we will interview more than 100,000 people," Lenski tells Mitchell.

The process begins with surveys conducted outside polling places.

Three times a day that info is called into headquarters and eventually funneled to organizations like CBS News, where it's dissected by CBS News Director of Surveys Kathleen Frankovic.

"For example, what was the biggest issue on the voters' minds?" says Frankovic. "Were there any major demographic differences in how people voted?"

But in recent years exit polling has been at the center of controversy.

In 2000 bad polling data added to the confusion over who carried Florida. Two years later the same outfit —Voter News Service — had a crippling computer glitch.

Lenski's group took over for 2004 but young pollsters tended to interview young voters, skewing the results. By mid-day, preliminary exit poll data leaked out to the blogosphere, giving the false impression that Senator John Kerry would be President.

"And that is how exit polling got the reputation for having been very wrong when they were a little wrong," says Mark Blumenthal, editor of Pollster.com.

Mark Blumenthal blogs on his website.

"There is a vacuum on elections day in which people are desperate to find out what happened," adds Blumenthal.

Now they'll have to wait even longer. This year exit poll info will be withheld from the consortium until 5 p.m. Eastern time.

"We're going to be extraordinarily careful about what we say about an outcome," says Frankovic.

Lenski's team has also shortened the questionnaire, improved pollster training, and moved them closer to voting areas to improve accuracy.

But predicting election results is an inexact science.

"But we learn year after year and we look at our models and re-evaluate every years," Lenski points out.

It'll be up to the public and polling wonks to pick apart the data in the weeks and months to come.

"You don't do this unless you get excited by looking at data, looking at numbers and information," says CBS' Frankovic. "You learn something new every time."

Another thing that pollsters are learning is that it will not get easier to gather exit poll data. Nearly 20 percent of voters now cast their ballot by mail, and that number will continue to grow.

If polls are wrong anywhere in the world,that country (and ours) yells "FOUL!" In THIS country,since 2000,we accept it as the polls are wrong,even though deep down we all know that's not true.
I doubt they'll let the dems win-it would mean impeachment,jail,and finding out what they REALLY do.

[toddmcmechen]

The polls are accurate, the elections are rigged.

Bush would lied about intelligence to invade Iraq, torture and secret jails, Medicare costs, etc, why would he hesitate to conspire with the right-wing electronic voting machine cartels and people like Kenneth Blackwell and Kathrine Harris to rig the elections?

[rmlaw402]

The exit polls were wrong in Florida in 2000?
Give me a break. They just didn't know how many votes Jeb, the state polica and Harris had managed to not count or manipulate. Right, it's the exit polls. I buy that.

[fallngempire]

2 points:

1) Exit polls are accurate. The end. There is a long scientific history of exit polling and it's high degree of mathmatical accuracy, but certain interest groups want Americans to believe that the exit polls have recently started to become inaccurate -- They have not, the election process has become corrupted.

2) Exit polls conducted more than 100 feet away from a polling place are NOT accurate. There are numerous examples on the books of Republicans (especially in FL) trying to enact legislation to force exit pollers to move distances greater than 100 feet away. Why? Because they want to discredit exit polls and cheat.

Democracy doesn't last forever guys. If you want it to die soon, pretend none of what I just said is important.

[mrwhitey3]

The elections are rigged and everybody knows it. They are holding back the exit poll data until the election fixers have done their stuff and then they will adjust the exit poll data so they do not have the big credibility gaps of the past since Diebold started hacking the vote and the Zionist have started tallying them.

America is getting pissed off and people are calling for armed revolution. If this election gets hacked, I would not be surprised to see that. We are tired of being controlled by Zionist and they will get what they deserve.

[fallngempire]

Freepers pretending to be anti-semites make lame CBS trolls.

[newsthought1]

If you see voting irregularities at your local polling place- like malfunctions, people turned away, not enough ballots or machines, huge lines, or voter intimidation- GRAB A CAMERA AND RECORD THE PROBLEM. The following website will be collecting and reporting the problems:

http://videothevote.org/

Their promo video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v
=DaEECHjWptU


HERE IS THE REAL STORY ON THE DIEBOLD MACHINES-
Princeton University Security Analysis of the Diebold AccuVote-TS Voting Machine- How it could be used to steal votes!!:

http://www.youtube.com/watch
?v=UGQPxsigQIM

The republicans are historically FAMOUS for dirty tricks- and they are desperate. Expect trouble, and be vigilant and strong.

[searingtruth]

"Having a certain familiarity with the subject, being a digital design engineer for more than two decades myself, I can certify that if electronic voting machines have not been dramatically compromised in favor of those in power, a miracle has indeed occurred."
SearingTruth

"Republicans are in a unique historical position. They are the first group of people raised on this land, who call themselves Americans, that openly proclaim the virtues of torture, secret prisons, extrajudicial abduction, universal surveillance, and dictatorial government."
SearingTruth

A Future of the Brave - www.searingtruth.com

[olebd]

I fully expect there to be a melee of defeated politicians asking for re-counts all over the country. Voting scandal and controversy all conjured up by fat cat republicans grasping for the final piece of pie. Only when there is nothing but ruin left will they cut and run....playing their violins amid the flames.

[bluestardad]

Be Ever Vigilant. Bush and Rove will do anything to stay in power up to an including flooding key districts with fake absentee ballots tampering with electronic voting machines, and bussing in voters who are not from the districts to vote, or even starting another war with and suspending civil liberties postponing the mid term vote. There is a great possibility for this administration to tamper with the electronic voting machines to the point that very subtle differences will take place in Key races just enough to tip the vote in their favor but not enough to cause a full scale American Revolution leaving some doubt, but just enough to throw key races in the Republican Favor. Watch out for this election coup.

[mjv2944]

They should outlaw exit polls and all politicians after two terms.

[huskerarmy]

Exit polls were always very accurate until the neo-cons came into power. That's a strange phenom to say the least. I would like to hear a coherent explanation for why this might be happening?

[grumpas]

JaneyMcGreev is a study in what is wrong with the Republican party! All one has to do is listen to her and know instantly why a lot of us quit voting Republican! They are mean-spirited to the point of being rude and obnoxious! It's a barage of lies everytime one of their commercial's comes on! The real sad part about it so many people are still buying their slop! They should have figured out years ago what these people are! I did! They have stolen or indulged in malfeasance every election since 2000! I am not certain it wasn't going on before that! I have no doubts this won't be a fair election again! I heard Bush making a speech in Georgia last night on CNN as I flipped by it! He was railing against Gay marriage! It is truly sad in a country with as many problems as we have this is all the man can talk about! What is worse the Christian's will eat it up once more! They somehow manage to overlook his corruption, lies, greed and outright criminal behavior to vote Republican's back into office! It tells me a lot about the average Christian's morality!

[getcentered]

I HOPE:
The centered people, the moderates, are going to vote smart after CAREFUL assessment of the options. Which in this case is wiping out the GOP control over our government.
The GOP/Conservative/Republican movement, failing in almost every aspect of governing our country is a reality, and a travesty. To have a strong voter base they need to hide their incompetence, and make the public think, "things would be WORSE with a evil Democrat". So what we're going to see and hear in the next elections is the GOP doing everything in their power to make ALL Democrats look like, terrorist loving, abortionist, atheists.
Democrats tend to be more centered. Republicans lean hard to one side, which in my mind shows that the GOP is a minority. So the GOP needs to create differences between us in order to pull voters from the other side. What this means for us in the coming elections is we are going to hear allot of things being repeated over and over again by the "Talking Point Pushing Republicans" orchestrated by the REAL President, Karl Rove. The goal is to KILL debate, and CREATE baseless and "simple", hard-fast opinions that get driven into the minds of Americans through repetition. Like with marketing, the people fall in line to buy the *** car from Ford that guzzles gas and breaks every 6 months. Willful ignorance is created in the minds of the public through sensationalism and repetition.
How will you fall in line? Will you vote with a centered mind, or an ignorant one?

[getcentered]

"Republicans are in a unique historical position. They are the first group of people raised on this land, who call themselves Americans, that openly proclaim the virtues of torture, secret prisons, extrajudicial abduction, universal surveillance, and dictatorial government."

........ouch Searing Truth, NICE.

[reddboots]

Reading these posts is like sitting in a playground at recess. There are posts here that exclaim that of course the Republicans will cheat, they lack all sense of honesty, and that JaneyMcGreev is mean-spirited and rude. Have you looked at all of the posts? I think most of you are mean-spirited and rude. I can't believe that the posting Dems (an assumption I've made) can really hold their party in such high esteem. What short memories we have! Lack of honesty seems to be a prerequisite for political life, and it doesn't seem to matter to which party you belong. So get off your soap box when the topic is honesty in politics.

I can't believe that you are naive enough to think that the Democrats are that different from those evil Republicans! How can they be? Their survival depends on exactly the same thing. Are you really that naive?

As long as we maintain the 2-party system that is controlled on both sides of the aisle by big money/power hungry machines, nothing will change. Why should it?

(BTW, for those of you stamping your feet and screaming that I'm one of those evil ones. I am a Democrat. Not necessarily proud of it, but I don't think I would be proud if I were registered with the other party either.)

[huskerarmy]

Redboots,

You haven't been around here much if you have trouble with people saying that Jane McGreedy is "mean-spirited." She is in fact hateful. She cannot refer to a liberal in any other way then as a fascist. And she has no ability to label anyone who doesn't support the Iraq war as anything other than "cowards," veterans included. It's easy to make blanket statements like "both sides are equally bad." In fact it's one of the more clever and stealthy of the GOP's tactics this year, i.e. - stay with the devil that you already know... And historically the Dems are hardly the party of innocence and light; although in truth the GOP does always seems to top the Dems when it comes to corruption and negativity. Regardless, what we are seeing now is an unpresidented low for political corruption and chronyism. People are mad. I consider myself a liberal first, and a Dem by default. Regardless, I'm hoping for a Democratic landslide in this election.

P.S. - How did your boots get "red?" Just wondering...

[gunnerv1]

I love exit polls- when ever I'm asked how I voted, I always tell them that I'm a Hard leaning Democrat. Then I giggle to myself when I get into my car because I usally (99%) vote stright ticket GOP.

[gunnerv1]

Remember Chicago, Vote early and vote often.

[huskerarmy]

Remember Florida and Ohio, save your paper receipt... Oh yea, the GOP leadership won't let that bill come up for a vote...

[laurieleemoo]

hey did you all hear the democrats had dead people voting during early voting? Boy, I think I'll bring the ghostbusters with me when I go----those dems are scary people bringing DEAD people with them to the polls! Yeah, I heard 10,000 dead people registered and 1,000 of them voted.

[reddboots]

Huskerarmy,

I bought 'em that way. Thanks for asking. I'm not a new kid on the block, and I agree wholeheartedly that McGreedy fits in the mean-spirited category with the rest of them. I also seem to be in the Dem category by default. We're talking about varying degrees in the loss of integrity, but to read these posts you'd think that all of the Democrats have earned white robes and wings.

[huskerarmy]

I challenge you neo-cons to come off of the hate- filled projections and propaganda to explain to the American voter a few things:

1. Why has the NIA declared Iraq a cause celeb and recruiting bonanza for terrorists?
2. How does the GOP congress justify giving themselves a raise every year but hasn't been able to raise the minimum wage since Bush has been in office?
3. How are exporting jobs and a burgeoning federal debt good for America?
4. Why do the top 2% of tax payers deserve a tax cut in a time of war?
5. Why does Halliburton deserve no-bid contracts in Iraq and New Orleans?
6. Why do D. Chaney and big Oil Company executives get to write the energy policy for America?
7. What makes a GOP majority more important than getting a pedophile away from Congressional pages?
8. Why does your party run racist ads in the South?
9. How does putting our troops in the middle of a civil war make us safer at home?
10. Abramoff, Cunningham, DeLay, Reed, Frist... the list of GOP scandals is vast. What's up with that?

[huskerarmy]

"hey did you all hear the democrats had dead people voting during early voting?"

Get with the times Laurieleemoo. If you want to steal an election, you don't need dead people. The Dibold computers can vote as often as they are programmed to... Why not ask the GOP leadership why they won't let the bill to require a paper record come up for a vote?

[frankly6]

Be prepared for the exit polls to, once again, disagree with the electronic voting machine results.
Why do you think the GOP refuses to do an investigation into these machines and their proven problems? Why do you think the GOP refuse to require these machines to print a paper tally? Rush was on today saying that the GOP have come back and completely reversed the negative polling trends. He's probably trying to prepare people for a vote flip.

[huskerarmy]

The latest polling shows men, women and minorities favoring the Dems by 65% to 35%. However, computers are favoring the GOP by a very wide margin, 99.9% with a margin of error .1%.

[toddmcmechen]

Do you trust the shadowy companies that make the voting machines?

The root of my mistrust starts in 1980 with a voting machine company called Datamark, which was funded by Christian Evangelical Howard Ahmanson, who also funded Republican projects such as the the Heritage foundation, Discovery Institute (an anti-Darwinism foundation), as well as and funding investigations into Clinton%u2019s indiscretions and Vince Foster%u2019s suicide. Datamark was run by the Uurosevich brothers.

Datamark became AIS, the same AIS that afforded Senator/AIS shareholder Chuch Hagel his statisticly improbable 1996 win in Nebraska. Eventually AIS split into ES&S and Diebold elections divison, but One Urosevich brothwer runs ES&S and the other runs Diebold. It's all the same crazy right-wingers, but they are now counting 75% of the votes with an insecure proprietary application written by a convicted serial embezzler (23 counts -Jeff Dean)in Microsoft's Access program.

[mh4cbs1]

The American People are finally waking up to understand that the BUSH agenda of:
FEAR
HATE
LIES
9-11 EXPLOTATION
WAR
PLUNDER
is one massive DISASTER.

STOP the BUSH fascism now while we still can! You think I overstate the situation we are in? Read on...

In case you didn't notice (of course CBS gave it ZERO converage), Bush signed HR5122, Public Law 109-364 into effect in October. This law basically revises the Insurrection Act and the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878, allowing Bush (the "War President") to declare martial law. He may need this if the NeoCons are planing to steal this election with their DieBold machines!

Section 1076 entitled, "Use of the Armed Forces in Major Public Emergencies." Section 333, "Major public emergencies; interference with State and Federal law" states that "the President may employ the armed forces, including the National Guard in Federal service, to restore public order and enforce the laws of the United States when, as a result of [blah, blah, blah] or other condition in any State, the President determines that domestic violence has occurred to such an extent that the constituted authorities of the State or possession are incapable of ("refuse" or "fail" in) maintaining public order, "in order to suppress, in any State, any insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination, or conspiracy."

Cutting the fluff: Bush can use the military right here at home for ANY incident where HE determines it is needed to maintain public order.

[mh4cbs1]

Go ahead and vote for Demcorats. It won't matter.

Even if our Diebold machines don't give us all the victories we'd like (can't be too obvious about it), we will prevail in the end.

After all, we made Bush the 'War President'. First we scared the people so they say "take my freedom, just protect me!". And we are - we even sneaked in legislation so Bush can declare martial law. The media didn't even notice it!

We will make Democrats look like terrorist sympathizers (our media will be eager to do it, and be rewarded with mergers and tax breaks). Don't believe it? Look what we did to John Kerry, a purple heart combat veteran. Made him look like a coward compared to our heroic George Bush (who was a party boy in Alabama while sitting out the Vietnam War!).

So you stupid middleclass suckers -- we scare you then we rob you blind. We even get you to fight our wars for us! We almost got away with destroying your precious Social Security - maybe next time.

I make millions each year and I pay a lower rate than almost all of you. Its hilarious! And if you even squeak about it, we call it "class warfare" and the media shuts you up. Maybe we'll let you raise the minimum wage from $5/hr to $6/hr -- it won't make a difference, but its more fun to see how low we can keep it.

Oh well, have fun in your little election, we don't care, we'll just bribe those spineless Democrats if they win a few elections...

[marcelde]

"D Day" IS NOW DEMOCRATIC DAY!

IT IS NO LONGER Tom "DE LAY" DAY.

IT IS A DAY TOO LONG DELAY ED.

[marcelde]

BRITISH BELIEVE BUSH IS MORE DANGEROUS THAN KIM JONG-IL ==

By Julian Glover
The Guardian UK

Friday 03 November 2006

US allies think Washington threat to world peace. CONSIDER THE RECENT SECURITY BREACH AT LOS ALAMOS! ==

Only bin Laden feared more in United Kingdom. BUT DON%u2019T WORRY AS HE PROBABLY DID NOT HAVE DIRECT ACCESS TO LOS ALAMOS.

The survey has been carried out by the Guardian in Britain and leading international polls.

It exposes high levels of distrust. In Britain, 69% of those
questioned say they believe US policy has made the world less safe
since 2001, with only 7% thinking action in Iraq and Afghanistan has
increased global security.

The finding is mirrored in America's immediate northern and southern
neighbours, Canada and Mexico, with 62% of Canadians and 57% of
Mexicans saying the world has become more dangerous because of US
policy.

Voters in three of the four countries surveyed also overwhelmingly
reject the decision to invade Iraq, with only Israeli voters in
favour, 59% to 34% against.

In Britain 71% of voters now say the invasion was unjustified, a view
shared by 89% of Mexicans and 73% of Canadians. Canada is a Nato
member whose troops are in action in Afghanistan. Neither do voters
think America has helped advance democracy in developing countries,
one of the justifications for deposing Saddam Hussein. Only 11% of
Britons and 28% of Israelis think that has happened.

[marcelde]

I had to steal this great huskerarmy posting:

"The latest polling shows men, women and minorities favoring the Dems by 65% to 35%. However, computers are favoring the GOP by a very wide margin, 99.9% with a margin of error .1%.
Posted by huskerarmy at 05:04 PM : Nov 06, 2006

[marcelde]

I had to steal this great huskerarmy posting:

"The latest polling shows men, women and minorities favoring the Dems by 65% to 35%. However, computers are favoring the GOP by a very wide margin, 99.9% with a margin of error .1%.
Posted by huskerarmy at 05:04 PM : Nov 06, 2006

[marcelde]

I had to steal this great huskerarmy posting:

"The latest polling shows men, women and minorities favoring the Dems by 65% to 35%. However, computers are favoring the GOP by a very wide margin, 99.9% with a margin of error .1%.
Posted by huskerarmy at 05:04 PM : Nov 06, 2006

[marcelde]

MEANWHILE, ON THIS ELECTION DAY, BUSH'S WAR ON IRAQ OPENS FURTHER THE PROVERBIAL "PANDORA'S BOX" OF CIVIL WAR WHERE THERE IS NO WINNING, BUT ONLY LOSING.

Two mortar shells slammed into a coffee shop in a Shiite neighborhood in north Baghdad late Tuesday, killing at least 14 people and wounding 16 others, police said.

The attack appeared to have been in response to mortar fire on a Sunni neighborhood across the Tigris River earlier in the day that killed seven people and wounded 25.