War Games In '99 Predicted Iraq Problems
Said Invasion Would Require 400,000 Troops — And Chaos Might Still Ensue
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An Iraqi man injured in a car bomb explosion near an electricity office grimaces at a hospital in Baghdad, Iraq, Thursday, Sept. 21, 2006. The explosion killed two people and injured nine, police said. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban)
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In its "Desert Crossing" games, 70 military, diplomatic and intelligence officials assumed the high troop levels would be needed to keep order, seal borders and take care of other security needs.
The documents came to light Saturday through a Freedom of Information Act request by the George Washington University's National Security Archive, an independent research institute and library.
"The conventional wisdom is the U.S. mistake in Iraq was not enough troops," said Thomas Blanton, the archive's director. "But the Desert Crossing war game in 1999 suggests we would have ended up with a failed state even with 400,000 troops on the ground."
There are currently about 144,000 U.S. troops in Iraq, down from a peak of about 160,000 in January.
A spokeswoman for U.S. Central Command, which sponsored the seminar and declassified the secret report in 2004, declined to comment Saturday because she was not familiar with the documents.
The war games looked at "worst case" and "most likely" scenarios after a war that removed then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from power. Some are similar to what actually occurred after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003:
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Reckless disregard for the research and lack of due dilligence.
The Generals were right all along, and were silenced by Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld on the urging from the top of the cabal -- Cheney and Bush
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Our country is controlled by idiots...
Goooooood Moooooorning Iraaaaak!!!
But it is impossible to suppose Bush did not know after US Army Gen. Erik Shinseki testified in public session of Congress about the military risks of Iraq and the need for massive troop levels.
Yet, as early as 2001, Bush was intent on invading Iraq-- damning the torpedoes of caution and reason. And in return for his sage and courageous warnings about Iraq, Gen. Shinseki got only pointed humiliation and browbeating from Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz, railroading him into retirement, as if to set an example to others who might stand in the way of the Bush regime.
All Bush wanted was a convincing pastiche of fear and an utterly contrived rationale of clear and present danger to US national security. Bush characteristically blamed others-- Tenet for supposed "intelligence failures" and Shinseki (via Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz) for false counsel-- rather than acknowledge it was he, alone, who fudged the facts about Iraq, and ignored his own generals and reasoned Pentagon warnings.
But it is impossible to suppose Bush did not know after US Army Gen. Erik Shinseki testified in public session of Congress about the military risks of Iraq and the need for massive troop levels.
Yet, as early as 2001, Bush was intent on invading Iraq-- damning the torpedoes of caution and reason. And in return for his sage and courageous warnings about Iraq, Gen. Shinseki got only pointed humiliation and browbeating from Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz, railroading him into retirement, as if to set an example to others who might stand in the way of the Bush regime.
All Bush wanted was a convincing pastiche of fear and an utterly contrived rationale of clear and present danger to US national security. Bush characteristically blamed others-- Tenet for supposed "intelligence failures" and Shinseki (via Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz) for false counsel-- rather than acknowledge it was he, alone, who fudged the facts about Iraq, and ignored his own generals and reasoned Pentagon warnings.
See link to original story about Gen. Shinseki-- http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/issues/iraq/attack/consequences/2003/0228pentagoncontra.htm
Arrogance never considers consequence or implications...
As more and more information begins to trickle out about the ineptitude, incompetence and corruption surrounding the Iraqi war I am wondering whether our legislature should not undertake a thorough investigation into the rationale for going to war (who knew what, when etc) .... Clearly, we now know that the administration was far better advised and informed than first thought...
The nation needs this for its healing... & goodness knows that the nearly 3,000 US troops and the orphans, widows & widowers that have been created in the wake of this war... deserve to know the truth...
So grave are the charges being levelled against this administration and so grevious the implications of its actions... that if indeed such an investigation uncovered gross misconduct in the prosecution of this war, then I GWB should be impeached... there can be no other option...
Such an action would serve as a warning to any other administration that would so carelessly commit the nations resources to war...
The decisions should have been left to those who know what they are doing - the Generals - not those who have no idea of what they are doing.
Unfortunately, the ethics of the corrupt and arrogant currently in power, especially when combined with the apathy of the sheep (so well protected by the Jaineys out there) and the oversight failures of our Constitutional safeguards (Congress, the press, etc.) make any investigation just as ineffectual as those that have already been conducted.
"Proud to be an American" is no longer as easy as it used to be. Our children will nnever know the pride and trust that we all once had, as the shameful, embarrassing and criminal actions of this administration may never be overcome.
I guess what I am thinking is that there are two types of investigation... the ones that took place before next Tuesday and the ones that will take place after next Tuesday... if you get my drift?
My only hope is that any new investigation is focused on uncovering the truth in a balanced non-partisan way... the investigation must be fully bi-partisan, open & transparent... we cannot afford to play politics, whilst our young men & women are being slaughtered on foreign fields...
If we truly want to honour our fallen (which is the constant refrain of this administration)... let them know why they died so that their loved ones may have peace...
I would not want to pre-judge the outcomes of any new investigation... but based an the drip-drip of new revelations coming out about pre-war preparation and planning... it will surely uncover failures at the highest levels of Government, destroy reputations & discredit ideologies...
Iraq has become a poisonous sore... and a cancer at the heart of our nation... for this, sun-light is the best disinfectant..
I have been saying this all along. OIL OIL OIL
Check bush it's oil all oil his company did not do good the bin laden family dumped money into it to keep it from bankruptcy the port deal it's all over oil
This same defect was revealed in Afghanistan when the decision was made to buy war lords for use in Tora Bora instead of sending coalition forces after Bin Laden. Everyone knows how well that strategy worked......
Anybody with any brains at all would listen to other people most of all his advisers.
But bush is so self centered he just can't do that, why is it that Powell and others quit or were fired.
If you don't agree you can't stay you forget I am the decider.
Fools like you should join Amnesty International and go to Iraq to try and influence the country to save this wonderful man's life.
Selah
The politics of fear, hatred, neighbor against neighbor and brother against brother is something that I only heard of in the context of the american civil war.
I never thought I'd live to see the day in which an attack on this country would be used to cement political and religious segregation of it's people, and used to wage war for economic gain.
Even when I did not vote for George W., I gave him my support after 9/11. I felt compeled (like most of us) to give him the chance to fight the righteous war in Afghanistan. I just could have never foreseen the lack of true leadership and the blunder after blunder after blunder coming from his cabinet.
So yes, I am saddened.
On the other hand I have no choice but to vow to fight his atrocious tactics by any pacific means, for as long as there is still such a thing as free speech in these "United" States of America, until such time as we as a people re-assert our most beloved values of honor, liberty and justice for all.
Until the time comes when we elect a government that represents all americans and not just one faction, we have no business leading the world.
The lessons learned from both actions are leave War to the Military and not politicians.
Michael Edwards
Texas
mwe3wm@hotmail.com
Did you forget that Rumsfeld in the Reagan/Bush era was a Saddam lover? Saddam was one of our favortie brutal dictators. How quickly you forget. We sold him massive quantities of weapons (making big $$$ for US corporations). We helped him wage war against Iran.
Better to have left Saddam where he was. Even Richard Perle, a PNAC darth vader, agrees to that now. So maybe the US government never should have stopped loving Saddam!
Is there any group here that wishes to harm our troops? If so, we are pulling EVERYONE out! If you can control ALL your people, we will stay and help rebuild your infrastructure and get your country livable again.
I know this will not happen, but wouldn't it be wonderful if our president cared that much about the troops for which he is CIC?
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by bluestardad
November 6, 2006 8:53 AM PST
- Heck of a Job Rummy, Stay the Course!
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